CAT Swing Long ReversalCAT has a downtrend 10% from its 30-day high.
However, fundamentally the industrial is holding up quite well.
The downtrend was inverse parabolic accompanied with
an appropriate volume pattern showing 3X relative volume
This is sometimes called the retirement trade pattern
or V-type pattern. CAT has dropped to three standard
deviations below the anchored VWAP /
This makes it undervalued well below fair value.
I see this as a good setup for a long swing trade or a call options
contract with the expectation of a 50% retracement of a
10# drop or a 5% price target For the call options I will
target the anchored VWAP at a strike of $243 about 12 DTE.
Vwapbands
SPX Possible Short Entry If we push to 3860 or even 3900, I will consider entering a short position in this area. That yellow uptrend line is 10/13 low. So I'm thinking within the next couple hours we can jump above that upward trend line from the 10/13 low and then start to roll over before the end of the day. If we close today with a bullish candle, I'm going to continue to sit on my hands before I think about going Bullish. If I decide to get in around 3860 or 3900, I'm gonna put this out for 3-4 weeks, risk 2% of my portfolio. That would still give me enough time for the market to decide if it wants roll over. If it continues higher the coming weeks then I'll have to reassess and consider a Bullish plan.
I also flipped over to the daily chart and placed an Anchor VWAP at this years high. And if you see, we have entered into the bottom have of the bollinger band. I've seen this happen before where it hangs out towards the bottom before it caves in. Again, look at the reaction it had back at the beginning of June when we were hanging out between the 20 and 50 EMA. We were touching the bottom of the band width before it gapped down.
BTCUSDT 1HBitcoin has been maintaining the support I reported here of $18,239, despite the economic scenario and the big difference that a few hours can make, BTC support was respected. I believe the background is in this region.
Possible crossing of moving averages in the coming hours, which indicates a rise, with the RSI also indicating the cooling of selling forces. (be careful with the weekend seller profile).
SUPPORTS AND RESISTANCES:
S-18,238.73
S-18,682.83
S-18,911.55
S- 19,340.54
==============
R-19,748.08
R-19,937.92
R-20,344.22
Are We Done Yet?So, we have CHZUSD here, and it's still in an uptrend unlike a lot of the cryptos at the moment.
We're currently in a pullback at the moment, and the value is currently in what I think is a buy zone, based on my indicators. My instinct is that I should probably wait for a double bottom to form here and the MACD on the two hour to cross above zero, which should take maybe a day or two before making some higher highs.
As long as we stay above the VWAP center-line, that's when we get at least a third wave here, but I thought I'd ask you all if my analysis is sound. I'm about to head to bed because I'm not a robot, so we could well snap above or below the VWAP while I'm resting, so if I wanted to pre-empt that, is it a sound strategy to place a stop buy just above band one limits?
Probably not. Crypto tends to do the worst things while I'm in dreamland.
BTC and the 2020 VWAP: Clear Range and StairstepThis chart shows the Weekly BTC Price against the Decade VWAP (Since Jan1, 2020).
Deviation bands at .5, 1 and 2.
Previous patterns might indicate that the price will bounce to the .5 at around $38,500. Before descening again to the -.5 at $20,500.
Notable: the Century VWAP sits at about $22,500.
S&P 500 Sitting on Anchored VWAPS&P 500 ($SPY) sitting on the anchored VWAP. Decided to choose the starting point as the first time we hit current prices ($447). Investors are in the middle of a seesaw right now, a material movement in either direction, IMO, will decide which direction we go.
Arguments to the downside: no reason we should only be 5% off all-time highs when earnings growth peaked already, inflation still not under control, Fed full force ahead on monetary tightening, and geopolitical risks still not resolved.
Arguments to the upside: all of the downside risks are already known with strong certainty and markets are efficient so it should be priced in already. Corporates have great margins and pricing power so inflation should only hit smaller areas of the market (small and mid-caps).
Do we bounce and recover or gap down and continue lower?
My money is on lower, time will tell...
EURUSD (BUY)here the market tested many times the support line as it is shows in the chart which shows that the support line is very strong
the market after that breaks the vwap with an important volume in green and a wick
so i believe that this market will go on an uptrend looking for a bullish trend ( BUY EURUSD )
Situational Fluency | Are Markets Favorable For My Strategy?You may have heard the adage, make hay while the sun shines. In market terms, we might translate this to ... make (the most) money when conditions are favorable for your strategy.
The recent increased volatility yesterday, and last Monday 9/20, also increase the probability that range days will follow. In this video, I take a look at a VWAP Bands strategy (Stay IN Your Lane) that does very well under these conditions.
The primary indicator for the strategy shown in the video is called " VWAP Stdev Bands v2 Mod UPDATE" and is available in the public library on TradingView.
The Line in The SandWell this was an eventful week. Politics aside ES has sold off now 5 days in a row and sits right on top of the +1.5 std deviation of the yearly vwap.
Obviously I am leaning for towards a technical bounce before more selling but just in case we don't I am eyeing the 4341.50-4371.50 yellow area for a larger bounce. As time goes on that +1 std deviation will move up into that area as well.
If we get upside here I would look to the half back of this sell off which is funny enough around 4500.
Looking forward to seeing what happens here into the end of the year!
