Walmart primary trend remains bullish.Walmart - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 139.11 (stop at 134.61)
Levels below 140 continue to attract buyers.
The primary trend remains bullish.
This stock has seen good sales growth.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
A higher correction is expected.
Our profit targets will be 150.11 and 152.11
Resistance: 150.00 / 151.12 / 153.00
Support: 148.15 / 147.00 / 145.00
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Walmart
Walmart: Within Reach 🙌Ever been to the supermarket and couldn’t reach the topmost rack? Walmart seems to have a similar problem, struggling to let go of the mark at $150.12 to hit the turquoise zone between $152.54 and $161.76. However, we expect the share to touch at this area soon to finish wave B in turquoise. This done, it should turn downwards, returning below $150.12 and slipping further below the support at $136.09 to complete wave (A) in magenta. After a short counter movement back above $136.09, the share should drop below the support at $117.27 and into the gray zone between $116.49 and $105.01 to place the final low of wave IV in gray, which should then initiate a new upwards trend. There is a 37% chance, though, that Walmart could shoot through the turquoise zone and conquer the resistance at $161-76 directly.
Walmart diamond top / H&S with targets below $WMTHead and Shoulders. Diamond top. Insider selling to the max. Bank nonsense. The drop to create bottom of diamond dwarfs the covid drop. Walmart would theoretically do well wen recession but not sure if the stock will hold up based off these technicals.
Is it a good time to invest in Walmart stock?Amidst the global economic and political turmoil marked by high inflation and surging interest rates, some things remain constant, like people buying groceries at Walmart. However, the stock price of the world's largest retailer by revenue has dropped by 13% from its all-time high in April last year. The question is whether it's a good time to invest in the company or hold back.
In the fiscal year that ended on January 31, 2022, Walmart's revenues stood at $611 billion, a 6.7% increase from the previous year. The same-store sales in the US or comps increased by 6.6%, and the e-commerce revenue in the country rose by 12%. Sam's Club warehouse brand sales also increased by double-digit percentages.
Despite its already vast base, Walmart's revenues grew at a rapid pace, but the macroeconomic factors weighed on its margins. Gross margins fell from 25.1% in the fiscal year 2021 to 24.1% in the fiscal year 2022. Operating margins also fell from 4.5% to 3.3%. The rising costs of commodities and supply chain costs are responsible for this decline.
During the Q4 2022 earnings report, the CEO stated that "In periods of inflation like this one, middle-income families, lower-middle-income families, and even wealthier families become more price sensitive." He also said, "Because of its price structure, Walmart should still be in a good position to perform well." The management expects the company's revenues to grow by 2.5-3% in the fiscal year 2023, which is more aligned with its historical performance.
Walmart is an attractive investment for several reasons in the current economic and market environment. It's a stable and long-established company that has been in business for over 60 years. The company's massive size allows it to offer low prices continuously, which is particularly important during economic downturns.
Additionally, Walmart is a consistently profitable company, with a net income of $11.7 billion last fiscal year. The company's bottom line looks appealing in times when investors favor solid assets over speculative growth stocks. Moreover, the company has been paying dividends since 1974, and the payments have increased each year. The management has enough flexibility to keep increasing the payout.
On the other hand, some investors may choose not to invest in Walmart. The company's scale is an advantage, but it also means that it has limited reinvestment opportunities. Its sales have grown at an average annual rate of 2.7% over the past decade, in line with the US GDP growth rate. The company doesn't seem to have any room for expansion to outpace the economy.
Furthermore, Walmart's stock price has only risen by 93% over the past ten years, compared to the S&P 500's growth rate of 152%. The company's inability to outperform the market during a time when asset prices were at their best due to quantitative easing does not bode well for its future earnings potential.
Finally, Walmart's current valuation may not justify its price. The company's stock trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 33, which is more expensive than the broader market. Moreover, at a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 23, Walmart's stock also trades at a premium compared to its competitors, such as Target. This discrepancy doesn't seem reasonable, given that Target has grown its earnings faster than Walmart over the past ten years and had higher average margins.
In conclusion, while Walmart's stock can be a good portfolio backbone and provide investors with a steady stream of income, it's unlikely to generate significant returns in the coming years.
