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WAR

GOLD TRIPLE TOP - WAR END?All eyes are on Chinese President Xi Jinping’s state visit to Russia that begins on Monday. During the three-day visit, the leaders of the two nations will discuss the deepening of economic and political cooperation as well as the war in Ukraine. If this meeting tends to reach a diplomatic solution to end Russia-Ukraine war then Gold will see a massive sell-off. Also, FED is very likely to add a 25BPS to reach 5% interest rate, kinda expected but it brings more pain to markets. I will keep updating this, follow to get alerts 🔔
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by dogofwallstreets
Long term Golds, a cup of moon tea anyone?My idea is given that the Cup and Handle pattern is a classic bullish pattern and is one repeated in golds historical price we appear to be a very bullish long term gold signal in the next coming months.. We can also take into account the convergence of the cups curve and a potential breakout area for the end of a falling wedge and rising upward trend also when we look at the date for when we expect to see the rise in price for Gold there is reported to be planned Military action from Russia against Ukraine, even if war doesn't break out there will be rises in tension especially as Bidden has publicly shown support for the Ukraine and Putin is talking about all out war without Americas capitulation on Ukrainian Sovereignty.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ChimeraBearBull
🧯 There is WAR on Bitcoin 💣🔥I will remain Long no-matter what. That's a personal opinion that won't change. In the video i talk news, inflation, job report today. Let me know yourthoughts. Links: 1. Biden war on BTC miners: cointelegraph.com 2. Powell war on Bitcoin: decrypt.co 3. SEC failure to safeguard the Crypto industry which i cover earlier this week (Silvergate and FTX): Combine the 3 and we have this: OPEN WAR! They hate it and they need the money to go elsewhere. that's their interest...not necessarily mine interest or yours. DATA/METRICS: NFP was positive today but unemployment rose so it evens it out. Dollar failed to rise and was a good day for Gold: www.fxstreet.com Nobody talks about average hourly earnings report today which for me is important: 'wages inflation was lower' if I can say it in a simple way: wages cool www.ft.com Wage price spiral avoided..Great news www.investopedia.com As data came out, the CME revised the possibility of a 0.50% rate hike to lower: www.cmegroup.com At the same time banks taking a beating: twitter.com CPI next week will be HUGE! I expect lower inflation, since energy prices did not pump and wages did not rise. Hopefully next week we have good news..pray! When Banks take a beating I like to hold Bitcoin. personal opinion and experience: Can we revisit 18k? Yes, it's possible now Can BTC go to zero? That also is a possibility Will some ALTS got o zero? For sure some will! Will some ALTS succeed? Again, for sure some will! Do I remain Bullish on BTC? That is a personal statement and mu humble opinion. After all i can wait.... it looks like the Feds and the US government can't. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR PS. Thank GOD i have a forex account...got saved by Gold this week. Still, very unhappy and FED up with people. Never fed up with Bitcoin.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by FX_Professor
5
What commodities will move in the 2nd year Russia-Ukraine War Russia-Ukraine War entered the second year. Most of the commodities skyrocketed after the invasion had returned to or below the pre-war level. Energy is the market focus but the price dropped below the pre-war level and might not have enough geopolitical moment to rebound unless the war fully escalates and spreads to other countries. The weakness of wheat price might reverse if Russia refuse to renew the export deal. Energy products are the main focus in this war since Russia is the world’s key energy exporter. NYMEX WTI crude oil price started from USD92.10 as of the close of 23 Feb 2022, and reached an intraday high of USD130.5 per barrel in March. NYMEX Natural gas is even more volatile, jumped from USD4.623 per MMBtu to reach over USD10 in August. However, despite the sanction and price cap imposed by western countries, the energy exports from Russia maintained at high level, and European winter weather is relatively mild together with the effort to secure supply from non-Russia energy sources, the supply and demand situation is much less bad than many had feared, and the energy price retreated significantly and dropped below pre-war level. As of 24 Feb 2023, NYMEX Natural gas closed at USD2.548, while NYMEX WTI crude oil closed at USD76.32. Assuming the war are restricted in Ukraine and haven’t spread to other European countries, the war will no longer have a material impact on energy price. Western countries don’t want to shut down Russia’s energy supply completely, they just don’t want Russia to make a lot of money from energy exports to finance the war. The ideal situation is Russia selling cheap oil and gas to global market. In fact, Russia is still exporting a lot of their energy products