Get started

Wave Analysis

Do You Have a Trading Edge?A Practical Guide to Figuring Out if What You’re Doing Is Actually Working There comes a point in every trader’s journey when you stop asking “what indicator should I use” and start asking something much more important. Is what I’m doing actually working? It’s an honest question. When the P&L has been chopping sideways or dipping red for weeks, it’s easy to feel stuck. Maybe you’ve been grinding for months, jumping from one setup to another, but still not seeing consistent progress. Before you give up or double down, it’s worth stepping back and looking at the one thing that matters most. Do you have an edge? What Is a Trading Edge, Really? A trading edge isn’t about being right all the time. It isn’t some secret indicator or a feeling in your gut. It’s a cold, hard number. Your edge is the amount of money you can expect to make or lose on average every time you place a trade. If the number is positive, you’re on the right side of probability. If it’s negative, then no amount of motivation or mindset work will stop the account from bleeding over time. Thankfully, there’s a simple formula that tells you exactly where you stand. The Formula: No Hype, Just Maths Edge per trade = (Average Win × Win Rate) − (Average Loss × Loss Rate) Or more simply: Edge = W × R – L × (1−R) Where: • W is your average winning trade in pounds • L is your average losing trade (as a positive number) • R is your win rate, written as a decimal (so 55% becomes 0.55) This is your trading edge. It’s not a concept. It’s a number. And it either works or it doesn’t. Let’s Put It Into Practice Say you win 45% of the time. Your average winning trade makes £180. Your average losing trade costs £120. Plug the numbers in. Edge = £180 × 0.45 minus £120 × 0.55 Edge = £81 minus £66 Edge = £15 That £15 is your expected value per trade. So if you take 100 trades following that same pattern, you’d expect to make £1,500 before costs. That’s the kind of maths you want working in your favour. It’s not glamorous. It’s not loud. But it’s sustainable. What if the Edge Is Negative? This is where a lot of traders lose heart. But it’s actually good news. If the formula tells you the edge isn’t there, you can stop guessing. It means you’ve identified the problem. A negative edge just tells you that, on balance, either: • you’re winning too infrequently • your losses are too large • your winners aren’t big enough And every one of those can be adjusted. This isn’t about tearing down your whole system. Often, a small shift in one variable is all it takes to turn a negative edge into a positive one. Three Ways to Nudge the Numbers in Your Favour 1. Improve the win rate slightly Look for trades with more confluence. Stick to clearer trends. Avoid taking marginal setups during unpredictable conditions. You don’t need a huge jump, even going from 40% to 47% can have a big impact. 2. Increase the size of your winners Let trades run a little longer when the conditions are right. Take partials if it helps your mindset, but keep a portion on to capture the extended move. Most traders cut profits too early and let losers drift too far. 3. Tighten up the losses Use hard stops. Respect them. Review your biggest losing trades and ask yourself if they really had to be that big. Often they didn’t. The goal is to keep losses small and repeatable, not devastating and unpredictable. A Note on Sample Size Five or ten trades won’t give you a reliable read on your edge. You need a bigger pool. Ideally 50 to 100 trades minimum. Patterns emerge over time, not in the heat of one session. A strong edge can go through losing streaks. A poor strategy can get lucky for a while. But when you track your numbers over enough trades, the truth becomes very clear. You’re Probably Closer Than You Think If you’ve never done this calculation before, don’t feel behind. Most retail traders never actually work out their edge. They focus on indicators, entry techniques, or mindset work without ever stopping to ask if the numbers stack up. But once you do the maths, things start to change. You stop judging yourself by your last trade and start thinking in averages. You stop chasing every setup and start focusing on quality. You stop worrying about being right, and start focusing on being consistent. That’s what separates hobbyists from professionals. The numbers are the difference. Summary: If your edge is negative, you now know where to look. If it’s positive, even just slightly, you’ve got something worth building on. Either way, the path forward is clearer. Trading is hard, no question. But it’s not magic. It’s probability, risk control and discipline applied consistently. And it all starts with understanding the maths behind what you’re doing. So next time you’re questioning whether your system is any good, don’t ask how it feels. Run the numbers. Do you have a trading edge? If yes, protect it. If not, now you know what to fix. Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 85.24% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Education
by Capitalcom
1
Bitcoin Uptrend Momentum, Key Buy Zone at 106.3K–105.9K__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Momentum : Uptrend confirmed across all timeframes ≥1H; no signs of exhaustion or overheating. Major supports : 106,319, 99,581, 98,133 USD Major resistances : 108,239, 108,685, 111,949 USD (ATH) Volume : Normal on higher TFs, very high on 30min/15min (potential breakout or institutional shake-out). Behavior : Risk On / Risk Off Indicator = Strong Buy from 1D to 1H, neutral on 15min; ISPD DIV neutral across all TFs (no extreme behaviors). __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Bias : Bullish as long as 98,133 is held on daily closes; structural buying pressure confirmed. Opportunities : Swing accumulation on pullbacks to 106,319–105,900; targeting 108,700 then 111,949 on breakouts. Risk : Geopolitical catalyst or break below D Pivot Low 98,133. Macro catalyst : No major events (Fed, CPI, NFP) over the next 48h. Watch Powell’s speech (2 July). Action Plan : Long entry on pullback to 106,300–105,900, stop <105,900, targets at 108,700 then 111,900. Exit on daily close below 98,133. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D – Daily : Strong uptrend; balanced volumes; supports at 98,134 / 99,581; resistance at 108,239–111,949. 12H/6H/4H : Positive confluence. Accumulate on any return to support; no behavioral excesses detected. 2H–1H : Rising volumes, no divergences; strong timing for entries on dips. 30min/15min : Very high volume (breakout/shake-out); structure remains bullish. 15min Risk On / Risk Off Indicator =Neutral → watch for short-term consolidation or traps but broader trend holds. Clear bullish confluence on all TFs ≥1H, with no behavioral or macro warning. Short-term risks on micro-TFs (extreme volume, possible shake-out). Accumulation zone on 106,300–105,900 pullbacks, invalidation below 98,133. __________________________________________________________________________________ Cross-Analysis & Strategic Synthesis __________________________________________________________________________________ Trend : No reversal signals. All indicators (volume, price action, Risk On / Risk Off Indicator) point to trend continuation. Macro & newsflow : Monetary status quo, no negative catalyst in the short term. Only open risk: geopolitical tensions, closely monitored. On-chain & fund flows : Ongoing ETF inflows, stable capitals, strong HODL trend, SSR stable. Risk management : Stop <105,900, hedge on geopolitical signals. Summary: All TFs ≥1H aligned in bullish cycle, corrections = structured long accumulation opportunities. Key buy zone: 106,300 – 105,900; prudent stop <105,900; main targets 108,700 and ATH. Closely monitor for Powell/Fed headlines. __________________________________________________________________________________
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
APT 35$ SOONHI GUYS See the masterpiece on the chart. Coinciding with very positive news for the currency, The currency has been moving within a price channel since its launch. We also see a false break of the channel, while maintaining the bottom on the RSI. There was no break, so it's considered a false break. With any chance of a market recovery, we'll find the currency rising strongly. It will be a star in the Bull Run. I wish everyone abundant profits. Like and follow for more.
