AUDJPY Market Overview & Possible Trade PlansChecking out AUD/JPY today as the pair recovers from an early Tuesday drop, likely on rising global risk aversion sentiment as coronavirus fears blaze up once again. Words are in town that by Apple, who issued revenue guidance warning www.theverge.com overnight, evoking fears of a more significant impact from the coronavirus outbreak on the global economy.
This lead to a break of the rising trendline lower lows on the hourly chart, as seen above, but the bulls stepped in to halt the decline around the pivot weekly s1. The pair is now testing the past broken strong support area around 73.50, which could draw in sellers looking for another opportunity to play the risk-off sentiment at a better price.
Be on the look out for bearish reversal patterns before considering a short play, and if the upcoming Australian data disappoints, then this pair could make a run for fresh break of today’s swing lows.
For the bulls, a turn in Coronavirus sentiment could halt the decline, as well as a big positive surprise from Australia’s upcoming leading and wages data. A break above 73.50 in the scenario could draw further fresh buyers who could shoot for the 74.00 handle, which is well with reach knowing the ATR of around 60 pips for this cross pair.
Wages
.PAYCHECK Index I was watching bloomberg today and an analyst mentioned the 'economy paycheck' as a measure of (payrolls * average hourly wages * average hours worked in a week)
Here I have made the same index for observation.
Interesting how it reversed clearly as the 08 crash happened and then bottomed clearly in 09; williams trader called for long in 2011 and also 2014.
Pretty cool little index to watch; I just put some fib on there but it's basically useless imho as the QE cash flowing in has just allowed the paycheck index to barrel through any kind of levels this might suggest.
Enjoy the index; tell me what you are seeing!
GL HF
xoxo
-Snoop