BBY Best Buy - A Ripe Opportunity for 50%Best Buy is a company that I never liked. However, recently I had to deal with them and found that the stores are in much nicer shape, the inventory is much better, the web experience is actually pretty clean, and moreover, at least here in Canada, there's actually nowhere else to buy electronics. They pretty much have the market cornered.
What I found is that while prices were low because consumer spending is in the toilet, inventory is also low because China has been smashed up pretty hard by the Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic, and the situation with Xi and his Chinese Communist Party is likely to get a lot worse before it even begins to try to get better.
You have to be careful with equity longs over the next 4 months, especially the more bullish it gets, because the Chinese Communist Party's collapse is the big black swan that nobody believes is coming, but that the US and Wall Street seem to know is on the way.
When the calamity unfolds, a lot of things are going to change in the world. No human beings are really prepared for what is going to happen. Humans and governments always make their plans, but reality always gets the last laugh.
What this ultimately means is that for the electronics sector, demand should increase because we're heading into the spring and summer months of the North American markets, but supply will be low because the guys who were making things have been disrupted, and in the worst way.
In other words, we're looking at a bullish impulse inside of prevailing bearish conditions, which is the premium short setup. But often the best short setups are precluded by outstandingly easy long setups, which is where we're at with Best Buy.
I currently believe that since the prevailing narrative across all markets has been so bearish for so long, that we're about to get a bear trap that will see equities and indexes dump rather aggressively, because everything is about to go off hard to the upside.
I believe that the real market crash will begin to unfold somewhere around the end of July of this year, and in the meantime, markets are going to pump while Wall Street gets positioned on the real "Big Short."
So for Best Buy, there are some nuances to the chart that's been setup.
One is that on the monthly bars, the price action can only be described as unclear.
COVID and October lows have never breached or even touched the long term trendline, and yet there's an unbroken double bottom at $49. While double bottoms normally give me a big reason to believe they're about to become a magnet, I think that going from $86 to $45 in the next few months is just really not the most likely option.
On the weekly bars, we get a much more lucid situation:
Weekly, Best Buy is still trading well below equilibrium of the range measured from the ATH to the October low, and under the 200 DMA. None of these are bullish factors, but we also want to buy weakness when going long.
In terms of upside targets, Best Buy has an enormous gap over $116 that was never touched on the way down. Instead, the MM algo left a spike candle at $112 and proceeded to dumpster it.
Both of these areas become targets to aim for on a long trade.
On the daily candles, recent price action was clearly a breakout play against the 200 DMA, with the recent FOMC rate pump activity being a re-raid on the August of '22 highs.
This means I expect a pullback near the lows, primarily because price algorithms like to return towards lows after taking big highs during news drivers. But I feel it's also very obvious on Best Buy because there's a nice fat gap under the equilibrium between October lows, the recent highs, and the daily 200 DMA.
Upside from the $75 area to the $115 gap is 50% and the time horizon is roughly 3 months. Stop out if it sets a new low.
Good luck, and don't get caught being afraid on coming price action. Even more importantly, don't get caught being greedy if markets start to pump.
Humanity will soon face an enormous tribulation that will be hard to pass. More will be at stake than trading accounts.
WALMART : Fundamental View and Technical Analysis. It appears that more high-income consumers are now shopping at Walmart, which could be a sign of the growing economic pressures caused by rising interest rates, high inflation, and increased gasoline prices. Walmart recently reported its Q4 earnings, which showed strong revenue growth globally, with sales up almost 8% in constant currency terms to $164 billion. Sales at comparable stores (comp) were up over 8% YoY, while sales at Sam's Club were up 12% and 22%, respectively. E-commerce sales also saw a notable increase of 17% in the US.
However, Walmart's growth in sales seems to be largely driven by price increases in groceries, with food inflation rising above the national rate. This could suggest that consumers are buying only the essentials, as sales for other merchandise like toys, electronics, home goods, and clothing have declined. Walmart predicts that US sales will grow a maximum of 5%, and earnings will fall to a range of $5.90 to $6.05 per share.
While these challenges are concerning, Walmart still looks capable of continuing to gain market share even during a potential recession. In fact, its strength in groceries is worth noting, with comparable sales growing by tens of percent. However, since food inflation rose in the mid-tenths of a percent, well above the reported national inflation rate, it appears that retail sales growth is indeed driven by price increases.
