USOIL and Oil Market is ready to Jump UP!Dear All,
As far as I see in OIL Market, price is going to get ready for Jumping UP and price higher and higher to its first TOP !!! All around issues are confirm it !!! Take care
Warningsigns
Beware of Shorting OpportunitiesAs we continue to analyze the market, it's become clear that avoiding bad trades is just as important as finding the next big one. This is particularly true when looking at the bottom 2 charts of NZDJPY's daily and weekly charts.
On the daily chart, we can see that the Bearish Deep Gartley Pattern is over-extended, meaning it took longer than expected to complete the trading setup. As a result, the market may not respect the level and could bash through the resistance level.
On the weekly chart, we also see that the Bearish Shark Pattern retest, doesn't give us an RSI divergence. Once again, the market may extend further before any significant retest.
Despite all of this, if you're still interested in shorting the market, do it with caution.
On the 4-hourly chart, waiting for the market to retest at the 90.03 level could attract price-action traders to jump in for the counter-trend move.
Personally, I prefer to head in for a buying opportunity at the key support level of 89.05. My initial stop-loss would be at 88.67 (-38 pips) or approximately -380USD/lot. The first target is seen at 90.08 (+103pips) or approximately 1,030USD/lot.
Remember, it's important to plan your own trade and never follow any trader blindly. Let's continue to monitor the market closely and make informed decisions.
"A Dangerous Tool" - Palantir Rally Ends w/ 6.66:1 Short A detailed look at the weekly price action history of PLTR indicates that the recent rally has come to end ... but I've been wrong before, so I welcome your tough questions and chart-based counterarguments. The strongest confluence supporting my conclusion is the simultaneous retest of the Euler Trend Exhaustion Limit and the 2nd Standard Deviation of the VWAP anchored at the Swing Low.
As always, I strive to render these ideas of mine so obviously that their explanation will require no words, and this forecast is no exception. My trading tactics - including the beauty of Tradingview and how it makes me look good - are based on identifying the opportunities within VOLUME, VOLATILITY and TREND EXHAUSTION.
In this case, it is the last of those, TREND EXHAUSTION, and specifically the use of Euler's number as a ratio in the Pitchfork to estimate the major inflection points in advance, that makes this chart unusual, and explains why it must be viewed in the weekly timeframe. This technique has appeared before (Bluzelle, for example) and will appear again in my ideas and videos.
Notice how price interacted with the Limit before, when it passed thru it for the first time in August of 2022 ...
The Short position is placed in the future, as I expect price to range and even retest the aforementioned AVWAP one last time before falling into the trade. If you zoom in carefully, you will notice that the Stop Loss and Profit targets are discretionary and based on dynamic levels within the AVWAP Array.
The Risk:Reward ratio is arbitrary, and 6.66 is merely a measure of my esteem for this beastly "business" and the product that it sells. As Gandalf said, "If all the Seven Stones were laid out before me now, I should shut my eyes and put my hands in my pockets."
The overlapping S-Curves indicate a price squeeze followed by a breakout, which I anticipate will be upward. If price rise to the highest potential shown, that would only improve the Short entry as opposed to negating my opinion, which is, of course, subjective.
The fact that this company and others like it (BAH, for example) are so enthusiastically traded by a sheltered public foretells of a troubled future, which I look forward to discussing in forthcoming livestreams. Again, I welcome your best questions.
Until then, be liquid !!!
. . .
movie-sounds.org
I shorted this baby without telling my VIPs!These are Class C- trades. I design a Class system to differentiate trading setups and their value.
Indeed, I do not trade Class C most of the time, but I do trade them occasionally.
Class C generally don't produce a profit factor of 2 for my final target, so why do I still do it?
Boredom? Maybe
Like to earn some money? Maybe
Seek Trill? NO WAY
Trill seeking I'll do over my PlayStation, VR headset(wishlist) or Casino.
I treat trading as a profession, not gambling!
EU Looking for Short ?
Please be aware of Friday Non-Farm Payroll release , just reminder ! New Year New Back Ground Color , Staying White , Staying Positive !
USDJPY-Weekly Market Analysis-Oct22,Wk1My analysis of this Bearish Crab Pattern still stands, but generally, I'm not optimistic when I see a series of consolidations happen before the completion of the Crab Pattern.
Patience is Virtue.
Let's see how this trading idea pans out.
Sticky Inflation will cause a Second Leg DownThis idea is to emphasize the risks sticky inflation will have on the world economy.
The idea is my own interpretation of Cem Karsan warning on Aug 18th.
In the 9 minute interview with TD, Cem warned everyone of the recent decline to the Day of. 19th.
He also used the words "Time to be cautious" nearly 10-15 times in a 9 min interview that was incredible.
----------------- Notes from Interview along with my charts to explain ----------------------------
Realized Vol over the last 30 days is structurally higher than where the vix is
We have naturally slide to lower fixed strike vol
OTM Calls are at a steep discount
That is a function of vol being compressed into a decline
As that happens, Vanna and Charm flows gain strength.
