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Trump Zelensky and Putin Phone Calls Hi, my name is Andrea Russo and I am a Forex Trader. Today I want to talk to you about how the recent phone calls between Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin have had a significant impact on the financial markets, especially the Forex market. In recent days, US President Donald Trump has had crucial phone conversations with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin. These talks have mainly focused on finding a truce in the conflict in Ukraine and stabilizing international relations. Trump-Zelensky Phone Call The call between Trump and Zelensky was described as "very good" by both leaders. During the conversation, Trump promised support for strengthening Ukraine's air defense, with a focus on the resources available in Europe. In addition, the possibility of the United States taking a role in managing Ukraine's energy infrastructure, such as nuclear power plants, to ensure greater security was discussed2. This has opened up hope for a partial truce, with technical negotiations expected in the coming days in Saudi Arabia. Trump-Putin Call The conversation between Trump and Putin, which lasted about three hours, touched on key issues such as the ceasefire and the need for lasting peace. Both leaders agreed on a path that includes a partial ceasefire on energy infrastructure and negotiations to extend the truce to the Black Sea. In addition, they discussed improving bilateral relations between the United States and Russia, with a focus on economic and geopolitical cooperation5. Impact on the Forex Market These developments had an immediate impact on the Forex market. The prospect of a truce strengthened the Russian ruble (RUB) and the Ukrainian hryvnia (UAH), while the US dollar (USD) showed slight volatility due to the uncertainties surrounding the negotiations. Investors reacted positively to the possibility of geopolitical stabilization, increasing demand for emerging market currencies. However, the market remains cautious, awaiting further details on the negotiations and the actual implementation of the measures discussed. Conclusion The phone calls between Trump, Zelensky and Putin represent a significant step towards resolving the conflict in Ukraine and stabilizing international relations. For Forex traders, these events offer opportunities but also risks, making it essential to closely monitor geopolitical developments and their implications on financial markets.
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
Europe - America War, Impact on Forex Hello, my name is Andrea Russo and today I want to talk to you about an important issue that is shaking up the international market: the trade war between the European Union and the United States. Recently, the European Union responded to the duties imposed by the United States on steel and aluminum with countermeasures worth 26 billion euros. In response, US President Donald Trump threatened to impose 200% duties on all wines, champagnes and spirits from France and other countries represented by the EU2. This escalation of trade tensions will certainly have a significant impact on the FOREX market. Let's see together what the consequences could be: Market Volatility: Trade tensions between two of the world's largest economies will increase the volatility of the FOREX market. Investors will seek safe havens, such as the Swiss Franc (CHF) and the Japanese Yen (JPY), increasing the demand for these currencies. Euro (EUR) depreciation: The euro could come under downward pressure due to concerns about the economic impact of tariffs on key EU sectors, such as wine. The reduction in exports of wine and other alcoholic products could negatively impact the EU's trade balance. US dollar (USD) appreciation: The dollar could strengthen further, as investors view the US as a safe haven in times of economic uncertainty. However, the increase in tariffs could also lead to higher inflation in the US, complicating the Federal Reserve's decisions regarding interest rates. Impact on the currencies of wine exporting countries: The currencies of major European wine exporters, such as the euro (EUR) and the Swedish krona (SEK), could come under downward pressure due to the decrease in exports to the US. In conclusion, the tariff war between the European Union and the US will have a significant impact on the FOREX market. Investors will need to monitor developments closely and adjust their trading strategies accordingly. Stay tuned for more updates and market analysis! Happy trading to all!
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
SPX to dump 30% - 50% for Inflated Expectations in 2026I like to say the narrative follows the price . This was bound to happen after such an overheated year, couple years. Blame whomever you want, in the end its your wallet if you aren't ready to have your expectations met. Best case scenario, the breakout of macro is confirmed after the retest (blue arrows). Worst, more likely case, it smashes down to confirm a double bottom with a strong foundation to form a macro support. The sawtooth can provide opportunities for volatile scalps, but its gonna get gnarly I can already tell.
