₿ BTC: Delay Tactics in Wave B Bitcoin dropped hard yesterday, throwing a wrench into the expected climb toward the top of green wave B. This bounce was supposed to stretch into the upper blue Target Zone between $117,553 and $130,891, which we flagged as a smart area to take partial profits or layer in short hedges. That zone still stands—BTC just isn’t ready to hit it yet. The current pullback suggests we’ll see more sideways-to-lower price action before green wave B wraps up. Once it does, green wave C should drag Bitcoin into the lower blue Target Zone between $62,395 and $51,323. That’s where we’re looking for orange wave a to complete. After that, a countertrend rally in wave b could pop up—before wave c wraps the entire corrective cycle and finishes blue wave (ii). We’re also watching an alt.(i) breakout scenario (30% probability). In that case, BTC would blow through the $130,891 level early, bypassing the expected dip and reaching new highs faster than projected.
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Waveanalyses
Alibaba: Intermediate Correction in ProgressAs Alibaba has remained below resistance at $121.28, we’ve ultimately chosen to consider the high of orange wave x as established. Thus, we currently place the stock in bearish wave y, which should conclude the corrective structure of the larger blue wave (ii). From that point, BABA should reverse, climb back above the $121.28 resistance, and move to significantly higher levels—initially completing blue wave (iii), and eventually the larger turquoise wave 3. However, there’s still a 34% chance that our bearish alternate scenario will play out. In that case, the stock would fall between the two support levels at $80.05 and $58.01, where the low of turquoise wave alt.2 would form.
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Coca-Cola: IndecisiveCoca-Cola continues to trade sideways, still failing to confirm either of our scenarios definitively. The primary scenario envisions that wave III in beige will post another high within the beige Target Zone ($76.58–$81.51), which offers a potential setup for short positions. Following that, wave IV in beige should begin a substantial correction. However, if the stock fails to overcome resistance at $74.38, it could indicate that the top of wave alt.III in beige is already in. A decline below the $66.05 support level would activate the alternative scenario (35% probability), implying a drop below $60.62.
BTC: Facing Resistance?Bitcoin recently encountered renewed selling pressure, stalling the anticipated continuation of green wave B. Under the primary scenario, this corrective upward movement should still extend into the upper blue Target Zone between $117,553 and $130,891, where the price is expected to reverse and initiate green wave C. That move should complete with a low in the lower blue Target Zone between $62,395 and $51,323, thereby finalizing orange wave a. Following a corrective advance in wave b, the larger wave (ii) should reach its conclusion. There remains a 30% probability for the alternative scenario, in which BTC pushes above the upper blue Target Zone, establishing a new high in blue wave alt.(i)— which would delay the expected pullback.
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BTC: Maintaining Strength Bitcoin continues to hover around the $105,000 level. In line with the primary scenario, we expect the advance in green wave B to extend toward the upper blue Target Zone between $117,553 and $130,891. This zone can be used to lock in partial gains or establish hedges via short positions. From there, a corrective wave C is likely to follow, driving prices lower into the blue Target Zone between $62,395 and $51,323 — marking the end of the larger wave a. A corrective bounce should unfold next, ahead of the final selloff completing blue wave (ii). The alternative scenario, with a 30% probability, envisions a breakout above $130,891 and the establishment of a new high as part of blue wave alt.(i).
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S&P500: Approaching the 88.70% RetracementThe S&P 500 continued its climb, nearing the 88.70% Fibonacci retracement level. The top of magenta wave (B) has not yet been confirmed, so under the primary scenario, we continue to expect further upside into the magenta Target Zone between 5,880 and 6,166. Once that zone is reached, wave (C) is expected to take over and drive the index into the next Target Zone — the green zone between 4,988 and 4,763. Short positions initiated within the upper zone remain viable and can be protected with a stop 1% above the top of the range. The alternative scenario — assigned a 40% probability — assumes the rally will continue directly into wave alt.(III) in blue, with a breakout above the 6,675 resistance. Over the long term, we continue to expect one final impulsive leg higher in blue wave (III) once the broader green wave correction is complete. This should take the S&P 500 well above the 6,166 mark.