to China and India, and the reduced demand from them in the global market pressured the price. I can’t predict the outcome of a war, but a win by Ukraine might further pressure the energy price since Russia might probably need to aggressively sell their energy for war compensation and rebuilding the country. Even the war maintains the status quo for an extended period of time, it will not stimulus the energy price like last year since many countries had already reduced the reliance on Russia’s energy. What I worry more is grain price. Russia and Ukraine together are supplying one third of global wheat. Many of the Ukrainian grain planted in the Southern and Central part of the country, that had been seriously affected by war. Ukrainian grain exports dropped nearly 30% in the last marketing year. Not only the plantation area will be affected, all the input including labour, fertilizer and chemical supply are also affected, not to mention the harvest and the logistic to export the grain. Grain export deal with Russia is expiring on 19 March, whether Russia will renew it could be a catalyst for market movement, and the lower price of Ukrainian grain because of this uncertainty might also reduce farmer’s willingness to plant wheat. Russian grain production hasn’t been affected yet; in fact, the harvest of wheat is pretty good. When energy crisis didn’t realize, whether Russia will weaponize grain will need further monitor. At this moment, grain export is not targeted by western countries, so Russia might try to export as many grains as possible to improve their financial situation, but if the war situation turned sour, I can’t rule out the possibility of some form of export ban which might make the inflation situation in western countries more complicated. CBOT wheat price started from USX 884.75 as of the close of Feb 23, and reached an intraday high of USX 1363.5 per bushel in March. As of 24 Feb 2023, it closed at USX 721.75. Of course, the weakness could also be explained by bumper crop from Australia and an expected high US production in the coming year. Technically USX 712.5 is an important support, and RSI is approaching oversold level. We might consider a long position @ 715, stop loss @ 680, target @ 800. Disclaimers Above information are for illustration only and there is no guarantee on the accuracy of the information. They should not be treated as investment recommendations or advices. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by FOTrading
OIL going to make BIG move soon1/2 We sold most longs in #OIL, trailing position left Been going long $UCO & shorting puts @ lows We want back in, why? There's something brewing in middle east area More on this later Chart is too much, explain in next post $USO $CVX $XOM $MPC $SUN - 2/2 Short term #oil is on a slight uptrend (white) It also more recently trades in channel (yellow) Longer term it's HUGE Head & Shoulder (top) If there is #war is larger conflict in middle east $UCO & oil will rally hard However, if there's nothing, it'll crater, temporarily
NYMEX:CL1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Dont be fooled by the pump!!!!!Bitcoin has no value. Its value is made by human emotions. What happens when humans enter the depressive state of mind? Bitcoin will no longer be supported nor be interesting. Last time I posted on Bitcoin, I said that the narrative that would drive the price down was corona. And i quote: "With this corona bullshit..." This time the narrative will change. WAR and INFLATION will drive bitcoin down this time. WAR and INFLATION will make people enter a depressive state of mind. DXY will be pumped (WAR will cause this) = Bitcoin dumped. Short the next pump to 25k and join me on this ride to the ashes. "What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun." Ecclesiastes 1:9 Thank you!
Short
by Chew5Gum
9
The 1. Chapter of Darktrace - 2 Long scenariosTwo scenarios where i plan to go long: Fundamentals: Darktrace provides mostly solutions for cyber security and could profit from the current atmosphere (Ukraine etc.) Scenario 1 (Blue arrow) Target: Next resistance level (upper red rectangle) Requirments: - retake of first resistance level (lower red rectangle) - generating higher highs on the 1 hour chart after retake Invalidation: - Fall under first resistance level (lower red rectangle) after retake AND generating lower low swings on the 1 hour chart Scenario 2 (Orange arrow) Target: Next resistance level (line level 1) Requirments: - Retest of former s/r level (line level 2) Invalidation: Added to long term hold stocks if it should fall deeper Good luck
DLong
by a_tale_of_bulls_and_bears
Raytheon Technologies: 3 Line Strike at PCZ of Bearish CypherThe Defense Sector in general seems to be overhyped as if it expects earnings not to matter anymore but the PE/Ratios keep rising as if it's betting on the US to enter a direct armed conflict rather than reality which is that we are simply just providing old unused equipment to the Ukraine. I think in the near future the market will realize this and we will see prices on these kinds of stocks got lower as the PE Ratios compress just like every other speculative growth stock has done during the cycle.