SP:SPXShort
by D4NKM4CH1N3
What Happens to Global Markets When the Ukraine-Russia War Ends?What Happens to Global Markets When the Ukraine-Russia War Ends? The end of the Ukraine-Russia war will undoubtedly impact major global markets, here’s what we can expect: Oil Market : With tensions easing, oil prices could drop as supply concerns lessen and sanctions ease. However, global demand could still keep prices stable or even high. Gold Market : Gold, a safe-haven asset, might face a decrease in demand as geopolitical uncertainty fades, but if the end of the war leads to global economic instability, gold could remain a strong choice for investors. Forex Market : The end of the conflict could boost the Euro and USD as stability returns to the market. At the same time, the Russian Ruble might face fluctuations as Russia’s economy adjusts to post-war conditions. Crypto Market : Cryptocurrencies may see mixed reactions—some may retreat as confidence in traditional markets rises, but others could flow in if economic uncertainty continues to prevail globally. 🔮 The war's end could bring hope, but it also presents new challenges for markets worldwide. Stay tuned to see how it all plays out!
CFI:WTIShort
by melikatrader94
5
Natural Gas - Supply and DemandAs previously iterated in my writings on crude oil NYMEX:CL1! here and here , my opinion is that conditions favor a bull market in energy products. Crude Oil has gained a few points since the time of publishing, and Natural Gas NYMEX:NG1! appears poised to follow suit. As seen below, most energy markets ( NYMEX:CL1! , NYMEX:NG1! , ICEEUR:BRN1! , NYMEX:RB1! , NYMEX:MBA1! ) have rallied in the last year. The most active, and volatile of the energy products shown in the above chart is Natural Gas $NYMEX:NG1!. There are many reasons it may have rallied since the 2nd quarter of 2020, such as an energy crisis in Texas, and war in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Increasing up to 500% at one point in the last 5 years, though the price has backed off we still observe the market making new highs. There are some very serious considerations in oil and gas, which do not appear to have been of any consideration. Just yesterday, US president Joe Biden elected to place a ban on all future leases on offshore drilling operations. Though he has cited a transition to clean energy as a suitable alternative, there is not much reason for markets to believe him. As mentioned, back in 2021 an unexpected cold snap in Texas led to panic in domestic energy markets as generators and suppliers were unable to meet demand. According to statistics published domestically all around the world including the USA, it is indicated that inflation has subsided as central banks lower rates. Yet as we can see, Natural Gas in the US in particular has continued to rally, and what's more the futures curve indicates market participants expect the price to continue to rise into 2027. This is in spite of the increasing strength of the US Dollar TVC:DXY , which may weigh against the price of Natural Gas. www.bruegel.org In Europe, the situation surrounding the availability of energy products may be even more alarming. Ukraine has elected to not negotiate terms for an extension of a natural gas contract with Russia. There are many pipelines from Russia which supply much of Europe with natural gas, both offshore and through Ukraine. Much of which will have passed through Ukraine and Belarus, since the sabotage of the Nordstream pipelines. As such much of Europe's energy in the last couple years has been Suppled by the USA, though a significant sum from Russia has continued to be supplied through Ukraine. Considering that the US has just made the decision to reduce it's future supply of natural gas, it seems unlikely that it will be able to supply Europe at the same price. In terms of future uncertainty, we can also look at Canada. A major supplier of energy products globally, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has decided to step down, though an election is not slated until October. With Donald Trump taking office in just 13 days, and threatening tariffs, we might anticipate the lack of clear governance over continental trade will have a negative impact on the stability of natural gas markets. In face of volatility and a decreased future demand, North-American as well as European energy markets seem poised to take a strong bullish stance. Besides pipelines, a great deal of import/export in natural gas is done in Liquid Natural Gas (LNG). Due to violence in the Red Sea, carriers of LNG in particular have opted to take the longer route around the horn of Africa. The politics surrounding commercial maritime shipping have become very complicated in the last year, between terrorist attacks, union strikes, blocked shipping lanes and an (allegedly) poor prognosis for the Panama Canal. Which is to express, without bearing too heavy on details of the politics of maritime law, that the future has become uncertain. Since 2022 interest rates have been rising, and as such commercial shipping insurance rates have been rising, war clauses notwithstanding. Since insurance companies are at liberty to play politics, it should leave no doubt in a speculators' mind that they will. Already lobbying efforts have begun to remove EU sanctions on Russian oil exports, for the effect they have had on oceanic insurance. This issue is further discussed in my first post on crude oil. See below the price of Natural gas in the UK over the last year. Natural gas consumption worldwide has been on the rise for the past