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Wave2

Bitcoin: Next Support Levels To Watch For Reversal Higher?Resistance zone prevents Bitcoin from pushing higher which is NOT unusual since this market is STILL IN A CORRECTIVE CONSOLIDATION. In fact, the 11650 low of the previous inside bar was taken out, generating a new sell signal. Both of our swing trade ideas reached their respective targets days ago, and all we maintain now is inventory from an average price in the high 6Ks. The goal of this article is to provide perspective on what we are looking for NEXT in order to get back into a new swing trade. I have to point out, even though a sell signal was triggered, we have a VERY strict policy of operating LONG ONLY strategies in this particular space. We often get criticized (by very INEXPERIENCED participants) for "MISSING OUT" on numerous opportunities on multiple time frames by keeping a focus on longs only. Guess what? We learned a long time ago that you DO NOT NEED TO BE IN EVERY MOVE in order to generate a positive long term performance. Focusing on one side eliminates risk and a whole plethora of fakes out, noise and other adverse situations that only prove to ERODE capital over time. I need to repeat this often: LESS IS MORE in the arena of short term market timing. Guess what else? Staying on the side lines COSTS NOTHING, whether we are right, wrong, or MISS A BIG MOVE. Meanwhile, our capital is perfectly preserved for the next HIGH probability opportunity that FITS OUR CRITERIA. Now at this point, many analysts and "experts" will be calling for shorts. Here is what you need to consider: the broader trend is bullish, as evidenced by the large 5 Wave impulse that peaked near 14K. This means smart money will most likely be looking to buy pullbacks, NOT SELL INTO THEM, even within a broader corrective consolidation like Bitcoin is in now. Selling or shorting into such a situation therefore carries ELEVATED RISKS. Support can always show up randomly, but probabilities point toward specific levels. The levels on our radar are the 11,000 and 10,150 regions. These are the locations we are watching for new reversal patterns such as pin bars, or inside bars. Since they are proportional to the recent bullish swing, they offer a higher probability of reversal AND more attractive reward/risk compared to a random support level. The question we often ask: is this still Wave 2 or is Bitcoin in the very beginning of a broader Wave 3? Since we require a breakout above 14K to prove this market is likely in a Wave 3, we have no choice but to continue to expect Wave 2 behavior to continue. This is why we ANTICIPATE fake outs, respect our targets, and look to buy at particular support levels rather than buy on hope, or some other irrelevant opinion. When Wave 3 proves itself, not only do we expect a run to 20K, but we also know there will be continuation patterns along the way that will provide entry opportunities for swing trades. We do NOT fear missing out, because we know there are no limit to new opportunities. The key is having specific criteria that defines the reward/risk and general probability. There is NO precision in this game, but there are general guidelines that offer enough perspective to align with the market consistently, NOT RANDOMLY. In summary, there is NO NEED to over react to Bitcoin pulling back. Do NOT get all caught up in the over the top bearish sentiment that appears, because there is NOTHING in the market structure at the moment that justifies expectations of price going below 9500. Just because price has retraced a few hundred points means VERY LITTLE relative to the bigger picture. NO MAJOR SUPPORTS have been compromised, and nothing on the broader price structures have changed. In this environment, pullbacks offer an opportunity to buy, because that is what the broader market structure favors, just not at ANY price. Either way, to improve your game, developing your own set of criteria will do you better than any internet expert will. It should not be complicated, and it helps if it is built around a proven frame work like Elliott Wave. I cannot provide specific timing in these articles, but I can tell you how we generate sensible ideas. You will never make any real progress until your decision making process is rooted in some form of a structured routine.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
23
Bitcoin: Another Fake Out Or The Rally To 20K?Bitcoin is nearing our second target that we shared as part of our alternate swing trade idea almost a week ago. Why are we not calling for 20K or some other unrealistic target? Again it has everything to do with the proportions of the recent price structure. The goal of this analysis is to provide a sense of perspective and context as they relate to short term timing strategies like swing trades. Why Not 20K? It begins with Elliott Wave. That is the foundation that provides a broad road map that helps to define locations and probabilities of how the market is LIKELY to react, NOT definitely react. Those who knock this framework do not recognize its value because they are too focused on precise outcomes. It is usually dismissed as too subjective, since there are so many different interpretations of the same situation. The key to Elliott Wave is to use it in a general sense, NOT in a super detailed complex way. We used it in a general sense when we were able to OBJECTIVELY identify a broader 5 Wave impulse structure (which peaked at 14K). That structure represents a large degree Wave 1. After Wave 1, naturally comes Wave 2. Wave 2's are CORRECTIVE. Knowing this tipped us off AFTER the 14K peak was confirmed, that the following price activity was going to most LIKELY be range bound, noisy, and full of fake outs. We anticipated this type of price action for weeks. How Did This Help Us? Since we had REALISTIC expectations of how Wave 2 is likely to play out, we were able to measure support levels that were relevant and HIGH probability for BULLISH reversal activity. So while the "gurus" are calling for shorts at 9750, we know better to look for longs. Elliott Wave provides the starting point, and then we refine it to get a better sense of probabilities and what to expect. The 9750 support is NOT precise. Anyone looking for precision in this game are in the wrong game. Price went below 9200 before exhausting itself BUT what kept us short term bullish was the fact that buyers came in relatively quickly. Just look at the candles in the area. The most recent was a bullish pin bar which completed a double bottom formation. Nothing can be any clearer than that (amusingly I was criticized for not knowing how double bottoms work). Don't Focus On The Reward Alone. We are more aligned with the market through its own proportions. That is where REALISTIC targets come from relative to the time frame you are operating within. For this reason, we chose 10,535 and 11,080. They are well