NYSE:RTXShort
by RizeSenpai
Equity outlook Restrictive policy and geopolitical risks raise the odds of a global recession What a difference a year makes. 2022 saw the ‘reopening’ of markets from the COVID pandemic evolve into a ‘recession’. Margaret Thatcher put it succinctly on 27 February 1981 – “The lesson is clear. Inflation devalues us all.” Monetary policy has been on the most pronounced tightening campaign in decades as inflation progressed from being transitory to potentially permanent due to the energy crisis. Politics is driving economics, not the other way around In the pre-war global economy, globalisation was an important source of low inflation. A large amount of global savings had nowhere to be deployed, rendering interest rates lower on a global basis. However, post-war, global defence spending has risen to a level not seen in decades as national security consumes government’s agendas. There will be vast opportunity costs involved, tied to the increase in world military spending. We expect the rate of globalisation to take a back seat, as Europe would never want to be as dependent on Russian energy as it is today. In a similar vein, the US does not want to fall privy to the same mistake Europe made and will aim to strengthen ties with Taiwan in order to ensure the smooth flow of chips. National security is inflationary We are in the midst of a war in Europe, owing to the brutal battle being waged by Russia in Ukraine. While the war is centred in Ukraine, the reality is we are all paying the price of this war by allowing it to continue. There is another war brewing in the background that we must not fail to ignore. The United States’ deepening ties with Taiwan is aggravating China. The Taiwan issue remains sticky. Taiwan’s role in the world economy largely existed below the radar, until it came to prominence as the semiconductor supply chain was impacted by disruptions to Taiwanese chip manufacturing. Companies in Taiwan were responsible for more than 60 percent of revenue generated by the world’s semiconductor contract manufacturers in 20201. Tensions between Taiwan and China could have a big impact on global semiconductor supply chains. The United States’ dependence on Taiwanese chip firms heightens its motivation to defend Taiwan from a Chinese attack. The desire for control of technologies, commodities, and straits is paving the way for economic wars ahead. China needs to get its house in order The economic headwinds that China faces are multifaceted. Unfortunately, policy easing from China in H1 2022 has been insufficient to arrest the extent of the slowdown. Of late, China’s State Council stepped up its economic stimulus further by announcing a 19-point stimulus package worth $146 billion (under 1% of GDP) to boost economic growth2. The property markets continue to deteriorate. The problem stems from a lack of financing among many developers that is needed for construction of their residential projects. All of this came about from the central government’s decision in 2020 to introduce the ‘three red lines’ policy to rein in excessive borrowing in the real estate sector. Vulnerable property developers are struggling to secure capital to sustain their businesses. Alongside, demand for housing has deteriorated due to intermittent COVID lockdowns, weakening economy, and doubts over developers’ ability to deliver completed housing units. However, the weakness in China’s economy extends beyond the property sector with rising unemployment and energy shortages. Chinese earnings growth since Q3 2019 has lagged the rest of the world. China has also suffered significant capital outflows, owing to its adherence to COVID-zero. This has set back its rebalancing towards a consumption-driven economy, rendering China to remain more addicted to export-led growth. However, export demand has begun to weaken as the rest of the world slows. US is in the early innings of a recession The US economy appears a safe haven amidst the ongoing energy crisis as it is less exposed to the vagaries of Russian oil supply. It also recovered faster from the pandemic compared to the rest of the world. The labour market remains strong as jobs continue to be added, wages accelerate, consumption has continued to grow (albeit more slowly), and unemployment remains at a five-decade low. Despite the recent upswing in GDP growth, caused by noise in the foreign trade numbers and technicalities in inventory data, the big picture of a slowing economy in the face of aggressive monetary tightening remains intact. There are mounting signs of slowing too, especially in the housing sector owing to the rapid rise in mortgage rates. Earnings in 2022 have reflected the challenging environment being faced by US corporates with earnings growth for companies grinding down to 3.17%3.The more value-oriented sectors such as energy, industrials, and materials continue to outperform. Looking ahead, earnings revision breadth for the S&P 500 Index are in deeply negative territory suggesting downside is coming from an earnings growth standpoint. Core inflationary pressures remain concerning, especially housing rents and medical inflation – components that are typically much stickier compared to goods and transport inflation. The stickier high services inflation reflects strong labour market dynamics as services are labour intensive and housed domestically. The Federal Reserve (Fed) appears unwilling to declare victory in its war against inflation. As we look ahead, it’s clear that the Fed’s role in quelling inflation without tipping the economy into recession will take centre stage. Harsh winter ahead for Europe Europe is heading for a recession in response to a strong external shock. Gas flows from Russia to Europe have declined substantially to 10% of their levels in 2021, causing gas prices to spike. The Russian war in Ukraine is showing no signs of abating, with Russia deciding on a partial mobilisation after a rather successful Ukrainian counter-offensive. These higher energy prices are squeezing real disposable income out of consumers and raising costs higher for corporates, causing further curtailment of output. The energy driven surge in headline inflation to 10.7% year on year4 has sent consumer confidence to a record low, leaving Europe in a bind. Fiscal policy in focus The European Union (EU) aims to define the direction and speed of Europe’s energy policy restructuring through REPowerEU strategy. However, crucial energy policy decisions