Get started

Warrenbuffet

Can one go wrong by buying Berkshire dips?BRK.B - Intraday - We look to Buy at 272.02 (stop at 264.98) Support is located at 272.00 and should stem dips to this area. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. Weekly pivot is at 270.73. Daily pivot is at 271.36. We look for a temporary move lower. Our profit targets will be 291.98 and 296.98 Resistance: 283.00 / 290.00 / 295.00 Support: 275.00 / 270.00 / 263.70 Weekly chart for context Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features. Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
NYSE:BRK.BLong
by Saxo
1
Against Our Primitive Nature In Trading 🐵 “I think investment psychology is by far the most important element, followed by risk control, with the least important consideration being the question of where you buy and sell.” ~Tom Basso, Market Wizard A strong psychological foundation is the key to successful investing. The human mind is a powerful, complex tool that quickly turns into a double-edged sword to those untrained in its control. It’s like driving a Formula-1 race car. A skilled driver can push his racer to its limits, extracting every last bit of performance. A novice driver on the other hand is better off in a mini-van. Put him behind the wheel of an F-1 and he’ll end up crashing straight into a wall. Psychology, or emotional strength, is the basis on which high-performance skills are built. It doesn’t matter whether it’s top performing traders, all-star athletes, or extreme back-country skiers. When it comes to risky, high-pressure situations, the mind either snaps into a flow state or crashes and burns. Decision quality in these high-stress situations requires a person to be emotionally sound. And the only way to develop this emotional toughness is through consistent self-reflection. The goal is to intimately understand both your strengths and weaknesses. It’s been said that investing is the best way for a person to truly understand himself. The markets will quickly unveil every character flaw, insecurity, and weakness that lies inside. This is the nature of the market and it’s why emotions tend to run wild within it. Fear, greed, hope, self-doubt…..it takes psychological preparation to manage this barrage. The failure to do so leads to disaster. To deal with these emotions, it helps to understand how the mind originally developed. Humans evolved over millions of years, spending a majority of their time roaming the planet as tribal hunters and gatherers. The advent of cities with large populations is relatively new considering that the Agricultural Revolution was only 10,000 years ago — a small tick of time in the grand scheme of human existence. The fact that our brains were primarily developed within the harsh tribal lifestyle has many implications on our psychological makeup. It also explains why our pre-wired instincts naturally make us horrible traders. So then what’s the deal with emotions? Are they an inherent weakness to humans? NOPE!!! In fact, emotions are very useful in certain situations. Think back to the plains life: A tribal man is walking back from a hunt when he’s suddenly confronted by a mountain lion. As the lion comes into view, his brain’s amygdala triggers a fight-or-flight response. The man is instantly hit with various emotions like fear, aggression, anxiety, etc. At the same time, physiological changes take place in his body. Hormones like adrenaline, testosterone, and cortisol are let loose to prep the man to either fight or run. The man’s emotional/physiological response not only makes him stronger and more capable to survive this encounter, but it also enables him to make a decision in the blink of an eye. There’s no time to sit and ponder the best course of action in a life-or-death situation. Speed is key and emotions are instrumental in fueling rapid decision making. Okay, so emotions are great when it comes to dealing with mountain lions… but what about in present day market situations? Consider this: A man’s entire life savings is invested in SPY. All of a sudden, the market plummets 5%. And then another 6% the next day. The man is faced with both extreme volatility and huge losses. His family’s financial security is on the line. If he loses his savings, he can’t send little Timmy off to college. And if Timmy doesn’t go to college, he’ll definitely end up flipping burgers for the next 30 years at the fast food joint down the street. It’s a life-or-death situation. A decision needs to be made quickly. *Queue the mountain lion emotional/psychological response.* Rampant emotions are no good here. Rapid, haphazard decision making doesn’t help either. The man’s love for Timmy will only lead him to make irrational choices that’ll destroy his savings in the long run. In scenarios like this, the fight-or-flight response works against you. This is where cool-headed, rational decisions prevail. A trader needs to transfer his decision making from his emotional Amygdala to his rational prefrontal cortex. Doing so will help him overcome his immediate emotional and physiological responses in order to make a more sound decision for his savings. In addition to controlling these emotions, we also have to contend with our strong evolutionary desire to “fit in”. Think back to our plains-roaming ancestors again. They used to move in small packs that would provide each other with protection and support. All basic needs like food and shelter were met through the group. This reality made it vital that an individual be accepted by his group. If he wasn’t well-liked, he’d be ostracized and forced to leave, which was the equivalent of a death sentence in