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Wave_analysis

Looking For Next Market Top AgainLooking for next top Submillennium 1 Grand Supercycle 5 - green Supercycle 1 Cycle 5 - orange Primary 5 - blue Intermediate 5 - pink Minor 5 - yellow Minute 5 - green I will try to find the next top off simply modified wave theory. First we need to set the baseline. I prefer the chart SPX500USD as it encompasses 23 hour trading during the week and can capture movement not always distinguishable in the SP:SPX chart. My first step is always to identify the location of wave 3 (if it exists). I do this by using my Elliott Wave 3 Finder v2 in conjunction with my RSI triple confirm indicator and a simple RSI 9. My wave 3 indicator will have a painted background at potential wave 3 locations, blue background for bearish reversals and pink for bullish reversals. My triple confirm RSI should signal in conjunction with the actual wave 3 point, red for bearish reversals and green for bullish reversals. My wave 3 indicator tends to spot wave 3 of 3 by displaying a gap between painted backgrounds. These indicators signal upon market close and are not considered finalized signals until the next bar begins. My baseline is in the 2 month chart. I have worked through the historical SPX chart and believe we are in the fifth and final wave (Grand Supercycle 5) of a larger structure (Sub Millennium 1) that began in the 1800s. This specific wave 5 began at the market bottom in 2009, and we are only in the first (Supercycle 1) of five waves to the upside. I do not expect a catastrophic market top for many decades to come. This chart picks up around 2004 to the current time. We are likely in Cycle wave 5 which began at the market low in October 2022. I have determined Cycle wave 3 to have ended at the peak at the beginning of 2022 based on the wave 3 indicator and RSI agreeing on a reversal point. In the moment, I would not have agreed the market topped in January 2022 as the indicators were still signaling. It is only on the preceding bar not producing a signal that an event is confirmed. Next I will determine common wave extensions off (Fibonacci levels) of Cycle wave 3's movement which began at the low in January 2016 at 1,806.25 and ended at 4,820.20 in January 2022. Wave 3 moved 3,013.95 points. Cycle wave 5 could move 123.6% to 138.2% of Wave 3's movement. These means a potential endpoint is between 5,531.49-5,971.53. This will be the orange outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above. Next I will try to identify a current Primary wave 3 inside of Cycle wave 5. My indicators point to Primary wave 3 ending around the mid-July 2024 on the 2-day chart based on the gap in the wave 3 indicators. There is not an RSI 3 signal in the 2-day chart for Primary wave 3, but there was one for Minor wave 3 in Intermediate wave 3 in Primary wave 3 around February 12, 2024. We can attempt to confirm this by seeing where the end of Intermediate wave 5's movement extended too. If Intermediate wave 3 began January 5, 2024 and ended March 29, 2024, Intermediate wave 5 topped close to 161.8% of Intermediate wave 3's movement as seen below: Based on this assumption, Primary wave 3 was likely over by mid-July 2024. The next Fibonacci wave extension levels for Cycle wave 5 could see this wave end between 108-123.6% of Primary wave 3's movement. This places a potential top between 5,806.48-6,052.34. This will be the light blue outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above. We will next move inside of Primary wave 5 which possibly began at the low from the beginning of August 2024. In looking for Intermediate wave 3 inside of Primary wave 5, the indicators point to Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave 3 occurring on September 19, 2024 and the Minute wave 3 inside of Minor wave 3 occurring on September 13. If we find the Intermediate wave 5 extension from this Intermediate wave 3, a potential top sits between 5,816.26-5,936.51. This will be the pink outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above. Next we try to identify where we are in Intermediate wave 5. The 2-hour chart here indicates a possible Minor wave 3 occurring on October 9, 2024. A possible Minor wave 5 extension from here is a top between 5,825.38-5,868.50. This will be the yellow outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above. We can attempt to go a final level deeper inside of Minor wave 5. We currently have Minute wave 3 indications based on the high from earlier today at 5826.90. If this is the end of Minute wave 3, Minute 5 could top between 5,834.16-5,857.61. This will be the yellow outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above. Based on a this wave set being over a small timeframe, this top could happen before next Tuesday. This is zone of interest for a near-term top. This is purely theoretical, but Israel will likely strike at Iran soon. Iran has claimed they would respond quickly, but the prior instances saw long delays in the response. If Iran has an immediate response, a full on conflict would be underway in the Middle East. Not all wars are bad, but this one would likely impact oil and depending on the duration likely impact economies around the world. A contained conflict between a few nations likely would not spiral into a larger conflict, however, strong alliances on other side could turn this into a much greater event, closer to a world war situation. As drastic as this is, it could explain a potential near-term top. If conflict does not break out, we will likely see a short-term market top before continued movement higher and higher. Time will tell. Enjoy!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by StockSignaler
