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VIX - CASH Index during Summer Doldrum PivotThere is a substantial opportunity setting up for the Cash VIX, Calls are obviously higher into Friday's RT, but should be followed out to and through Feb 2023 at the 25 and 35 Levels. The Arbs are beginning to stretch the Bands to extremes, this almost always provides an outsized opportunity at Levels. 24.30 Was the July Futures Contract Support which traded 3 times within the 24-hour period prior to settlement. The August Blended Continous Contract failed its Support within the 25.80 to 29.30 implied range on the M1/M2 Settle. Protection is absent on longer-term Timeframes for Retail. VIX trading has been limited to Intra-Day scalping for the majority of Volumes. Support for Cash extends off the 4th pivot @ 21.25 and then to 20.425 where Entry should be targeted. Operators can bleed out VX this time of year and quietly accumulate out months, which is what they will do when it is time. ______________________________________________________________________ When the Levy Breaks the VX Complex will run back to All-Time Highs. Our next Crash to lower lows is setting up nicely. 44.44 is the implied Daily extension overhead, it remains valid as the Summer clubbing begins to unravel. Mean Reverting Indices is a relative comparison... VVIX is closing in on 83,58 pivot. Where do you get the best move based on VX... VIX CASH layup trade - IMHO. _______________________________________________________________________ Good Luck with entries ~!
CBOE:VIX
by HK_L61
2
Inside days on the cash VIX are typically a reversal sign A bearish or bullish candle followed by a day were the cash VIX opens & closes within the previous days candle AND are the opposite color are typically signs of a VIX reversal. IMO the very best signals are ones where the inside day is smack in the middle (this is based upon a visual) of the previous days open/close (the green arrows on this chart). However, the black arrows also produce reliable signals. Since Sept 1, 2021 (211 trading days) there have only been 19 signals (less than 10%). With the exception of March 23, 2022, they all gave valid signals (95% of the time the signal was valid). The green arrows produced the best results but some of the black arrows also gave good signals. Some lasted 1-5 trading days while others lasted 15-30 trading days. In general, the best signals are when these inside day reversals are found at either support or resistance. Because the cash VIX is in a weekly & monthly uptrend, I am using my purple & blue lines for true support/resistance levels. The purple is the weekly open/close trend line while the blue is the monthly open/close trend line. I also always have open weekly VIX gaps on my charts as I know these eventually clear out and will act as support or resistance. As you can see today produced a black arrow and is suggesting the downside movement in the VIX will be reversed either tomorrow or perhaps in a day or two. However because we are not in an area of significant support/resistance I think the reversal will be limited to the 35 area. I do not trade UVXY but have thought about entering a short term "sell side" trade on it due to the decay factor using this signal.
TVC:VIXLong
by Vixtine
Transitionary Period for VIX - 2/18/2022VIX at the daily view. I know it's been awhile since I posted. I've been buried in work. This year will be a transitionary year unlike last year. Twitter, Facebook, and other social media keeps comparing this to 1929 which is an intellectually lazy comparison. For example, bankers back in the 1920s were glorified accountants and the Federal Reserve didn't have any doctrines on how to handle a market crash like the Dodd-Frank Act. That and the economy today is not based on loans to farmers. That's besides the point. Like everyone else, I've been hearing the "sky is falling" narrative for months now. This year is more likely a hybrid of 2015 and 2018. The VIX was wild back then too. To put it simply, there are more hedges due to one unknown factor. That factor is: what will the Fed's rate hike schedule actually look like? Everyone and their mothers know that rate hikes are coming. The real questions are: how big will the future rate hikes be after the first one? How fast will those rate hikes be (quarterly, monthly)? What is the end goal? Is it 2.25% (expected)? Is it 3.00% (more than expected)? During rate hikes, that implies no more additional bond purchases (other than ordinary business). That means bond yields are elevated. That means the growth sectors get revaluated accordingly. About 35% of the ES is the tech sector. That means volatility is here to stay for several months. That means VIX stays elevated until the tech revaluation and the big unknown factor is behind us. Do you see