those days. A tribeless person would have a difficult time surviving alone and exposed in the wild. The conformists of the group were the ones who survived the longest. They were also the ones who reproduced the most, passing on their genetic code. The “fitting in” mentality became a dominant survival trait that grew stronger as it passed from generation to generation over millions of years. This is the reason we’re all born with the natural need to be accepted by others. Doing something that goes against the tide, especially something that could cause us to be rejected from our group, goes completely against our nature. This mentality may have made sense in the past, but it doesn’t make sense today… especially in markets. Does It Pay To Always Go With The Crowd Or Does It Pay To Think For Yourself? The answer is obvious — it pays to think for yourself. And many times independent thinking will lead you to do the exact opposite of the crowd. As Warren Buffet once said regarding Berkshire Hathaway’s success — “We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.” Take March 2009 for example. Fear was running rampant and no one wanted to invest post-crisis. But this was the time when valuations were ripe for the picking. The market was getting ready to turn around. Going against the crowd and investing big during this period — being greedy when others were fearful — would have made you a fortune. This is why it’s so important to avoid falling victim to groupthink. An investor needs to make his own decisions based on his own convictions. But of course this isn’t easy. Thinking For Yourself Means Violating Your Biological Need To Be Accepted By Others. It Automatically Feels Unsafe And Uncomfortable . But The Ability To Manage This Negative Emotional Reaction That Comes With Independent Thinking Is The Key To Long-term Success . AVOIDING COGNITIVE BIASES IN TRADING. On top of rampant emotions and a dire need to “fit in” , our biological evolution also had another side-effect. It made us lazy. Back in the day we were faced with an endless cycle of feast and famine. We’d have short periods of feeding followed by long periods of minimal sustenance living. So naturally we evolved to conserve our energy as much as possible. If given two options we’re conditioned to choose the one that involves the least amount of effort. This applies not only to physical activities, but to mental functions as well. After all, the brain does account for up to 20% of the body’s total energy usage (more than any other organ). We’ll always go for the quick and easy solution over the tough one that requires more thinking. This is true even if the easy option ends up being wrong… To help facilitate this low-effort decision making we’ve developed Heuristics . Heuristics are simple, efficient rules we use to quickly make decisions and form judgments. They’re mental shortcuts that slice through complexity. Yet even though these Heuristics tend to work well most of the time, they can also lead to decisions devoid of rationality and logic. The resulting errors are what we call cognitive biases. Understanding these biases is important to help avoid them when making our trading decisions. Recency Bias Recency bias is believing what occurred in the recent past will continue to occur in the future. Say you flip a coin and get heads five times in a row. Naturally you’ll begin to think the sixth flip will also be heads. Heads is the trend. But in reality, you’d be wrong. This is called recency bias . You’re letting recent outcomes incorrectly influence your belief of future outcomes. No matter the outcome of the previous trials, the probability of the next coin flip being heads will always be 50%. Believing anything else is illogical. Investors consistently fall victim to this bias. It’s the main contributor to the complacency we see during each market cycle. Consider the “buy the dip” mentality that plagued the post-QE era. One of the greatest financial crises in history occurred 8 years prior, and in the time in between investors trained themselves to throw risk management out the window and aggressively buy more each time the market fell. It’s true that “buy the dip” worked well during that time, but there was no guarantee it would work in perpetuity. This is especially true considering the nature of market cycles. Strategies tend to work for a period of time until they don’t. And it’s usually the previously successful strategies that end up failing the hardest in the new environment. No one wants to be caught buying the dip when the market morphs from bull to bear. But unfortunately, recency bias leads a majority of investors straight off that cliff. “Buy the dip worked before… so it must work again!” Nope. Sorry. Gambler’s Fallacy On the other side of the coin (pun intended) we have the gambler’s fallacy (also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy). This is the opposite of recency bias. It occurs when you start believing that because a certain result happened more frequently in the past, there’s a higher probability a different result will occur in the future. Take the coin flip example again. Someone who flipped heads five times in a row may think the next flip has to be tails because of the 50% probability associated with the game. This is once again illogical. Over a large enough sample of trials (which can be performed through a Monte Carlo simulation), the number of heads and tails will be evenly split. But over any individual, shorter stretch, there is no requirement they must show up equally. You can have 100 head flips in a row and yet the probability of the next flip will still be 50% heads, 