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Wallstreet

Stand or fall, state your peace tonight!I can't predict the future, unlike many of my fellow traders. However, I know a bad weather setup when I see one. Have a look/listen. I don't like what I see. I see storm clouds gathering. I see delusional pumping of a market. I see a deep disconnect between reality and sentiment. I see momentum falling off. But make no mistake - I do not underestimate the power of the FED to pump! The FED's so-called 'balance sheet' has gone wild and is set to go orbital, in a do-or-die attempt to save the economy. They have the power to print - and oh boy, they're gonna print! The balance sheet can easily head upward of $50 Trillion. This means the market could do a 100% retracement, from 23 March 2020. Along the way people are gonna wake up to " What's the value of money? ". This could send Gold into orbit as well - but if the market crashes don't expect too much of Gold. What's keeping this market up? FED cheap money for sure - and the FAANG stocks. That's about it. Fundamentals are about reality. Sentiment and technical analysis are the fantasy (which we normally exploit). What happens when reality catches up with fantasy? PAIN! Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
4
JOURNEY SOUTH?The most important part of trading - especially with true trend-following - is stalking your prey very very carefully. The next is controlling loss. Trend followers suffer heavier controlled losses - but also enjoy far greater gains - than those who rely on targets-based methods of trading. It is certainly not for 'everybody'. Only about 20% of all traders are true trend followers. Trend continuity trading is not trend-following. Of high importance with 'stalking' any particular trend - because losses can be heavier - is the entry point. For example the ideal entry point in the chart snapshot would have been close to 26000. Anything much lower than that means risking heavier losses. I'm often asked if A, B, or C instrument is heading north or south. Most traders when they ask this sort of question are not thinking in terms of time frame. They're mainly looking at price and thinking R:R ratio. In trend following all you can do is control the loss. You do not know how much you may eventually gain. That's why it's very scary! But this is not a tutorial on trend following techniques or strategy. Overall though, one just has to pick a trend control loss and follow on that chosen time frame. It could be a lowly 1 min trend to a higher 1H trend - whatever you want so long as you can take the loss without flinching. I almost never get involved with higher than 1H trends these days. For those new to trend-following, from my experience, a simple 5 min trend can take up to about 2 days before it reverses. A 15 min trend can last several days. 1H trends can last a couple weeks. Of course, they can be very short lived too. Trend followers will also use harmonic patterns and other methods to assess key entry points. So 'we' don't have a problem with other methodologies. We'll use anything to get a pound of flesh out of the markets. But following the trend is the big thing. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30Education
by Captain_Walker
Dow Jones: How the log Fibs show $88,000.No matter how odd it may sound now, we have come up with a simple model using the logarithmic Fibonacci extension levels to determine the next long term target on Dow Jones. We have timed the beginning at the end of the great depression in the early 1930s. The ATH before the depression is Fib 1 and the bottom Fib 0. The market recovered the ATH in 25 years. After that we see a very peculiar occurrence on this Fibonacci log scale. Every market top follows the 0.4, 0.9 sequence, i.e: - The next peak of the index was on the 1.4 Fibonacci extension. What happened then was a 16 year period of anxiety and consolidation before the next break-out. - This came to a peak on the 1.9 Fibonacci extension which was the 1987 Black Monday crash. - The next peak was just before the Dotcom crash of the 2000s on the 2.4 Fib (actually was exactly on the 2.5). - The current coronavirus crash was on the 2.9 Fibonacci log. According to this model, the next market peak should be on the 3.4 logarithmic Fibonacci extension, which is priced around $88,000. This may sound unrealistic right now but if you look back at every prior high, the market would always thought of the next long-term target as unrealistic. It went from $380 in 2029 to $955 in 1966, then $2700 in 1987, $11,500 in 2000 and now $28,000 in 2020. As you see the time sequence from .9 Fib to .4 Fib is roughly 130 - 150 months. The time sequence from .4 Fib to .9 Fib is roughly 260 - 270 months. The next ($88,000) peak covers a .9 to .4 Fib, so according to the model it should be delivered within 130 - 150 months, timing this market peak approximately within 2030 - 2032. What is also interesting is that the LMACD is printing the same formation on every Fibonacci peak. That is an aggressive bearish pull down. As you see, for the current coronavirus crash, this formation is already completed. ** If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
TVC:DJILong
by InvestingScope
Dow Jones: Channel Up on 1H with MACD crossing.Dow Jones is trading within a Channel Up on the 1H chart (RSI = 41.064, MACD = -20.100, ADX = 30.196), currently on the bearish leg towards the Higher Low trend-line. The MACD is about to make a green cross, which is a bullsh signal. It can still take a few hours until the formation prices the Higher Low (even sideways) so there is still time to enter. Our TP is 26,500. ** If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
OANDA:US30USDLong
by InvestingScope
Stalking the DJI MegaphoneThis is getting really interesting. It's gonna be a fight between technicals and fundamentals. Recent analyses of FED fire power suggests they have only used only about 1% of their arsenal of 'tools'. This obviously means that there is a lot more room for the north due to FED interventions. But what is market sentiment saying? There is a big fight on. Get your popcorn ready! Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
3
NAS possible Bullish to 10300 ?NAS100 has been bullish last 2 NY sessions. With strong bullish momentum happening within the last hour of each session around 3-4pm EST. Currently price is ranging during Australian and Toyko as it was doing yesterday 6/29/2020. During Pre London and London session I'm going to see if price will break current support at 10134 and head down to liquidity pool at the zone of 10100 to 10085. If i see rejection around that zone I will look for buys during the NY session to push bullish momentum up to 10200 and then on to 10250 and 10300. on 6/23/2020 last week the high was 10310. Ultimately my bias is Buys going long for the long term. If your up late you can take shorts down to 10100 or lower until we see exhaustion, during the London session. But I'm headed to bed lets see how NY session goes at 9:30pm EST. Good Night and hit Like if you agree. Subscribe if you want to see more of my breakdowns. Im still learning, yet earning. Focused on Risk management. You will always remain profitable if you have more wins than losses.
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by TradingTrav101