the domino effect from macro (monetary policies) to the micro (your trades)? No, it doesn't mean that the market will crash 50% or more. Though, I wouldn't be surprised if NQ was down 30% from the highs. VIX will likely stay elevated for most of the year. Sept-Oct should be very volatile and wipe out both sides. If you are trading volatility, the general trading range remains roughly the same. However, you would have to shift your levels generally 5+ point up. For example, seeing VIX at 32 this year would be like seeing VIX at 27 last year. Not as impressive if you put it in relative terms. Why are there more hedges now which keeps the VIX elevated? The market doesn't care about good or bad news. That's noise. What it cares about the most is certainty and uncertainty. Think about it. If there is a war, there is the defense sector to invest. If there is a pandemic, there is the biotech sector. What sector do you invest in if the future monetary is unknown? Uncertain. That's why the big funds are going defensive until there is certainty. There is plenty of cash/liquidity on the sidelines, but there is no certainty to place them. It would be very hard for VIX to stay below 18 this year. That's like the VIX staying above 32 last year. That's why one should shift their levels upwards and put things into context. The only scenario that I can see VIX breaking 50 is if the Federal Reserve announce something very shocking like hiking rates above 5% in less than 2 years. That's unlikely. Why? If that happens, that would likely cause a Volcker-style recession (1980-1982) which was the third worst recession/depression in US history. If that happens, trading will be one of the last things that you will be worried about.
TVC:VIX
by Itsallsotiresome
4
VXN - 4 Hour / Elon'dCould not happen to a better gauge of Fear and complacency - the trusty VXN... senseless comes to mind as the NQ began the 1:30 PM EST Jumbalaya in the Fire. Another persistent AGLO Monday with the usual suspects in Prop. As the VXX began to implode again, the Bod came into the Indies. Pressure remains out in Time for today and tomorrow, with the attendant Distributions. Simply a crushing blow to Volatility while New HIghs remains elusive. _________________________________________________________________ A bad sign for the Equity Complex as there is only so much the VX Vigilantes will absorb. It will be interesting to see if the Larger Daily Price Objective to which the ALGOs are attached, relent and reverse.
CBOE:VXN
by HK_L61
1
VVIX: Telltale Sign / Large Dunk begins againOnce this completes, rising Bond VX and Elevated Vol of Vol... A Very Bad Sign as Santa presses his Luck. The Operators have the ALGOs tee'd up to reverse this absurd non-sense once we see VX Vol crushed to Support. Should be a stunning reversal. ______________________________________________________ Depression Trade needs to be priced in... Then another Whacko response, then new highs... Then 50% decline in 2022. Fiddling with explosives... Our Central Prankers.
V
by HK_L61
8
VXX - Cow TippingCattle Pens at th4 StockYards are FULL of BULLs. The Dippers are perplexed, what with all the Tweets from the FED on deck today. Jerry and the Kids continue to CowBell their way to another Prop. Of the 5 FOMC Members Bullhorning Today, the GOOD Fed / BAD Fed undertow is in Trade. _________________________________________ Step 1: Divorce Labor from Juice Step 2: Divorce Rates from Taper Step 3: Look over here, Taper... ah, well it's... Step 4: Keep DC off the Pedal, Choke Hold Step 5: Prop Up Money Markets Step 6: Confuse 007s Step 7: Return to Step 1 _________________________________________ It'll be OK... psst - BUY Protection xoxo - Jerry
AMEX:VXXShort
by HK_L61
9
VXN - NASDAQ Volatility Increasing - Larger Draws DailyNever underestimate Wall Street. Although there is a clear break in the Absolute Correlation between the VXN & NQ as there is in VX as a Complex... one which can easily be observed... it is irrelevant, as the Trend Itself will re-assert as Price begins to clear VIX Roll into a settlement next week. Wall Street is positioning now. As we continue into a very heavy MAcro Data Week beginning Wednesday with the FOMC and Jerome and his Minions posting up the Blah Blah and Yada Yada - Yoda routines... the Smart Money isn't buying it. We see the NQ's reaction with the VXN substantially lower than Friday's lower range while Nq's Price is struggling the 50%. Divergences are very clear and why we maintain the 200SMAs will be tested and Ultimately Busted - after the Potential for a 200SMA bounce and countertrend. The Bots are running wild again competing on both TF's - there is a very real struggle to continue lifting the NQ which is having difficulties... We are SOH and waiting to see what shakes out. We have closed our NQ Longs off 703 @ 777.
