Warrenbuffet
Will Berkshire Hathaway investors panic when Warren Buffet...Will Berkshire Hathaway investors panic when Warren Buffet passes away?
Few companies are as closely tied to their leaders as Berkshire is to Warren Buffett and was to Charlie Munger.
Munger's recent passing, who served as Berkshire's vice chairman since 1978, signifies the end of an era for the company. While Munger's role was significant, Buffett's influence on the company is even more substantial. Given his age of 93, Buffett's eventual passing could potentially have a large impact on Berkshire's stock price. Investors may be spooked or optimistic about Berkshires possible future. The cult of personality and reverence for billionaires among the investing class suggests that the impact would be negative. But who knows?
In a recent letter, Buffett asserted that Berkshire is "built to last" and will continue to thrive under capable leadership, likely from Greg Abel. Currently the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Energy and vice-chairman of non-insurance operations, Abel is seen as a potential successor. As pondered by Reuters; will he be willing to divest underperforming or uninspiring businesses, unlike his predecessors who preferred long-term holdings, or whether Berkshire might consider paying its first dividend since 1967?
Learning from Warren Buffett's 7 Major Investment ErrorsWarren Buffett's name resonates with success, particularly through investments in renowned companies such as Coca-Cola, American Express, Apple, Bank of America, Moody’s, Kraft Heinz, and more. He stands as a global icon, amassing a wealth exceeding USD 100 billion. Beyond his investment prowess, Buffett generously imparts his wisdom to millions worldwide. Among his many famous quotes, one emphasizes the importance of learning from others' mistakes.
Warren Buffett's 7 Major Investment Errors
I) Dexter Shoe Company
- In 1993, Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway acquired Dexter Shoe Company, a decision he later regretted as his worst deal. Buffet made multiple significant mistakes in this acquisition.
- The first error was misjudging Dexter's potential. Berkshire bought Dexter due to its high return on capital employed but failed to consider the competitive threat posed by cheap shoes from countries like China. Buffet acknowledged this oversight in 1999, highlighting the increasing challenge for domestic producers in the face of a market flooded with 93% of 1.3 billion pairs of shoes purchased in the United States coming from abroad.
- The primary lesson here is the necessity of assessing a company's durable competitive advantage before investing. Durable competitiveness has transitioned from a good-to-have factor to a must-have for any business.
- Buffet's second mistake was financing the Dexter Shoe Company purchase with Berkshire Hathaway stock valued at 433 million dollars, rather than using cash. A single share of Berkshire's Class A stock was approximately USD 15,000 in 1993. Today, it is valued at USD 517,000.
- This decision didn't just cost Berkshire shareholders USD 433 million for a company that eventually became worthless; it resulted in a staggering loss of 15 billion dollars for Berkshire's shareholders.
- The crucial lesson derived from this experience is never to sacrifice successful investments to make risky bets.
II) Tesco
- Tesco, a British grocery chain, became a concern for Berkshire Hathaway when the company's ownership stake exceeded 5% by 2012. By 2013, signs of trouble at Tesco became evident, leading Berkshire to reduce its stake to 3.7%, amounting to an investment of nearly 1.7 billion dollars.
- In the subsequent months, Tesco's stock plummeted by nearly 50% due to declining sales, heightened competition from discount retailers, and an accounting scandal that attracted scrutiny from the UK's financial regulators.
- Buffett's mistake lay in hesitating to sell Tesco stocks despite recognizing these troubling signs. This delay resulted in a loss of approximately USD 444 million for Berkshire.
- The crucial lesson from this situation is the importance of conviction when making selling decisions. Just as one should invest with conviction, it is equally vital not to hold onto a stock if confidence in its performance wavers .
III) Energy Future Holdings
- Warren Buffett, known for seeking advice from Charlie Munger in his investment decisions, openly admitted a significant mistake in his 2013 letter. He invested USD 2.1 billion in bonds of Energy Future Holdings Corporation, banking on rising natural gas prices to boost the competitiveness of the coal-based business and yield profits.