50% tails. The Gambler’s Fallacy is thinking the probability of a tails flip has increased based on the previous streak. Our “buy the dip” example once again shows the dangers of this bias in markets. The post-QE era was littered with the corpses of fund managers who tried to short the indices. Why’d they do it? It’s because they thought that after working so many times, “buy the dip” had to fail eventually. “Business cycles only last 5-7 years. It’s due time for the market to correct for real and blow out all these “buy the dip” idiots.” Again, this is not how it works. As John Maynard Keynes once said: “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” Sunk-Cost Fallacy / Loss-Aversion A sunk-cost fallacy is continuing an endeavour due to previously invested resources (time, money, effort) even when the optimal decision is to stop. Ever get full at dinner, but finish your plate anyway because you don’t want to waste the good money you paid for it? That’s the Sunk-cost Fallacy in action. Loss-aversion is the tendency to strongly prefer avoiding losses to acquiring equivalent gains. The pain of losing greatly overwhelms the pleasure of gaining. Marketers use Loss-aversion all the time. Which of the following headlines make you want to buy more? “Buy our insurance and save $100 a month!” Or “You’re losing $100 a month on insurance. Buy ours and save!” The second one of course. The thought of losing $100 is much more powerful than the thought of just saving it. Both Loss-aversion And The Sunk-cost Fallacy make it difficult to cut losses in the market. No one wants to cut a losing position after spending countless hours developing a thesis. It feels like a waste… all that work for nothing. It becomes easy to find yourself attached to an investment because of the Sunk-cost Fallacy. But this mentality is completely irrational. Refusing to cut a loser, regardless of the initial time investment, leaves you exposed to an even larger total loss (time & capital) down the line. Cutting a loss also becomes even harder when loss-aversion comes into play. Taking a loss not only means admitting you’re wrong, but also turns your paper loss into a real account drawdown. This is too much to handle for most, even if it’s in their best interest. The illogical fear of taking the pain now opens the door to even more pain in the future. Confirmation Bias Confirmation bias is seeking out information that supports an initial thesis while disregarding all else. Rose-colored glasses are a large problem in the investment world. Too many investors find a company they like and then proceed to become its #1 cheerleader. They only look for news and press releases that support their positive image of that company. Any fundamental warning signs are immediately disregarded and objectivity is squashed. This is asking to be unpleasantly surprised in the future. Confirmation bias creates a dangerous blind spot that has a high likelihood of decimating a trading account. Observational Selection Bias Similar to Confirmation Bias , Observational Selection Bias involves noticing a particular idea and then falsely assuming that the frequency of available evidence supporting that idea has increased. Say you develop a thesis that Solar Stocks should take off soon. And as soon as you create that thesis, you start to notice a huge increase in News stories and data that support it. This makes you even more confident in Solar Stocks. This is most likely the bias in action. Developing your initial solar thesis has you primed towards certain types of information. This priming is very easily confused with actual increasing sentiment towards the solar sector. Objectivity is once again smothered, making this bias crucial to avoid. These Cognitive Biases are completely natural to have. And that’s what makes them dangerous. We need to stay vigilant of these biases to make sure they don’t creep into our analysis process. Objective analysis is the key to success in the markets. But for objective analysis to flourish, biases need to be squashed. PLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR PLAN Clearly Our Biology And The Biases That Come With It Are Hazardous To Our Financial Health. But how exactly do we solve this problem? The trick is to Plan Your Trades And Trade Your Plan. The First Step To Successful Trading Is Creating A Solid Strategy That Accounts For Every Possible Market Scenario. High Volatility, Low Volatility, Black Swans, It Doesn’t Matter. Everything Should Be Planned For. Nothing Should Be A Surprise. A Detailed Strategy Will Pre-plan The Action Steps You’ll Take In Specific Market Situations. This Ensures You’ll Have Strict Guidelines To Follow When Your Emotions Inevitably Run Wild. Your Past Objective Mind Will Have Already Made The Correct Decisions For Your Current, Emotionally Charged, Irrational Mind. This Is How You Avoid Destructive Choices In The Heat Of The Moment. But This Only Works If You Actually Execute Your Plan When The Time Comes. This May Sound Simple. And Honestly It Is. But That Doesn’t Mean It’s Easy. Execution Is Difficult Because Our Biological Wiring Does Everything In Its Power To Prevent Us From Pulling The Trigger. Our Emotions And Biases Flare Up And We’re Forced To Do Battle With Them Before All Else. The Best Trading Plan In The World Won’t Prevent Your Fight-or-flight Response. It Won’t Cure Your Dire Need To Stick With The Herd Or Your Cognitive Biases Either. You’ll Still Experience All The Feelings That Come With Your Biological Reality. There’s No Way Around It. That’s why you need to accept it. Let the process play out. Feel what you’re feeling. But as it happens, take