Moreover, more than half of the increase in grocery prices is attributable to high-income consumers who find it necessary to shop in the lower market. While this may be a long-term advantage for Walmart, as many of these new customers may stay with the company after inflation finally subsides, it suggests that these are particularly difficult times. When even high-income households are saving, it's a worrying sign for the rest of us.
It's worth noting that Walmart is returning more cash to shareholders than it is generating in free cash flow, which may concern some investors. Cash earnings for the year rose to $12.2 billion, but Walmart paid out $6.1 billion in dividends and repurchased $9.9 billion worth of stock for a total of $16 billion. This is not what investors would like to see from the retailer for a long period of time.
If you're an investor, you may want to consider using this opportunity to invest in protective stocks that may survive or even prosper during a downturn. While Walmart may not be a discount stock, it could still be a long-term refuge from any storm. However, a National Association for Business Economics survey warns that 58% of economists believe there is more than a 50% chance of a recession in the next 12 months, with 33% predicting it will come in Q2 and 21% believing it will start in the third.
Overall, it's clear that Walmart's strong revenue growth is a good sign, but the challenges it faces, such as declining profits and the potential for a market downturn, cannot be ignored. As consumers continue to buy only the essentials and high-income shoppers opt for discounted groceries, it's important to stay vigilant and prepare for any potential economic challenges ahead.
LOWE'S - Look For Longs. $245 Is the Target for ShortsQuick read, for once.
Lowe's is down 7% following ER. Another ER dump. This is really notable for a few reasons:
1. Big moves on the first of the month always make me think reversals
2. Lowe's isn't really bearish on monthly or weekly bars
3. The real short setup for economic disaster is in the $240 range
4. Dump swept out weekly/monthly/daily sellside pivots
5. Gap fill
6. Overall market is not as bearish as it was during last Lowe's ER dump
7. Equities market makers love to "gamma squeeze" rip the other way after a little bit.
However, the weekly bars do show a three drives-style pattern
But it's only the wicks over range equilibrium and it's never traded to a deep premium, which is what you really want to see before new lows are going to be set.
Monthly shows that this isn't a bear market, either.
March 31 $200 calls lost $8.5 on the news.
You still have to be super careful because of geopolitical risks:
1. The Chinese Communist Party has not reported a single COVID case since Jan. 10, and this is almost impossible to be real. The reality is that the CCP is likely very, very weak right now and could fall at any time.
2. Elon Musk has warned, which confirms with multiple other sources, that Russia is about to launch a very large scale offensive in Ukraine. He would know because Starlink is the only thing keeping Ukraine with even a shred of hope in the battle. Equities down, commodities up is what that will result in, just like when the war was launched last year.
3. When it's time for the CCP to go, and it's going to happen very soon, you can expect there to be a clash between the India-Russia-Saudi/BRICS type entities and the United States/NATO globalists because everyone wants China. All the "hawkish" chatter on "China" (note it's rarely ever against the CCP itself) (("China" is not "the CCP")) from America is gearing up to take over the Mainland by way of the globalist groomed Chinese nationals it has parented so as to install all the woke globalist things and completely ruin what little is left of the country's 5,000 year culture as they go for a real New World Order/One World Government
With the way everything is acting I kind of suspect Lowe's may not be finished dumping, but imo this is one of those situations where one should "be greedy only when others are fearful."
$186 would be a really sweet entry and you have to sit on your hands for 2 or 3 months or at least roll out your winners.
See my Nasdaq/SPX/Dow calls for thoughts on the markets at large and potential timing.
July is the target for when things really get scary.
A Leading Indicator for US EconomyCME: E-Mini S&P Retail Select Industry Futures ( CME:SXR1! )
Last Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the latest Personal Income and Outlays Report. Personal income gained $131.1 billion (0.6%). Disposable personal income (DPI) added $387.4 billion (2.0%) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) grew $312.5 billion (1.8%) for the month of January.
Data shows that U.S consumer is resilient. Wage gains and inflation pushed spending growth to a two-year high. In the past decade, PCE gained 60% to $18 trillion. More recently, it surged 50% in the three years since the start of the COVID pandemic.
The hotter-than-expected data indicated that US economy was nowhere near a recession. Additional data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed robust job growth in January and the lowest unemployment rate in half a century.