- Unfortunately, natural gas prices plummeted from their 2007 levels, leading to substantial losses for Energy Future Holdings. The company declared bankruptcy in 2014, and Berkshire Hathaway sold the bonds at a loss of USD 873 million in 2013.
- Buffett acknowledged his error in assessing the transaction's gain-loss probabilities, emphasizing the importance of seeking a second opinion from trusted advisors or partners when making significant decisions.
- This incident highlights two essential lessons. Firstly, it underscores the risks associated with predicting market trends, whether in natural gas, oil, gold, or individual stocks. Secondly, it emphasizes the perilous nature of investing in high-yield "junk" bonds. While conglomerates like Berkshire Hathaway can absorb losses from such high-risk endeavors, retail investors face financial disaster in the event of a default. Hence, it is crucial to avoid instruments with questionable return on capital, especially in a retail investor's context.
IV) Lubrizol & David Sokol
In 2011, Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway faced severe scrutiny.
- David Sokol, chairman of several Berkshire subsidiaries, recommended Lubrizol Corporation as a potential acquisition to Buffett while he himself owned stocks in the company. Sokol's failure to disclose his stock ownership violated Berkshire's insider trading rules. Despite this, Berkshire acquired Lubrizol for approximately USD 9 billion, and Sokol profited around USD 3 million from the transaction.
- Upon investigation, it became clear that Sokol had been ambiguous about how he acquired Lubrizol stock, neglecting to mention that he purchased shares after meeting with the bankers proposing the acquisition. Buffett emphasized the issue as a matter of ethics, although he initially acknowledged that no one was at fault.
- This situation highlighted the importance of not being excessively trusting in the business world. The lesson here is to maintain a checklist, follow a rigorous process, and be unafraid to ask numerous questions, especially when your reputation is at stake. Taking extra precautions becomes essential in preserving one's integrity and credibility.
V) Amazon
- Up until now, the mistakes we've discussed were all instances of active decisions leading to losses. However, there's a different kind of mistake made by Buffett that falls more under the category of missed opportunities.
- In 2017, Buffett openly admitted that he had been observing Amazon.com for an extended period but never invested in it. In his own words, he confessed, “I was too dumb to realize. I did not think Jeff Bezos could succeed on the scale he has.”
- Buffett had underestimated Amazon's brilliance in two key areas: its dominance in e-commerce and its success in cloud services through Amazon Web Services.
- Buffett's traditional approach didn't align with investing in stocks with high price-earning ratios like Amazon's in 2019. Moreover, he tended to overlook technology companies, considering them beyond his expertise.
- In this context, the significant cost of this missed opportunity becomes apparent. It underscores the necessity of having a well-defined area of expertise. However, it's even more crucial to continuously expand and evolve that expertise over time to seize valuable opportunities.
VI) Google
- The Berkshire Hathaway portfolio notably lacks any shares from Alphabet or Google, a fact that Warren Buffett deeply laments.
- Google initially piqued Buffett's interest due to a Berkshire-owned subsidiary, GEICO, operating in the auto insurance sector. GEICO heavily depends on Google's advertising platform to attract customers.
- Buffett acknowledges that he should have delved deeper into Google's business and long-term prospects. His limited technical understanding might have played a role in missing this opportunity, despite it being right within his immediate purview.
VII) Berkshire Hathaway
- It might surprise you, but Warren Buffett's most significant investment blunder occurred when he bought Berkshire Hathaway in 1962. Back then, Berkshire Hathaway was a struggling textile business, meeting the criteria of Benjamin Graham's cigar-butt investing model.
- Buffett became intrigued by the favorable financial assessment and started purchasing the stock in installments. In 1964, the company's owner, Seabury Stanton, proposed buying Buffett's shares at $11.50 per share. However, the actual offer received was $11.32, which angered Buffett. In retaliation, he acquired a controlling stake in Berkshire Hathaway and ousted Stanton from the company.
- Despite taking revenge, Buffett found himself stuck with a significant investment in a failing business. To this day, he considers it his most regrettable investment. He endured the burden of this failing textile business for an additional 20 years. Buffett admits that had he redirected the cashflows into other ventures like insurance companies, Berkshire would have been worth twice as much as it is now.
