Is trading mostly psychology? Just thoughts.The craziest thing to me about trading is that so many traders will interpret the same exact chart in so many different ways. Some traders will buy and some will sell with both traders closing at a lost.Why does it happen well it could be many different reasons, but I bet the main reason came down to not handling your emotions.The first trader could have been desperate to make money so he didn't wait for the right setups .The second trader might have had a good entry but was way over leveraged and one small move to the wrong side could have caused a losing trade.Being desperate to make a lot of money fast maybe the reason why so many traders lose money. Comment below any thoughts you may have I am also looking forward to learn.
"The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." – Warren Buffett
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Warrenbuffet
Why BTC could be going MUCH lower. Part II: Vox populi"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”
Possibly one of the most influential quotes of all time when it comes to investing. While this is necessarily not always the case, Warren Buffet understands that the whole merry-go-round that we call the stock, gold etc. markets are based on one, though far from simple, thing: psychology of the participating individuals.
It is the reason why 90% of all individuals fail in trading as they are lead by emotions and irrational deicisions. The other 10%? They understand the game and simply go against the mass sentiment of the sheep, profiting of off them in the process.
So what is the current sentiment in the crypto sphere?
alternative.me
Well, if we take a look at the crypto fear and greed index we can see that currently greed is in the market with a valuation of 57 (you can look up on what the whole algorithm is based on). If we take the TA approach, we can see that the 60 mark provides a heavy resistance. 56 is the point at which Bitcoin tumbled, broke 6k and capitulated (though if that was the true capitulation remains to be seen).
What does this mean?
Well, firstly, do note that there are times when a greedy overall sentiment can be justified. For example, if Bitcoin made a higher high and established a firm support at a new level that would definitely mean that greed is, at least for the short tem, a justified sentiment. Another example would be Bitcoin decisively breaking the 6k support-now-resistance level as that would essentially signal the start of a new bull market.
But, with that being said, can the greed really be justified in this point in time?
If you look at the TA fundamentals, we are now facing heavy resistance on a weekly time frame with a multitude of indicators:
1. 200 EMA (in red) is holding the price firmly below 4100
2. 20 MA (in black) is falling down like a bomb and though an argument can be made that we broke it, I would like to see a breakout with A LOT of volume. Breaking such significant MA is no small feat and any breakout without volume cant really be taken particularly seriously.
3. RSI on the weekly is 1. overextended and 2. at a super heavy resistance around 43,44
In short, the sentiment is telling us moon while the TA is telling us a completely different story. That would make the current greed sentiment UNJUSTIFIABLE.
I plan to take additional short positions and cant wait for these thing to fall like a rock to at least 200MA. Once there we will evaluate the position and react appropriately.
Stay tuned for Part III of the series, where we will take a look at an indicator with a literally 100% accuracy. Thank you!
P.S. If you like my analysis, please hit a like as otherwise, if no one is reading them there is no point in writing them either.
This 12 Year old child knows everything!!!Hi, my name is Rory
I am the proud teacher of my 12 year old financial analysis student. He began at age 9 he traded with paper trading now his father make the orders for him. He told me that he earned last week 2300 Dollar or ~+20%. He‘s a genius. And if someone have a question ask me and i will ask the young Warren Buffet.
Ps: In this year he reached ~90%
Berkshire HathawayAs you can see from the monthly cart, Berkshires growth is steady and consistent, this is probably because they are owned by in my opinion 1 of the worlds best ever investors... Warren Buffett.... if you don't know who he is then you clearly should not be investing.
We are long on this position with no real TP as this is a long term investment, but obviously we have a SL as trading anything without a SL is just stupid.
Weekly H&S sign of the timesETN is a strong stock judging by it's excellent income statement and balance sheet. Improvements YoY stay in line with the Warren Buffett criteria for buying a company. This company handles improving energy usage, and let's face it, that's super important. This could be a stock that sees a huge upside, for now the target is around $85. I would assume that it would retrace a little more with the other US indices and be on sale later this summer. It seems like it was a hidden gem earlier. People interested in the electric cars were hot on it last couple years. Now BTC is hot topic and ETN is tossed aside, but this company could have its foot in the right door for a lot of reasons. It looks like a possible head and shoulders forming, to take advantage of lower prices.
BRK.B What is going to happen next?Looking at $196 at Support and $212 at Resistance
Holding Period: 1 months
Potential Gain: $6
Reason:
It is Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-B)!!!!!
Not Confident that it will go uptrend?
Wait till golden cross at $196
EMA 20,50: short term downtrend
EMA 200: long term uptrend
Volume of trade: Normal
Market Sentimental: Consolidation (Consfused)
Reason: Trade War, causing short term emotional panic
Let me know if you have any comments.
