US TECH: GAME OVER?Well, get your popcorn ready!! US Tech 100 is in a precarious position. This is another thing that rules the world!
Price ducked below 11000 - which is considered important. Will it stay below? How would I know? 🤷♂️🤦♂️ At time of posting price is a 10920-ish. Does this mean the backs of the USTECH and NASDAQ are broken? Of course not. Expect permabulls to do their stuff. We need them - for the big money transfer- so they're much loved! 🤣
Price action on this on the 3 to 5 min time frame today was soooo exciting! LOL. Call me a nerd - it's fine. LOL. 😉😎 If you wanna see what's really happening you just gotta get dirty in the trenches!
I'll be doing a video soon, showing how I look at price action in the indices, comparing the rule of Tech100 with other indices. Stock up on popcorn! 😂👳♂️
I don't do predictions - because I believe trend is more important than price .
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Wallstreet
DJI (Wall Street): Looking ahead for surprises. In this screencast I show some pretty interesting price action on the 1H time frame. I've used the 'theory of curves' to average out price action.
The 1H is pretty risky now for trend following entries going south. The price action is looking rebellious, in that the bulls are fighting hard to keep this market afloat.
There are two amazing 1H ATR switches which suggest heavy bearish pressure. But never underestimate the owners of central banks and their friends! Politricks also affects sentiment - but you can't see that influence on charts. So, there are unseen dangers.
As elections approach in November in the USA, a crashing market is good for nobody. I'm expecting the ' plunge protection team ' (PPT) may become involved. Don't under estimate them - they're very powerful. Some say the PPT doesn't exist. I'm not debating it.
If the PPT gets involved expect to see sudden unusual small trends north on the 3 to 5 min time frame. Often the PPT rides the back of positive news to avoid discovery. I've seen this too many times.
Nothing in this post is predictive. I don't do predictions.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
DJI: A nice little find - parallel channelIt doesn't matter what time frame you find stuff. Just share. That's what I do, so others can benefit (if they manage their losses properly).
The 15 min channel is so curious. The obvious questions that will pop into minds are like:
1 - is that for real?
2 - how far will it go?
It is real - if you see it. How far - nobody knows!
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
DOW JONES Strong long-term Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price rebounded on the 1D MA50.
Target: 29000 (1.2 Fibonacci extension).
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DJI (1H): WALL STREET SAFETY DANCE? Trend following set up.On Thursday 3rd Sept 2020, the DJI did an important about turn on the 1H time frame. Price collapsed 1100 points in one day (not on mid-point pricing). A correction was not unexpected, as many had known that the DJI was heavily overbought. As this is a trend-following set up, you will find no predictions .
However, 1100 points was rather more than expected and the speed at which it happened was startling. A majority of stocks took the nose dive. Even Tesla went south.
Many permabull traders were left scratching their heads. Some who got out were punching the air, while others were crying in their pints.
So 'everybody' wanted to know what happened. Why? It's - as usual - a complicated story and several factors contributed. A big one was some Japanese bloke (who I cannot name, because of the house rules). He pumped call options to a tune of some $50 Billion in this market. Robinhoods followed the frenzy from their homes and mobile apps, going north like the moon was in sight! Some who were following Softbank may have appreciated. I can't go into all of it.
Well, somebody dumped! We can't really know who are these people. But it was a big dump you have to admit. So what does it mean? I can't know for sure so I'll speculate . Note carefully the following is speculation (and note my disclaimers).
1 - Politics is in the backdrop - there is concern among some of the big boys that the US election outcome may not be favourable. I do not wish to get into political sides on this, but geopolitics does affect sentiment. Uncertainty is the big factor.
2 - So whichever side the punters took on, as November 2020 weighed on their minds, I suspect they decided to go for cash.
My speculation may be totally wrong and even I do not rely on it.
To be 100% clear, I have little doubt that Robinhoods (and moms and pops) will attempt to buy the dip - possibly push price back up to 28900. However, the ATR line in a sharp switch is usually meaningful as a guide (on this time frame only).
If price gets back near to 28000, I'll be looking to short with a tight controlled loss (aka stop-loss). Look, the name of the game is taking the controlled affordable loss. Any trader who scoffs at losses, actually needs to stop trading. Some will probably ask me for details on my probable stop-loss. I can't say from now because I'd need to see what the price action is like. I've already declared on the chart that this post is about trend-following. That is a very different thing to the usual you see on Tradingview. According to robust research, only about 20% of all traders are true trend-followers.