- By his estimations, Buffett's decision to invest in Berkshire Hathaway amounted to a $200 billion mistake. The lesson here is clear: emotional decisions have no place in successful investing.
Thank you
@Money_Dictators
Berkshire (BRK.B) -> Trend ContinuationMy name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only trade stocks , crypto , options and indices 🖥️
I only focus on the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitalize on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise.
This is how you build real long term wealth!
In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on Berkshire Hathaway.
At the moment you can see that Berkshire stock is retesing its previous all time high which is roughly at the $350 area and we might see another short term bearish rejection.
However considering that the overall trend is still very bullish I am waiting for a simple break and retest of the current resistance level and then I am looking for a trend continuation.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I know that this is a quite simple trading approach but over the past 4 years I've realized that simplicity and consistency are much more important than any trading strategy.
Keep the long term vision🫡
Warren Buffett's Margin of SafetyIn the world of investing, few names carry as much weight as Warren Buffett. Often hailed as the Oracle of Omaha, Buffett's wisdom has guided countless investors to financial success. At the core of his investment philosophy lies a concept he considers paramount: the Margin of Safety.
Buffett once famously said that the three most important words in investing are "Margin of Safety." To delve deeper into this principle, he pointed to Chapter 20 of "The Intelligent Investor," a seminal work by Benjamin Graham, which he deemed the best chapter ever written on the subject.
Chapter 20: The Concept of a Margin of Safety
At its essence, the Margin of Safety revolves around the idea that every stock has a fair (intrinsic) value based on the underlying company. However, this fair value often deviates significantly from the stock's current market price.
No Margin of Safety: When the stock price exceeds its fair value, there is no margin of safety.
Margin of Safety: When the stock price falls below its fair value, a margin of safety exists.
Benefits of the Margin of Safety
Investing in any asset for less than its intrinsic value is a sound financial decision. However, in the world of investing, where determining precise fair values can be elusive, this principle holds even greater significance.
One can never pinpoint an exact fair value; they can only estimate a range. The Margin of Safety serves as a shield against potential errors in estimating fair value.
The Mathematical Advantage
A Margin of Safety provides two critical mathematical advantages:
Downside Protection: Avoiding losses is paramount in investing. It takes a 100% gain to recover from a 50% loss. Therefore, preventing losses should be a top priority.
Exponential Returns: Imagine a stock with a fair value of $10 but currently trading at $8, offering a 25% upside. Now, if that same stock were available for $5, the upside potential would skyrocket to 100%. A Margin of Safety can turn a good investment into an exceptional one.
Why Do Margins of Safety Exist?
The concept of Mr. Market, introduced by Benjamin Graham, plays a pivotal role in understanding the existence of Margins of Safety. Mr. Market is depicted as an impulsive individual, prone to bouts of depression (selling stocks at a discount) and exuberance (selling at a premium).
Stock markets exhibit such fluctuations due to the psychological biases and errors of market participants. Understanding this human element is crucial in grasping the significance of Margins of Safety.
In the words of Warren Buffett himself, "If you understand chapters 8 and 20 of 'The Intelligent Investor' and chapter 12 of 'The General Theory,' you don't need to read anything else." These chapters provide a foundation for investors to navigate the complexities of the market with the wisdom of a Margin of Safety.
In conclusion, the Margin of Safety isn't just a concept; it's a guiding principle that can safeguard your investments and unlock their full potential. Buffett's reverence for this idea underscores its importance in achieving success in the world of finance.
Berkshire Hathaway: Bearish Gartley Hinting at a 40-60% DeclineBerkshire Hathaway is currently trading at the HOP level of a Bearish Gartley and at this HOP level, upon close, will likely confirm a Bearish PPO Confirmation Arrow as the PPO Oscillator itself gets closer and closer to breaking below a well established trend line.
Along with that, we have some Bearish Divergence on the MACD and the price action we got at the HOP resulted in a green Shooting Star Candlestick Reversal Pattern that we are working on confirming via a Weekly Bearish Engulfing.
