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VVIX

ridethepig | VIX Panic Cycle?📍 The main function of the VIX appears to be miles ahead of the relevant flows. In this sense, it itself tends to be mobile. And yet (for it has great vitality!) it is not rare to witness it display considerable activity. Namely: 1️⃣ From the initial ' Swing the Vix into Fed and Q close ' the Vix was prepared . 2️⃣ A certain elasticity, which shows itself in the 'Capitulation Waters' was appropriate to generate the energetic slingshot given the appropriate circumstance. 3️⃣ The journey looked so promising, connection breaks in Vol are usually one way express trains. Stay long. 4️⃣ If we can continue the advance in the absence of capitalism, we are set for a measured return on the expectation of normality but only with more clarity on the timing side. Once reality hits shore, the masses will realise they were sold a turd. 5️⃣ The home run!! A flawless (and serious contender for trade of the year btw) 600%+ swing from the 11/12 lows all the way to 85. Now to put the icing and sprinkles on top, we had to take care of business at the 85 highs. 6️⃣ ...here we are. After a round trip we are back to the strong support at 25 and just below the centre of the flow at 38. The power to develop knowingly here and systematically, unlike during the middle of Covid is to the buyers advantage. The effect of the cycle ending will convey more than one quarter's worth of damage. As soon as the stabilisers (stimulus) is turned off, we are heading for a Sovereign Debt Crisis .
CBOE:VIXLong
by ridethepig
11
Volatility of the VIX? It Hints A lot More Selling is ComingSomewhat of an oxymoron, the VVIX measures the volatility of the VIX and the VIX is the fear gauge of volatility on the SPX. When the VIX goes down, usually bulls cheer this as some sort of bottom, however, that is an amateur move. In reality, the VVIX continues to show very little to no signs of letting up other than simple retracements for more accumulation and therefore, the VIX will likely spike to 90-100+ as I stated a week ago. On March 11th (shown below), I predicted the VIX would break new records and easily surpass 90 with a reasonable probability of it reaching or surpassing 100. Remember, just because the VIX decreases this DOES NOT mean equities will rise or that a bottom has formed. This is extremely important and people must not make this crucial error in their analysis. -- Today we heard news of Powell panic cutting rates and entering QE (100 bps cut and 700B in QE) to start. In reality, there has never been in a time in history where rate cuts above 50 bps have ever eased the market - the complete opposite - it induces panic that the worst is on its way. The next step will be negative rates and yes it will happen. But be aware, when that is announced the US market will tank like you have never seen before. In the near-term we can expect fresh new lows in the US markets perhaps as early as Monday, March 16th (tomorrow). - zSplit
VLong
by PaulDeep19131
4
ridethepig | VIX Market Commentary 2020.02.23Here we are tracking the massive breakup in Vol; this is looking dangerous and is right on time with Coronavirus kicking in. This was forecast miles in advance (see charts below) and has followed the mapped flows flawlessly since the previous swing we began tracking earlier last year: The sweep of the lows was a textbook example of clearing the board to open up the runway towards 38 and 85. We can continue to just keep recycling positions in the same levels and same direction. The price drivers keep telling us that; US Equities will also receive a major hammer as they are complete dislocated from reality. Good luck all those in VIX from the lows... a flawless +60% position in the @ridethepig portfolio so far from the infamous "Capitulation Waters". Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
CBOE:VIXLong
by ridethepig
1
The creeping VIX-just what the fed orderedSlow & boring-just what the fed ordered (or printed). Our manufacturing data may be in the dumps but we're sure good at manufacturing lies and artificial markets. Volatility coiling up-watch for possible wave to (D) before retracement/sideways movement to (E). I want a solid test of upper trend line-Vix could blow through the roof or coil up for months until after apex of this triangle. For now, they're keeping a tight lid on this.. The circus is in town and we're all in it. (renko blocks not playable from tradingview ideas window - I'll update this idea by posting snapshots as price moves along or when I feel something significant is happening)
TVC:VIXLong
by gghsusa
2
ridethepig | VIX Market Commentary 2019.12.20A quick update to the Vix chart as we enter into the final important NY session of the year with quadruple witching. For those tracking the previous flows we remain in the same levels with the same targets and the same flows to track: After we cleared TP1 we ran out of steam and decided to trade the retrace back towards Capitulation territory. This was enough to sweep the stops and absorb the floor: We then got the spike in VVIX as it dislocated the from the flows while Vix remained comatose. This is an important highlight to make as we enter into year end with markets happy to trade the reflationary theme something that smells very very off; With 2s5s screaming recession and protectionism hijacking the world what could possibly go wrong? Tracking closely Vix today for the year end flows and 2020 positioning...We will update in depth the fundamentals and technicals 2020 maps for Vix over the holiday period. Thanks for keeping all the support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc! Best of luck those tracking VIX for signs of end of the cycle/reflationary 1H20 !!
CBOE:VIXLong
by ridethepig
8
VVIX cheap, long volatility ahead of FEDVVIX represents the volatility of the VIX indicator, more precisely its the 30 day expectation of the VIX index which is the expectation of implied volatility in the SPX in 30 days time. Read more on this on CBOE's website. VVIX is mean reverting in nature, as it is as index and non-tradable it represents this mean reversion without market expectation building this into its price directly, some expectation will be implied from VIX futures market - and that whole "tail wags the dog" argument. I believe the VVIX is unusually low as can be eyeballed by the chart I have created. Despite the SPX coming off its all time highs and global discussions on NIRP, economic slowdown, migrant crisis, Oil crisis etc... For me this implicitly represents an under pricing of volatility risk protection, I can backup this confidence with looking at market Junk bond demands and Puts & Calls Open interest on the S&P500, relatively low put volume especially around the current market price. I am expecting a pickup in volatility as we approach the FED March 16th rate decision and this presents an opportunity to purchase exposure to volatility then profit from its explosive nature if the future looks a little less clear cut.
VLong
by MarcusWilliamson
As VVIX approaches sub-77 VIX may go sub 12.50 like last summer.The VVIX (known as the "VIX of the VIX") makes its way down to under 77, watch for the VIX to go back under 12.50 like it did last summer. Is that a guarantee? Well - remember that VVIX measures the volatility of the VIX. If the VIX is getting less and less volatile (as the VVIX channel clearly shows it is) then one can expect that fact to be a product of lower volatility of the S&P500. All of this points to a run of the S&P until June / July. EDIT: noticed I failed to post the tandem view of my VVIX and VIX charts. Here is the VVIX.
CBOE:VIX
by codypd