a step back, and from a distanced view, fully acknowledge what’s occurring. Objectively analyze it: “The market just dropped 400 points and I’m feeling x, y, and z. Why am I feeling like this? Should I be feeling this way? How should I react?” Explicitly following through with this exercise, either mentally, or even better by physically writing these questions and answers down, immediately switches your brain from using its emotional Amygdala to its rational prefrontal cortex. The process will prevent the type of knee-jerk decisions you’re trying to avoid while reminding you to stick to your pre-defined trading plan. Another effective tactic to ensure execution is reducing your stimuli. If the market is crashing, don’t sit in front of your computer screen and watch it. Every tick will cause an emotional response. And the more frequently you have to deal with these emotional responses, the more likely you’ll succumb to them and deviate from your trading plan. Just like you don’t trust a toddler with a bunch of colored markers in an empty, white-walled room, we don’t trust ourselves with a mouse and keyboard during trading hours. Both result in a mess. As the Legendary Trader Peter Brandt said: “Trading an upstream swim against human emotions.” These are wise words from a wise man. Plan your trades and trade your plan . That’s How You’ll Win In The End. & Thank For Reading Untill End, No Problem If You Skipping Some Text. I Hope You Find Something Useful In This Post. Stay Safe & Good Luck. Thank Alex Burrow MACROOPS Thank For Artist The Image
NASDAQ:METAEducation
by Zestiria
24
Bearish market is changing the rulesIt seems like all trading rules are out of control in this bearish market. One of the Greatest investors of all time Warren Buffett said "be greedy when others are fearful; and be fearful when others are Greedy" this rings true in the mind. However Buffer was an investor & not a traders. the rules differ or both games. THIS IS ONE OF MY BEST & MOST PROFITABLE trades. short term (W) is in correction while longterm (M) still technically in uptrend. price comes into the DZ which is the HL (Higher Low) of the longterm (M) chart. provide low risk entry & high profit. It seems in this market nothing hold true. As the price broke through the DZ. I followed my rules and took the Loss. If there is a lesson to carry. the DZ was tested (in the dark square) this basically weakens the DZ. One of my first trading teacher compared a DZ to a door. the more you knock on the door the more likely it will break down. This DZ door has been knocked before. it broke & the door opened. A better trade enhancer would of been a fresh untested DZ
TSX:ABXLong
by greatful-me
Why Warren Buffett pours billions of dollars into OXY ?Legendary investor Warren Buffet is pouring billions of dollars into Occidental Petroleum Corporation ! when it rejected heavily from strong and valid down trend line ! why ? Please note Buffett is a long term investor not a trader !. US market has been in a Bull run in large time frames (Yearly or Monthly) since 1932 therefore, any long term investor who chose fundamentally powerful stock has made a huge profit. Although I believe Berkshire could have chosen better time and maybe lower price to start buying shares of OXY, I think it will see higher prices in long term in fact, It goes much higher than ATH and will reach to around 180 USD per share or even higher in up coming YEARS. Now , lets look at what we have in technical point of view: 1. OXY was rejected strongly from valid down trend line in weekly time frame for 4th time . Break out of this heavy down trend line is very important for the stock to go higher. 2. In terms of Elliott waves, similar to many other energy stocks like XOM, COP, SLB and etc , OXY has completed and ascending complete wave cycle from IPO to latest major low (Primary degree waves 1 and 2 on the chart shown by green and red arrows respectively ). It means that impulsive section (Primay degree wave 3) of new wave cycle has been started at last major low around 9 USD. In closer look, currently we are in wave 4 of 1 of primary degree wave 3. Elliott wave labeling on the chart shows internal waves (12345) of wave 1 of primary degree wave 3. It means there is one more leg up ( wave 5 shown on the chart ) to complete wave 1 of primary degree wave 3. Then we will probably have a major correction (wave 2 of 3 ) down to 40-50 level and after completion of correction , wave 3 of 3 which is most profitable and most speedy wave will start. Please note this is most probable scenario and we are not talking about certainty. 3. Beside strong down trend line, there are many strong static resistances on OXY climb road. These Resistances are shown by red horizontal lines on the chart. Therefore, OXY will face difficulties on the way to reach it's target. One more important note : As Berkshire owns now around 20 % of company shares and they are long term holders, We can somehow be sure that 20 % of shares of company will be out of future sell pressure in up coming years which is very important note to be considered. All in all, I believe OXY , like many other energy stocks , offers huge profit for long term investor and traders. However, Is it a right time to open a long position? It depends on personality and risk management and patience of investors/traders. I myself, keep OXY in my watch list and think it can be bought on lower prices as shown by green lines. To me, buying a stock when it is struggling with a strong down trend line is dangerous and as always, I am seeking for a safe trade set up. I Hope this publication to be useful and wish you all the best.