Wary of bigger and longer-lasting Fed rate hikes on the way, all major US stock indexes turned negative in the month of February. As of last Friday, Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 3.8% month-to-date, while S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 recorded -2.6%, -0.8%, and -2.4%, respectively.
Consumer Spending Outlook
Consumer spending accounts for over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. While PCE shot up more than expected last month, it is a lagging indicator and only confirms what happened in the past. Could U.S. consumers spend out of the peril of a recession?
Retailer stock prices are forward-looking and reflect collective market consensus of how much free cash flow the retailers could earn, discounted by their cost of capital. There are indications that the shopping spree may be ending soon.
Last week, Walmart said its U.S. consumer spending started the year strong, but that it expects households to back off through the year, producing weak fiscal-year U.S. sales growth of 2% to 2.5%. Home Depot said consumer spending is holding up, but that it expects a flat sales-growth year overall, with declining profits.
This is a troubling signal. Retailers are supposed to benefit the most from growing consumer spending, but their stock prices have been losing steam in February. As of Friday, Home Depot ( NYSE:HD ) has a year-to-date return of -6.1%, while Walmart ( NYSE:WMT ) is mostly flat (-0.8%). Other retailers with declining stock prices include Dollar General ( NYSE:DG ), -13.2%; Walgreens Boots Alliance ( NASDAQ:WBA ), -3.7%, and Casey’s General Stores ( NASDAQ:CASY ), -3.8%.
Walmart reported Q4 and FY2023 (ending January) revenue growth of 7.3% and 6.7%, respectively. Its operating income fell 5.5% and 21.9%, for the same periods. Digging deeper into Walmart’s earnings release, I find that it keeps sales growing by expanding its grocery business, but those sales are less profitable than general merchandise categories, where consumer spending is leveling off or shrinking.
In theory, the growth of the biggest US retailer could be attributed to one of the following:
• General growth of consumer spending (economic expansion);
• Good business strategy and market share growth (economic trend unknown);
• Consumer downgrades spending from department stores (economic downturn);
• Price increases (inflation).
My interpretation:
1. Consumers tend to keep up with the same living standards. When inflation hits, they maintain the same purchasing habit. Higher price drives spending growth.
2. As inflation deepens, consumers get fewer merchandises with the same budget.
3. Consumers downgrade purchases from department stores to discount stores, and switch to generic products from brand-named products.
4. In a downturn, higher-ended stores get hit first, and discount stores get hit last.
While Walmart manages to grow revenue by doubling down on grocery and online businesses, the weakness in general merchandizes uncovers the real trend of consumer spending leveling off. We may disagree on whether a recession will be coming, however, data from Walmart and Home Depot indicates that the U.S. retail sector is in trouble.
S&P Retail Select Industry Index
S&P Retail Select Industry Index may be a better benchmark for the U.S. retail sector, comparing to the lagging government data and company specified performance metrics.
The index comprises of stocks in the S&P Total Market Index that are classified in the GICS retail sub-industry. Total-10 constituents by index weight are:
• Carvana (CVNA)
• Wayfair (W)
• Sally Beauty (SBH)
• Stitch Fix (SFIX)
• Boot Barn (BARN)
• Children’s Place (PLCE)
• Qurate Retail (QRTEA)
• Leslie (LESL)
• EVgo (EV)
• Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)
One-year chart above shows that CME E-Mini S&P Retail Select Industry (SXR) Futures tracks the trend of S&P 500 but illustrates higher volatility in the first two months of 2023.
Each SXR contract is notional at $10 times the index. At Friday settlement price of 7004, one March contract (SXRH3) is valued at $70,040. Each futures contract (long and short) requires an initial margin of $5,700. When the underlying index moves 1 point, trader’s futures account would gain or lose $10.
At present, I do not foresee a decisive trend of the S&P 500. It could trend up, go down or move sideways depending on how the Fed rate hikes, inflation, unemployment and geopolitical crises play out.