These are buybacks from vol compression
Dangerous Period, Quarterly Cycle
VERY IMPORTANT TOPIC FOR PEOPLE TO UNDERSTAND
If you look at the Feb / March 2020 Covid Decline this is a great example
OPEX in March and September are a time to be cautious.
It means that the Tail is Fatter of the distribution
OPEX FLOWS IN LOW LIQUIDITY ARE CAUSE FOR CONCERN.
The Way I measure low liquidity is with a popular GAMMA index to track liquidity, G
AMMA has been its lowest levels for longer since the pandemic Crash in Mar 2020.
The Feds sticky price inflation has actually been very strong, you haven’t heard much about that
China is coming back on and Stimulating which should ironically stem more inflation and harder for long term inflation to come down.
If you look at the 10 year, its starting to RAMP back up and DXY (the dollar index) is also ramping back up
Inflation is likely to remain, even though it is likely to decline, longer term inflation is likely to stabilize at higher levels
And make the Fed be much more aggressive going forward.
That is basically what the Fed has been telling you none stop for 2 weeks, but the market just hasn’t been listening
CEM ended the interview with these words...
The slide in the skew in the market is particularly dangerous
GBPUSD-Weekly Market Analysis-May22,Wk4Last week if you have gone through my analysis and engaged the market when it tested the buy zone(cyan box), you would have earned 159pips of profits in just the 1st target. If you have missed that setup, you can wait for the next opportunity.
The Bearish Shark Pattern on the 4-hourly chart gives trend traders an opportunity to engage the market. However, I do not like to see consolidation before the completion of any Harmonic Patterns.
I'm waiting for a shorting opportunity at 1.2582 on the Shark Pattern, more than ever a candlestick confirmation is required.
GBPAUD - Bullish SharkBullish Shark pattern on the Range Bar Chart on GBPAUD. Any takers?
I must remind you that, there is 1 critical warning sign on this setup. I will need to wait for a 3 bar reversal and retest to long it.
NZDJPY - Bullish SharkBefore you enjoy this setup, this Shark Pattern has a warning sign in it. The PRZ of this Bullish Shark Pattern is complete at 75.71~75.52. Other indicators are required for me before I engage in the trade.
DANGER WEEK AHEAD FOR THE DJI & MARKETSThe next 2 weeks in the market will likely be a roller coaster ride of volatility and emotion for inexperienced traders/investors alike.
I see red flags everywhere in the markets. Lots of bearish divergences, rounded tops, complacency, bullish sentiment. New high after new high in the traditional markets, with cryptos also on a nice rally.
I've been keeping watch on this DJI chart since July of 2020 and think now is the time to share it. As you can clearly see price action has been in a massive rising wedge. Price fell out of that wedge back on June, 11th of this year. Since then we have made new highs albeit very small and still below the wedge. Currently it seems to be in a smaller time frame ascending wedge.
I want to bring your attention to the convergence of all 3 of these trend lines. The first 2 being both rising wedge lines and the third is the top of the local ascending wedge. Interestingly enough they all meet on Friday, September 10th; the last trading day before the 20th 9/11 anniversary.
I can see a meltup on the DOW this upcoming week to 37,850 or so before a nasty rejection kiss off these three lines. Then a crisis (catalyst) happens this weekend and when trading resumes on Monday, September 13th complete carnage ensues. I'll leave it up to you to figure out what that might be, but the significance of the date along with what is going on in Afghanistan should give some clues.
Fundamentals are liquidity via unemployment stimulus drying up, housing eviction moratorium coming to a halt, labor and supply shortages. Just this week Toyota announced they were slashing global production by a whopping 40%!
I want to close this post by saying that I hope nothing bad happens to our country and the world this month. The last 18 months have been stressful enough. Unfortunately the charts are screaming otherwise.
I'll follow up with a closeup of this chart and also some supporting documentation.
GBPJPY - Bullish BatLike GBPUSD, GBPJPY also has a Bullish Bat setup that B point hasn't touch Fibonacci Retracement 50%. Although it is a similar setup, there are 2 things that GBPJPY came to a bit short compare to its big brother GBPUSD.
1. The Friday candle close haven't touched Point D.
2. Point C touches Point A candle body.
Where we can wait for #1 to fulfil but #2 is a warning sign and the minimum candle formation you need to see is a Bullish Engulfing candle at Point D.
SPX's Early warning signals . 1es + 2ed, moves upward !!!We are so bullish till we hit and break the second one.
Bitcoin Fractal of 2019 and filling the CME gap?This analysis I think speaks for itself and it is just a warning to those who see it, to temper their enthusiasm and be careful.
Like in 2019, we have a CME gap at the bottom of this bull run, around 23k to 26k. There is a credible chance that these strong parallels in circumstances and fractals as circled are more than just symmetry. This local top is shaping out just like the top of the 2019 run. It would've recovered, but for the COVID crash worldwide. BTC was pulling away. So this isn't a doom and gloom, but 23k - 26k is the biggest CME gap we have from 24 Dec & 28 Dec 2020, and all gaps in the past have been filled.
#ES #SP500 - New Highs and Lower VolumeGood Morning Traders at least in Europe!
Honestly speaking, I can't quite understand the indices anymore but what matters my opinion?