If all goes as expected, I would think that the shares of Berkshire Hathaway will first pull back 27% which would put at the 2022 lows but after that I think it will likely pullback around 40%-60% to fill an unresolved gap at $314,850.00
Will $KO bounce again?NYSE:KO again visited the trend line. Will it bounce again? Volume shows the sell momentum is slowing. Don't forget this is one of Buffet's favorite stocks.
Disclaimer – WhaleGambit. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Warren Buffet buying homebuilders after huge runsNot sure what NYSE:BRK.A NYSE:BRK.B is thinking, Warren Buffet.
Is he expecting a huge demand for NEW HOMES?
There was increase in demand after large drop.
Maybe thinking that the Fed reduces #interestrates after things begin to crack, more?
TVC:TNX has been pumping (10 Yr), no signs of weakness.
They've all had huge runs NYSE:DHI NYSE:NVR NYSE:LEN.B
🤷♂️
#RealEstate
Berkshire Hathaway On The Brink Of Another BreakoutBerkshire Hathaway's stock recently displayed encouraging growth, with a notable bullish surge on August 7th. After reaching its zenith in March 2022, the stock suffered a 28% drop. By October 2022, the stock steadied at $260 and recently made a bullish stride, briefly outdoing its past record. However, this new high was marginal and fleeting, as the stock soon reverted below its former peak.
A build-up of momentum led to this breakout, with the stock's inflection point being the $321 resistance, which then became support.
This pivotal level has consistently posed challenges for the stock, given its proximity to its all-time high. It took 18 months for the stock to muster the courage to challenge this robust resistance.
The stock's recent surge might be attributed to its favorable Q2 earnings report, where it reported earnings of 4.62 against the predicted 3.87. Notably, the daily 20 simple moving average stands slightly under the stock's current $350 price, potentially acting as a vital support.
If the stock maintains this position, it may pave the way for future growth, potentially setting new record highs and establishing a lasting bullish trend.
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BAC Bank of America Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought BAC here:
Then analyzing the options chain of BAC Bank of America Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 30usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-9-15,
for a premium of approximately $0.83.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Is It Time to Follow the Oracle's Lead?You may have heard of a certain Warren Buffett, and it seems like he might be onto something...
Buffett, known as the "Oracle of Omaha," has demonstrated remarkable investment timing, or perhaps an innate ability to steer investment flows. This was clearly illustrated by his investment in Japan, which triggered a rally in the Nikkei to decade-long highs. While that window may have closed, Buffett has been discreetly bolstering his stake in another entity - Occidental Petroleum (OXY).
If we scrutinize the timing of his purchases, it's apparent that Buffett likely had a price floor in mind. Intriguingly, his first purchase occurred when Crude was trading at a 15-year high!
This leads us to examine Oil, which has been trading nearly 40% lower since mid-2022.
Since our last discussion about oil, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has been further depleted, reaching its lowest level since 1983. The result of this drawdown is a diminished impact on energy costs as evidenced by the energy inflation index, which has not only passed its peak but has now turned negative.
Interestingly, the Canadian dollar and the Norwegian Krone, currencies of major oil-exporting countries, have been outpacing the commodity typically correlated with them, Crude Oil.
On the whole, it seems the energy commodity sector may have bottomed out, with all types of Oil and natural gas trading on an upward trajectory.
In consideration of these factors, the outlook for oil leans towards the bullish side. The scarcity of oil in the SPR and the absence of energy inflation as a significant contributor to overall CPI make it unlikely for the U.S. to release more oil to depress energy prices. Coupled with the buoyant trend in the energy commodity space and the recent outperformance of major oil-exporting countries' currencies, it appears to be an opportune moment to consider a long position on oil. At the current price level of 72.33, risk managed trade points to setting the stops at the previous support of 66 and take profit level at 85. Each Crude Oil Future contract is equal to 1000 barrels of crude oil. Each 0.01 point increment in Crude Oil Futures is equal to 10 USD . The same view can also be expressed with greater precision using the Micro WTI Crude Oil, where each Micro contract is equal to 100 barrels of crude oil and each 0.01 point increment is equal to 1 USD.