several decades, as it is sought after as a cleaner and cheaper alternative to crude oil derivatives. It must be considered that beyond supplying energy to the public, this commodity plays an important role in industrial processes and manufacturing. The effect of a reduced supply encompasses a gross majority of the global economy. In fact it is so obvious that the price will rise, the only bear argument I can surmise might be a global conspiracy against energy and the trading of energy products, thus rendering their useless and of little worth. Given the sweeping measures imposed by Biden just 14 days before the end of his presidency, traders should beware of capital controls imposed on these markets. While I am wholly bullish on this market, on every basis from technical to fundamental, it is a SERIOUS risk that trading in these markets will be prohibited through political measures. Sovereign debt is mounting, and inflation threatens to critically exacerbate the issue of interest rates. That being said, markets are markets. Thanks for reading. "It ain't what you don't know that gets you in trouble, it's what you know for sure that just ain't so" -Mark Twain
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by FPS_Denny
CL - Crude Oil confirmation and unwritten potentialHi guys, we are following up with probably one of our favourite assets to participate in. You guessed it right it's CL. Currently the Crude Oil is sitting in a very specific range , which has been traded since late August , until the end of October where we saw a big spike and got out of boundaries due to the escalation in Iran and Israel, of which after the cooling off we got back into the range of 73.00 as a strong resistance line , and 67.00 as a strong support. This range has made a lot of traders stay away from CL, but I do believe that there is potential to be caught. Current analysis and entry : Entry today at a level of 68.90 , with two targets of take profit : Target 1: 71.52 Target 2: 72.92 Now this is the bold move if you don't want to miss out on the current opportunity and your Risk Tolerance is on the higher end. If you want to be more protective and your Risk Tolerance is on the lower side, you can get a Pending Order at the level of 66.61 , and then enter 3 follow up targets Target 1: 68.50 Target 2: 71.05 Target 3: 72.45 P.S. My current opinion is to go with a current entry because the missing out of opportunity is too high ,hence we are seeing more tensions in Israel&Gaza conflict, additionally the tightening of the situation in Ukraine&Russia adds more Fundamental Value, towards a swing on an upside of the Crude Oil. Do let me know in the comments below or in my community what is your thought process and opinion about our favourite Black Gold! Happy Trading!
TVC:USOILLong
by DG55Capital
Brent - Oil waiting for a new war?!Brent oil is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H time frame and is moving in its upward channel. At the bottom of the rising channel, which is also at the intersection with the demand zone, we will look for oil buying positions. In case of a valid failure of the downward trend line, we can witness the continuation of this upward trend. Senior Russian lawmakers have warned that Washington’s decision to allow Kyiv to launch deep strikes into Russia using American long-range missiles will escalate the conflict in Ukraine and could lead to World War III. Vladimir Dzhabarov, the first deputy chairman of the Russian upper house’s foreign affairs committee, stated that Moscow’s response would be immediate. Speaking to the state-run TASS news agency, he remarked, “This is a significant step toward the start of World War III.” Russia’s Ministry of Defense confirmed that its missile defense systems had intercepted five out of six missiles fired. According to the RIA news agency, debris from one of the missiles, part of the U.S. Army’s ATACMS tactical missile system, landed near a military facility in the Bryansk region. Interfax news agency also reported that the attack on Bryansk was confirmed and attributed to Ukraine’s use of ATACMS missiles. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov described Ukraine’s strikes on Russia’s border regions using ATACMS missiles as a clear message of escalating tensions. He also noted that President Vladimir Putin had previously issued warnings about such actions. Mike Waltz, a congressman from Florida, stated on November 18 that the Biden administration’s decision represents another step up the escalation ladder, with no clear end goal in sight. Meanwhile, Donald Trump Jr. warned on X that this move risks sparking “World War III,” echoing Kremlin warnings. Former President Trump has yet to outline a specific plan for ending the war, raising concerns that he might pressure Ukraine into accepting an unfavorable agreement with Russia. In other developments, Francisco Blanch, a commodities strategist at Bank of America, noted that Trump’s pledge to impose hefty tariffs to boost U.S. manufacturing and create jobs could lower commodity prices. Speaking on Bloomberg TV, he remarked, “Trump’s priority is the U.S. economy.” Trump has proposed a 20% tariff on all foreign goods and a 60% tariff on Chinese imports. Experts warn that such a strategy could lead to inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, the Biden administration has halted issuing LNG export licenses to countries without free trade agreements with the U.S., citing the need to study the environmental, economic, and national security impacts of such exports. Additionally, a report reveals