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AMD: Short-term Upward PotentialAMD has continued to face downward pressure, preventing further progress in green wave . While this wave still has room to rise, its top should form below resistance at $141.16. Once wave completes, wave should follow—finishing the larger green impulse to the downside and completing the corrective structure of blue wave (II). This move is expected to conclude in our blue Long Target Zone between $62.82 and $35.19. That said, we continue to monitor a 30% alternative scenario: it suggests that wave alt.(II) has already bottomed at $76.12. In that case, AMD wouldn’t visit the blue zone but instead break out directly above the resistances at $141.16 and $174.98—marking the beginning of wave alt.(III).
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Procter&Gamble: Short-Term Strength Still Fits the PlanPG has extended its rally, pushing turquoise wave C higher. While some selling pressure is starting to show, we’re sticking with our primary view: the stock should still break above $180.43 to complete beige wave b before turning lower. However, in our 37% likely alternative scenario, beige wave alt.b would have already topped, and the stock would next drop below $148.87.
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AVAX: Low in Sight?AVAX continued its expected decline into the magenta Target Zone between $24.42 and $13.31, before reversing course over the weekend with a modest bounce. While it's possible that this marked the low of the wave ii correction, we're not ruling out the potential for another dip within the zone. For now, the setup remains open-ended. Once orange wave ii has been confirmed as complete, we expect a strong rally to follow in wave iii, likely driving the price beyond resistance at $49.95.
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BTC: Still in the Grip of Wave BBitcoin is holding steady near the same levels seen at the time of yesterday’s update — and so is the structure. According to our primary scenario, we expect the current corrective wave B to complete soon within the blue Target Zone between $117,553 and $130,891. Once that happens, a wave C selloff should follow, likely targeting the lower blue Target Zone between $62,395 and $51,323. That said, our alternative scenario (30% probability) remains intact. In that case, the high of blue wave (i) has yet to form — a breakout above $130,891 would confirm that view and open the door to further upside before a correction resumes.
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BTC: Slowing DownBitcoin managed to stabilize over the weekend after its recent slide, nudging slightly higher from local lows. We continue to expect the current rebound—interpreted as wave B—to stretch into the blue Target Zone between $117,553 and $130,891. Once that move tops out, the next leg lower should follow, with wave C driving the price into the lower blue zone between $62,395 and $51,323. That would likely complete wave a in orange and pave the way for a temporary recovery before wave b rolls over into the final drop of wave (ii). The alternative scenario, which we’re still assigning a 30% probability, assumes Bitcoin is already in wave alt.(i) in blue—a more bullish path that would extend the rally well beyond $130,891 without another major correction first.
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Mastercard: Approaching the Top of Wave BMastercard has rebounded after a brief cooling period, and we now expect turquoise wave B to complete just below resistance at $620. Once that top is in, wave C should drive a meaningful retracement, ending with the low of magenta wave (4). Alternatively, if turquoise wave alt.(4) has already bottomed — which we estimate as a 40% probability — then a direct breakout above $620 would suggest a shift toward a much more aggressive advance. That path would take the stock straight into magenta wave (5), completing blue wave (I) with a strong rally.
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Uber: Topped out Already?Uber sold off sharply after topping out at $94.10 – thus, our short-term alternative scenario needs to be considered. In this view (35% probability), turquoise wave alt.3 has already concluded, and the stock is headed toward a pullback in wave alt.4 . That retracement would likely bottom in the turquoise Target Zone between $65.94 and $57.24 — a potential setup for long entries. The primary scenario remains more bullish: we expect a renewed push above $94.10 to complete the regular turquoise wave 3.
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Tesla: Completed!TSLA has moved somewhat closer to the resistance at $373.04 since our last update, but these gains have now been tempered. We now consider the turquoise wave 4 as finished and anticipate imminent sell-offs during wave 5. These should eventually complete the magenta wave (3) of a larger downward impulse below the support at $215.01. However, due to recent upward momentum, we have increased the relevance of our alternative scenario. We now consider it 38% likely that the stock has already completed the large correction of the blue wave alt.(II) with the last significant low and will continue to rise directly during wave alt.(III). In this case, the price would next not only rise above the nearby resistance at $373.04 but also overcome the higher levels at $405.54 and $488.50.
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PepsiCo: In the Target ZonePepsiCo is currently trading in the middle of our active Long Target Zone (coordinates: $133.53 – $125.10). Although all technical requirements for the correction of wave a in beige have already been met here, we still see some remaining downward potential for the subordinate wave 5 in turquoise within our Target Zone. There's even a 36% chance that the price will fall below our Target Zone as part of the beige wave alt.a , which is relevant for any stop-loss orders and could potentially cause a significant short-term drop. In both our scenarios, however, we expect significant increases after the wave a low.
