Wallstreet
US30 Index - Free Fall To 29000 Is RealAs you guys can see on my previous prediction, US30 index will fall free fall to 29000 and this is become true and real.
I have seen in my dream and it is like being a dejavu. Today China the major country with the supplies start to kick back their operation despite risk.
If China not settling their operation resume to normal, the price of AAPL apple and US30 wall street will going to bearish instantly. It is already one month that China had halt their production line. This chain supply like a domino effect and all hoping that China will recover soon on their productivity performance.
Nasdaq fell more than 100 point from holiday close as investor started to consider the impact of the virus on business operations.
The business impact appears to be of much greater concern to the market rather than the health emergency as the coronavirus infections still appears to be primarily a Wuhan phenomenon and cases ex-Hubai province and much more importantly ex-mainland China appears to be contained.
As I wrote the article, GOLD XAUUSD has bullish above the 1604.00 key level. Traders started to buy Gold as their safe heaven economic sentiment.
BITCOINS/USD has risen up to 2600 points.
The longer the crisis persists without any signs of global spread the less market fear the consequences.
The longer this crisis last, the uncertainty and losing the faith of investor to purchase the stock market.
To be in confident to purchase it, must have to get rid the insecurity of the investor.
If cant, all the stock investor will move towards on buying XAUUSD GOLD instead.
Hint: I am expecting this indices of US30 will going to bearish free fall down to 28250
By Zezu Zaza
DJI - Wall Street - melt up or melt down coming - your choice. Central banks around the world are coordinating in a last stand to prevent global meltdown. So - they're about to decide massive liquidity injections into 'their economies'. China, the USA, Singapore are already on board. Expect Germany to follow cuz the German economy is on the brink of a recession.
What this could mean is a number of things:
1. The punters love it - and blow the markets north like nobody's business.
2. The punters reject it - and bail out with cash in hand which they'll pump into Gold (a better investment at this time).
3. Or - heavy volatility in coming days in a massive bear-bull fight, before the markets make a final decision.
All of this stuff has been triggered by an itty bitty virus that disrespects everybody. The world is now waking up to how central China is to global supply chains of commodities, manufactured parts, goods and services.
No predictions from me - as I have no working crystal ball.
Disclaimers & Declarations : This is not financial advice or encouragement to trade in securities. If you act on anything said here and lose your money, kindly sue yourself!
Gap everywhere, if this is a top ....Low volumes, overbought, new records. If we are really at the top, I want to report the gaps left in the past 6 months. In the event of a fall, the strategy plans to increase positions with each closing of the gap. The first one is very close, I would wait to see the strength of the descent.
Dow Jones: Bullish MACD but top may be near.DJI is extending the 1D Channel Up (RSI = 60.150, MACD = 193.000, ADX = 15.316, Highs/Lows = 339.6071) after the MACD turned bullish following the January 31st bottom. However as the overall bullish pattern is the 1W Channel Up that started in July 2019, is near its Higher High trend line again, there is a high chance of a pull back.
Last time the 1D MACD turned bullish above the 0.000 mark, Dow peaked at +6%. We are close to that level (29,850) now, so a pull back towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend line) is realistic. If however the index follows the MACD bullish reversal patterns made below the 0.000 mark, then the extension can go as high as +8% (roughly 30,500) before the pull back to the MA50.
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WATCH OUT - POTENTIAL BLACK SWAN EVENT - VIRUS ATTACKA 'black swan' event is something out of the blue - that creates systemic risk. The 2019-nCOV (virus) is potentially one such thing.
The markets have not been prepared for this - at all. Could it be the pinprick that pops the 'tech bubble' that influences markets globally?
The shock waves of this itty bitty virus are totally unexpected. I go into some price action in the last few days, on the DJI and explain some of the dangerous features of nCOV.
China has basically been quarantined by the international community. This is certainly not good news. It's an unofficial quarantine. Lots of nations have limited contact or isolated China in various ways.
The virus is one of the most spreadable in history of all viruses but with a low lethality. That means millions of people could be infected but only about 2% killed by it. And that means the death toll could be serious over weeks, months or years.