that BP’s ambitious efforts five years ago to transform from an oil company to a low-carbon energy business have been reversed. BP is now focusing on reclaiming its position as an oil and gas giant, addressing investor concerns over future profitability. Competitors like Shell and Equinor have similarly scaled back their green energy plans due to the energy shock from the Ukraine war and the declining profitability of renewable projects. BP CEO Murray Auchincloss plans to invest billions in new oil and gas projects in the Gulf of Mexico and the Middle East while slowing down its low-carbon operations. The company has halted 18 initial hydrogen projects and announced plans to sell off wind and solar operations. Both BP and its competitors continue to invest in low-carbon energy but are focusing more on quickly profitable sectors like biofuels. Offshore wind and hydrogen projects that have already commenced will proceed, with additional investments considered only if competitive returns are assured.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by Ali_PSND
USDCNY | Market outlook The USD/CNY strengthened on Tuesday as a stronger U.S. dollar and concerns over a weak Chinese economy put pressure on the Yuan. Recent data from China revealed that manufacturing activity fell to a six-month low in August, while growth in new home prices also slowed during the same period. Additionally, the property sector has yet to respond positively to Beijing's series of stimulus measures, continuing to drag down the overall economy.
Short
by DynamicCapital-FX
German 10 year bund (yield chart) giant HS patternGerman 10 year bund keeps scaling. Price action is reflected on the charts. On the long term, seems like the german 10 year bund is building a huge Head and Shoulders pattern. That would be consistent with rates going down in the eurozone. But… if the German bund should spike over 2.50%, that would probably mean that euro rate cuts will be on hold for longer than expected. IMO, it’s all about geopolitics, as it’s also related to oil/natural gas supply from the east, commercial war with the USA, China and India, etc. all of them are inflationary and would also be pushing government spending to the upside on military and defense systems, detracting investment capacity from the private sectors… All to be seen in coming weeks… any insights you would like to share about the topic, please let me know!
TVC:EU10Y
by j_arrieta
safe-haven play :USD vs. NZDIn several of my previous analyses, I mentioned the state of the Forex market due to geopolitical tensions . As a result, we are witnessing an increase in safe-haven currencies like USD compared to riskier currencies such as AUD and NZD. Therefore, by following proper risk management principles, you can open short positions on this currency pair. Additionally, from a technical perspective, after breaking down the ascending channel, the price has formed the first wave of Elliott and, after its correction, has completed the second wave. In the most recent candle, it has entered the third impulsive wave. Target 1: 0.59750 Target 2: 0.58626 Stop Loss: 0.61010
Short
by Market-Analyzer
BTCUSD Shortas Israel and Iran War is on heads so due to undone Retaliatory decision of I-S-R-A-E-L BTC is stuck in a range but technically i am seeing a drop in the price of BTCUSD as BTC can fall to its daily Support level On Weekly to Daily its in Bullish but in H4 to H1 it seems to be Bearish so i am bearish on current moment if Geopolitical tension overcomes to increases we can any unexpected move on the pair but still we are Bearish over the pair to its Daily support level
Short
by Wakeel_Saab
Crude Oil Technical Analysis - October OutlookCrude oil is showing a notable recovery from its recent lows, currently trading around the $72 mark. A few key observations based on the price action and indicators: Price Pattern and Trend: The chart shows a classic descending wedge pattern, which signals a potential bullish reversal. The breakout from the wedge is accompanied by a price surge above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, suggesting a short-term trend change. Key Support Levels: Immediate Support : Around $70.64, marked by the breakout level. Strong Support : At $68.23, where significant buying interest has been observed in the past, reinforced by a bullish consolidation zone. Resistance Levels: First Resistance: $72.11, which has been tested, with potential room for the price to move higher if momentum sustains. Critical Resistance : $77.23, which coincides with a strong historical supply zone. A close above this level would signal further bullish momentum . Volume Profile Insight: A noticeable shift in the volume profile near the $70 mark suggests accumulation by institutional investors, hinting that buyers are stepping in to defend this level. RSI Indicator : The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has bounced back from oversold levels and is now showing early signs of positive divergence, supporting the case for an upward move. Geopolitical Factors: With rising tensions in the Middle East, as highlighted in the annotation, traders and investors are pricing in potential supply disruptions, contributing to the recent spike in oil prices. Conclusion: Oil prices may continue to rise in the short term, with $72.11 being a key level to watch. If sustained above this, the next target would be $77.23. However, if prices fall back below $70, we could see a retest of support at $68.23. Given the geopolitical uncertainty, traders should remain cautious of potential volatility.
