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VXN

VXN - NASDAQ Volatility Increasing - Larger Draws DailyNever underestimate Wall Street. Although there is a clear break in the Absolute Correlation between the VXN & NQ as there is in VX as a Complex... one which can easily be observed... it is irrelevant, as the Trend Itself will re-assert as Price begins to clear VIX Roll into a settlement next week. Wall Street is positioning now. As we continue into a very heavy MAcro Data Week beginning Wednesday with the FOMC and Jerome and his Minions posting up the Blah Blah and Yada Yada - Yoda routines... the Smart Money isn't buying it. We see the NQ's reaction with the VXN substantially lower than Friday's lower range while Nq's Price is struggling the 50%. Divergences are very clear and why we maintain the 200SMAs will be tested and Ultimately Busted - after the Potential for a 200SMA bounce and countertrend. The Bots are running wild again competing on both TF's - there is a very real struggle to continue lifting the NQ which is having difficulties... We are SOH and waiting to see what shakes out. We have closed our NQ Longs off 703 @ 777.
CBOE:VXN
by HK_L61
VXN - NQ Volatility / 30 Day VX Expectations - ES YM RTYWe see how important the Ledge remains. We traded Support first thing this morning, this is where and when we Closed our NQ SELLs. The balance of the Day was SOH. The intent is clear, the Hourly was over-sold, the Weekly remains deadly. These are enormous ranges and again, IF there is not a high probability setup with a clearly defined trade plan. 9/10 its a loser. NQ did exactly as indicated within the Range. The ES, although the Range expanded to 4140 (200SMA) to 4388, it did dip in @ the Upper Trend Line by a few Ticks. The VIX gave up the Ghost, as indicated there is a serious effort to keep it under control AND we have 10 trading days to Roll/Settlement. This is the sweet spot for Counter Trends to develop. YM / RTY - exact same trades... RTY is always used to park $ as it is easy to manipulate due to its weightings. We suggested this CT would evolve and patience was required as it can trade up to the Ledge, a Gap Fill, remains possible, but not probable. Were the Indices to Fill their overhead Gaps, it would imply a longer correction duration... this is why patience is so very important. It is best to permit the Trade to come to you as opposed to chasing it. This generally ends badly for most traders. There is far more Downside to come as the 200SMAs are wide open now. Observe where the 21/34/50EMAs are, know these levels, they are extreme in importance and the Algo's always using them for Fills. We have 2 competing BOTs, one - short term duration - and the other attempting larger fills on Daily Time Frames, when they are not competing, as we have observed, the ST ALGO runs the Range until the DT ALGO gets its Fill.
CBOE:VXN
by HK_L61
2
VXN - NQ Volatility / 30 Day VX ExpectationsImplied Price of options listed for the NQ. We see a clear change in the Trend for NQ VX. Globex is now increasing in VX as we see a 200 Tick Range for NQ since the Globex Open. Algos are simply running the Range capturing Ticks. AAPL is sitting on support @ 141 and with EPS dead ahead for the Indices - and an absence of EPS Warnings... Bombs should begin to drop as Q3 was dismal, to be kind. AAPL's delayed M1X rollout and M2 rollouts will have left a large hole in 11% of the Company's EPS, iPhone lackluster demand for the 13 isn't going to assist. The marginal iMobbers are tightening their spending significantly. 10Yr Yields will continue to provide a stiff headwind for everything as DEBT issues compound into the 18th. We should anticipate some Media Swings with respect to the Administrations Agendas and Fiscal Malaiese. The SMH continues to SELL as TSM & ASML remain @ Risk. GOOG will enter the Mobile market with its Tensor Chips with impressive advancements for the Pixel 6 and Pixel 6 Pro. Samsung's Exynos 5nm chipset centered on the AI-boosting TPU and a great many improvements for Google Fi as well. A true International Phone is arriving Mid-October. Alphabet is hoping to capture Market Share and we believe they will. One Plus was our go-to for several years as they simply outperformed everyone else until the Oppo integration. We are switching to Pixels later this year and moving all services to Fi as the Service is straightforward and with fully integrated Carrier Switching... a near-perfect arrangement. Apple's latest offering, a shallow one imho. Although Budget offerings from Mint Mobile will see uptake, where it counts, Fi will begin to gain share slowly until they are able to scope/scale for a lower tier. Chip shortages are going to wreak havoc once the Retail herd understands how dramatically sales have gone El Cliffo. VX is going to increase again, as uncertainty begins to unfold in a far more dramatic fashion.
