BTC Bullish + Bearish PredictionsThis analysis is based on VWAP, one of the most definitive levels that determine the future trend direction.
Right now we are sitting well above the VWAP anchored to 1/13 where the pivot low for out most recent move up began. Depending on the price action, the strong overall sentiment for BTC is strong enough to take it past the 108k ATH, despite many technicals suggesting we are overdue for a large pullback down to the 70ks.
What needs to happen is for accumulation to happen between the 102k and 105k levels, and continue through to the ATH such that buyers can hold thru any pushback/resistance at 108K and 109k, the next resistance level. If it can push us through 109, then our next resistance will be at 111k and 113k, which is also the zone where I would guess the retracement from the next ATH may return to. We may top out at 113550, which is both a macro fib level and a stddev extension of the VWAP, if bullish sentiment is not strong enough. If it can break 113500, we may just go exponential to 125 or 128k, where it should retrace to 113K, or even shallower.
The bearish case is a fast run up past 108k, losing steam at 109k or 111k, consolidating for a short while between 109 and 105 where bears can build their positions and then take us back under 101k. There are key VWAP levels in black around 102k that if we break and close below, will almost certainly shift the odds towards going back down.
Ive included a second VWAP anchored to a more recent pivot low, where the value sits at 104950 currently, a break below may not necessarily spell doom for bulls but the price action between that level and the main VWAP around 102k may tell you something about the current bull/bear sentiment.
If you are bullish it would be wise to build your position below 105k whenever you have the chance, and to encourage the breakouts at 108 ATH, 109700, 111000-111500, and 113500. For bears you are looking for strong resistance showing up at 109750, then at around 111k, accumulating your shorts between 109k and 105k with the goal of breaking through 101k.