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
Reference:
www.cmegroup.com
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www.eia.gov
tradingeconomics.com
Berkshire Hathaway Q1 Earnings Rise on Insurance ReboundWarren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway reported strong earnings growth in the first quarter of the year, primarily driven by the recovery of the conglomerate's insurance business. Operating earnings, which include profits from Berkshire's wholly-owned businesses, increased by 12.6% year-over-year to $8.065 billion. Insurance underwriting profit surged to $911 million, a sharp increase from $167 million a year ago, while insurance investment income also rose by 68% to $1.969 billion from $1.170 billion. The turnaround in Geico, which saw an underwriting profit of $703 million, was a significant contributor to the overall insurance business success.
On the other hand, the company's railroad business BNSF and energy company posted year-over-year earnings declines. However, other controlled businesses and non-controlled businesses saw slight increases from the same period last year. Berkshire's cash reserves also increased to $130.616 billion from $128 billion in Q4 2022. Additionally, the company repurchased $4.4 billion worth of its own stock, the most since Q1 2021, up from $2.8 billion at the end of last year.
Berkshire's net earnings, which include short-term investment gains, rose to $35.5 billion in Q1 2023, up from $5.6 billion in the same period last year, reflecting a first-quarter comeback in Warren Buffett's equity investments such as Apple. Nonetheless, Buffett cautioned investors not to pay too much attention to quarterly fluctuations in unrealized gains on investments. These results were released ahead of Berkshire's highly anticipated annual shareholders meeting, known as "Woodstock for Capitalists."
Despite lagging behind the S&P 500's 7.7% advance with a 4.9% increase in its Class A shares this year, Berkshire's stock is still less than 3% below its all-time high.
KO- one of Warren Buffet's favorites Buy SetupKO on the 4 H chart is ready for a long trade. Stop Loss is just below the green demand zone of
the Luxalgo indicator while the target is just below the red supply zone of the indicator.
I will take a long trade of call options with a strike of $ 60.00 expiring in September but a
stock trade has 6-7% upside with a stop loss of 0.5% making it an excellent potential reward
for the risk taken.
The importance of focusing on a company's competitive advantageWarren Buffett : "The key to investing is not assessing how much an industry is going to affect society, or how much it will grow, but rather determining the competitive advantage of any given company and, above all, the durability of that advantage."
This quote from Warren Buffett, emphasizes the importance of focusing on a company's competitive advantage when making investment decisions. According to Buffett, the key to successful investing is not simply identifying industries or companies that are poised for growth or societal impact, but rather understanding the unique advantages that a particular company possesses and how sustainable those advantages are over the long term.
XOM, Possible Long Term Play with around 200 targetExxon Mobil Corporation stock MAY see around 200 USD price in up coming years !
Today, we are going to investigate one of the giant oil companies. XOM has completed a complete ascending wave cycle from 1970 to 2020 . Impulsive section of this wave cycle was between 1970 and 2014 and corrective section started at 104.76 (former ATH) on 2014 and lasted for 6 years . On Mar 2020 stock bottomed with double bottom pattern at 30.11 USD around 0.786 Retracement level of the whole large time frame bull run. This complete wave cycle can be labeled as primary degree wave 1 and 2 of the larger degree wave cycle ( cycle degree).
After end of primary degree wave 2 , a considerable up side move started which strongly broke multi years down trend line and reclaimed the ATH ( actually made a new one ). This strong and steep up going wave can be considered as primary degree wave 3 which can push the stock up to around 200 USD. This primary degree wave 3 can itself be divided to 5 intermediate wave degree and I suppose currently we are in wave 4 (minor degree ) of wave 1 (intermediate degree) of 3 ( Primary degree ).
What all above explanation means? It means most probably we have an up side move from around 78 to around 116 USD . Then , a considerable correction of intermediate degree wave 2 of primary degree wave 3 may start which can hammer down stock to around 63 USD . After that , most powerful and steep wave will start which can break the upper bond dynamic resistance ( as this the typical character of wave 3 of 3) and lead the stock to above 150 USD. All other predicted wave moves are shown on the chart.
Therefore, I certainly keep XOM in my watch list to open a profitable long position in appropriate time ( most probably in up coming weeks).