There is no treatment at this time and no vaccine. Even if a vaccine is developed, vaccinated the whole world is not a workable option. In addition the wide spread of the virus means that it can mutate - rendering any vaccine developed, as ineffective.
The next big question is when will this quarantine on China be lifted. It could take months, or probably years - depending on what the nCOV virus does next.
There is chatter in the blogosphere that the FED will come to rescue the markets from the virus.. like pfffft! The FED has a lesson coming to them.
Disclaimer : This screencast is not intended to advise on taking a position in the markets or making transactions. If you lose your money in the markets, kindly sue yourself.
How do virus attacks affect Wall Street?This is a very short presentation on how previous virus attacks have affected Wall Street (daily time frame). I go back to 2013, plotting what was seen.
This is relevant in relation to the recent Wuhan coronavirus (WCV). Mainstream media have referred to WCV as a "deadly virus". This is frankly nonsense based on current data.
The case fatality ratio (CFR) is an important measure in assessing lethality of a virus. The CFR for influenza A(H1N1) in 2009 was 0.45%. For ebola virus, it is overall >50%.
For the Wuhan coronavirus (WCV) which may not be one virus strain, the CFR is currently estimated at <3% (I cannot provide references here but people can contact me for links to info).
But hold on - the 3% is not (at this time) for large populations of those infected. The average age group of people who have been killed WCV is currently around 60. Did I say 'average'? Yes - I did (which means I know there are some people who have been around 30). Attribution of WCV has also not been 100% caused by WCV either. The 'average' age group may fall (or increase) with time.
In summary
- ebola is definitely a deadly virus - the markets barely flinched if at all to Ebola.
- estimates of lethality of WCV are currently not robust.
My conclusion -
The media is responsible for selling its news.
The media have been irresponsible in feeding panic, in selling its news.
News and panic are what rules markets more than hard facts and figures.
Will the WCV outbreak be the pin that pricks the bubble? I don't know. It could well be the first of the dominoes to fall, setting off a chain reaction for slow burn down - instead of a serious correction. OR - WCV may well be insignificant. If it is, then expect a raging bull market to rebel! I cannot foresee the future!
Declarations & Disclaimers: I am not a virus expert, nor a financial expert. This post is opinion only based on data fully available in the public domain. Opinions here are not be be relied upon in making financial or trading decisions. If you who reads this makes such decisions, your losses are your own - should you suffer a loss. You sue yourself if you lose money.
Sprint: On a possible bottom. Conditions for buy.Sprint posted a strong rebound yesterday as it found Support on the 4.80 - 4.70 Zone. At the moment it is still on a strong 6-month Channel Down (1W RSI = 34.548, MACD = -0.393, ADX = 48.905, Highs/Lows = -0.4078) but the conditions for a long term bullish reversal may have already started to emerge.
The strongest bullish confirmation would be a break above the 1D MA50. As you see on the chart that would coincide with a cross over of the Lower High trend line of the 6 month Channel Down (dashed line). Additionally the RSI may be repeating the bottom sequence of early 2018.
If the 1D MA50 gets crossed, we will buy targeting the 6.10 - 6.25 Zone.
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UBER: Close to the 0.618 Fibonacci. Pull back buy opportunity.UBER has recovered 50% so far of the sell-off since the July high and is now close to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. With the RSI on extremely overbought levels both on 4H (RSI = 85.104) and 1D (RSI = 84.218), we expect a pull back and consolidation here within the 0.382 and 0.618 width.
The 4H RSI is on a Channel Up since the November bottom and its support levels are as seen on the chart. Use them accordingly. We expect UBER to soon recover its highs and our Target Zone is 44.70 - 47.00.
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Dow Jones: Buy opportunity on a pull back.DJI is trading on a 2 month long 1D Channel Up (RSI = 67.760, MACD = 270.600, ADX = 45.275, Highs/Lows = 174.000) that seems to have reached an inner peak. With the RSI on the 4H chart also on the Resistance Zone, we are expecting a minor pull back that will give us the opportunity for a long position.
