VXX
VXX daily - mixed bag - 5/7/2016no clear direction yet, but I will start to buy if ever it closes above the blue lines, as that would be a higher high after two higher lows (and then use the blue lines as stop).
SOLD VXX JUNE 17TH SHORT PUT... for a $94/contract credit.
Unfortunately, I forgot to jot down the metrics here.
I wanted to ladder out spreads (see Post Below), but it didn't look like those we're going to be filled, so I opted for the more flexible naked, which I can roll down and out for duration and credit if I have to. Doing that with the spreads is a bit more cumbersome.
As with all VIX/VIX derivatives, I look to money, take, run on a pop, but am shooting for 50% max credit here if I can get it.
World Index... Equities is in DangerI'm expecting a world equities market crash/correction soon. When the orange trendline breaks, the target is the lime trendline. When the lime trendline breaks, we are most likely headed for the 0.618 level.
Hedge the risk by going long volatility - be safe.
VXX daily - breaking out - 4/29/2016VXX finally breaking out after a big RSI divergence. I want to see a higher low to confirm the breakout next week.
Amadeo Ratio 4/22/2016The chances of it going down is much greater than the chances of it going up. We need to watch the lines.
SPX/VIX 4/22/2016It seems to have been rejected by the primary downtrend line (purple) on 4/20/2016. We need to watch it closely.
SPY/VIX 4/22/2016It seems to have been rejected by the primary downtrend line (purple) on 4/20/2016. We need to watch it closely.
NEXT WEEK: VXX SHORT PUT VERTICAL "LADDER"With volatility sticking around these lows, I'm looking at dispersing risk across several expiries of VXX by laddering short put verticals in June, July, and September (unfortunately, there is no August expiry yet) while I continue to work my VXX short call diagonals.
Here's what I'm looking at now in the monthlies:
VXX June 12/15 short put vertical ($105/contract at the mid) (the 11 strike's a no-bid)
VXX July 11/14 short put vertical ($90/contract at the mid) (10's a no bid here)
VXX Sept 9/13 short put vertical ($104 contract at the mid)
As with all VIX/VIX derivative product setups, I'll look to take the money and run on these if they move into profit (I'm thinking 50% max, as with any credit spread).
TRADE IDEA: VXX JUNE 17TH 17/27/37 LONG CALL BUTTERFLYWith low volatility having drained premium not only out of the broader market, but individual underlyings as well, I continue to look at VIX and VXX derivatives to go "long volatility" in lieu of opting for low vol strategies like debit spreads, calendars, and diagonals.
In this particular case, I'm opting to use a long call butterfly given its high risk/return ratio, its relative cheapness to put on, as well as the large profit zone the setup generates.
Here are the metrics for the setup:
Probability of Profit: 54%
Max Profit: $910/contract
Max Risk/Buying Power Effect: $90/contract
Notes: There are a couple of different ways to manage this intratrade, one of which merely involves taking the whole setup off in profit. The alternative way is to strip off the long call vertical portion of the setup (the 17/27 wing) first as price moves up, after which you would look to exit the short call vertical wing (27/37) as VXX mean reverts (as it is want to do).
ROLLING VXX SHORT CALLSI currently have several VXX short call diagonals on, all of which have the September monthly as the back month, and with the short calls at the 16, 17, 18 and 21 strikes.
Today, with the 21, 18, and 17 short calls having lost a good deal of their value, I rolled them out to lock in profit as well as collect additional credit while I wait for a pop of some kind to peel them off ... .
Amadeo Ratio 4/19/2016Use it with benevolence and love. Use it to pursue peace and serenity. Keep in mind that Doing cannot do much without Non-doing.
SPY/USO/VXX/GLD/SLV Ratio 4/18/2016 (Short-Term View)There is giant rising wedge forming. This ratio seems to indicate the aggregate perception of the US economy - the higher the better. As you can see in August 2015, there was a huge leg down which was unprecedented in this chart.
SPY/USO/VXX/GLD/SLV Ratio 4/18/2016 (All-Time View)There is giant rising wedge forming. This ratio seems to indicate the aggregate perception of the US economy - the higher the better. As you can see in August 2015, there was a huge leg down which was unprecedented in this chart.
BOUGHT VXX SEPT 16TH 11/MAY 20TH 16 SHORT CALL DIAGONALPutting on another VXX long setup, given the fact that we don't have many premium selling opportunities here (volatility low across the board, both in the broad markets and individual underlyings).
Filled for a $400/contract debit ... . I'll look to take these VXX long setups off at 25% profit ... .
SPY/VXX Ratio 4/18/2016 (Short-Term View)This is for you all stock market bears. Do not go short if this ratio keeps on breaking those resistance lines.
SPY/VXX Ratio 4/18/2016 (All-Time View)This is for you all stock market bears. Do not go short if this ratio keeps on breaking those resistance lines.
Inverse Gold/VIX Ratio 4/15/2016 (All-Time View)Watch the lines. This chart can guide you if you are pursuing the strategy of being long Gold/VIX, and this ratio dropping means you are winning.
S&P 500/VIX Ratio 4/15/2016 (All-Time Non-Log View)Watch the lines for a good place to jump in if you are looking to long VIX. This chart helps us distinguish between fearless crashes and fearful crashes.
SPX/VIX Ratio 4/15/2016 (Short-term View)Instead of looking at SPX alone, looking at this ratio is better for shorting stocks/longing VIX, because it helps us distinguish between fearless crashes and fearful crashes. Watch the black/light blue/brown lines above. If this ratio breaks above those lines confidently, get out of shorts and wait for a better time to do so.