Please note our chart is in monthly time frame and there may be many fluctuations in up coming weeks and days. In addition, timing on the chart may become incorrect as timing is the most difficult task in charting. Also I kindly ask you to keep in mind this is before the fact long term prediction and normally it may need some updates in future.
I hope this analysis to be useful and wish you all the best.
What should I look at in the Income Statement?The famous value investor, Mohnish Pabrai , said in one of his lectures that when he visited Warren Buffett, he noticed a huge handbook with the financial statements of thousands of public companies. It's a very dull reading, isn't it? Indeed, if you focus on every statement item - you'll waste a lot of time and sooner or later fall asleep. However, if you look at the large volumes of information from the perspective of an intelligent investor, you can find great interest in the process. It is wise to identify for yourself the most important statement items and monitor them in retrospect (from quarter to quarter).
In previous posts, we've broken down the major items on the Income statement and the EPS metric:
Part 1: The Income statement: the place where profit lives
Part 2: My precious-s-s-s EPS
Let's now highlight the items that interest me first. These are:
- Total revenue
The growth of revenue shows that the company is doing a good job of marketing the product, it is in high demand, and the business is increasing its scale.
- Gross profit
This profit is identical to the concept of margin. Therefore, an increase in gross profit indicates an increase in the margin of the business, i.e. its profitability.
- Operating expenses
This item is a good demonstration of how the management team is dealing with cost reductions. If operating expenses are relatively low and decreasing while revenue is increasing, that's terrific work by management, and you can give it top marks.
- Interest expense
Interest on debts should not consume a company's profits, otherwise, it will not work for the shareholders, but for the banks. Therefore, this item should also be closely monitored.
- Net income
It's simple here. If a company does not make a profit for its shareholders, they will dump its shares*.
*Now, of course, you can dispute with me and give the example of, let's say, Tesla shares. There was a time when they were rising, even when the company was making losses. Indeed, Elon Musk's charisma and grand plans did the trick - investors bought the company's stock at any price. You could say that our partner Mr. Market was truly crazy at the time. I'm sure you can find quite a few such examples. All such cases exist because investors believe in future profits and don't see current ones. However, it is important to remember that sooner or later Mr. Market sobers up, the hype around the company goes away, and its losses stay with you.
- EPS Diluted
You could say it's the money the company earns per common share.
So, I'm finishing up a series of posts related to the Income statement. This statement shows how much the company earns and how much it spends over a period (quarter or year). We've also identified the items that you should definitely watch out for in this report.
That's all for today. In the next post, we will break down the last of the three financial statements of a public company - the Cash Flow Statement.
Goodbye and see you later!
Could Buffet Get Mollywopped? TSM to drop? Keep an eye on semi-conductors in general and another eye on ES, SPY, etc. We have the 200ma and weekly vwap on daily time frame coming together. We also have momentum to the downside, sellers seem to have control. Not financial advice, DYOR.
#berkshirehathaway #warrenbuffet
KHC: WARREN BUFFET'S HOLDING BREAKOUTKHC (Kraft Heinz):
I like the risk vs reward on the daily chart as it broke the neckline of an inverted head and shoulders and has just come to retest the breakout spot.
Good enough for a long swing trade for me. Target of the inverted head and shoulders is in the 45 zone.
If you look at the weekly chart, you'll see a nice rectangle range between 32.65 and 44.65.
We're now in the middle of that range so if the inverted head and shoulders plays out we could reach the top of the rectangle.
Stop at 38.2.
Trade safe!
Taiwan Semiconductor - A Precarious Situation, Warren Bought...Apple apparently uses TSM chips with plans in the future to use more. My old friend Warren bought some recently, I noticed a gap in the chart after he bought. He bought quite a lot... I am wondering if we will fill the gap then go up. Or is it possible that we could go lower after testing the gap? Could Warren B wrong? This is one tough chart to predict! Just pointing out important levels where we can pivot. NFA, DYOR.