4
LINKUSDT - Elliott Wave Analysis - BullishBINANCE:LINKUSDT LINKUSDT - Elliott Wave Analysis - Bullish Article: The price chart analysis of ChainLink (LINK) using the Elliott Wave Theory, with lines drawn by this indicator, highlights it as one of the cryptocurrencies to watch. The long-term (1-week) price chart of ChainLink (LINK) has shown a bullish movement since 2020, breaking through several key resistance levels and continuing to climb steadily. The structure created by the indicator's automatic line drawing clearly shows that we are potentially in wave 3 of a bullish trend while concurrently in wave C of a bearish correction. Therefore, we expect prices to reach levels at $86, $105, and $137 respectively. However, other factors should be considered when forecasting future price directions such as fundamental asset factors, technical factors, and economic conditions. The fundamentals for LINK are strong due to its popularity as a DeFi project with increasing real-world usage. Technical indicators support an upward trend. Factors supporting the upward trend for ChainLink include: Growth in real-world usage of ChainLink. Partnerships with new allies. Launching new products and services. Risks against the upward trend for ChainLink include: Global economic recession. Volatility in cryptocurrency markets. Competition from emerging technologies. Conclusion In summary, the long-term (1-week) ChainLink price chart indicates a robust upward trend, with expectations of breaking through key resistance levels, specifically at $53. Currently, the price is in an accumulation phase, poised for a soon-to-come upward adjustment. Additionally, it is noteworthy that the price has been consistently adjusting upward on a weekly basis.
Long
by hapharmonic
13
Final Final Leg Down For NowHere is the current forecast assuming Minor wave 4 completed at today’s high. The original bottom of Intermediate wave 5 based on all data acquired at the end of Intermediate wave 4 is on the right. The short, long blue box was the original forecasted low based on my derivative modeling. The current forecasted levels based on possible Minor wave 5 data points are on the left. There is overlap with the original areas. The low can happen fast and likely before October 26th. The low will likely remain between 4147 and 4180. It can always go lower. Original call was a low around 4175. It is possible we go below this by 10-15 points. Once this bottom is in, it is finally rally time (short-lived but at least a month of 250+ points. METHODOLOGY: I operate a modified wave theory composed of Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. The listed percentages are based on previous movement extensions and retracement quartiles of the data. There is too much data to list all points but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data. Derivative models take the annotated waves from the above methodology and compare specific ratioed-relationships to predict future movement based off of smallest standard deviations in processed models. ***Currently in beta testing to determine efficacy***
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
New Program Relooks at Market TopWith our newest program online, we will relook at the market top from an hourly data viewpoint based on historical wave relationships. The first set will determine the expected behavior of Intermediate wave 5, and then Primary wave C will be examined. Current belief is the market is in Sub-Millennial wave 1, Grand Supercycle wave 5, Supercycle wave 2, Cycle wave B, Primary wave C, Intermediate wave 5. The shorthand reference for this is the alphanumeric of the waves combined—152BC5. INTERMEDIATE WAVE 5 Intermediate wave 1 was 175 hours and a gain of 360.62 points from the market’s most recent low in mid-March 2023. Intermediate wave 2 then lost 121.20 points in 86 trading hours before Intermediate wave 3 gained 400.19 points in 208 hours. Finally, Intermediate wave 4 lost 120.39 points in 41 trading hours setting up Intermediate wave 5 to complete the cycle with upward movement toward, but likely short of, the all-time market high of 4818 from January 2022. Based on historical wave data for similar waves ending in 52BC5, Intermediate wave 5 is broken up into fourths, or quartiles of possible movement. The first quartile of data suggest wave 5 could extend beyond the movement of Intermediate wave 3’s top (end point) by 106.33% while the data’s median suggests 133.605% and the third quartile is at 152.82%. The maximum recorded extension thus far was 153%. This would indicate the market will top below 4660. Still based on the same dataset, the most amount of models indicate the end of Intermediate wave 5 could occur within 86 trading hours. Second most agreement is a tie among many lengths, but the models are not strong enough. These levels are 96, 104, 123, or 624 hours. As of Friday’s close on July 21, 2023, Intermediate wave 5 is 123 hours long IF it is