I cannot know to what extent the 1H ATR switch is important at this stage. This is not like in harmonic trading (trend continuation), where you see a formation and you know pretty well what your stop-loss and TP are in advance.
Some people have asked me to explain more. I've done all that in several of my videos. Trend followers can be profitable with as low as a 30% win rate. How? It depends heavily on how far trends are followed, whilst minimising losses. Aggregate losses can be large too. Trend-followers can see between 3 and 20 times appreciation depending on time frame.
But returning to the chart. 'We' can't know from now if a 1H trend switch will bear 'fruit'. It may bring losses. That's the name of the game. It is brutal.
Stay safe. Wear a good mask. Wash your hands. Don't attend raves. Sleep well. 😉😄
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, or miss opportunity, kindly sue yourself.
GBPAUD Long term analysisHello Traders,it's been a while since I uploaded an idea. Kindly like this idea if you love it and leave your thoughts in the comment section
I feel the smart money are playing in the range on the Great British Pound/Australian Dollar pair. We can see a stop hunt to the upside trapping early buyers and stopping out shorts. It has now broken out of the range into an OB+Bullish breaker where we could expect to see higher prices
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buy the dow. big divergence. 1000 points move!Big MACDH divergence here on the hourly dow futures chart, in a uptrend...
Expecting the bull flag here to be tested, then first red resistance line above. Dow still has not reached its ATH yet (Nasdaq and S+P have). I expect this divergence with strong manufacturing data today will be the catalyst for a possible 1000 point move here.
Stop at the hourly divergence low.
S&P500: Trade the break-out of the Rising Wedge.The index is trading within a Rising Wedge pattern on the 4H chart (RSI = 65.584, MACD = 10.000, ADX = 30.906) and has reached the point of exhaustion. With the 4H MA50 supporting, it is more probable to see an upward break-out. In any case trade the direction of whichever break-out takes place first: bullish TP = 3,407 and 3,429 while bearish TP = 3,367 and 3,339.50.
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Previous signal:
Dow Jones: Sell opportunity within the Channel Up.DJI is trading within a Channel Up on the 4H chart (RSI = 55.798, MACD = 115.900, ADX = 32.013) since late June. Today the MACD made a red cross, the RSI has already since Aug 11th hit its Resistance, and it looks as if the Higher High is priced in. We are expecting the price to touch the 4H MA50 once again around 27,100.
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Go short Dow, fake break, 300 point gap fillExpecting a breakout fakeout here on the dow, 5 min moving averages are very bearish still.
These moving averages in no way support a breakout here and daily is very overbought.
There is a gap fill still not filled from 3 days ago down at 27690, let see if we can get a 300 point move out of this to the downside.
Stop at the daily high 28160, (lower down once fake break confirmed)
Leave a like please and I'll keep updating this trade for you as we go through it
DJI (Wall Street) wobbles. This is a 1H time frame. The perspective is confined to this time frame only. There are no predictions on this chart.
There is evidence of an important trend switch for the south, visible to everybody. Trend switches do not mean price is gonna fall. It only creates a greater probability of movement in the direction of the switch.
For every probability in one direction, there is a residual probability in the other direction. Lots of traders seem to forget about the residual opposing probability in their risk assessment. This is why I often say that I predict nothing.
If anybody goes short on this in the kill zone area, they have to be able to take heavy losses. I always talk about losses quite openly in many of my posts. It is actually the most important thing in trading, to control. Actually it's the only thing any trader can control.
Incidentally, look at what's happening with Gold - something I warned about.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, or miss opportunity, kindly sue yourself.
Analysis On GBPCAD is to go short soon.In this analysis, you will see that price has been in an uptrend. However, reacted significantly at KEY Level Of Resistance. That allows price to reverse and started a new found downtrend.
We can also see that it's respecting market structure by forming a series of Lower Highs and Lower Lows as well as breaking levels of past support and retesting as future resistance. Hence, the strong bias on going short upon the retest of new resistance level.
High probability EURUSD ShortHello Traders, kindly like this idea if you love it and leave your thoughts in the comment section
Looking for shorts on EURUSD in line with the dollar index creating a Market Maker Buy Model on the Consequential Encroachment of a Monthly FVG
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