However, this does not prevent me from expressing a bearish view on the US retail sector. Establishing a SXR short futures position would be appropriate in the negative outlook.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Walmart in an effort to regain recent losses Shares in Walmart Inc (symbol ‘WMT’) made a relatively aggressive rally in October and November only to lose some of these gains in December until early February. Currently the price seems to be making a correction to the upside but the real question is if this is actually a correction or a new bull run. The company’s earnings report for the fiscal quarter ending January 2023 is set to be released on Tuesday 21st of February, before market open. The consensus EPS for Q1 is $1,51 compared to Q1 2022’s $1,53.
‘Walmart announced recently they are closing down 7 underperforming stores across 3 states. The retail giant is taking measures to be at its prime especially after continuous decline in its share price in the last couple of months.’ said Antreas Themistokleous, an analyst at Exness 'The current ratio of the company (its ability to repay short-term liabilities) is at 93% which is negative news for the investors since a good ratio would be above 100%.
On the technical side the price is trading exactly on the upper band of the Bollinger bands indicating great volatility for the company share and also trading above all moving averages and the daily bullish trendline.
The Stochastic oscillator is moving up but not in the extreme overbought level just yet so a continuation to the upside for the price is very likely. If this is the case then we might see some resistance around the $148 area which is just above the 23.6% of the daily Fibonacci retracement level.
In the case of a move down the first point of support will be possibly seen around the $141 area just above 50% of the Fibonacci and the 100-day moving average.
Walmart support could prove difficult to breakdown.Walmart - 30d expiry - We look to Buy at 138.44 (stop at 133.86)
Levels below 138 continue to attract buyers.
The medium term bias is neutral.
138.27 has been pivotal.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
The stock is currently outperforming in its sector.
Support could prove difficult to breakdown.
Our profit targets will be 149.88 and 152.88
Resistance: 142.00 / 145.61 / 147.86
Support: 138.17 / 135.00 / 130.00
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
BBBY Bed Bath and Beyond - A High Risk Scalp Is All That's LeftBed Bath and Beyond is a classic case of why you stay the hell away from Reddit, which is partially owned by the Chinese Communist Party's Tencent, and good for very little besides indoctrinating readers with atheism, socialism, Marxist-Leninism's garbage, and a lot of pornography.
I remember during the $10+ August run seeing posts on WallStreetBets and the BBBY subs encouraging people to buy and file paperwork with their brokers for self custody because Buy Buy Baby was supposed to get split off and lead to a moon mission.
Also, RYAN F'IN COHEN!!!!
Other fun posts were propaganda like "Wow this BBBY store just opened near my house! Bullish!" and "Bought my entire family a membership for Christmas xD."
Reddit is not social media. It's a social marketing and social influencing platform where communities are organized from the ground up by professional public relations firms.
Enlighten to it, already.
If you risk your money on the basis of what some alpha-schtick avatar with slicked back hair, a suit, and sunglasses says, you really can only blame yourself when you wind up holding a 95% loser, which is what this thing has become.
Reuters reported on Jan. 5 that BBBY is on the verge of missing a $1.5 billion debt payment on Feb. 1, which will give it 30 more days before it will default, and is on the verge of bankruptcy.
And over the course of 2 days, you lost 47%.
Earnings is coming up on Jan. 10, and for those who bought $1.80 and $1.30 thinking you got a deal, the all time low isn't far away at 88 cents, which was the first month BBBY traded for all the way back in 1992.
You should absolutely expect Bed Bath and Beyond will post dumpster fire numbers with heavy warnings to investors about how things are about to get a lot worse before you buy the dip.
That being said, the only potential profitable trade on this thing before it declares bankruptcy is for it to do something like the piece of trash Upstart Holdings, another Reddit pump and dump, did on its last earnings after it reported a 200% miss on EPS, with a good old fashioned dump and squeeze before falling even farther towards the 12th Layer of Hell.
And the good news is that if you don't get stopped out, you might get lucky and get a retracement to the daily trendline at roughly $2.40 that you can sell at, if the markets go wild on a Thursday CPI miss and whatever ostensibly bullish narrative Wall Street wants to pump FOMC rate hikes with.
SPX500 / ES / SPY - Enjoy the Party While It Lasts
But what I would like to point out to you is that BBBY declaring bankruptcy means that the stock will approach $0.00 legit. In the best case scenario, you might get a buying opportunity before it gets delisted so that you can hold your bag until someone buys its assets and maybe the stock will be worth something again if they don't just liquidate the chain to pay creditors.
