📍Part #2, Elliott Waves: "Motive Waves - Impulse".👩🏻💻 Welcome to the 2nd lecture on Elliott Waves.
So, Elliott Wave Theory suggests that price behavior follows a wave structure, with three waves being impulse waves and 2 being corrective waves. It can be said that these 5 waves look like the image above.
➡️For example, let's take an upward impulse, where the impulse refers to all these five waves. We observe the first wave of growth, then the second wave is corrective to the first, meaning the second wave is specifically a correction for the first wave. Next, the third wave is a growth wave, the fourth is corrective for the third, and the fifth wave concludes the impulse. Following the completion of the impulse or the five-wave sequence, a correction occurs in the form of A, B, C.
➡️This entire structure is fractal, meaning that if our upward impulse has three waves, and they are also impulse waves, such as the first, third, and fifth, and as impulse waves, as we already know, consist of five waves, then each impulse within this larger five-wave sequence has the same structure of five waves. Furthermore, in the correction A, B, C, waves A and C also have a five-wave structure, but more on that in the next lessons.
➡️If you ask about the timeframes to work with waves, I would say that the 1-hour timeframe is the threshold below which it is not recommended to consider the structure!
Next, I will describe the basic rules and regulations concerning impulses in the form of pictures, which are convenient to save and use as a hint when analyzing charts.
➡️Now let's consider some rules that are mandatory for all impulse movements.
Rules
An impulse always subdivides into five waves.
Strong guidelines
📍Wave A almost always will alternate with wave B. Alternation can be expressed in two ways:
1) In the type of correction: sharp/sideways or vice versa
2) In the presence of extension: in waves 2 and 4 of the impulse, two sideways patterns are possible, but only one of them will have an extreme beyond the peak of the previous wave.
📍Wave 4, as a rule, significantly violates the channel formed by the subwaves of wave 3.
📍As a strong norm, no part of wave 4 should enter the price territory of wave 1 or 2.
📍As a strong norm, the peak of wave 4 should not extend beyond the doubled channel constructed from the peaks of waves 1, 2, and 3, while the midline of the channel will serve as the minimum achievable target.
📍Second waves of impulses tend to go beyond the previous fourth wave. When using this norm, the previous fourth wave serves as the minimum target.
📍Sometimes wave 5 does not move beyond the end of wave 3 (in which case it is called a truncation).
📍Often, waves 1 and 5 of the impulse form impulses, but more often they alternate in the type of motive waves: if wave 1 is an impulse, expect wave 5 in the form of a diagonal, and vice versa. Less commonly, waves 1 and 5 form diagonals, but in this case, alternation will be expressed in the form of a pattern: contracting/expanding.
So there are also many other lesser indications, but they are too numerous and less frequent.
Therefore, I recommend that we focus on the main ones for the time being.
📣This concludes the lecture on impulse waves. Save the images and practice.
Next week I'll start talking about the Leading and Ending diagonals.
🔔 Links to other lessons in related ideas. 🔔
Wave
Bitcoin - Probabilistic MapSince traders are literally made of particles, it's vital to know the principles of their behavior in micro scale. Some people even use planetary cycles to implement into charting. But I believe the answer is deep in quantum world of probabilities - the fabric of reality itself.
Reference to Quantum Mechanics
The universe itself prohibits 100% prediction accuracy. This is called Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle, and it's the fundamental building blocks of Quantum Mechanics. In order to predict particles behavior, all you need are just 2 quantities/data/features:
1) Position of the particle
2) Momentum of the particles.
If you know it's position and it's momentum, you can easily predict it's trajectory. So if you have position and momentum data of all particles in the universe, and you have unlimited computational power, you can predict their behavior (interaction, movement, etc.), and basically predict the future (stock market, weather, natural disaster, etc).
However, the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle states that it is impossible to collect information of particles's position and momentum with 100% certainty. The more certain you know about particle's position, the less certain it's momentum" and vice versa.
So if somehow with the unlimited computational power you can predict particle's position at time with 100% accuracy, then your prediction error for its velocity will be infinity, which prevent you for making accurate further predictions, rendering your model useless.
Hence, it's theoretically impossible to make 100% accurate prediction even with unlimited data and unlimited computational power.
So Is The Universe deterministic or probabilistic?