below the next relevant resistance zone that begins around 11,608. Does that mean Bitcoin will stop and reverse lower at these levels? WE HAVE NO IDEA. In fact, since the broader structure is bullish, there is a good chance price can attempt to push back into the 12Ks. We are more concerned with our reward/risk rather than reward alone. If we are wrong, and Bitcoin goes higher, we have still exited with a profit while having no more exposure to risk. How many times have people had an opportunity to take profits while they are available, only to watch the trade give everything back plus more? These are short term swing trades, NOT investments. Our track record is a reflection of this important best practice. The key to giving a trade a chance to exhibit a larger scale break out and run to 20K relates to the probabilities of the wave structure. At the moment, structural evidence suggests we are still in a Wave 2 which remember is corrective. Fake outs and noise are still to be EXPECTED. We will NOT know that Wave 3 is in effect UNTIL AFTER THE FACT. The price structure has to prove itself. Evidence will come in the form of a major resistance level being compromised and right now that level is the 14K swing high. When that break out occurs, probability will be in favor of a run to 20K in a matter of a weeks. Until that happens, we operate with the expectations of a range bound market. In summary, ORIGINAL perspective and context are of prime importance when formulating your own strategy. These elements are best shaped by information that comes directly from the market itself, NOT from any "expert" interpretations or opinions, ESPECIALLY if they are available for FREE. I have a responsibility that prevents me from sharing precise timing details, so instead I try to point to ways that will provide quality information for much more informed decision making. If you are going to criticize, then at least provide clear solutions and examples for the community to LEARN from.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by MarcPMarkets
31
Bitcoin: Double Bottom Off Major Support Points To 12Ks?A high degree of randomness. That is the best description for the Bitcoin price action in recent days. The real question is can you see through it OR are you distracted further by things like small time frames and over reactive chartists continuously making unrealistic claims? Filtering out the noise has everything to do with arriving at YOUR OWN conclusions and that does NOT come from chasing action, especially ideas proliferating around the internet. In this analysis, I will explain the elements that we use to construct our perspective and shape our trade ideas. It begins with LESS IS MORE. We are still maintaining a swing trade long from 10,150. It is against us, but our stop has not been reached. And current price action may be setting up for yet another buy signal. During the retrace from 11K to 9350, we maintained our position and stuck to our plan. We don't chase every trade, we don't short, and we don't over complicate anything. Sure we have missed some moves, but our performance since January has been stable and CONSISTENT and showing a return of around 10%. I must repeat this often because traders are so distracted by frivolous information: LESS IS MORE. Elliott Wave provides a road map, geometric proportions provide locations, and candle sticks provide confirmations. Developing your OWN perspective does NOT require much more. Based on these tools, Bitcoin continues to fluctuate within a broad Wave 2 corrective sequence. Within this sequence, certain geometric proportions are going to carry some weight. The 9750 support region is ONE such area. I use the word region because price can fluctuate wildly around the precise level. And so far it is not only staying near the general area, it is also in the process of developing a broader double bottom formation. Within that, an inside bar is forming which can lead to a new buy signal. The 9750 Region is a proportion to the entire previous impulse structure originating from the 3150 low. To us that means the general area is a HIGH PROBABILITY BULLISH REVERSAL ZONE. That means two things: SHORTS are extremely risky in this area, NO MATTER what your 1 HR chart says, or your 1 HR chart guru. Small time frames are notorious for blinding you from the bigger picture. Secondly, reversal formations followed by a buy signal have GREATER POTENTIAL. Our targets are place strategically within the 11 to 12K resistance area. In summary, the fact that Bitcoin is slow to make any real bearish progress is a sign of strength that is not obvious to the typical trader or investor. Bearish progress means taking out MAJOR supports and closing decisively below them. 9750 was compromised, BUT price is now lingering around 9500 which is NOT significantly lower. A close below 9K is what will increase the chances of a more bearish scenario playing out. If you find yourself confused, most likely its because you are lacking perspective. The process begins on the larger time frames, not smaller. And without a framework to compare against, you will have hard time generating your own ideas. Many think market timing can be learned by trial and error intuitively, or by simply observing others charts. Sure you can take that route, but prepared for at least a decade long learning curve (to achieve basic proficiency). Or you can take the route of professional development and begin learning something like Elliott Wave. It is a starting point, a proven framework, a way to organize your analytical process, NOT a precise solution. Those looking for perfection and precision are looking in the WRONG place. Over the short term, SENTIMENT is the most powerful driver of ALL financial markets and it is usually messy and imperfect. Generating a consistent return is NOT about having the best pattern or signal. It is all about weighing probabilities, WAITING for the market to align and PROTECTING capital when the market doesn't agree.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by MarcPMarkets
46
Bitcoin due for over 50% correction or forming wave 4 triangle?Hello. Have been studying, learning and viewing the charts. Hoping to share this idea as a current view of the market from a student. Feeling that the run from $3000 to $13800 may have found exhaustion. If we break above the 50 ema on the hourly chart around $11600 then I think it is possible that we are finishing a triangle in sub wave 4 before the last impulse. Personally I think we are in sub wave 2 and are going to correct over 50% during a WXY Alternate estimate:
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by KondrackiKarl
1