CBOE:VXN
by HK_L61
5
VXN - Gap FillOver 15 Months $4.7 trillion was added to the National Debt. The Federal Reserve purchased $2.442 trillion in US government bonds. US Central Bank monetized more than 50% of the US Debt during the first year of the pandemic. No single entity bought more US bonds than the Fed – Foreign Investors, US Banks, US Corporations, and Individual Investors. The Debt Ceiling will need to make it through the Senate, which will use reconciliation. It remains in stasis for the next several weeks, giving Wall Street cover to begin further distributions as planned. Quite often the best-laid plans come to pass, sometimes they do not as we have seen the Price of the NQ fall below the prior consolidation zone. A great deal hinges on today, there will be a reactionary trade into the final hour is when we will see the real ST trend indications. They may well be a misdirection, patience will prevail into October. Anticipate the Gap Fill on the VXN and VIX - although the Indicies are not moving in lockstep with a direct correlation, but wildly volatile as this pullback in Volatility completes. Observation Day ahead - HK
CBOE:VXN
by HK_L61
2
VIX - Daily remain in a Sell, althoughThere is a great deal to be concerned about speaking broadly. Price erased 35 days of gains quickly - the first warning. Asia continues to absorb Dollars at a higher than usual rate. We have a very Large Lick setting up in VX Complex, one that will provide extremely large gains into August and through October. VXQ - 1975 1955 1935 1920 1895 are the levels to watch. The draw is from the 2 prior Contract lows to highs. July has broken its Long - 12.30 to 15.50 remain the entry zone, unless we see signs of 18.60 providing support. We believe it will.
CBOE:VXQ2021Long
by HK_L61
PANIC Ahead - August into OctoberThere is far more to "markets" than Charts. Risks appear as IF unknown when all eyes are focused upon Charts - this has been demonstrated time and again. Yet it remains mostly ignored. There are immense Risks to the Equity Complex. Today is a Prime Example of Wall Street getting its fills for the upcoming correction - it will be swift, violent and decidedly nasty. Buy the Dip is an almost religious, cult like adherence. This too shall pass. We anticipate a move to 200 EMAs happening with extreme swiftness. Timing it will be folly, it is best to begin positioning for it as Geo Political Risk has not been this high in years. Good Luck and may you prosper immensely in this next decline.
FRED:T10YIEShort
by HK_L61
1
Volatility - VIX Wyckoff AccumulationIdea for VIX: - VIX finally has touched pre-COVID levels. The debt and margin fueled recovery is complete. - Markets hitting ATH's every day (nearly a record for days in a row). - Yet every warning is flashing, market components are down, yet indices grind up on low volume. - Liquidity is flowing out, tapering has already begun, global credit impulse is negative, and market breadth is collapsing. - We are in the greatest asset bubble in history, and underlying conditions point to the greatest crash in history. - The crash has been telegraphed. In hindsight, it will be unanimously agreed upon that it was obvious. They will wonder how anyone could have been bullish here. - Such is the nature of the rally that a significant drop would create a bid-less market and mass liquidations. - Operators like to bid up a market to sell into (creating blow-off tops), and vice versa, to shake out retail and make sure the market will absorb their entire order. It is all being set up for a great flush. Classic accumulation pattern. Bubbles make their greatest gains at their end. Speculate the trigger by mid July. "Be fearful when others are greedy" - Warren Buffett GLHF - DPT
TVC:VIXLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
NDX Finding SupportNDX looks like it could find support at ~11,000 for the following reasons. 1) Potential Trend Line Forming; Break toward the top 2) I have the 2 Stdev Bollinger bands plotted: Price action is at the lower limit at this moment and could present buying pressure from the many who use this metric for entry points. 3) Fib levels show a retracement level at about 11,0000 4) VXN looks like it is hitting resistance at 43 and we are lower today than the values we saw on 10/28. Next resistance is ~46, and then ~60, so some risk there if volatility breaks out, but currently looks like the 43 level is holding. 5) PCC ratio is lower than the 10/28 value as of this moment, providing a little bit of comfort. With this in mind, I believe this is a decent entry point for those willing to take the risk. If you have the ability to trade options, maybe consider selling some delta 30 covered calls to hedge your trade.