NYSE:OXY
by SaeedSajedi
16
$CVX CHEVRON WYCKOFF plus INVERSE HEAD and SHOULDER Pattern$CVX Chevron Corp This is one of my favorite charts because it had a clear UPTHRUST WYCKOFF DISTRIBUTION PATTERN and I was able to short the full measured move down without a sweat and share that with my friends, yay money! Chevron has completed the full measured move down on the WYCKOFF distribution pattern and is showing signs of accumulation. A few things to note below: 1. Warren Buffet loaded on Chevron. 2. Supply on oil is still low and the demand is high. The government policy on oil refineries doesn't help the supply. 3. The Russia War on Ukraine is still in full effect. (prayers) 4. Their earnings lag, however, this stock will move significantly on news that directly effects these headlines. 5. It is a dividend paying stock, I believe the news will try hard to beat it down so hedge funds can load up. Like I mentioned above, $cvx appears to be in accumulation, it has formed a decent consolidation pattern. If you zoom into the 4 hour timeframe you will find a beautiful INVERSE HEAD & SHOULDER pattern developing (flip from bars to line chart for a different view). The left shoulder shows the highest selling volume bar and checks the box of a textbook inverse H&S. However, if this pattern fails, I have setup some support levels below. This one will be on the top of my watchlist next week!
NYSE:CVX
by ChaldeaCode
Compounding (Course #2)The power of compounding is one of Warren Buffett’s success factors. Compounding is why you can make a lot of money over time. You MUST understand the power of it, and use it. That’s it. Compounding is basically reinvesting what you earned into earning more. Why is this so powerful? Because each time you earn a percentage, that earning is in fact percentage of the initial + a percentage of the previous gains. Then, as you go on, the sum of all the small gains is growing exponentially, making you earn more and more! Take a look below: Day 1, I trade $1,000 and earn 2%. This is $20. My total account balance is $1,000 + $20 = $1,020. Day 2, I trade $1,020 and earn 2%. This is $20.40. My total account balance is $1,020 + $20.40 = $1,040.04. Day 3 … again, 2% Day 4, … …. Day 30, my account balance is now $1,775.84. I earn 2%. This is $35.52. My final account balance is now $1,811.36. This is a $811.36 gain over $1,000. Or, it is a 81% gain. See the first picture - Not impressed? Check the second picture, doing it for 6 month. Compare this to the third one, not compounding your gains. You can see if you were not compounding your gains in the first month, you would make $600 (60%) instead of $800+ (80+%). Conclusion: Compounding should be a no brainer. You won’t get rich by trading high leverage a few times and make big bucks. Yet, you can get very rich by compounding your gains, steadily, day-in and day-out.