ETHUSD: Broader Wave Count Still Bullish. 600 Break Is Key.ETHUSD update: When the day to day momentum dries up as is the case with these coins, it is always helpful to zoom out. This is where Elliott Wave offers a lot of value because it shows us where we are on the bigger picture map, and most likely where this market is going. People give Elliott Wave a hard time because they expect precision and that is not what it offers. Instead it provides a sense of location. It helps to answer "where are we?". And what needs to happen in order to make some sort of progress? In the case of ETH, if the current structure bottoms out and establishes a Primary Wave 2, it will be setting up for a Primary Wave 3 of Cycle Wave 3. Basic rules of an impulse dictate that Wave 3 is never the shortest wave. Also Wave 3's and 5's have a tendency to extend. This all means there is a lot of bullish potential baked into these markets over the long term. In order for this broad scenario to begin to confirm, the 598 resistance (.382 of recent bearish structure relative to the 828 high) needs to be taken out. In other words, once the 600 psychological area is cleared, this market will more than likely be in a subwave 1 of the Primary Wave 3. If this market continues lower, it can go as low as the 380s and still be within the rule that says Wave 2 does not go below the start of Wave 1. This is why Wave 2's and Wave 4's are so tricky, especially at their extremes. In summary, as we have been writing on S.C. about how quiet markets call for preparation. Do not force trades, instead define scenarios and be prepared if the market aligns, or if it doesn't. We are not here to predict, only trade probabilities and manage risk. No indicators are required to accomplish this, but a decision making process is. Elliott Wave is an effective analytical framework to use especially for long term perspective. It does not make any promises, but it does provide a road map to compare scenarios against. Take advantage of this quiet time in the market and learn the basics. It is a big first step in developing your own perspective and that is more valuable than any ideas you get from an "expert".
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
13
Upcoming Bump For S&P 500The S&P has been relatively predictable when applying some Elliott Wave Theory principles. While we are in the final stretches before we hit a major correction, a smaller one is on the horizon. The pull back will not be much, but jockeying for position is not bad. The index should find a top around June 14 around 2791.91. This will be followed by a drop over the next 1-3 weeks. My projection has the bottom most likely between 2670 and 2740. I am leaning between 2700 and 2733. After this bottom, I expect major upward movement through early to mid-September. We could test 3100 during this rally. When projecting moves based on wave theory, I try to also identify real world items that could be cause for these moves. June 14 coincides with the end of the US-NK summit, Fed policy decision, and looming trade conflicts between the US, its allies and China. What ever the case may be, I am positioning for this pending drop and ready to ride the final wave 3 high into September.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
The Calm Before the StormHow do you know when to buy? When everyone else is selling! Especially when there are several key signs that may indicate a reversal. First, there is RSI divergence. Even though the price is still dropping, the RSI is starting to uptick, meaning the price Bitcoin is actually starting gain some strength. In addition, a falling wedge is embedded within a falling wedge. The falling wedges show that the price has gone down too quickly and will at least bounce, if not start a new trend. According to my Elliott Wave count, Bitcoin is currently on wave 2. This is how Wikipedia describes wave 2: "Typically, the news is still bad. As prices retest the prior low, bearish sentiment quickly builds, and "the crowd" haughtily reminds all that the bear market is still deeply ensconced. Still, some positive signs appear for those who are looking: volume should be lower during wave two than during wave one, prices usually do not retrace more than 61.8% of the wave one gains, and prices should fall in a three wave pattern." Wave 2 is usually very painful, and many people decide to cut their losses. However, if you can hold patiently, then wave 3 will bring massive gains, typically 1.618 times the price increase of wave 1 or more!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by aoeuaoeu
2
EURUSD: Wave Overlap Signals Broader Count Adjustment?EURUSD update: Recent price action has been more dramatic since the U.S. dollar has gained strength in recent weeks. It is always a good idea to zoom out during such movements to see how the broader technical outlook is being affected. The most notable change on the broader time frame is the fact that the 1.1955 level was compromised. This is important because it alters the long term Elliott Wave count for this market. According to the rules of an impulse structure, the Wave 4 retrace cannot overlap or enter into the area of Wave 1. On this chart, the primary degree Wave 2 has been adjusted since originally I had it labeled as a Wave 4 of the cycle degree Wave V. In terms of overall trend, the direction is still bullish, but the behavior of a Wave 2 can mean this market has more room to go lower in the near term. It can go as low as the origin of Wave 1 which is in the 1.1550s. Keep in mind, fundamentals drive these markets and one interesting observation that I made when comparing to the GBP or AUD, is that those markets were showing a broader bearish wave count all along while this market was the opposite. Pin pointing an exact reason for this kind of technical conflict is complicated and unnecessary for the type of trading that we do at S.C. anyway. As of now, the immediate momentum is bearish, even in the face of this minor bullish retrace. Price can go as high as 1.2050 (.382 of current bearish structure) before it turns and attempts to test the low. In order for us to issue a long signal at S.C., there has to be a number of structural criteria in place which are not present now. In summary, do not be confused or frustrated when an Elliott Wave count is adjusted. Elliott Wave offers a possible technical road map for a financial market. It does not offer precision, only a possibility that market forces either adhere to, or they don't. It minimizes the number of possibilities into a more practical amount which offers less randomness and more predictability in the long run. If fundamental forces ultimately lead this market along a more bearish path, there will be plenty of signs and adjustments along the way to better anticipate trading opportunities either way. Price discounts all known information in the world at any given moment, and that is why a fundamental analyst and a technical analyst can eventually arrive at the same conclusion. This means you don't always have to know why a market is moving the way it is. Price action offers enough information to make informed decisions, especially for short term strategies.