A good example is found in Hertz HTZ
It fell from $20 to 0.44 cents and got delisted, and stayed that way for almost 2 years. Then it was worth a lot.
This is called "gambling" not "distressed investing," however.
Another chance you have is found in the precedent of this piece of crap APE "All People Equal" (Thanks Karl Marx and Mao Zedong! Absolute egalitarianism and class struggle is sooooooooo cool!!!!) from the AMC split, which absolutely annihilated really, really bad short sellers trying to pile on to $0.00 once it fell into the 0.60s.
You might also get this kind of squeeze on BBBY if there is news that it somehow won't miss its debt payments, and then $3.50 is incoming. Maybe RYAN F'IN COHEN will Superman and cape in to save the day.
Bed Bath and Beyond is another one of those garbage-style retail outlets that existed to hustle stuff made in the Chinese Communist Party's factories to Americans and Canadians, and now that it's been replaced in usefulness by stuff like Amazon, truly has limited value as a business model.
Amazon AMZN - Manufacturing Support
But they have a lot of stores and a lot of infrastructure, so maybe someone will come along and buy them on the cheap, resurrect BBBY, split Buy Buy Baby, and you'll make a fortune.
If not, you can always complain about Ken Griffin and Citadel with the Redditor Wumao that you still think are fellow bagholders because you don't want to sober up and get off the damn computer already.
Look, if you take this trade, it's a scalp. And it's a risky scalp that might be nice. You literally need to buy the earnings crash, wait and see if Nasdaq wants to go up on Jan. 12, and get out in a profit.
This isn't something to buy and hold, no matter how some "alpha" kid with a bored apes NFT for a profile picture barks about how they "like the stock."
Good. Grief. Don't. Hold. This. Piece. Of. Crap.
Some influencer might "like the stock," but don't you "like" your money?
You can't take BBBY shitcoins to the grocery store to buy rice and you can't take them to the gas station to buy gas.
Never forget this. And never forget to ditch Reddit and the Chinese Communist Party forever.
Get off the computer and go outside more. You'll trade better and lose less/make more money, too.
WMT Walmart Inc. Options After The EarningsLooking at the WMT Walmart Inc. options chain after the earnings, i would buy the $145 strike price Puts with
2023-1-20 expiration date for about
$3.65 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
WALMART may be approaching the end of this rallyWalmart Inc. (WMT) has been rising since the low of the June 13 2022 weekly (1W) candle. Along the way it broke above the key Resistance of the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and after it held the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), it has established both as Support levels long-term.
There are however two longer term patterns to consider that supersede those MA periods, and those are the Megaphone pattern since November 2020 and the Higher Lows trend-line/ Zone since November 09 2015.
As the 1W RSI enters the Resistance zone that is holding since 2016 and only broke once, we have to start considering that the top is near especially as the price is approaching the Higher Lows zone of the Megaphone. As you see since 2016, every major test of the 1W RSI Resistance Zone hit at least the 1W MA50. This suggests that if you bought Walmart a few weeks back, you may start looking to book profits and re-buy lower either on the 1W MA50 or even a little lower, the closer to the Higher Lows trend-line, the better.
If the price breaks first above the Megaphone's top (Higher Highs trend-line), it is an instant buy and a new bullish pattern will emerge.
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Walmart, Target unveil diverging economic outlooksWalmart and Target released diverging outlooks for the final quarter of 2022 as the companies' respective recent financial results show how rising inflation prompts consumers in the US to be extra mindful and plan their purchases instead of becoming abrupt buyers who will end up buying more than intended.
The change in consumer behavior benefited retail corporation Walmart, which generates much of its sales from groceries, and somehow took away sales from big box department store chain Target, which is a destination more for top-up shopping.
Consumers becoming extra careful of their spending can be attributed to inflation and concerns about the US economy heading into a recession.
The annual inflation rate in October slowed to 7.7%, compared with the 8.2% in September, according to figures released in November. The latest figure is lower than the consensus estimates of 8% and marked the lowest inflation figure since Jan. 22.
However, consumer confidence across the country fell during the month to a three-month low of 102.5 from a 107.8 reading in September despite the slowdown in inflation amid growing concerns regarding the economy.
Opposing outlooks
In the third quarter, Walmart upgrraded its financial outlook for the year after reporting an 8.2% growth in comparable sales and a sustained gain in market share of the grocery sector.
