VIX - CASH Index during Summer Doldrum PivotThere is a substantial opportunity setting up for the Cash VIX, Calls are
obviously higher into Friday's RT, but should be followed out to and through
Feb 2023 at the 25 and 35 Levels.
The Arbs are beginning to stretch the Bands to extremes, this almost
always provides an outsized opportunity at Levels.
24.30 Was the July Futures Contract Support which traded 3 times within
the 24-hour period prior to settlement.
The August Blended Continous Contract failed its Support within the 25.80
to 29.30 implied range on the M1/M2 Settle.
Protection is absent on longer-term Timeframes for Retail.
VIX trading has been limited to Intra-Day scalping for the majority of Volumes.
Support for Cash extends off the 4th pivot @ 21.25 and then to 20.425 where
Entry should be targeted.
Operators can bleed out VX this time of year and quietly accumulate out months,
which is what they will do when it is time.
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When the Levy Breaks the VX Complex will run back to All-Time Highs.
Our next Crash to lower lows is setting up nicely.
44.44 is the implied Daily extension overhead, it remains valid as the Summer
clubbing begins to unravel.
Mean Reverting Indices is a relative comparison... VVIX is closing in on 83,58
pivot.
Where do you get the best move based on VX... VIX CASH layup trade - IMHO.
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Good Luck with entries ~!
VXO
VIX Daily - 2021 Lows to HighsWhat is encouraging after Sunday GLOBEX:
The VIX exceeded the 50% of 2021 and although
it did not make a new high against the Prior Spike High
On a Percentage Basis it was the 4th Largest Percentage Spike
The Prior Spike did NOT.
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Use the VIX Pullback for RT Targets for ES YM RTY.
VXN for NQ.
VIX Range for Today 22.30 - 25.15 with 23.40 as the Pivot
*** 22.50 is the LIS.
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With Powell speaking late today the Operators will no doubt pull
out the stops to make the Re-Anointed Chair appear Gilded.
Long week ahead as this develops.
Large Gap Below on VIX.
VIX - VXZ Front Month / MonthlyA Gap 10 Handles below - Weekly and Monthly Chart which is of concern
for the Bulls.
Delta remains the trade in the VIX.
Extensions in Trade, this can become an exponential move barring no
Monkey Business from the Operators, ESF, and FED.
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The 54.04% move Higher was the 4th largest move since the inception of the VIX.
2021 - 61.44%
2007 - 64.22%
2018 - 115.60%
For the Point move, 10 Handles ranks 18th, 2020 was 1st @ 24.86 Points.
Statistically, the percentage move on Friday is an extreme outlier.
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Price Left a lower Gap 10 Points below.
Implied Volatility of At The Money Options... need to be Observed.
VXX Spike @ 4 Highest. for M1/M2
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For Historical reference - the OEX or SP 100 Equivalent during the 1987 Reversal:
Baseline VXO (Correlated Historical) Spiked to 30 from 18.22.
At the time I was working at Drexel and will never forget how Investors began
selling OEX Puts at the Money/Above - believing the one-day event was a knockoff.
This was Friday., end of week anomaly. Screw Germany was the thinking. The Ripples
will be contained. Greenspan provided the Emergency pat down to Member Banks
the following week, reminding them - this event must be contained for everyone's
Financial health.
The S&P 500 lost 10% the week ending Friday, October 16, 1987 and lost an
additional 20% the following Monday, October 19, 1987.
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Nervousness appeared the following Monday AM briefing @ 5 AM. John Jetter asked
the team to contact clients and reduce exposure to OEX to reduce Risk.
Monday did not end well for those who did not heed his strategy.
The VXO on Equivalent - Spikesd again to 170+ Monday, setting near 150 on the Day.
This was THE largest single Daily move in Market Volatility in History.
The One Day wonder turned into the largest Bloodbath in History for Bulls and
sellers of OEX Puts, Dip Buyers, and the Pop and Fresh Peter Lynch Herd.
They were decimated, the Magellan Fund took its largest 2 Day loss ever. Small
Caos were raked - defeating the individual investors had inherent advantages
over large institutions Thesis.
Theories do jump out of High rises in a Lifetime of Investing.
Leverage was not an issue then as it is now.
It sets a preamble for enormous declines, the Potential for them.
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Will History report?
It has a higher than usual Probability of doing precisely that.
We will see, at some point, there will be an outsized retracement, from where...
Fundamentally Straight down or not at all.
Interesting times indeed.
Volatility - VIX Wyckoff AccumulationIdea for VIX:
- VIX finally has touched pre-COVID levels. The debt and margin fueled recovery is complete.
- Markets hitting ATH's every day (nearly a record for days in a row).
- Yet every warning is flashing, market components are down, yet indices grind up on low volume.
- Liquidity is flowing out, tapering has already begun, global credit impulse is negative, and market breadth is collapsing.
- We are in the greatest asset bubble in history, and underlying conditions point to the greatest crash in history.
- The crash has been telegraphed. In hindsight, it will be unanimously agreed upon that it was obvious. They will wonder how anyone could have been bullish here.
- Such is the nature of the rally that a significant drop would create a bid-less market and mass liquidations.
- Operators like to bid up a market to sell into (creating blow-off tops), and vice versa, to shake out retail and make sure the market will absorb their entire order.
It is all being set up for a great flush.
Classic accumulation pattern.
Bubbles make their greatest gains at their end.
Speculate the trigger by mid July.
"Be fearful when others are greedy" - Warren Buffett
GLHF
- DPT