still ongoing. The current high was on July 19 at 105 trading hours. Based on waves ending in 2BC5, the quartile extension levels are 110.65%, 129.39%, & 152.82% with the maximum extension at 192.58% (nearly double the length of wave 3’s movement). The models for duration agree the strongest on a length of 41 trading hours. Second most agreement is 86 while third is a tie at 52, 175, and 208. Fourth agreement is 26 hours and fifth is 88 hours. Most of these lengths have already been surpassed with the exception of 175 and 208. Based on waves ending in BC5, the quartile extension levels are 113.62%, 127.15%, & 147.45%. Strongest model forecast for length remains at 41 hours, with second most agreement at 208 hours, third at 52 hours, fourth at 246 hours, and fifth at 86 hours. This analysis could also indicate the market topped on July 19, 2023 as it was near two historical reversal levels AND 105 trading hours long which was next to a modelled point. If the top is not in, it could occur on or before August 2 PRIMARY WAVE C Primary wave A began when the market bottomed in mid-October 2022 and gained 608.93 points in 235 trading hours. Primary wave B then lost 291.65 points by the time it bottomed 476 trading hours later. Based on waves ending in 152BC, the quartile extension for Primary wave C are 126.53%, 152.48%, & 161.79% with the maximum at 181.32% (these lines are the right-most scaled on the above chart). The models only agree on one length which is 476 hours, which is the same as Primary wave B which means it may not occur in this instance. Some B waves are a 1:1 length of the following C waves, however, that is generally observed on a much smaller scale which is not the case here. I will wait for the next broader dataset to determine possible lengths. So far all quartiles have been surpassed and the prior maximum observed is at 4595.69. The current market high is at 615 hours, and the market close at trading hour 633 on Friday. Based on waves ending in 52BC, the quartile extension levels are 125.13%, 149.765%, & 166.55%. The models once again agree the most at 476 hours, with second most agreement scattered at 235, 238, & 952 hours. Although not strongly endorsed, the next duration that is projected and is yet to occur is 705 trading hours which is roughly August 7, 2023. CONCLUSION There is a chance the market top has already occurred on July 19, 2023. If it has not occurred, it could occur as early as this coming week. The Federal Reserve has another rate decision on Wednesday and has a history of making for a volatile aftermath. Most of the data in this analysis is pointing to a market top below 4638.36 and possibly below 4596. The duration models do not help as much on an hourly scale. If the values are correct, the market may not top for another whole week. Regardless of the results, this new program should help determine many of the steps down in the pending bear market finale likely rolling through the next trading year.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
Oil Prices Set to Soar: Will $100 per Barrel be the New Normal?According to the Elliott wave principle, the XTIUSD 4-hour chart appears to have completed a primary degree impulsive wave 1 followed by corrective wave 2. The current price action suggests that wave 3 of an ascending impulse is now underway. It is anticipated that XTIUSD will face resistance around the 73.88-72.84 range, and as a result, is projected to climb higher over the upcoming period in 5 internal impulses, potentially reaching above $95/barrel. Furthermore, a bullish batman harmonic pattern on the M15 further confirms this analysis. It is worth noting that if this forecast is accurate, it may trigger a rise in the dollar index as the analysis unfolds. My medium term target will be $90/barrel , while my ultimate target will be $100/barrel of oil.
FXOPEN:XTIUSDLong
by Samuel124
GOLD: PERHAPS WE ARE AT THE END OF THE CORRECTIONOver the past week, the Gold market has undergone a bullish rally, as evidenced by its rise from 1806.85 to 1857.49. However, a notable correction occurred in the last two days, resulting in a decline of over 250 pips. At present, indications suggest that this correction has likely reached its terminus, with a potentially favorable zone emerging for buyers to accumulate additional contracts. Specifically, the zone encompassing 1831.44 to 1825.20 presents an opportune moment for buyers to enter the market. Traders may watch this zone closely in the coming days. Conversely, a contrary stance (sell position) might be considered if this zone is broken to the downside with momentum.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by Samuel124
US30 BearishThe technical analysis of US30 reveals that the index is currently encountering resistance at the level of 34195. The 200EMA initially acted as support for the price confirmed by a quick rejection to the upside. Furthermore, the TDI also displays an overbought position, further strengthening the bearish sentiment in the market. A confirmation of this rejection at the resistance zone can be seen through the presence of either divergence or a sharkfin pattern on the TDI. Based on this analysis, it is expected that the US30 will experience a decline from its current resistance zone at 34195 to the short-term target of 34000 and the medium-term target of 33900.