BEducation
by Maddrix_club
Berkshire Hathaway B: Previous support provides good risk/rewardBerkshire Hathaway B - Short Term - We look to Buy at 275.30 (stop at 268.50) We look to buy dips. We are trading within a Bullish Ascending Triangle formation. Previous support located at 275.00. The primary trend remains bullish. We look for a temporary move lower. The bias is still for higher levels and we look for any dips to be limited. Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 275.00, resulting in improved risk/reward. Our profit targets will be 293.50 and 296.50 Resistance: 288.70 / 293.50 / 300.00 Support: 275.00 / 271.00 / 247.00 Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features. Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
NYSE:BRK.BLong
by Saxo
KHC is the 5th holding of Berkshire. What can we expect? Today we will look at Kraft Heinz, a stock in the top 5 holdings of Berkshire Hathaway, that has not been performing yet with stellar results, but that may change, or not... So first, let's look at some conclusions from a technical perspective. -From 2017 to 2019, the price was clearly on a bearish trend, defined for the most external trendline (white line) -From 2019 until the beginning of 2021, we observed a consolidation period where the price moved sideways between 37.00 and 27.00 -From 2021 until now, we observed the beginning of a slightly bullish trend and the first breakout of the bearish trendline -Now, we can see a corrective pattern on the edge of the previous trend (this type of behavior is typical to see when the price is about to break a key level (trendlines, or support/resistance. We will tend to observe any type of corrective patterns. Ok, what now? What's your view? I have defined activation, invalidation levels, and targets based on all the previous elements. IF the price reaches the green horizontal line, I will consider that my analysis is active, and I will think it is no longer valid if the price reaches the red horizontal line. The target for this movement is 64.00 (on the next resistance level), which means a 60% increase from the activation level. Regarding time , I think a movement like this will need around a year to happen (if it happens, of course...) What if the price never reaches the activation level and keeps falling? Then I will cancel my view. Are you trading this with your personal account? No, I'm not taking this setup. However, I find it an interesting chart, from a technical perspective and under the idea that it is the number 5 holding of Berkshire Hathaway. Thanks for reading; feel free to share your view in the comments.
N
by ThinkingAntsOk
3
Retest after the breakout on Berkshire.Today we will take a look at Berkshire Hathaway's price action . On this chart, we can see two major technical elements. 1) The current ascending trendline started at the bottom of the pandemic sell-off. While the price stays above that line, we should be open to bullish movements coming. 2) The current consolidation. Those structures are great situations to look for the beginning of new impulses. Berkshire has been moving sideways for the last 280 days, and a few days ago, we saw a new ATH, and now the restest is happening. That's why I have defined an activation level. IF the price makes a new ATH, I expect a bullish movement towards the fibo extensions. An invalidation level in case that happens is below the current correction around 268.77 In case everything goes as planned, my estimate is a 150 days movement towards the target. IF the activation level is never reached because the price keeps falling, then that's great "your order, or view" was never executed, and you stayed on the sideway. However, if the price reaches the activation level and goes below the corrective structure, that's why you use a stop loss, and you need to securely leave the market, paying your stop loss (which is never higher than 3% of my trading capital) Thanks for reading, feel free to share your view and charts in the comments!
NYSE:BRK.B
by ThinkingAntsOk
3
Rules By Warren Buffett (Educational)Hello everybody, today, we are going to talk about Warren Buffett and his rules and advice. Who is Warren Buffett? In an abbreviation, he is an american businessman and investor with an property of over 100 billion dollars. He is an old-school, but in some way, his rules are really impressive and are working. He also wrote an preface for the best book ever written on investing, The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham. 1. Reinvest Your Profits When you first make money, you may be tempted to spend it. Don’t. Instead, reinvest the profits. 2. Be Willing to Be Different Don’t base your decisions upon what everyone is saying or doing. Have your own reason to buy the stock. 3. Limit What You Borrow Buffett has never borrowed a significant amount — not to invest, not for a mortgage. In other words, if you can´t buy it twice, you can´t afford it. 4. Be Persistent A young boy who sold Coca-Cola for a nickel ended up being a majority shareholder of Coca-Cola. This transition does require persistence. Warren is an Realistic Optimist. He believed they will succeed but with planning, effort, and persistence even when times are tough. You don´t have to make deals every day, just watch markets and paper trade. 5. Know When to Quit Once, when Buffett was a teen, he went to the racetrack. He bet on a race and lost. To recoup his funds, he bet on another race. He lost again, leaving him with close to nothing. Buffett never repeated that mistake. 