Info to consider:
Apple is a priority customer for TSMC's advanced manufacturing process. According to equipment manufacturers and Apple's production chain, Apple will use TSMC's 3nm wafers for the first time in the second half of the year.
seekingalpha.com
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY repeating the post COVID recovery!Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A) made a new ~5 month High yesterday, spearheading the bullish reversal of high cap stocks at the moment. The price is above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and well above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), the latter two are about to make a Bullish Cross.
This draws comparisons with the previous 'Strong correction' Phase, during the COVID outbreak in February - March 2020. As you see the stock dropped a little over -30%, with the 1D MA50/100 Bearish Cross signaling the last flush, the 1D Death Cross signaling the Bottom and the 1D MA50/100 Bullish Cross the confirmation of the new rally.
This time during the 2022 correction phase, the stock dropped a little less than -30%, again the 1D MA50/100 Bearish Cross signaled the last flush, the 1D Death Cross signaled the Bottom and the 1D MA50/100 Bullish Cross is very close to take place. Will it confirm a new rally. That remains to be seen. What's certain is the fact that this time, Berkshire is already above the 1D MA200, without having the 1D MA50/100 Bullish Cross, but it is just below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which was also a Resistance before the Cross.
We've plotted the 2020 correction and recovery phase on the 2022 price action (black line) and as you see, even though lengthened, it matches the trend almost perfectly. This points to a longer term recovery this time (reasonable in the absence of the 2020 trillions USD in rescue packages) but it does show an ATH test by Q3 2023.
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My crazy partner is Mr. Market!We are used to the fact that the world's most prominent investors are known for their outstanding deals, returns and stability of results over a long time horizon. Yes, all this is certainly a sign of excellence, but no investor has gained his popularity through books. The books he wrote.
This man created his writings back in the 1930s and 1940s, but they still inspire anyone who has taken the path of smart stock investing. You've probably guessed by now who we're talking about. It's the humble author of The Intelligent Investor and Warren Buffett's teacher, Benjamin Graham.
It's amazing that after many years, this book is still considered the bible of investing on the basis of fundamental analysis - Graham wrote such a thorough description of how a person investing in stocks should think. His insight into the market can be useful to anyone who is exposed to this chaotic environment.
To understand Graham's philosophy, imagine that the market is your business partner "Mr. Market." Every day he stops by your office to visit and offer you a deal on your mutual company stock. Sometimes he wants to buy your stock, sometimes he wants to sell his own. And each time he offers a price at random, relying only on his gut. When he panics and is afraid of everything, he wants to get rid of his shares. When he feels euphoric and blind faith in the future, he wants to buy your share. That's the kind of crazy partner you have. Why is he acting this way? According to Graham, this is the behavior of all investors who don't understand the real value of what they own. They jump from side to side and do it with the regularity of a "maniac" every day.
The task of the prudent investor is to understand the fundamental value of your business and just wait for another visit from the crazy Mr. Market. If he panics and offers to buy his stock at an extremely low price - take it and wish him luck. If he begs to sell him the stock and calls an unusually generous price - sell it and wish him luck.
Of course, after a while, it may turn out that Mr. Market was not bad at all and made a very profitable deal with you. But the fact is that on the long horizon of time his luck will be washed away by a series of stupid things he will inevitably do. As for you, rest assured that tomorrow you will meet another Mister. So, as Graham has taught us, is teaching us, and will continue to teach us - you just have to be ready for it. Understanding the fundamental value of the company, this meeting will bring you nothing but pleasure!
📈 Warren Buffett famous quotes 📈Warren Buffett famous quotes:
“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
“Do not take yearly results too seriously. Instead, focus on four or five-year averages.”
“I always knew I was going to be rich. I don’t think I ever doubted it for a minute.”
“It is not necessary to do extraordinary things to get extraordinary results.”
“One can best prepare themselves for the economic future by investing in your own education. If you study hard and learn at a young age, you will be in the best circumstances to secure your future.”
“You know… you keep doing the same things and you keep getting the same result over and over again.”
“I insist on a lot of time being spent, almost every day, to just sit and think. That is very uncommon in American business. I read and think. So I do more reading and thinking, and make less impulse decisions than most people in business.”
“Someone’s sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago.”
“Chains of habit are too light to be felt until they are too heavy to be broken.”
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