100% prediction accuracy also means the universe is deterministic - there's only one possible outcome of the future. Einstein was on this side, citing "God doesn't play with dice". On the other hand, folks like Heisenberg, Max Born, Schrodinger, Oppenheimer, etc.., the founding fathers of Quantum Mechanics, viewed the future as set of possible outcomes each having it's own probability.
Since market couldn't care less about anyone's subjective forecasts, I do predictions solely based on historic price dynamics in macro scale to stay objective and true with the market pulse rather than be bared with my endless interpretations of patterns. I don't need my consciousness to interpret because we already have a data derived from collective consciousnesses to work with. Chart is already a reflection of reality that captures the emotions of participants. In other words, it's a time fractal that exposes the essence of the market across timeframes. In turn the market itself is a function of trading time . These basis justify linking systematic fragments of cycles to work out the capacity of price action. Basically in Fractal Analysis, the question is how can direct metrics of the historic waves geometrically explain current and future price levels.
The Fibonacci sequence is a mathematical concept that appears in various aspects of nature. This connection between mathematics and the natural world is a fascinating example of how patterns and structures found in abstract concepts like numbers can manifest in physical reality . Particularly, using Golden Ratio as a key rule that governs order in chaos.
In TradingView, the "Fibonacci Channels" is a great tool to capture the waves (domestic certainty) and turn them into a probabilistic interconnected structure that captures the uncertainty of the market - the entanglement of price action.
To start with it's vital to use log scale where percentages are equally captured in distances. So a 100% a growth, say a vertical distance from $40 to $80 measures the same distance as from $1000 to $2000. Besides, percentages are what drives people to feel emotions which affect market behavior (collective executions). Finding geometric relationship between waves, the use of log scale is a must.
As I've done this before I want to show how market deviates near fibs.
A Direction of 2013 HIGH ⇨ 2017 HIGH with bottom of 2011 gives next bottom 2015 at 0.618 after -86% drop.
And also predicts the COVID bottom in 2019 after -72% drop as well as current level where price has cooled down locally.
We can note that previous ATHs are explained with logarithmic curve.
That's why we'd need another fib channel to connect 2017 HIGH ⇨ 2021 HIGH direction with previous bottom of -86% drop in 2015. FC of that direction predicts bottoms of 2018 (-84%) and covid 2019 (-72%) at 0.618 again.
Together they produce an interference pattern covers significant historic price changes.
To further interpret current levels though the chart itself, we can use line with angle of direction connecting 2021 double tops:
This shows the capacity of how high the market might still grow before next significant correction, if the local fib to the price hasn't yet dimmed the bullish incentive.
Another straight line can be used to connect 2019 COVID LOW (-72%) with 2022 LOW, because we might probably never see such price levels in the nearest future as price has broken out with high rate of change.
Now it needs more time and bearish capacity to go there. This line can indicate the bottom of hypothetical correction, if it happens now. Other than that it's a clear trendline with almost 4Y wavelength.
Since straight lines doesn't exist in nature, I didn't extend them to the right. Now we need a more adaptive version of it to connect recent local bottoms of the trend.
That would be a logarithmic trendline, in other words curves to mimic the function of exponential growth. Therefore falling below it, might indicate a possibility of correction and even reversal. Each day if it fails to grow with the curve, the bears will get depleted. A cross below the logarithmic curve of spreading information would be a confirmation of new bearish incentive. This is simply done to work out boundaries as limits of the function that explains the market.
Corrective wave has a timing of 15 days in respect to its domestic volatility properties, before it becomes bearish impulsive or continues the impulsive bullish wave.
Curves as a function of trading time explain pretty much all historic bullrun growths.
As if there is some kind of gravity that governs the trend or it's the PriceTime that curves with the emerging trend.
Individual cycles can be too curved accordingly.
So the more the price fails to break out that function, the more predictive curve becomes.
WAVE price update NASDAQ:WAVE Price Update: After a successful breakout from a zone marked in green, we will see massive gains. We could take entry after 4 hours candle close above the marked zone. Always use stop-loss. Everything is on the chart
50%+We have fear in the markets and SEI is ready for a FULL MOONPotential wave 5 of wave five coming in HOT!
It is on schedule witht the full moon as others are not IMO.
Fresh 30% correction and primed for the breakout!!
Will BTC stall and pmup the others like how Sushi just pumped?
Doge is also ready to fly!!