by MarcPMarkets
1
BTC - First peg in ground. What's the next key decision point?There you go folks. We all knew it had to come back at some stage! My chart the last few days called for a potential reversal at 9800 (one of a few key levels). Now we know where it turned (one peg in the ground). The next key thing that I see which needs to play out is whether this wave is Wave 2 of an impulse up or Wave E of a Triangle Wave. Let me explain. There are two possibilities plotted above. The first is shown all in BLUE from the BTC all time high at 19.9k. This shows a running flat ABC correction, which ended at 6425. After that we started an impulse wave up and the euphoria set in as wave 1 reached a peak of 9767. Now we could be in wave 2. The end of this, I cannot tell you ... but one major thing that sticks out at me is the All Time High Trend Line ... will it bounce off the top of that (around 8000ish)? Don't get confused with micro waves, where this current correction may stop at 8800 or 8500, followed by a small correction up, then another drop down. I am talking where does it end on the grand scale. Depending on how fast it drops, it could be around 8000 to 8200. Remember CME futures expire in 2 days ... so it could be fast. The second possibility is shown all in RED from the BTC all time high at 19.9k. This shows a triangle wave, and wave D ended at 9767. This presumes we have started wave E now. If this is the case, wave E would go down to the 6700 to 6800 level and a possible extension past that is very possible. If it does break the lower boundary of the triangle the obvious bounce points would be 6425 and 6000, where we hit the two previous lows. I still like the concept of a double (or triple) bottom confirmation to set off a bull run. Imagine, after the last bull run, and then knowing it isn't going lower than 6k or 6.5k ... the bulls will have some mega power to work with. So, how do we know what's going on. I'd say the biggest factor will be staying above that all time high trend line. Note, I might need to draw a new one to the recent high of 9767, but if we pass that, the one on my chart will definitely come into play, and I'd think this is the lowest it can reach to call it an impulse wave. If we drop below this, I'd say we are clearly in the gravity of the triangle. Obviously, no guarantees ... but again, watch between here and 8000, I'd say. Below that, I'll start preparing for a 6700 bottom, with potential wave E extension all the way to 6k. If we do bounce above 8000, it clearly invalidates the triangle wave theory, and would set off what I hope is a massive wave 3 of the impulse, and I'd expect that to test the 11.7k high. I've drawn some very rough impulse waves in blue and red ... please don't take the levels literally. It's guesses, based on key points. Too hard to predict that far out. I show them more to help people understand the concept of the two theories. One thing is for sure, I am eager to find the bottom of this wave (whether it is E wave or wave 2), as I expect a great run up either way! Remember, only a fool relies on one potential outcome. Do not make investment decisions using this information. For educational purposes only.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MAGICMARK
5
BTCUSD: Don't Pick The Bottom, Let The Market.BTCUSD update: Bearish momentum is driving price toward 6K support as this market pushes through the 6805 reversal zone boundary. Remember there is no way to pick a bottom in a situation like this. The best we can do is estimate where a reversal is likely and let the market prove itself. If the market continues to stay weak, it can go as low as 4559 before reversing. This is where risk management comes into play. I keep getting questions about why I am not shorting this market. The quick answer is I refuse to trade these markets on margin so technically, I can't short these markets. Even if I wanted to, I would only look for opportunities on a day trade basis because the risk of a short squeeze is way too high to hold on at these levels. As I have written before, this situation is no different than when this market was pushing extreme highs. I don't buy highs and I don't short lows. I have been writing about the 8171 to 4983 support zone (.618 of entire bullish structure) for weeks. As long as price stays within this broad zone, I am either looking for signals to add to my position, take shorter term swing trades long or just wait until bullish confirmation returns. I am not going to sell anything at these levels unless I am getting stopped out of a predetermined swing trade. The more conservative thing to do is wait for a reversal to confirm and the scenario that will validate this for me is a close above the 7492 level (.382 of recent bearish swing). This event would indicate there are enough buyers to compromise the immediate bearish trend line. It does not mean this market will go straight up, it simply means momentum is beginning to change. The next step from there would be a higher low formation. In summary, whether this market decides to bottom at the current level, or reverse at 6K, the conservative thing to do is wait it out and let it choose. The only way I would be buying at the current level, is if I had no position at all which is not the case. And that is where risk management comes in. I have enough of a position where if this market keeps going lower, it won't be pleasant, but I will not get shaken out. The only way I will add to this position trade is by waiting for conservative scenarios like closing above a bearish trend line. Overall, as ugly as it looks, 6K is still holding up and can be the bottoming formation that establishes a broad Wave 2 (find the weekly BTC chart on the S.C. site for more on that). Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
18