BTC "The King" May Correct Following Historical FUD Patterns...While everybody is sure that the bleeding has stopped following the FUD news in the media, I am taking a further look back in history where we have seen these cards play out before. Now, before you consider that I am hoping Bitcoin to fall, I simply am not. Bitcoin has had a MASSIVE bull run over the year, particularly in Dec-17, and there has been many "healthy corrections" that have followed - this isn't something new! Overall, I am very bullish that Bitcoin will reach ATH soon over this year and we have not entered a Bear Market. But, what I am speculating is that BTC has broken out of its uptrend channel and is looking rather fragile. At the same time, altcoin markets have had a lot of coin pumped into it, and there are very few undervalued cryptos out on the market IMO.
So, with the fact that we are beginning to get alot of FUD news thrown the past week, along with today's bleed, I am looking at the 50, 100, and 200 Day Moving Averages to be sure (incase of a bad scenario). At the moment we are sitting on the 50 Day. Should there be more unwarranted news then I believe the 100 Day will be our most likely case, following a very quick bounce up. In a very unlikely case, the 200 Day perfectly aligns with the last dips we have had with the recent two cycles (shown in the blue trendline). Ultimately, I would see that it depends now whether we close the Day above or below the 50 Day.
What are your thoughts? Are you bullish Bitcoin and Altcoins will continue to break new highs? Is there any FUD news you think could swing the price of Bitcoin? Are there more precise indicators that show bullish signals? Let me know in the comments below.
PLEASE NOTE: Consider all trades with caution and only invest what you can afford to lose as cryptocurrency is highly unpredictable. Take profits and Invest in yourself. You can afford it, trust me. This is not Investment advice!
SOURCE:
www.reuters.com
www.reuters.com
www.reuters.com
www.reuters.com
Namaste!
Look Where You LEAP!SPX 500 Hit some interesting zones today, didnt exactly follow my projected path to the T, never the less it hit the 79% Retracement Zone and reversed so sharply. This can also be a possible false move downward so I'm neutral and waiting for confirmation.
The general market does look quite weak at the moment. PNRA hype seemed to have subsided and bigger Investors used the optimism to offload positions to dumb money today.
i'm looking for a gap upandma maybe another push to the 88.6% Zone. However, feel free to think about shorting when bullish momentum proves to be dying.
PSX: Warren Buffet's callThis stock is acting great (and similarly to $PBF and $MPC, it's a great long term play, with immediate entry parameters).
If not long the stock you can look to get long on either, dips to support, price moving above the previous daily close or a new daily high. As long as it stays above the light blue box, it's highly likely accelerating to the upside, and heading to 84.53 in the short term.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
GOLD 60 DOUBLE TOP 2618 TRADEHi guys,
Here, I am looking for a reversal. The market was in a nice bullish move but this double top has now occurred. There is already a break at the bottom of the double top so I am now looking for a pullback at the 61.8 retracement level to give myself that extra bit of confirmation. I will have a sell limit in place at that level. This trade is known as the 2618 trade.
My stop loss will go above the double top and that level has also held good resistance in the past. My first target will be at the low of the break and my second target will be at the next support/resistance level. IF the first target is hit, I will take off half of the position and move the stop loss to break-even for the second half of the trade, ensuring a risk-free trade.
Thank you for your support.
Trade Numbers:
Risk: 16 points x 2 = 32 points
Reward #1: 16 points. R:R = 1:1
Reward #2: 26 points. R;R = 1:1.6
USDCAD 4H Bearish CYPHER PATTERN @ 1.2870Hi Guys,
This is a bearish CYPHER pattern @ 1.2870 and stop loss will be placed above the X leg which is used as good resistance in this case. Targets will be at the 38.2% and 61.8% fibonacci levels. IF/WHEN first targets are met, half of the position would be closed for profit and stop loss for the second half of the position will be moved to break-even, ensuring a risk-free trade.
Thank you for your support.
Trade Numbers:
Risk: 150 pips x 2 = 300 pips
Reward #1: 160 pips. R:R = 1:1.05
Reward #2: 255 pips. R:R = 1:1.70
Plan your trade... Trade your plan.
AUDUSD 60 Bearish BAT PATTERN @ 0.7740Hi guys,
I thought I would share a pattern I am most fond of, the BAT pattern . I admire this setup because it mainly follows the overall trend and takes into account major support and resistance levels. As a strong believer in economics and harmonics, I believe this pattern gives 2 things which most traders strive for: 1) Good risk-to-reward and 2) Good win percentage %.
Back to the trade idea, it is a bearish BAT pattern @ 0.7740 in which i would have a sell limit in place and stop loss will be placed above the X leg which we use as good resistance in this case. Targets will be at the 38.2% and 61.8% fibonacci levels. IF/WHEN first targets are met, half of the position would be closed for profit and stop loss for the second half of the position will be moved to break-even, ensuring a risk-free trade.
Thank you for your support.
Trade Numbers:
Risk: 50 pips x 2 = 100 pips
Reward #1: 73 pips. R:R = 1:1.5
Reward #2: 120 pips. R:R = 1:2.4
Plan your trade... Trade your plan.