have been taken by EU countries at national level. In an effort to shield European consumers from rising energy costs, EU governments have ear marked €573 billion, of which €264 billion has been set aside by Germany alone. In most European countries, both energy regulation and levies are set at the national level. The chart below illustrates the funding allocated by selected EU countries to shield households and firms from rising energy prices and their consequences on the cost of living. No pivot yet from the ECB We experienced a decade of almost no inflation and quantitative easing in Europe. We have now entered a phase in which the European Central Bank (ECB) has gone ahead with its third major policy rate5 increase in a row this year, thereby making substantial progress in withdrawing monetary policy accommodation. The ECB remains eager to have policy choices dominated by risks, rather than the base case, owing to which more rate hikes are coming. If Eurozone inflation continues surprising to the upside, the ECB will have to continue raising rates and determine when to activate the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) to support the periphery. We expect the ECB to take the deposit rate to 2.5% by March, as it continues to see risks to inflation tilted to the upside both in the short and long term. A tightening cycle into a slower-growth macro landscape has never been helpful for equities. European equities are faced with an extremely challenging backdrop ranging from high energy prices, growing cost pressures, negative earnings revisions estimates, and cooling growth. Amid the sell-off in equity markets in the first half of this year, European equities currently trade at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.3x, marking the steepest discount versus its long-term average of 21x compared to other major markets. The risk of a recession to a certain degree is being priced into European equity markets. Conclusion In our view, the global economy is projected to avoid a full-blown downturn; however, we expect to see a series of individual country recessions take shape at different points in time. Evident from recent data, the downturn in the US is expected in the second half of 2023 whilst the Eurozone and United Kingdom will enter a recession by Q4 this year. Contrary to the rest of the world’s key central banks, China and Japan are expected to keep monetary policy accommodative which should help buffer some of the slowdown. Given the highly uncertain environment, investors may look to consider US and Chinese equities, whilst potentially reducing weighting towards European equities. Across factors, we continue to tilt to the value, dividend, and quality factors given the expectations for weak economic growth, higher rates, and elevated inflation.
ICEUS:MWL1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
NGAS BULLISH TREND REVERSALNGAS - As observed in previous heating seasons across EU, US, and Central Asia, there is a strong possibility of raising the demand for Natural Gas, instabilities in delivering, producing, and trading the blue fuel may soon lead to a not-so-cheerful holiday season in the EU and the UK. Panic is raising and if Russia decides to continue cashing on that fear, we might see new highs concurred on the spot market. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by legacyFXofficial
1
XAUUSD : 🔴 Retail Sales Effect 🔴There will be Retail Sales m/m & Core Retail Sales m/m announcements today , so , let's find out what will be the possible effects of it on the market ! 🔴 USD : Retail Sales m/m 🔴 USD : Core Retail Sales m/m 📝 Usual Effect : 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency ! 📒 Why Should We Care ? It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity ! 📝So , If the Actual would be less than forecast can cause another pump for Gold and the fall of DXY and if 'Actual' announces greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency and bad for gold ! so let's wait and see ! the price is in a Supply zone now and we have to see if it will be broken or what ! Follow me for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, I'm here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 11.16.2022 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ArmanShabanTrading
10
EUR/USD : Poland's War effects As you can see, Euro/Dollar is still fluctuating in the mentioned range and you can see the effects of the risk of war and the missiles fired at Poland on the chart. These days, in addition to macroeconomic factors, the market is suffering from systematic risk. War also has a huge impact and This makes us deal with our trades and analyzes with more care and management in these times! Follow me for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, I'm here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 11.16.2022 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
by ArmanShabanTrading
7
Lockheed Martin Bull PennantThis is a monthly chart of the defense company Lockheed Martin (LMT). As you can see, a bull pennant is appearing. In my experience, I have found that the most valid bull flags or pennants usually retrace back to the Golden Ratio (0.618), then bounce and continue higher (see below chart). When this occurs, the measured move up is typically one full Fibonacci spiral from this retracement level, which usually occurs over a period of time that is about the same as the period of time it took the bull flag or pennant to form (see below chart) The above chart suggests that LMT could climb into the 500s or as high as about 600 by the second quarter of next year. The best time to enter a trade would probably be after the seasonal volatility ends, and after a breakout occurs on some lower timeframe. From a regression standpoint, this bull pennant formed when price rose from the mean to the 1 standard deviation, and retraced to the 0.5 standard deviation. If it pans out, the measured move may reach one full standard deviation higher (to the 1.5 standard deviations). See below chart. To learn more about the log-linear regression channel that I used here, you can check out my prior post that described it in more detail: Obviously, anything can happen. Not trading advice. Please do your own research and trade at your own risk. If you disagree, I welcome respectful comments and charts below. Disclosure: I have no trade position in LMT and do not plan to open any trade at the current time.
NYSE:LMT
by SpyMasterTrades
13