GBP/USD - Long-term count sees a major expanding flat developingCable is fighting a lot of opposing forces at the moment. The rally in wave 1 stopped just below the 30 year horizontal resistance-line. This line acted as support for Cable since January 1986 and was broken in June 2016, which shifted its position from support to resistance. However, I think the dip below soon will break back above this horizontal pivot point near 1.3700. From an Elliott wave point of the view, my long term count shows that an expanded flat B -wave is developing. We saw wave A rally from the 2009 low at 1.3504 to a high of 1.7191 in July 2014 from where wave B took over. The decline in wave B became almost exactly 138.2% longer than wave A and completed with the test of 1.1950 in October 2016 from where an impulsive rally is expected in wave C. We saw wave 1 rally from the 1.1950 low to a high of 1.3658, just below the horizontal pivot point near 1.3700 and the correction in wave 2 is currently developing, for a decline close to the support cluster between 1.2780 - 1.2822 from where a strong rally is expected in wave 3. The long-term cycle analysis also supports a rally in the coming years. The long-term cycle bottom in November 2016, whereas the price bottomed the month before. The next cycle peak is not seen before November 2020, which supports the expectation of a continuation higher over the coming years. Do you want more like this see: elliottwavesurfer.com
by EWS
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Fear Leads To Price Spike.ETHUSD Update: Price went sub 200 only to push back up to 250 in a matter of hours, along with all the coin markets. Now you know why I suggested considering a small position as an investment. The bearish momentum is not over yet, and now these markets need time to build up some supportive structures again so I am not anticipating new highs any time soon. The initial spike back up is an interesting piece of information. BTC went below 3k only to spike back up to 3500. This type of price action often signals the beginning of a change in momentum, but not enough evidence to start opening swing trade longs. If you read my previous report, I wrote that investing small wasn't a bad idea because there was extreme fear in the market. Sure it got slightly more extreme, but if you believe in the technology (which has not changed), then investing when everyone is hating these coins is the best time. As I wrote, there is no way of pin pointing the bottom. It is a function of understanding your risk and starting small (without leverage). I don't think these markets are out of the clear yet and still have potential to test lows again. Just remember investing is for long term and NOT a swing trade strategy. At this point I am watching for evidence of stability (for a swing trade) and that would be in the form of a higher low at the new minor support at the 220 to 210 area within the broader 230 to 190 area. A failed low here would offer a short term buying opportunity providing that BTC is also stable. Keep in mind since this market has revisited this broader support area which is the .618 of the previous bullish swing, the broader price action will most likely be range bound and I plan to use very conservative targets for any trades that I enter. The new resistance area is the 271 to 291 zone which is related to the .618 of the overall bearish swing. This market needs to clear that in order to show that there is any possibility of retesting the mid to high 300s. So this resistance will serve as a profit target (if the market offers that opportunity). If the market retests this resistance sooner (it is almost there) this area will serve as a level for a possible lower high which can lead to new lows if BTC falls apart again. We just have to wait and see. As far as buying now, the risk is too high. In order to know if a bottom is truly in place, price needs to retest the lows. That is why this price spike, as impressive as it is, is not the time to get long. The retest may lead to new lows, or it may be shallow, there is no way to know until after it unfolds. This is why it is so important to define your scenarios ahead of time so that you have something to measure against instead of being sucked into the herd mentality. In summary, investing and trading are more about psychology than anything else. Price action analysis helps to uncover clues about the crowd mentality so that probabilities and risk can be better determined before taking a position. The purpose of my analysis is to capitalize on short term price fluctuations and I have to repeat this because I realize many new traders do not understand the difference between what I am writing about and buying to hold for the long term. My plan at the moment is to wait for the next retrace and if the market revisits the 220 area, then I evaluate for buy signals for a swing trade. Otherwise I stay flat. There will be plenty of opportunities to get long. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
45
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Lower Low Into Major Support.ETHUSD Update: 230 support area has been reached while all the coin markets sell off. This is actually a great time to start considering accumulating small positions for the long term even while there are no signs of buyers. Momentum is bearish and price has been making lower lows along with the rest of the markets. BTC is clearly leading the way. You can blame it on the news, or whatever other catalyst you like, the important thing is that price is beginning to revisit attractive levels. This is where the people who were way too bullish at 380 get pushed out of there positions, especially the ones who used leverage and have no idea how that works. A few weeks ago it was hard to imagine this market testing the 230s, but as you can see, anything is possible and why I always focus on risk and not reward. The 230 support zone is relative to the .618 of the recent bullish swing and is a wide area with the bottom boundary at 196. At the moment, since there is no sign of stability in any of these markets, it is possible to test that level. And if you zoom out further and look at the entire price history on a weekly chart, you will see that the .618 relative to the overall initial wave is the 162 to 94 area. I am not "predicting" that this is the next support, but it does provide some perspective in the sense that there is room for this market to test lower prices and it would still be normal. The fact that this market broke the 296 level and has not found stability, followed by retesting the current support, signals that this market is more likely to see more of a range bound environment in the near term. This means short term positions