6. Know What Success Really Means Despite his wealth, Buffett does not measure success by dollars. In 2006, he pledged to give away almost his entire fortune to charities. 7. Stay In Your Circle Of Competence Imagine Circle with 3 layers. In the smallest layer, inside the circle, are things that you really know. In middle of circle are things that you think you know, but you don´t. And in an outer layer, the biggest one, are things that you don´t know. Warren recommends to stay in the smallest layer and just buy what you really understand. Otherwise it doesn´t mean that you have to be closed to every opportunities, but first of all, learn something about it. And this leads us into another topic: 8. Always Learn This is really important to understand, because you have to learn new things, that´s no rule, it´s an habit that you need to make. Learn about market every day, read articles, books, papertrade, watch youtube. In these days is super easy to learn something, all you need to have is good wifi connection and phone or notebook. Warren reads up to 500 pages every day. Try to beat him :) (good luck) 9. Two Legendary Rules These 2 rules are good to know, it seems really clear, but someone had to tell you: 1. Never Lose Money 2. Never Forget Rule Number One And that´s serious guys! Never lose money, that´s not your style. 10. Diversify When you are buying penny stocks, you have to buy one large-cap stock, because penny stocks are volatile and can drop to 0. It can make you big profits or big losses. With a large-cap stock, you will protect your portfolio from total crash, because large-cap stocks are not as volatile and as risky as penny stocks. You should diversify in sectors too. If in your portfolio are only oil companies and price of oil will go rapidly down, well, good luck. When you have money in oil companies, you should buy some stock from another sector, for example real estate or healthcare. Quotes By Warren Buffett „Cash was never a good investment." „I´d rather buy a wonderful business at a fair price, than a fair business with a wonderful price." „Big oppportunities in life have to be seen." „No matter how great the talent or efforts, some things just take time. You can´t produce baby in one month by getting nice women pregnant." End So, seems like we are at the end. Thanks for your effort to read it all, because my view is that it is really educational and you should know it. If you agree with me and Warren Buffett, please make sure you liked and i´ll see you again at another post. Have a nice day.
SP:SPXEducation
by TommyTK247
2
ETFs and rising concerns (TL;DR at end)ETFs are by far the most popular form of investment, regardless of whether you are a parent saving up for your child's college or you're a multi-millionaire/billionaire banker, a good portion of your investments will be in exchange traded funds, regardless of whether that fund is for commodities, industries or indexes. Since their first implementation in the 1990s, they've have grown rapidly as seen in the thumbnail of this idea ( AMEX:VOO ). In the words of Mr. Buffett himself, there is only one problem with index funds: "they're boring". You can't stand with your friends on the weekend at the barbecue and talk about all the trades you've made in response to crazy market action because you've got some fund manager who just holds the stock of everybody worth holding (in theory). All you do is put more money into it, or take money out of it. However, recently I came to the realisation (like many other investors), they're becoming ludicrously priced. Not just the individual price but the overall market cap with companies like Blackrock and Vanguard holding quite conceivably hundreds of billions if not trillions of dollars within ETFs. Now there are concerns regarding a potential crash in the ETF market or at least the funds that trade through indeces. As far as the cause of such crash, I wouldn't dare attempt to make some degree of educated guess as anything could happen. One may consider me rather cynical when it comes to this topic but I'm sure I'm not the only person who has a problem with losing money. Now there is absolutely nothing one can do about a crash but there are other solutions to minimise losses especially in a market that is trading so dangerously high. I would personally (assuming I had the financial capacity) take out around 60-75% of my overall investments in ETFs and transfer them to AAA rated state issued bonds or simply reinvest the money in stocks I already hold. Then I would continue my regular dollar cost averaging approach to investment in ETFs (or whatever the frequency is that you add money to such funds) until such a crash may occur. At a given point, (depending on the fund and how severe the crash is) I would increase the frequency and amount of money I add to such funds as the price drop should cause them to appear very attractive. Understandably, many people will disagree with this approach as you are still setting yourself up to lose money (unless you remove all your money from the funds, while you still could potentially continue earning. This results in the investor being left in some sort of dilemma. Although this is another discussion for another day) and "past performance is no indicator of future results" but this is the approach I would take. As usual, other opinions, facts, news and comments are always welcome so comment away and stay safe! TL;DR: ETFs are trading very high in price (dangerously) and a potential crash is luring (if you have a cynical outlook).* *See the last paragraph on what I would do, due to such a situation being upon us.