Tutorial | Lesson 2: Signals For Trading Session Volume & VWAPWelcome to Part 2 in the Video Idea Series on using the Volume Scripts in TradingView. On this Fed Day, fun day edition, I cover a few entry signals and/or levels for using Session Volume and a VWAP indicator available in the Public Library.
It's 10 minutes and stick around to the end as I mentioned a way to learn more about futures trading, and these strategies, in a risk-free trading account.
RIOT Stock - bullish momentum & the skyrocketing crypto movementA RANDOM TRADERS MONOLOGUE
If you ask me, we have a beautiful uptrend in the making and now is a good time to hop on the train, especially for riot. Skip to bottom to go to TA
First lets all remember: crypto is going INSANE, it is becoming super easy to mine, and this little golden nugget is one of the first blockchain financial platforms for crypto.
But what does that mean for me?
For those who do not like to trade crypto, but can't deny the crypto train, riot is a safe investment for the time being. You can even say it already has financial pairs that can be used as indicators, such as DXY, BTC, etc.
So do not bother trading crypto currency, begin investing in stock that is starting to become part of the crypto movement.
/
/
TECHICAL ANALYSIS
RSI shows a leg forming, as well as maintaining an RSI above 60, indicating buyers are ripe in the market.
MACD is showing a gap that will be soon indicating our next official direction with RIOT. The yellow trendline on the chart is my indicator to begin thinking of closing my current buy positions.
To confirm the uptrend, the MACD will show volume green and a bounce from the yellow trendline upwards. The RSI would have to confirm by getting a higher leg up while staying within the green trendline.
We can also see that we got a nice VWAP over the EMA and in the upper bands.
Keep Your Eyes on the Volume Behind the MovementThe Key to Success has Been Underneath Your Nose the Entire Time
The key detail that every new trader seems to miss is that volume ultimately controls price movements because the presence of adequate volume validates the price movement. If a price movement fails to be validated by adequate volume, then there is going to be an equal an opposite reaction. There exists a variable that satisfies both quantitative and fundamental analysts. That is the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) and it is complemented by the Volume Weighted Moving Average (VWMA). When you do not consider the weight of volume in price movements, you are at the mercy of manipulative, high volume whales that seek to sink Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) during times of low volume in the interest of accumulation of the asset.
VWAPs can be treated as the "true" price of an asset on any given resolution, but become less sensitive to change as you zoom out. These ever-shifting values can be treated as floors, in bullish times, and ceilings, during a bear market. You can always expect a "bounce" off of the VWAP in the opposite direction at least once as price attempts to cross over it. These resistance lines are useful to every audience, the soon-to-be long holders who would like to plan a decent entry, the short sellers trying to make a quick buck, and the swing traders who like to make money regardless of who controls the market. One should always keep in mind that price never strays too far from the VWAP before attempting to violently correct itself in the other direction.
There is a measure of movement around the VWAP, which we'll call volatility, and it masks the true price of the asset and its direction. By following the VWAP, you can see accurately whether the asset is going high or low. I'm using these customized bands to look for long entries (in the green or below) and short entries (in the red or above) to make short term profits to be accumulated in my spot balances. Ultimately, by building your position you can ensure a long-term profit but it doesn't mean too much if one simply never takes profit.
Longs can be slept on. Shorts must be monitored. Set a budget, craft a plan, and stick to it. Remember to remove your principal investment at some point to reduce your risk.
Happy Hunting!
- Patch Hemlock
Keep Your Eyes on the Volume Behind the MovementThe Key to Success has Been Underneath Your Nose the Entire Time
The key detail that every new trader seems to miss is that volume ultimately controls price movements because the presence of adequate volume validates the price movement. If a price movement fails to be validated by adequate volume , then there is going to be an equal an opposite reaction. There exists a variable that satisfies both quantitative and fundamental analysts. That is the Volume Weighted Average Price ( VWAP ) and it is complemented by the Volume Weighted Moving Average ( VWMA ). When you do not consider the weight of volume in price movements, you are at the mercy of manipulative, high volume whales that seek to sink Simple Moving Averages ( SMAs ) during times of low volume in the interest of accumulation of the asset.
VWAPs can be treated as the "true" price of an asset on any given resolution, but become less sensitive to change as you zoom out. These ever-shifting values can be treated as floors, in bullish times, and ceilings, during a bear market. You can always expect a "bounce" off of the VWAP in the opposite direction at least once as price attempts to cross over it. These resistance lines are useful to every audience, the soon-to-be long holders who would like to plan a decent entry, the short sellers trying to make a quick buck, and the swing traders who like to make money regardless of who controls the market. One should always keep in mind that price never strays too far from the VWAP before attempting to violently correct itself in the other direction.
There is a measure of movement around the VWAP , which we'll call volatility , and it masks the true price of the asset and its direction. By following the VWAP , you can see accurately whether the asset is going high or low. I'm using these customized bands to look for long entries (in the green or below) and short entries (in the red or above) to make short term profits to be accumulated in my spot balances. Ultimately, by building your position you can ensure a long-term profit but it doesn't mean too much if one simply never takes profit.
Longs can be slept on. Shorts must be monitored. Set a budget, craft a plan, and stick to it. Remember to remove your principal investment at some point to reduce your risk.
In a bull market, buy at the monthly VWAP (Purple Line) and in a bear market, sell there.
Happy Hunting!
- Patch Hemlock