The current Support Zone is 28,900 - 29,010 with 28,700 as the last resort since the MA50 (4H) is there. Our TP is 29,600. Attention is needed as a break below the 4h MA50 risks testing the MA200.
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US30 OutlookLooking at US30 we can see a clear uptrend as we have been for some time now. We have recently made new highs once again and we are looking to make a pullback before possibly moving upwards. Personally I will wait to see price action around the marked zones and will place a trade if one presents. IF we break to the downside we could see a nice drop before pulling back to key areas in order to bring more orders into the market before pushing further.
29000 COULD BE THE MOST IMPORTANT NUMBER IN THE WORLD!Get ready! There are only two directions for price; UP or DOWN. In this screencast I show why the zone around 29000 could be the most important. See the broadening wedge. Price could go either way.
If you believe that the FED and Mr Trump is gonna save the world, go long at 29000. If you believe a crash is coming take a short. If you believe 29 is a prime number of importance - act on it. :)
Friday is not a good day for a crash. So if one has to happen it's better on a Monday. Hmmmm.. crash? What am I talking about!? Some may have heard about that a plane was brought down allegedly by Iranian missiles. This is in the news. American forces tracked a missile from Iran exploding near the location of the plane. An explosion was seen by the military. Remnants of a missile identified as Russian Tor M1 photographed near the crash site. Mysteriously, the supposed missile disappeared and then we're told it was never there. Obviously - it was photoshopped in - innit! I believe anything I'm told - right?
Boeing shares rose on news that it was probably a missile that brought down the plane. Nothing surprising there.
Anyways, Friday is not a good day for confirming that it was a missile (and I'm not saying it was). Monday - watch out.
Disclaimers & Declarations: I've reported only information that is well in the public domain. I do not have any information other than reported facts. I have no way of knowing what reported facts in the media are the whole truth. I have made no political statements. References to Iran are part of what is in the public domain. I express no opinions other than what these matters mean for the markets. As usual this is not a recommendation to trade securities. If you lose our money, kindly sue yourself.
Dow Jones: Bearish divergence on RSI.DJI managed to recover the drop that (marginally) broke the 1D Channel Up resuming the bullish technical action (RSI = 64.012, MACD = 186.600, ADX = 46.489, Highs/Lows = 130.1071). The RSI on the 1D chart is on a bearish divergence though and the last two times that happened the index dropped -3.20% and 5.13%. If the current bearish divergence follows the same patterns then we are looking at two downside targets: 27,965 and 27,400.
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AND WHEN MARKETS PANIC AFTER GOING WILD!The DJI was dented significantly over night by three main events:
1. Trouble in Iran.
2. China - withdrawing some companies from the LSE
3. North Korea - powering up to cause America a headache.
There was panic selling in the middle of the night which started with the news on Iran.
Important trend lines up to 2 hourly were penetrated.
Could this be the pinprick that pops the bubble? We'll only discover - after the pop! LOL
WHEN MARKETS GO WILD! The DJI, S&P500, Australia200 and the DAX all went wild today.
No predictions in here. This is just the big picture of the daily time frame.
I have to say that I am totally surprised by the DJI pump north. This markets is highly overvalued something like 17-19 times that of fair value for stocks comprising it. I won't go on much longer about that, we've seen markets go wild before e.g. dotcom bubble.
Theory of curves and rising wedges failed here. These things do no rule markets.
The FED has given the implicit guarantee, and the big boys took the markets well north.
There's QE4 and soon QE5 coming up. So north is now the greater probability. I'm out because this is a highly unstable situation. Oh - but it's not QE because the FED says so - riggggghhtt! LOL.
The POP is coming - and everybody wants to know when. Look, it's like bad weather. You can see the storm clouds gathering but you just don't know when the heavens will open on you with a downpour.
DOW GOING TO 30K OR BACK TO 27K ?US30 price is in a wedge pattern but it's not yet enough conirmation to sell it. So,we will wait for more conformations. Please give a follow to get the updates on time :)
In H4, we will wait for an impulsive move to the downside and trade the pullback.
H4 :
Traders! if you like my ideas and do take the same trade, please write it in comment so we can manage the trade together.
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Disclaimer : The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions.
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