TVC:USOILLong
by AngshumanSaikia
Will geopolitical tension support oil prices? Kazakhstan planned to cut its oil output, while Russia reported lower production in Sep, restricting the supply. Meanwhile, the heightened geopolitical tension in the Middle East increases concerns over oil production and transport. At the same time, market participants remain optimistic about the US economy, which could support oil demand. Today's NFP release may provide insights regarding the US job markets. USOIL has significantly recovered from its low last month. The price retested its support at 67.50 USD per barrel before closing above its psychological support at 70.00 USD per barrel. If USOIL sustains its upward momentum, the price may retest the following resistance at 75.00 USD per barrel. On the contrary, USOIL may return to 70.00 USD per barrel if the price retraces before its continuation.
FX_IDC:USDWTILong
by DynamicCapital-FX
BITCOIN ONCE MORE ON THE RISE!!Hello and welcome back friends i have some exciting cooks for the next crypto PUSH of 2025. Bitcoin is looking great despite the world events which is nothing more than a reason to set up bitcoin for its spring to the upside. After a war there's always profits once it resolves. Indicator (1). Donald T. Speculation if he wins it will push crypto, he is pushing a crypto narrative and wants to make the USA a BTC/Crypto Hub. Indicator (2). Banks are having innovation coming in 1-2 years through company SWIFT for adaptation of Digital Currency. Indicator (3). XRP just received greenlight for adaptation as one of DUBAI's currencies. Check your own facts so that you can correlate to this post as ive done my research to. Its just funny, as well as interesting to notice how the chart TELLS US where the market will go, and then the world events make it happen. Absolutely amazing to have conviction through these markets at these very moments we are in a bearish dip for BETTER BUYS. This baby will continue to pump thorugh 2025. Now..... For the Analaysis haha. As we can see from the chart BTC seems to have a strong floor here at the 60,000 Price range. i have it marked up by a green textile box that price has a great level of support and resistance if you notice to the left. Currently sitting on the 0.236 of our Fibbs from a swing low to swing high out look, and as the jingle goes from low to high we're looking for buys at key levels of the fibb. If she decides to dump a little further for reasons of war & fear, but as stated earlier thats actually a good thing for a higher push in economies. Black swan events despite being unfortunate bring prosperity in goods overtime. This level would be the 0.382 or price at 51,500 of BTC. this will be another VERY strong floor for BTC to quickly recover from notice the wick Monday 5 Aug. We're in for some Bullish runs team Lots of love keep yourselves well and DCA through this crypto market build your portfolios and HODL for 2025.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by DegenJake_
CNY/USD Trend since 06 2007. Channel. Reversal zone.Logarithm. Time frame 1 week. At the moment, the currency is stronger than the dollar. The main trend is a descending channel. The price is in it now. Secondary trend — breakout of the descending trend line. Price growth to the median of the channel, and in case of its breakthrough, to the resistance. If not, then a pullback to the lower zone of the channel. Local trend — The nearest events and news background, which can affect (not necessarily) locally (movements to the median of the channel, i.e., the middle, if it is positive) on the yuan rate. This, in less than 1 month, namely from October 22 to 24, 2024 will be held 7.16 XVI BRICS summit (short for Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) in Russia in Kazan. Line graph for visualization.