BLACKBULL:US30Short
by Samuel124
1
The Bull Case Inside the Overall Bear MarketI had the markets in wave 1532C, but a few things happened late or not at all. In fact, this whole downturn in January was 2 months sooner than I had initially forecasting. Timing the market is hard, and I not perfect. Learning from my mistakes and asking what could have happened or where did I go wrong is what makes me better at all of this. I have missed three calls so far so I began to ask why? I initially called wave A down prematurely. Instead of calling out the bottom of A, I found what I then thought was the bottom of wave 3 inside of A. Then, I misidentified the end of B, but it happens. I was wrong on A, but for good reason. A would have been a 5 wave pattern down, followed by a 3-wave pattern upward for wave B. I found the 5 waves and 3 waves so I asked what else could this be? The economy is not getting better as long as fuel prices rise. These prices will continue to elevate the price of everything until it is addressed. I had us coming out of this mess a week ago, but the economy and Fed never made sense to me. I assumed it would be a quick end to the war as well. I have been wrong, but why? I identified 5 waves down but that is because we were in wave 1 of wave A. What the 3 waves for my wave B call was actually the 3 waves of a wave 2 inside of wave A. Everything stemmed from my identification of the COVID crash in March 2020. I marked that anomaly as the wrong wave structure but never felt right about it. I have now re-marked the waves in the chart above and will eventually have all of the statistics to test my newest theory. I had us about to wrap up Cycle wave 2 inside of Supercycle wave 3. I no longer believe we are that far along. I still have us in Sub-Millennial wave 1 (began June 1877) and Grand Supercycle wave 5 which began March 2009. However, I only have the market in Supercycle wave 2 and Cycle wave A—-both beginning in January this year. I further have us in Primary wave 4 which should end soon and we will likely continue our downward movement below the prior low of 3810.32 before then end of June. This would finally end Cycle wave A. Next step is a 3-wave structure upward over the next 1-2 months which could top between 4400-4900. I will have more details soon. We will then find the new bottom in a 5-wave downward pattern which will complete Cycle wave C and Supercycle wave 2. This would likely occur 3-5 months after it begins with a low between 3000-3300. This structure fits much more inline with the economic outlook and fuel prices. The new Congress sits in January in the US as well. As long as Congress and the White House are controlled by differing parties, lopsided legislation capable of harming half the country should not pass. Fuel prices will only get better with unilateral action from the White House, some sort of bi-partisanship, or a majority strong enough to override a veto (this longshot is doubtful, but so were the Bengals to make it to the Super Bowl). If this structure is correct, the first thing to occur will be a break to the downside within the next 3-5 trading days at the latest. If this structure is wrong, we will move above 4800 before we go below 4000 and I will once again ask why en route to the next theory.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
Possible Wild Week Before More Months of DeclineThis chart depicts potential movement over the next 2 weeks based on my application of Elliott Wave Theory and historical data for the S&P 500. I currently have the index in in Sub-Millennial wave 1 (began June 1877), Grand SuperCycle wave 5 (began March 6, 2009), SuperCycle wave 3 (began March 23, 2020), Cycle wave 2 (began January 4, 2022), Primary wave B (began February 24, 2022), Intermediate wave C (began March 8, 2022). I have two sets of targets based on my analysis of Primary wave B and its historical relationships as well as Intermediate C in Primary B and its historical relationships. Primary B (1532B) Primary B began when Primary wave A ended on February 24, 2022 at 4114.65. Primary A began on January 4, 2022 when the market topped at 4818.62. Primary A lasted 35 trading days and dropped 703.97 points from top to bottom which is a rise over run (R/R) (move / days) of -20.113. My models forecast Primary B to last 4, 13, 18, 19, or 28 days based on similar 32B wave data. The most