CBOE:VXN
by HK_L61
VXN - Open at Lower Trendline SupportThe VXN has been extremely reliable. The range has expanded with NQ VX. The same cannot be said for the VX Curve and VIX as it correlates to the ES, the compression and clear attempts to collar it are evident. We should anticipate lower Prices for both Today. Tuesday's NQ/QQQ Put buyers were used and abused once again, buying lows and having no chance to exit prior to RTH's NYSE open and vertical move off the pre-market lows from Globex. We doubt the same Buyers will attempt this again any time soon as they were simply crushed, abused - their pockets picked, becoming immense fuel after having gone all-in on the Crash for NQ. Impatient, and now wrecked on this trade, the DESKs see the entire order book and use it to their advantage every time, they never miss a beat in collecting bad retail bets. And make no mistake that bet was way offside near the Weekly Lower Support and Trend Line. It was a blind bet with no real awareness as to where Price was, simply a dart toss on who knows what. Keeping a close eye on the VIX and VXN as we come into trade today will be extreme in its importance as the next 24 hours are going to provide a great deal of information as to whether this can continue or simply roll back over and head to the 200s. Should Friday provide cover to run higher, things begin to change short term. Unfortunately, we will not know until the Close of Trading Friday... SOH here... Patience.
CBOE:VXN
by HK_L61
3
ES - August 4347 - 4542 DrawConsecutive Weekly Bars were 4 Ticks apart, the 2nd being the lower of the two for September... a Higher High for the ES, by a 7.5 handles. Tomorrow is "triple witching" and we should anticipate volatility resulting from the expiration dates of the three financing instruments - stock options, stock index futures and stock index options all expire simultaneously. In addition, Derivatives Sqare twice a year @ the BIS - March / September. The effects are usally quite dramtic and "Max Pain" is unreliable as there are far larger Pools of Capital squaring. We are four trading days from the next Federal Reserve pronouncements. Typically we see the TREND exert itself ahead of the FED. If the do nothing... or pander the same - then it will be October, that won't work for most... not at all as Q3 Earnings are going to be - horrific - and everyone within the Complex knows this. We are yet to hear actual warnings, instead we see teh Media edge off "issues" and "severe Issues" with Semiconductors.... Not Black GOLD, but Arrangement GOLD. It won't pass, buggy whips included. Sellers remain and loom quite large, Retail was squeezed once again today as Futures, Put options and Shares were sold into during the prior several lows below 4441. Friday's are always a low liquidity session - with one expcetion, 3x ad 4x expirations. Usually the expanding range counter-trends last from 3 to 7 trading days. Gap Fills are axiomatic as we move from Monday to Friday as the probability increases as we move throught the week. More than a few traders are wondering if we off to far higher levels. We had solid strucutre counts on the YM RTY ES and even the NQ although it was the laggard. These counts respectively 8/9 - 8/9 - 6/9 and 4/9 have reversed. We now see the range expand as indicated by the VIX / VVIX / VXN - as vol of vol began to fall shaprly we has our signals the trade would reverse, this was yesterday. It will be difficult for Price to move to close over last months high indicated in the chart above. It may get close, but it will take a monumental effort as Institutions are in a very clear pattern of SELLS, they abated as there were no buyers, even the Retail Dip buyer tossed in the towel. The same Dip Buyer is now looking for 16, 17 , 18K for NQ - 5000 for the ES and 2400 for RTY as well as 37K for the Dow after this reversal - and to be fair, for well over a year they have been 100% correct. It was not until last September 3rd we had a sharp correction unimpeded. It has well beyond one year Price has tested it's 200SMA. We can how the defense came in looking at the 1 Hour Chart - the Death Cross was not to be