GOLD, will NFP finally start wave C?Hello everyone,
Gold currently confusing traders as it switches between correctional movements and speculative pullbacks. From a technical point of view the 2067 level is now very important for the next move, which I expect to be a short one. Only a daily candle close above can invalidate the short scenario which would have the targets 1980 , 1920 and 1895 .
The yellow triangle is a possible reversal zone for a wave 2 bottom and bullish move towards new ATH with targets at 2300 and 3000 .
Looking at the big picture of Gold, it has been in a very long consolidation in the 1640 - 1980 range. So far every breakout attempt over the upper boundary has been sold within a few days. But with the break above 2000 related to the middle east conflict Gold was able to stabilize above 1980. Most likely the 1980 will be retested to built liquidity for a bullish move first.
I suggest to go short to anticipate in wave C of wave 2. The reversal zone for this move is the current resistance 2060 - 2067.
I will keep you updated if I see conformation or trading opportunities. If you have any questions feel free to contact me.
BTC Correction Incoming: ICT Unicorn Model?This resembles an ICT Unicorn model (not sure if this is what you call it tho): Price obtained liquidity above, accompanied by a robust volume push-down to 38.5k, forming a breaker block coinciding with a Daily FVG. It's noteworthy that the current Breaker block level constitutes 50% of the present range, validating the corrective wave. Anticipating a price retracement to the daily FVG above 38k or completion of the corrective wave in the range of 32k-36k, where liquidity and an unfilled daily FVG are apparent.
Please manage your risk because price can still go higher around that premium zone.
GOLD, will CPI news confirm the downtrend?Hello everyone,
after a predicted pullback from 1980 area Gold reached it's highest point at 2088 and turned bearish again. To be honest I didn't expect the move to extend so high, but these things can happen. Finally it's likely that Gold topped out wave B at 2088 and started wave C with the main target at 1920. So far nothing new (check my latest analysis).
How will CPI news effect Gold tomorrow?
There is no clear answer to this question, as we have to observe the next move of the dollar, which started a slight counter trend. If it will break over the local resistances formed within the last days, Gold will fall further.
Important levels for Gold
Resistance area: 2040 - 2050
Support areas: 2000 - 2010 and 1970 - 1980
Elliot wave analysis
If wave C started at 2088, we probably have seen most of the first wave down, which you can see in red on the chart. I don't see an impulsive decline, so this scenario is quiet likely. The exact position for the subwave count are always hard to figure out, so please look for confirmation before you make a trade.
Trade idea
Sell 2032-2040 with TP 2010 and SL 2051
Buy 2000-2010 with TP 2030 and SL 1998
Negative Wolfe wave pattern, RSI, MFI using TF2H on CHZ/USDTUsing TF2H on CHZ/USDT chart, in this method we used a Wolfe wave negative pattern with negative divergence in RSI and MFI, you may check out the ETA and EPA of this analysis as well as the TPs and SL. please share your thoughts on my analysis, your criticism is crucial to developing me in analysis. Thanks!
⚠️Disclaimer: this is not for real-money use but only made for educational purposes⚠️
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GbpUsd formed a Wedge pattern(Rising Wedge)Looking for Impulse Down.
GbpUsd moving down soon.It is on retracement now. You should look for entry on lower Time Frame. GU formed a bearish rising wedge pattern to fall. It's important to have your own rules on RR and adhere to them. This trading idea is intended to assist you and enhance your knowledge. If you have any questions, please ask me in the comments.
Learn & Earn!
Wave Trader Pro
DOW JONES US30 (WALL STREET)Wall street on max highest level as end of 2023 (woo!) according to my speculation on wall street price moves into wave cycles and liquidity grab. after price has taken previous highest liquidity(monthly) we about to see newer price cycles to the downside if not price doesn't close above the the invalidation zone since its our only guard for price to resist the zone.
COMMENT FOR ANY VIEWS
TRAP XAU R:R 1:1.25 This is a technical analysis for daily trading on the XAUUSD pair. Only using WAVE we can create Sell Limit and Buy Limit pending orders with R:R 1:1.25.
Sell Limit: 2040.00
SL : 2043.83
TP: 2035.24
Buy Limit : 2032.38
SL : 2028.56
TP: 2037.15
Note:
* Close sell limit if the price has reached 2028.56
* Close buy limit if the price has touched 2043.83