should have conservative profit targets, like the low 300s, etc. This market no longer has the structure in place to see 400+ in the near term. The market now needs time to stabilize and consolidate. When markets are full of fear, as long as they maintain their fundamental value (in this case the technology hasn't changed), the opportunity to start accumulating a small position is not unreasonable. This is not a technical play, or a short term trade. It is buy some for the long term. Months and years not days and weeks. Even though there is no technical bottom in place, and there is still room to go lower, as long as you believe in their future, then this situation as a whole is a buying opportunity. The key is starting small. For example if you buy 1 coin at 230, and it goes to 130 in the next week, is that really going to hurt you? Also you have to keep the this process and strategy separate from your shorter term plays. It is more of an investment. Remember, the goal is to build onto the position as the market stabilizes. By starting small, you are limiting your risk and will have the ability to take pain. If you start big, or get too big too fast, or use leverage, you will get yourself into trouble quickly. In order for this market to show any sign of stability, the first thing that I need to see is a break above the 293 level. This is the .382 of the entire bearish swing and an overlap of the .618 of the most recent bearish swing. IF price pushes above that level, that would be the first step to looking for more signs, like a higher low. I must emphasize this level is not a buy trigger. Just a point of reference that will signal the bearish momentum is losing steam. Until that happens, any minor retrace is more likely to unfold as a lower high. In summary, do not get sucked into the hype. As long as these coins maintain their purpose, and they are not rendered obsolete by some new technology, you have to see beyond all the drama and think against the crowd, ESPECIALLY this crowd. I am staying out in terms of swing trades until these markets can stabilize and when they do, price action will provide the right clues. And now is the time to think about a core position, not at 350. You will not get the bottom. Remember: small. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
28
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Room For Lower Prices.ETHUSD update: Bearish momentum continues as price revisits the 260 support level. I have been stopped out of my long, and will now wait until the market can show new signs of stability. At the moment, the next area of support is the 230 zone which is very possible until the momentum changes. I have been writing about the 296, 260 and 230 levels for some time now. Now that 260 has been tested, that is a clear sign the bears are in control which can take prices back to the 230 area as well. The BTCUSD chart is also very similar and still has room to see lower prices. Even though I have been stopped out, I am still bullish and now waiting until stability returns to these markets. If this is a Wave 2 of a larger 3, it can retrace quite a bit before seeing a significant reversal. Keep in mind I do not know how low these markets will go, and I am flexible enough to get back in if I see the right conditions. The kind of price action I am waiting for requires 2 conditions. First a resistance needs to be taken out. These usually come in the form of a lower highs that get broken and as of right now, the 282 and 296 levels (old support, new resistance) will have to be broken. Second, after price breaks the resistance, it will be a matter of waiting for a higher low or failed low and that is the point when I can evaluate risk for a new position. When the market shows signs of continuous bullish momentum, there will be plenty of opportunity to add to the position. So my plan is as follows: I will be watching the 260 area on the 4 hour time frame for a break of a lower high resistance followed by a reversal structure like a higher low or double bottom. If these appear, I will consider putting on another small position (25% of my normal beginning size) so that if I am stopped out again, the loss is proportionally small. If price falls through 260, then I will be watching the 230 area for the same kind of price action. Just to be clear, this process can take days if not longer. Also at the moment, 310 which is the .382 of the overall bearish swing is a key level for defining momentum and as long as price stays below this level, I will expect any bullish swings to be limited in proportion until price action proves otherwise. I have been getting all kinds of PMs asking me about news, and the China situation. Again the news just pushes prices faster. Corrections are normal and required in order to shake out the weak hands and provide new opportunities. In terms of the big picture, any major sell off is a buying opportunity for long term positions in my opinion. In summary, as bearish momentum maintains its hold on all of these markets, the lower support levels like the 230 area now become the focus. The key to speculating in any market successfully is being prepared and defining a scenario ahead of time which is not a prediction. If the market presents the planned scenario then great, you follow the plan and if it doesn't, you stay out. Many people still do not understand that there is a high degree of randomness to price action which is the reason why no one will be right 100% of the time and also why we are always evaluating probabilities. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
39
USD/CAD - Wave 1/ is expected to complete near 1.1925USD/CAD has seen a nice impulsive decline from the May high at 1.3794. This impulsive decline is coming to an end near 1.1925 and marks the end of wave 1/ of 3. Once this wave 1/ decline is complete a corrective rally towards the top of wave iv of one lessor degree at 1.2778 is expected. A rally back to the top of wave four of one lessor degree is a very common corrective target. That doesn't mean that the correction in wave 2/ can't break above here, but more often than not the top of wave four of one lessor degree caps the correction in wave 2/. Stay positive towards the Loonie, but don't fall in love with it just now.