The S&P500 is rising and rising. Even if the market faces a resistance then there's no resistance in the market.
During RTH the market went quietly up and resides around 3430 almost all day long. Immediately during ETH after markets close the S&P just overruns the resistance.
Sure, the defenders are at home by now. Is this for real?
My only explanation is the upcoming presidential election. The markets can't go down before... but no matter what:
Right now the market is breaking all resistances but the volume is decreasing during the last days.
This is a sign of weaker highs.
I believe that a correction will come. I am not talking about a crash that's "impossible" before elections... but a couple of days before the elections I'll buy put options!
Right now I believe the S&P will have a pullback of around 5-10% maybe today or at the beginning of next week.
Take care for today,
Robert
Trade Ideas Position: GBPJPY BatA Bearish Bat pattern has formed up earlier and we had engaged the trade. This post was delayed due to the 10limit post per day restriction that was set by tradingview. I had written them a feedback hope this can be fixed.
So back to our analysis, this was a perfect setup as the bearish bat pattern was formed on the sell zone area on this trend trading setup, there is an RSI divergence on this too.
The only thing that isn't that great is candlewick of Point C(circled red) touches Point A, but that concern has been answered with the 3bar reversal candle that breaks below and closes below the terminal bar which has been marked T-Bar.
If this sound alien to you, drop me a message rather than rushing into the trade.
Trade Ideas Position: GBPAUD BatGBPAUD has a reputation for significant movement as a currency pair, and it is not the most suitable for Harmonic Patterns.
This trade has two major disadvantage to the setup:
1. Pattern completion is overextended
2. There is a strong bullish candle on D, and the market immediately went into consolidation.
Why do I still engage the trade?
1. RSI Divergence
2. AUD has been very bearish for quite some time, a correction(bullish) may cause a pullback and all I need to see is a break and close below 1.9639 that allow me to shift stops to entry.
Conservative traders can wait for the break and close below to happen before engaging the trade.
Make your own trading decision and don't follow blindly.
Trade Ideas Educator: GBPAUD BatA bullish bat set up for a trend trading opportunity has 2 warning signs:
1) A potential head and shoulders setup on the daily chart.
2) A consolidation at Point C may signal a small sell zone to some trader and gain momentum for the bearish run.
I will wait for candle confirmation before engaging in this trade. You can choose if to join us on our TIP community where you receive all my trade, Stop, Entry, Target or to join us on Facebook Live on the coming Wednesday to see the development of the trade.
Link is at the bottom.
BTC Update! $6k finally breaks down and we were ready!Hello crypto traders!
Sorry I was just too busy yesterday to get a chart up with all that chaos going on. But lets step back, take a deep breath and look at what we have been discussing for days now.
A week ago I had discussed the trend changing and had finally gotten stopped out of my last trade position and locked in profits around $6440. I was then happily sitting in cash and waiting for the bulls to show something.
A couple of days ago I posted the more detailed version of all the red flags and signs of the trend change coming for the bears to be in full control. We cannot ignore clear bearish signs and if trading this market you have to protect your capital.
From where I got stopped out, BTC then showed a 20% drop, majority of which came yesterday. I continue to remain cash and have zero interest in trying to catch a falling knife as in my opinion, you will get cut far too many times trying to catch a falling bottom.
Yesterday we fell to $5280 extremely quickly. I recognize this had a lot to do with BCash fork and some big shots talking all sorts of junk with each other. Honestly, I keep an ear open to it but overall its pretty irrelevant to me. As a trader, I always have stop losses in position so even if I had still been in a position, I know my risk would have been minimal.
So from $5280, we saw the bounce up towards $5645 which gave us a easy lower high and fully expected. Today we saw another drop for another lower low and fell to $5188. Bulls are currently in a bounce off of that and anything under $5645 would just be another lower high. Bulls currently sitting around $5600 as I type this which is great for this bounce. IF the bulls beat $5645 then it would give them a 4 hour higher high. From there I'd want to see a higher low form (higher than $5188) and then another higher high to confirm the bulls are actually making the move to change the trend.
I am in no rush to re-enter this market as the volatility has been significant the last 2 days and we see pretty big pushes. You can absolutely make good size scalp trades here but pretty risky for my personal trading style. I'd rather be patient and have the bulls confirm a trend change for the time being and get their higher lows and higher highs going.
Due to the massive drop across crypto the last two days, it does have me interested in other coins just for more significant bounces in terms of a % gain. But BTC remains king and I will continue to primarily follow it on the charts as it dictates pretty much everything within the space for being bullish or bearish. I know some follow alt coins and their fundamentals but for me personally, the fundamentals in alt coins are useless. Most of these projects supposedly have great fundamentals and are progressing "ahead of schedule", etc etc yet alts are still down 70-95% on these great fundamentals. I will not care for alt fundamentals until they can become more like traditional markets and offer up balance sheets, profit/loss, revenue streams, etc. to give us information to pull from rather than just a few "developers" talking on some social media platform. Sorry for the long post/rant but please keep your capital safe. Always have stop losses in place as I know so many were crushed with yesterdays dump if they have no protection in place.