TVC:NDQLong
by ajd
[UVXY Volatility Matrix] Rule #1 of Charting: Haters Gon' Hate!People out here actin' like predicting the future is easy! I'm just on my grind layin down some novel trading ideas. Take it or leave it. UVXY definitely caught a right hook to the chin today but as I made clear in my new RSI Model idea, this type of melt down swing dip typically precedes a spike and it could be exactly what we're seeing here given a lot of data aligning for an EOM spike. Not expecting it next week either, higher odds the week after based on how things are shaping up. It's all laid out for ya in the related ideas. The magnitude and exact timing of the next spike is always the trickiest part but odds say we hit the mid-20's at least before EOM and HHs by mid-November (likely due to election chaos of some kind). I'm trying to map the future for you guys here, don't take this sht so seriously! There's more to life than money people. Happy to bide my time and take my learnings while dialing in my Crystal Ball B). Volatility Matrix Analysis Anyway, Volatility Matrix is looking MORE Bullish. We got Entry Windows today for UVXY and and VXX and even VXN (not depicted here) and a LL for UVXY and VIX with both a Small BUY and Large BUY for VVIX. Somethin is brewing here, we'll find out soon!
CBOE:UVXYLong
by ProfitHarvest
13
[UVXY] Volatility Matrix: Everything Still Lookin Quite Bullish!Got so caught up in SPX I neglected the Volatility Matrix! Haven't even peeked since my last post weeks ago but everything looking great still. We have Large BUYs on all 4 of these + VXN with only one of the 5 having any significant SELL signals, VIX, with a Small SELL and brief Short Entry Window (but still leaning pretty BULLISH overall). This suggests an even greater likelihood that volatility will spike soon and adds more supporting data to my generally BEARISH view of the markets right now.
CBOE:VXXLong
by ProfitHarvest
3
[UVXY] Volatility Matrix: Looks Like We May Have Hit Bottom!Today may have been just the turning point we were lookin for to precede a volatilty spike taking off later this week. Right now the model is only marginally more bullish than Neutral but is the last place we were looking for near term confirms as the bigger picture is still quite bullish for volatility. At the 2H this turn has only just begun so it is only weak signals right now but if this does turn into a spike then we may have found quite the little formula for getting in early. Signals from Weakest to Strongest: LL: 1 x UVXY, 2 x VXN, 2 x VIX BUY Window: 5 x UVXY, 1 x VVIX SB: 1 x UVXY Still looking for more SB's and especially LB's to really confirm another up breakout but everything is leanin in the right direction now after today. UVXY chart is all fcked looking at this view haha, I'll break out the new structural S/R channels there separately (also more bullish after today!).
CBOE:UVXYLong
by ProfitHarvest
2
VXN (NQ's VIX) Divergences 9/6/2020VXN at the daily view. This is a project that my trading team and I are conducting. This is 3 of 9 charts (available on Trading View) that searches for clues for an imminent correction by using both June and September 2020 cases. It's a comprehensive overview that connects the charts volatility, trends, divergences, credit, and currency strength. In this chart, the VXN had RSI divergences prior to the corrections. In addition, the VXN created 3-4 higher lows in a row prior to a correction.
CBOE:VXN
by Itsallsotiresome