On the other hand, Target downgraded its forecast for the fourth quarter following a 2.7% hike in comparable sales, attributable to a 1.4% rise in traffic growth and a 1.3% increase in average ticket.
Since the release of their respective results, Walmart is up ~10% while Target has fallen ~8%.
Target's failure to hit its profit and revenue targets for the quarter paints a picture of how consumers are becoming more selective of what they spend on.
Saunders said the company's financial results show that people are now spending more on food and grocery staples and not as much on apparel and home goods, which provide better margins for the company.
This is how the behavioral shift becomes beneficial for Walmart. The company prides itself on offering products at "everyday low prices." As Americans become more careful with their spending, this mantra becomes even more appealing.
In addition, grocery items are always a necessity regardless of the soaring prices of products. With the bulk of its sales coming from groceries, this change could be very lucrative for Walmart.
Possible ray of light for the economy
Retail sales across the US in October saw a 1.3% uptick after being unchanged in September. Year over year, sales grew 8.3%.
The better-than-expected growth in retail sales across the US in October suggests consumer spending has picked up early in the fourth quarter of 2022. According to Reuters, this could be beneficial for the US economy, especially amid fears of an incoming recession.
Along with the slowdown in inflation, the solid retail sales for the month elicited cautious optimism that perhaps, the US economy could avoid the expected recession or at least only experience a mild downturn.
But Target's warning of "dramatic changes" in consumer behavior that dragged its third-quarter sales still hangs in the air, eliciting concerns that it may affect sales over the holidays.
Expectations for retail sales in November is a 0.9% rise. The National Retail Federation is forecasting holiday sales for 2022 will grow between 6% and 8% this year. If realized, the expected figure would be lower than the 13.5% hike recorded in the prior-year period even at top end of the range. Even so, it will still be higher than the 4.9% growth average over the past 10 years.
Could WMT be starting its death drop?Here I have market off major zones where price tends to retrace too before a major change of direction. You may also notice the rising wedge headed back that has already started playing itself out. This move will happen over a short period of time. I say this because once enough selling pressure has been established, buyers will fearfully close their longs causing price to move lower which will of course attract more sellers leaving the price only to do one thing...
Nordstrom JWN - A Latent ScalpI hear that the economy is pretty bad right now. So bad that we're in a recession, although the Government doesn't like the word "recession."
The real word to describe the situation humanity is facing that nobody is saying yet, however, is "Depression."
Here in North America, we aren't quite there yet, but no amount of money printing and astroturfing is capable of keeping the true state of the environment, the food supply, the water sources, and our energy reserves hidden for all that much longer.
So, they say that for a company like Nordstrom, it's surely "a strong sell." After all, the whole sector is going down the drain because even the middle-upper class is spending less, and that surely is true.
Yet, one doesn't have to back up the dump truck to buy and hold something for 6 years, either.
Nordstrom's post-dump price action has some unique characteristics. Mainly, that for the better part of two weeks, it's been completely bearish.
It also has not retested the $20 psychological level to find buyers, or rebalanced the dump's gap. That all on its own is peculiar in a market that just loves to flirt with gaps after making them, at least a little bit.
With price trading as low as $16.84 on Friday, a run to $21 yields a 22% trade. Ideally, if price action is to do the pseudo fakeout dump I am expecting when markets open on Tuesday:
SPX / ES - Bull Whips and Bear Saws
One can get in cheaper than $16.84, and then the risk/reward is all the sweeter.
I believe it's without a doubt that an exceptional shakeout is coming in the markets, a fundamental correction that will crack the pre-COVID highs and have everyone questioning what's going to happen with their happiness and their investments.
So JWN Nordstrom is not something you would want to hold. You want to drop it like a hot potato. But its current setup does provide what may be an imminent opportunity.
Walmart WMT Trade setup for 31-August-2022 Walmart(WMT) is in a no trade zone. We need to wait for the stock to show us some direction.
The trend based on the last 2 months shows upside, but the way the stock has fallen into the support area(130-133) doesnt look good.
If the stock moves above 133, we can go long with a price target of 143 and a stop loss of 130.
If the stock moves lower than 130, we can go short witht h price target of 124 and a stop at 133.