agreement is on 18 days, with secondary agreement on 13, 19, and 28. For context, day 13 is March 15, 18 is March 22, 19 is March 29, and 28 is April 5. My models further forecast the end of this wave occurring between 4498.62 and 4567.92. There are two pockets of agreement for the possible end. The first is 4498.62, 4498.63, and 4498.67. The second is slightly larger with 4555.33, 4555.36, 4559.33). Additional data comes from the historical R/R data observed in a Primary B. I have applied R/R data to the potential length outcomes from the beginning of the prior paragraph. If Primary B lasts 18 days, the application of a historical R/R of 23.404 gives us a target price of 4535.92. Staying with 18 days there is another R/R pointing to 4567.92. At 19 days, R/R data of 23.404 places a target area of 4559.33. Lastly, a 28 length with historical R/R of 14.496 points to 4520.53. Another analyzed dataset comes from the relationship of the move between Primary A and Primary B (simple division of A/B). The historical ratios applied to A’s move of 703.97 provides the following targets: 4498.63, 4555.35, 4613.67, 4654.20, and 4769.09. Intermediate C (1532BC) Intermediate C is believed to have begun on March 8, 2022 when Intermediate B concluded its 3 wave pattern downward. Intermediate wave C should be comprised of 5 Minor waves ultimately leading upward. Identifying waves current waves requires skill and is not always perfect. I believe we finished Minor wave 1 (up) on March 9 at 3:33 pm EDT. As of now, I have Minor 2 finishing at the Friday closing low of 4200.49 at 3:59 pm EDT. I do not like to identify the end of a wave in the present as it almost always is wrong. If we gap up on Monday, this may confirm Minor 2 has ended. Which would put the market in wave 3 which should easily surpass the Minor 1 top of 4299.40 within the next 2-3 days. My models forecast Intermediate C to last 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12, 14, or 17 trading days. The strongest agreement is 6 days (8 data points) followed by 5 days (7). Day 5 is March 15 and day 6 is March 16 which also align with the dates from the forecasts based on Primary B. The price targets range wider than before with 4422.51-4592.93. This range contain 3 pockets of interest with the strongest agreement in the 4572-4587 range. Pocket 2 is 4497-4512 and 3 is 4422-4437. All prices of interest are: Pocket 3 = 4422.51, 4423.777, 4424.333, 4427.557, 4429.953, 4430.19, 4434.144 Additional = 4439.81-4443.654-4447.915-4448.556-4454.057-4459.259-4463.06-4466.083-4467.93-4469.093-4475.106-4484.17-4486.8 Pocket 2 = 4497.004, 4498.72, 4503.082, 4504.61, 4506.658, 4507.996, 4509.491, 4510.29 Additional = 4512.412-4515.101-4519.56-4520.647-4528.104-4529.941-4533.79-4533.86-4548.6-4550.257-4554.416-4556.682-4559.29-4569.676-4571.012 Pocket 1 = 4574.69, 4575.31, 4575.67, 4578.87, 4580.78, 4581.663, 4584.838 Additional = 4585.802-4586.547-4586.601-4589.385-4591.954-4592.937 Another analytic model determines the relationship between wave C’s movement and the total movement of the larger wave, in this case the larger wave is Primary B. Movement for waves ending in 2BC tend to makeup between 59-95% of the overall macro wave’s movement. Similar to waves ending in 2BC are wave ending in 4BC or BBC. 4BC waves similarly make up 36-99%, while BBC can makeup 30-95%. Intermediate C’s movement would have to make up 86% or greater then the entire movement for Primary B in order for any of the current targets above to be achieved. The reason for this is that Intermediate B nearly retraced 100% of all the gains achieved by Intermediate wave A (actual retracement was 86.303%). Use the table below considering if Intermediate C’s movement makes up x% of Primary B’s movement, this coincides with the listed price targets: 86% = 4422.51-4430.19 87% = 4439.81-4454.057 88% = 4463.06-4486.80 89% = 4497.00-4520.647 90% = 4533.79-4559.29 90.49% (a prior value) = 4554.416-4584.838 91% = 4578.87-4611.34 These are the reasons for my forecast squares in the chart above. We shall see what actually takes place. Regardless, we could be looking at quick and large movement up in the very near-term. Primary C is next which could take the market down well below 3931.00 with a bottom between May 11 and June 2. I will provide more context as we complete more waves.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1