Long
by SpartaBTC
2
XAUUSD | Trade idea- **Gold Price:** Gold is holding above $2,500 ahead of the US Non-Farm Payroll data, having reached a high of $2,523 yesterday and currently trading around $2,517. - **US Economy Expectations:** - August Non-Farm Payroll is expected to increase by 164,000, up from 114,000 in the previous month. - Unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.5%, from 6.4%. - **Rate Cut Probability:** The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has decreased to 57% from 70% a week ago (CME Fed Watch Tool). - **US Dollar Index:** - Bullish outlook with minor support around 101.20/100.50. - Near-term resistance at 102/102.80. - **Gold Price Drivers:** - **Global Stock Market:** Bearish, which is positive for gold. - **US Dollar Index:** Bullish, which is negative for gold. - **US 10-Year Bond Yield:** Bearish, positive for gold. - **Technical Analysis:** - **Support:** Near-term support at $2,470; a break below targets $2,449/$2,430. - **Resistance:** Minor resistance at $2,520; a break above could lead to $2,525/$2,530.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDShort
by DynamicCapital-FX
You Are a Puppet - How The Elite is Manipulating the MarketsWelcome back Future Demons Let me make it very clear. I’m here to help you become a better trader, and make money. I’m not a fan of Wall Street, the Elite, the big asset management companies like BlackRock, Vanguard who own most of the biggest companies in the world. They are known for manipulating the markets, to bait you in, and take advantage of you. They are ruthless. They have secret collabs with journalists around the world from big mainstream media, who will trick you with clickbait articles. But there is way more.. Also there is a big misconception, that the big American asset management companies only hold Western stocks. No, my friend. They hold Russian and Chinese stocks as well. They try to disguise it of course via shadow companies and banks. The Elite in USA, Europe, Russia and China are all "working together", and all have part in the world’s biggest companies and share the same goal. More money and more power. This is NOT a war between sides - East vs West - as they will portrait it in the mainstream media. They have and will continue to brainwash you to believe in this narrative, while they are making money, and the people are dying in war. This is in reality a war between up and down. The elite vs the people. Historically it has always been like that. The church vs the illiterate people. The Kingdom vs the peasents. And there is no difference this time. —— Why am I telling you this? We haven’t seen a bear market in 15 years, which is unheard of. We have been very close many times, but suddenly came COVID, which made the markets blossom again. The small businesses went bankrupt, while the giants made money again. After some time we saw a decline again. Russia invaded Ukraine, and USA (NATO), didn’t try to stop the war. They rejected any kind of diplomatic negotiations. Why? Obviously because they knew, that especially a proxy-war is good for the markets. All the weapons US has sold to Ukraine, made the markets recover. Then again very conveniently Israel had an excuse to use their power against Palestine, which meant more war-money, and again the market managed to recover. The recent little trick is now the 600,000 polio-vaccines UN will give to the Palestinian kids, who are suffering in Gaza. There is catch though, that many is not aware of. The polio vaccine is made by a French company Sanofi. It only takes a Google search or 2 to find out, who the biggest investor is: Dodge Cox, owned by Johnson, Wells Fargo, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft and more. Last but not least, let me also state, that the AI hype lately has been the main reason the markets has increased. But with this post I just want to make it clear, that the Elite, the Deep State, whatever you want to call them, will do whatever it takes to make money. And they are ruthless. What to do now? If you are out of the markets, stay out! If you are in the markets secure profit. We have no idea how high we will go, but there is no doubt imo, that this is a huge bubble, and we will most likely soon go into a Depression like we did 100 years ago in the 1930s. War has historically always been the last instrument before a crash. Kind Regards LaPlaces Demon PS. I know that some people might disagree with my analysis, which is totally ok. What I have learnt the last 10 years trading is to follow the money. And market psychology is my biggest strength.
SP:SPXShort
by Lapl4cesDem0n
10