by EWS
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: 260 Support Test?ETHUSD Update: 280 support revisited while bearish momentum continues to push prices lower. Even though this correction still has room to test even lower prices, it is normal and will offer a better opportunity to buy, just not yet. As I wrote about a few reports ago, 320 was a significant break and maybe now you can see why. If you look at a weekly chart, it is basically the low of the previous week's Shooting Star like candle. If you read my reports at that time, I describe the bearishness of the signal, and why I would not even think about buying. The current weekly candle closes today and if it closes the way it looks now which is near the low, especially with no wick, then this signals lower prices are still more likely. At the moment I am watching for a retest of the 260 support to see if price can stabilize. A break below opens the possibility to retest the 230 support zone which is related to the .618 of the recent bullish structure. What adds to this argument further is the lower high structure at 340 (which I talked about in previous reports), the wave count, and the ETHBTC chart which offered plenty of warning ahead of this bearish momentum. In terms of Elliott Wave, I am counting the previous bullish 5 wave structure as a 1 of a larger 3. The current corrective legs are part of the subdegree Wave 2 which implies that a larger Wave 3 is likely to follow once this correction completes. Buying too early in anticipation of subdegree Wave 3 of 3 is extremely risky because Wave 2's can be deep corrections. I would rather wait until the bottom is in place and buy at slightly higher prices because at least I will be able to evaluate my risk more effectively than I can at the moment. Also pay attention to the ETHBTC market because it is testing the .06562 triple bottom area. If that level breaks, that will also add to the bearish momentum that can take this market to the lower supports. In summary, my plan is to let the bearish momentum play out and wait for stability at one of the lower support levels before I do anything else. Right now in order for me to get long, I need to see bullish momentum return which means price needs to show evidence of a reversal ALONG WITH a change in momentum. If price revisits 260 or lower, that doesn't mean I will get that low price. When momentum changes, prices will have to be higher in order to confirm the buyers are back. Keep in mind these evaluations are short term in scope and if you plan to hold for more than a few weeks, or months, then you can start building a position at any low, just make sure to have a very well defined investment plan and don't get too big too fast. The bullish momentum will return and when it does, the market will provide the proof. Until then, I wait. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
26
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Where's The Support?ETHUSD Update: Correction unfolds as anticipated, but at a much larger magnitude which calls for a wave count adjustment. The next support levels for potential reversals are 326, 305 and 296. I have been writing about it for over a week. My caution and concern kept me out of this market even though someone actually insisted I was "losing money" by waiting. I reiterated that the risk was high, and for those who are blindly driven by greed, the market will teach you this lesson just like it taught me over the years. In case you don't know, compared to the market, I am a much more cost effective instructor and nicer too. I am sure many are wondering "What is going on?" and scouring the forums and news to look for any related information. BTC, along with the other coins have retraced significantly within a day. Out of no where the "follow the leader" relationship reasserts itself. The beauty of price action and TA in general is it doesn't matter why, The market discounts everything, and whatever is shaking out the reactionary weak hands is a normal and healthy sign. I don't even need to know why. What I need to do is be prepared to buy back in at the right time and price. So let's talk levels. The supports at 365 and 350 were taken out with some hesitation, but none the less, taken out. Remember when I mention levels, they are reference points to observe further validation (something the people with very limited knowledge fail to understand). Validation means we are WAITING for reversal patterns, not buying blindly and then wondering why the price just fell through. If the reversal never comes, or fails, then we look to the next level. At the moment, the 326 to the 305 support zone (.618 area of recent bullish swing) is the next area I am watching for a bullish reversal that I can measure risk from. IF price falls below this range, 296 is the .382 of the entire bullish structure and needs to hold in order to argue that this market is still bullish and not going into a broader consolidation. In terms of Elliott Wave, this is NOT the beginning Wave 4 which I was expecting and writing about since we had 5 subwaves of the previous Wave 3 complete. The problem is in order to call this current structure a motive wave, the current retrace should not overlap into the area of the proportional Wave 1 and it has (red dotted line). Since the rule has been compromised by the market, I was forced to relabel my count. Instead of Wave 3 of 5, that entire up leg completed 5 of 5 waves. That puts the magnitude of this current retracement into a new light. Another lesson about Elliott Wave is even though I was wrong about the anticipated magnitude of the current wave, I was right about the direction and the methodology has proven to help me avoid getting caught in a losing trade once again. Now that I have perspective on this magnitude, I know that this correction may be part of a very broad Wave 2. And if I get any reversals to go long, I know to expect very conservative targets unless the support level is extreme like 296. Even then, if the market manages to retest that level and I buy, I will unload most of the position into the mid 300s. Since we never took out the high of the broader Wave 1, the current 5 wave structure may be the fist leg of a very broad Wave 3 or a Wave B of the broader Wave 2. Either way, those counts point to a bearish wave which means there is more of a chance we retest lower levels before stability returns. In summary, the crowd is always wrong at tops and bottoms. Whenever you read about outrageous targets and euphoric sentiment, that is usually an anecdotal sign of a top and there has been way too much of that in these markets recently. The swift retracement is larger in magnitude which may lead to significant selling if there is no stabilization at anticipated support levels of 326, 305 and 296 so I am just going to wait it out. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
49