permitted. Quite often, reactions from the 100SMA 1Hr are violent as it is THE LIS for Professional Managers. No one wants this game to end when the Taxpayer is funding enormous Profits, No One. The issue is it cannot contniue given the Global Backdrop and the longer it does, the more severe the Drop. We do not believe it will fall more than 10 -15% - perhpas dipping in to 400SMA Dailies, but not exceeding 3588 as the 1/5 conclusion, this would imply a larger, perhpas 30 - 50 % correction, one that is not recoverable for a long time. There is price where it squares, we are approaching it. Sellers moved Price out of their own balance as they have more to distribute. The only real hedge they have left is Volatilty Instruments, these are worthy of following very closely to determine when and where they have comfort in beyond Delta Nuetral for downside Profits, they continue to build these positions as VX declines and Protection decreases in Price along with Vol of Vol or the VVIX Instrument. Know what to look for as we move through this period. It can and wil change very quickly, we firmly believe 200SMAs will be tested into October/November and would suggest the 400SMAs stand a higher probability of being an Objective. We believe 4509 - yeah, that's going to be a very tough Close EOD. It should be SOLD wholesale.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HK_L61
13
NQ - Building December SELLs NQ ES RTY YM - First EntriesMNQ STO - 10 x 15365 MNQ STO - 5 x 15360 MNQ STO - 5 x 15355 MNQ STO - 5 x 15350 EQ - 2.5 NQ Sells After Kaplans later Friday reversal, the die was cast for the cartoonish over throw. Our Initial Target from 3 weeks ago was 15363, this target was met and exceeded in the NQ SEP CT @ 15384. We will continue to use SEP as the BTO Hedge, we closed 2 NQ from 170 break at 322. We hold Zero SEP Hedge for NQ currently. We remain in a large Bid for SOXS, with 28K @ 6.91~ ES -STO 6.5K CTs RTY - 0 Positions YM - 0 Positions CL - STO 7K 65.87 VXX - BTO 6 CTs 2644 VX - M1/M2/M3 BTO 8 CTs on Curve VXM - M1 40MCTs SOXS - 28K ~ 6.912 ___________________________________________________________________________ The VIX Curve implies an 86% chance of increased Volatility for the Indices today. Extremes in many metrics and indicators, keep us in a Line Feed Out strategy for a violent reversal. The Monthly patterns, imho - are completing off two historic conditions: 1. A break away monthly Gap - never occurred in History, never. 2. 7 Monthly Bull Bars probability is 12:1 against. An 8th has never occurred in the past 25 Years. Market breadth is extreme in its weakness. Gamma was once again the driver, with vastly reduced Call Volumes. AAPL TSLA GOOG NVDA - another attempt at GS will fail imho AMC Apes bought the 39s... we are seller of AMC from 37.50 to 41.00 TSLA - Sellers at 720 - 750 ARKK - Sellers 120.11 to 125 WE Anticipate a violent reversal very soon. Ideally, today should close Negative no later than Globex. Prosperity to those positioned for the reversal. - HK
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by HK_L61
17
VXX - ES Weakening with even greater Technical DivergencesVXX coming back to lower end of Range. We are preparing for a large Selloff in the next 48 hours. VXX Entries are Laddered down to 24.50 from 27.05. M1/M2/M3 VX Curve as well M3-M4 provide pressure for now... Only for Low Participation - We anticipate a High Tomorrow at the latest for ES. It can hold off as late as Globex... we'll be 40% into our SELL with the follow on SELLs into September TF 8th - 21st. December will be our Futures SELL, SEP the Hedge.
AMEX:VXXLong
by HK_L61
4
VIX - VIX.Explosion Setting up perfectlyAs the usual suspects attempt Gamma Squeeze after Gamm Squeeze. Bubbles the Chimp decides to take some off. Participants are backing away, $4 Trillion Jimmy Carnie touted on the "Sidelines" isn't coming into the Equity CONplex. It prefers CASH. TLT needs to close those over head Gaps prior to reversing... or does it. VIX coiling in a falling wedge where Wall Street wants those $0.25 Calls out the curve - simple crush VOL and they are doing so with relative ease.
CBOE:VX1!Long
by HK_L61