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Gold: Primarily HigherIn our primary scenario, we expect gold to set a new all-time high as part of the ongoing beige wave I. To achieve this, the price should soon generate more upward momentum during the subordinate light green wave 5 and surpass the current all-time high from April 22. Once the wave I cycle has concluded at higher levels, we anticipate the start of a new bearish phase. However, there remains a 40% chance that the precious metal has already completed the beige wave alt.I and is now entering a fresh downward cycle. Under this alternative scenario, the price would break directly below the supports at $3,123 and $2,970.
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S&P500: Top Within ReachThe S&P has recently continued its upward movement, climbing higher into the magenta-colored Short Target Zone between 5,880 and 6,166 points. Primarily, we expect the top of the current wave (X) in magenta within this price range, after which a downtrend should follow with wave (Y). This final phase of the magenta three-part movement should lead the index into the green Long Target Zone between 4,988 and 4,763 points, completing the overarching green wave there. A rise above the upper boundary of the Target Zone and a breach of resistance at 6,675 points would trigger our alternative scenario.
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Polygon: More (short-term) Upward PotentialFor Polygon’s POL, we primarily expect further corrective rises during the blue wave (iv), but below the $0.51 mark, renewed sell-offs should take over. These declines should then drive the price down below the support at $0.15, allowing the large wave to reach its conclusion there. Our alternative scenario – where the low of wave alt. in green would be already behind us (probability: 33%) – is still relevant. This scenario would be reinforced with a jump above the resistance at $0.51 but only finally confirmed with increases above the next higher level at $0.76.
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IBM: Bullish AttemptsIBM has made progress in our scenario: Currently, the price is rising above the crucial resistance at $265.72; clearly surpassing this mark is important in the ongoing wave (3) in magenta. While we cannot entirely remove our alternative scenario with a new low for wave alt. in green, it still holds a 33% probability. We primarily expect that the regular wave in green was already completed at $211.52 and are therefore preparing for a direct continuation of the increases in the broader wave in green.
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NetEase: Upward Surge!NTES generated a strong upward impulse, surging nearly 15% higher, including a gap-up. This brought the stock noticeably closer to the high of the green wave , which should ideally form just below the resistance at $134.44. After this peak, we anticipate significant sell-offs down to the $53.09 support level, where the beige wave II should conclude. Since a sustainable uptrend should follow this low, we have highlighted a magenta Target Zone (coordinates: $59.67 – $27.95), which is suitable for long entries. Once the zone is completed, the price should reach levels above the resistance at $134.44 during the subordinate green wave . This mark also plays a role in our alternative scenario (probability: 38%). If the price rises above the $134.44 resistance without previously reaching the Target Zone, we will have to consider an alternative corrective wave structure, with the price currently in the green wave alt. .
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Apple: Wave [2] Correction We now consider the dark green wave to be complete and thus place AAPL in the intermediate corrective movement of wave , which can be further subdivided into waves (A), (B), and (C) in magenta. Currently, only the last part of this (C) wave should be missing before the next impulsive uptrend unfolds towards the previous all-time high. We must still weigh our alternative scenario with a 34% probability: If the price falls below support at $168, this scenario with a new low for the blue wave alt.(IV) would be confirmed, although in this case, the price should not fall significantly below our previous Target Zone.
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Canopy Growth: Further UpwardThe WEED stock has already realized considerable increases during the current green wave B, which we credit with even more upward potential. However, we primarily expect the top of this movement to be marked below the resistance at C$3.11, and subsequently, the price should move deeper into our magenta Target Zone between C$2.96 and C$0.90 to complete the larger wave ii in orange. The following wave iii should then lead WEED out of the magenta zone and peak above the mentioned C$3.11 resistance. If the stock already rises above this mark during the current movement, we will have to assume that wave alt. ii in orange has already concluded (probability: 37%).
Electronic Arts: Heading LowerElectronic Arts has dropped roughly 13% since our last update, continuing the expected decline within ongoing wave (3). This move is likely to break below support at $114.60 and gradually push the stock downward to the anticipated low. Our alternative scenario suggests the correction may already be done, but that path hinges on a convincing move above $169.82 — a threshold we’re not close to yet. For now, the downtrend remains in control.
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