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Up Swing, Corrective Extension.ETHUSD Update: 334 resistance has been taken out, but there is no follow through and the current up swing is not performing as expected, prompting me to consider it an extension of the minor corrective wave. First let's get into what is going on with the levels. The minor resistance zone 324 to 334 (,618 of previous bear swing) has been slowly compromised. The problem is the lack of momentum. When price pushed above 334, it should have attracted more buyers and momentum should follow. Instead price went no where which is not a bullish sign. I am bullish in general, and I am still waiting for the pull back that I wrote about in previous reports. My plan is very simple: IF price retraces to the 306 to 295 support area (.618 of current bullish swing), and it can show a reversal pattern on a smaller time frame, then I will get back in. Keep in mind that I am flexible, and willing to get in sooner IF I see a compelling formation, but there is nothing to write about. If price just goes without me, I don't mind, it won't be the first time. I have lost more money because of the fear of missing out, than by missing out. Waiting is a more profitable strategy, but not a fun one. In terms of wave count, this market should be in the beginning of the Wave 3 of 5 again, BUT this leg is not acting like a Wave 3 at all. The 334 break should have been awe inspiring and instead was lackluster to put it nicely. Plus Wave 3's are never the shortest wave, and right now when I compare it to the subdegree Wave 1 structure, it is shorter. This behavior leads me to believe the current up swing is nothing more than part of the subdegree Wave 2 correction. Which means there is still potential for a retrace to the support zone that I am interested in. In summary, this market seems to go in spurts, and again is waiting its turn for the order flow. Price structure continues to be bullish, but the most recent leg up is more likely part of the corrective wave that this market has been in for a few days now. Keep in mind, a rally can appear out of nowhere, and I am okay with missing the move. I prefer to wait for a retrace into the 306 area and see if the market can meet my criteria in order for me to get back in. If I miss it, there will be more opportunities. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
46
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Corrective Wave Appearance.ETHUSD Update: Larger than expected retrace alters wave count and offers good lessons about price action and trade management. Outlook is still bullish as long as supports are maintained. Wow, what a wild move. This is why I always remind everyone "anything can happen". In terms of wave counts, this move changes the structure because Wave 4's do not overlap the area of Wave 1's. If there is overlap then it is not a Wave 4, which has prompted me to relabel the waves. The large move up is relabeled as subdegree Wave 1 and the current retrace is subdegree wave 2 of the larger 5. This is the subjectivity and imperfection of Elliott Wave, but then again nothing is perfect, especially in the markets. As price action traders we understand this and simply ADJUST. The market is always right, we are just trying our best to listen. There is no room for ego in this game. Even though my original wave count (current move to 350 as subdegree Wave 3) was negated by the current retrace, it still manged to get me into a very good trade. I sold half of my position at 345 as reported yesterday and I was stopped out for the other half at 306 for a 12 point profit. I was willing give back some profit for the chance to participate in the broader move. Like one of my former mentors used to say, "Sometimes you get the elevator, and sometimes you get the shaft." The question now is where to from here? My adjusted wave count places this market in a subdegree Wave 2. Which is good and bad. It's good because it can be setting up for another subdegree Wave 3 which can take us to the 380 resistance that I have been writing about. It's bad because corrective waves usually unfold in 3's and at the moment there is only one leg in place. Which means the minor resistance in the 324 to 334 area is likely to lead to range bound price action with support at the 290 to 295 area. The 279 and 263 supports are the main structures that keep this entire formation bullish. As long as they hold, I will be looking for ways to get long. The 334 and 350 resistances need to be taken out in order to signal the new subdegree Wave 3 is in play and again it is all a matter of time or catalyst. In order for me to buy back into this market, I need to see some form of reversal structure like a higher low or double bottom on this time frame. And it needs to occur within the 290 to 334 range. In summary, we must always maintain flexibility and an open mind. Financial markets possess an element of randomness and this is why nothing is ever 100%. We listen, and as the market provides new information, we adjust. Elliott Wave may be imperfect, BUT it kept me on the right side of the market and that is really all that matters. Current structure puts this market back into a subdegree Wave 2, which means there is still potential to reach the 380 resistance area in the next leg up, BUT two more corrective legs are likely to unfold first. Trading effectively is not about being "right" it's about managing risk in the face of constant uncertainty. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
23
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: 279 Retest And Buying.ETHUSD Update: This market has retested the 279 support yet again and is attempting to hold. I wrote about this in my previous report. As long as 279 and 263 hold, this market is just waiting its turn for the spotlight. At the moment, BCH has wowed the media and markets with its completely unexpected push to over 900 in a matter of days. Impressive, and as one trader suggested, is taking attention (and orderflow) away from the rest of the coins. Perhaps investors are selling some ETH to get in on the BCH train. The retrace that we are experiencing in this market is nothing unusual from a technical perspective. The support levels 263 and 279 keep this bullish structure intact. IF 263 is broken, then that would be more cause for concern and caution. If anything a retrace to these lows offers a buying opportunity so I am adding to my position. I updated my previous report with my add at 291.68, stop at 276 and target 340. My reason for the add is the magnitude of the bounce off the 279 low. It is sharp and the candle on the 4 hour qualifies as a bullish engulfing candle which is a reversal pattern within my trading plan. I only added 25% to my current position and it basically has the same RR as the original position. Reporting an actual trade is very tough for me to do in a timely manner so I am doing the best I can to get this information out and have a clear explanation. A break of 292 minor resistance (.382 of recent bear swing) will signal a continuation upward and another attempt at the 306 to 315 area. 315 needs to be cleared in order to prove that this market is on its way to the 350 resistance. In summary, the current retrace is still within bullish boundaries. As long as 279 and 263 supports are maintained, it can be argued that this market still has the structure in place to retest the 315 resistance at least. The push off of 279 has prompted me to add to my position with the same risk/reward. Watch for the 292 break to open the door to a retest of the minor highs, which if broken this time, can lead this market toward the 350 resistance target. All this market needs is a catalyst which can come out of nowhere and cannot be anticipated by a chart. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSDLong
by MarcPMarkets
15