A
by Michael_Axio
Apple and the price climbOnce again I'm investigating the financial condition and potential performance of a tech company as they do hold great interest to me. Today, I'm taking a look at NASDAQ:AAPL , a company I once despised for their obscene operating scheme. Where 85% of their business was through reputation, the idea that a person is only cool if they have the latest iPhone and a Macbook and the other 15% was through corporate deals and actual entertainment production professionals. After doing some investigation into the company, I've come to realise quite a number of interesting things that shoot all my prior grudges with them straight out of the sky. First of all, looking within the market itself, their obscene prices are no longer that astronomical and are actually practical and reasonable given the current technology market and second, when they claim to cater for professionals and a particular minimalist "ease-of-use" customer, they're actually covering their needs now. With the development of the new M1 chip and hopefully the M2 soon to come and the development of the new iPads and Mac Minis, the company's physical product is appearing very attractive. Now to the actual financial side of things, starting off with the most basic of indicators, Apple has considerably low debts in comparison to other tech giants and their respective growth rates and as far as their current P/E ratio is considered they're showing more hope than any other technology giant with a PE just less than 30 (28.58 at time of writing). Within the market competitors are looking at frightening volumes of debt due to the Corona Virus pandemic but Apple seems to stay relatively clear. This would probably explain why Warren Buffett has poured such large volumes of Berkshire Hathaway's money into the company. Ironically, since BRK's interest in Apple, their prospects seem to have changed for the better and future expected growth in earning's increased by more than 4 percentage points after BRK's investment. As we all know Mr. Buffet wouldn't pour money into a company if he did not believe their long term results were unsatisfactory. In conclusion, Apple is beginning to look like quite the appealing investment if an investor would like to uplift their tech side of their portfolio. If anybody has any other opinions or facts that I may not be aware of, feel free to comment. I always appreciate the exchange of ideas :D TL;DR: Apple is beginning to look like one of the best performing long term investments of all the tech giants.
NLong
by Michael_Axio
Low Cost Index Funds and the "bubble"As the majority of the investment community is aware, low cost index funds such as the iShares CSPX are a great way of investing your money in such a way that it will beat inflation and any other factors that will reduce the overall value of your money. Warren Buffett (CEO of Berkshire Hathaway) is notorious for recommending low cost index funds to those who are inexperienced in the stock market and even long term investments. There have recently been many arguments that made me question the integrity of this seemingly flawless investment ideology. Even Buffett said the "only" downfall to index funds is that they are, and I quote, "boring". These arguments that have sparked up across the internet are by those who fear that the inherent price of these index funds are far beyond their actual value despite them holding the top performing stocks in the market. Thus removing the need for investors to investigate individual companies and rather stand at the sidelines and say "Just buy them all and see what wins". This attitude towards index funds and the ludicrous prices/growth (in comparison to any other listed entity and their own past) has sparked major concern. I have provided a link to a video below that discusses the 2 opposing ideas presented by Warren and Michael Burry (Famous for his prediction of the stock market crash of '08) and what each of them mean. From my view point (albeit mildly inexperienced) has led me to believe that in the long run despite the concerns, there will be crashes, like every other market ever, but these crashes will be shrunk by the overall growth in the following years and or decades, therefore making it worthwhile to invest in such index funds while dedicating at least 5% of your portfolio in individual stock. TL;DR: It is inevitable that there will be a crash in all index funds at some point or another (that cannot be changed) but in the far longer term view, it will still be worth your time, money and effort to invest in such equities.
LLong
by Michael_Axio
StoneCo (STNE) | Warren Buffet Stock To BUY!Hi, StoneCo is one of them that is on the Berkshire Hatheway list. Warren Buffett's advice to be "fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful" is probably one of the world's most famous and frequently repeated investing quotes. Considering that, STNE looks promising. StoneCo is a leading provider of payment-processing and other financial technology services in Brazil, but the company's share price has been crushed by what could be described as a perfect storm of headwinds. In addition to inflation and political concerns, regulatory changes in the country have dampened the performance and outlook for the company's credit business. The company's share price is now down roughly 67% from the high that it hit earlier this year, and many investors appear to have given up on the stock. I think that's probably premature, and I'll be adding it to my holdings in the near future. When it comes to growth stocks, I like to look for companies that are on track to benefit from powerful long-term trends. StoneCo certainly fits the bill. Cash is still a more popular payment method than credit cards and mobile payments in Brazil, but that's starting to change, and StoneCo is helping businesses adapt to the shift. E-commerce is also on track for huge growth in Brazil and other Latin American markets, and the fintech specialist stands out as an appealing "pick and shovel" stock for benefiting from the trend. While the overall stock market continues to look volatile, StoneCo looks attractively valued and has big upside at current prices. Pushing through the fear surrounding the stock could prove very rewarding for patient investors. Considering long-term goals and considering that it is technically inside a quite strong buying zone I can recommend it here as an idea for you. Do your own research! Regards, Vaido
NLong
by VaidoVeek
4