Long
by Spark_king
#GALA/USDT Gala bull run possible ? #GALA The price is moving within a descending channel on the 1-hour frame, adhering well to it, and is on its way to breaking it strongly upwards and retesting it. We have a bounce from the lower boundary of the descending channel, this support at 0.0600. We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that is about to break and retest, supporting the upward move. There is a key support area in green at 0.01312, which represents a strong basis for the upward move. Don't forget one simple thing: ease and capital. When you reach the first target, save some money and then change your stop-loss order to an entry order. For inquiries, please leave a comment. We have a trend of stability above the Moving Average 100. Entry price: 0.01360 First target: 0.01412 Second target: 0.01450 Third target: 0.01500 Don't forget one simple thing: ease and capital. When you reach the first target, save some money and then change your stop-loss order to an entry order. For inquiries, please leave a comment. Thank you.
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal
#GLMR/USDT - Buyers Are Here!#GLMR The price is moving within a descending channel on the 1-hour frame, adhering well to it, and is heading for a strong breakout and retest. We have a bounce from the lower boundary of the descending channel, this support at 0.0600. We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that is about to be broken and retested, supporting the upside. There is a major support area in green at 0.0592, which represents a strong basis for the upside. Don't forget a simple thing: ease and capital. When you reach the first target, save some money and then change your stop-loss order to an entry order. For inquiries, please leave a comment. We have a trend to hold above the 100 Moving Average. Entry price: 0.0615 First target: 0.0623 Second target: 0.0634 Third target: 0.0650 Don't forget a simple thing: ease and capital. When you reach your first target, save some money and then change your stop-loss order to an entry order. For inquiries, please leave a comment. Thank you.
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal
#DYM Dymension's Falling Wedge#DYM The price is moving within a descending channel on the 1-hour frame, adhering well to it, and is on its way to breaking it strongly upwards and retesting it. We have a bounce from the lower boundary of the descending channel. This support is at 0.2130. We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that is about to break and retest, supporting the upside. There is a major support area in green at 0.2100, which represents a strong basis for the upside. Don't forget a simple thing: ease and capital. When you reach the first target, save some money and then change your stop-loss order to an entry order. For inquiries, please leave a comment. We have a trend to hold above the 100 Moving Average. Entry price: 0.2220 First target: 0.2276 Second target: 0.2340 Third target: 0.2427 Don't forget a simple thing: ease and capital. When you reach the first target, save some money and then change your stop-loss order to an entry order. For inquiries, please leave a comment. Thank you.
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal
Proven Results | GBP/USD Trade Recap & Premium Signal AccessYesterday’s trades achieved 75% of all target levels, showcasing the consistency and precision behind my strategy. Today followed with another strong performance—first a successful long trade, then a clean short setup based on evolving price action and structure. These aren’t random calls—they’re calculated, disciplined, and backed by real-time analysis. If you're looking for reliable forex signals that actually deliver, my premium service offers: 🔔 Instant trade alerts with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit 📊 Clear trade breakdowns and market logic 💬 Direct access for questions and guidance 💵 Affordable plans designed for serious traders Join a growing community of traders who are turning insights into results. 📲 Subscribe now and start trading with confidence.
Long
by TheSayyamGroup
POL PROBABLY IN WAVE '' C '' OR " 3 " - LONGThis is in continuation of our ongoing tracking of POL wave structure. POL is currently in C or 3 which will target the 620-623 or 680 level. Our preferred wave count is C and we will target the 620 level. If our wave count is correct then prices will decline to our buy zone of 588-567 range as wave 4. Alternately prices will never go to our buy zone and will reach the 620 - 623 level directly making this trade setup as void. We will buy in portions at 588 > 580 > 576 level Trade setup: Entry price: 588 - 567 Stop loss: 547 Targets: 620 - 623 Let see how this plays, Good Luck! Disclaimer: The information presented in this wave analysis is intended solely for educational and informational purposes. It does not constitute financial or trading advice, nor should it be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities.
PSX:POLLong
by KayJay
The latest gold trend analysis strategy on July 2: I. Core market dynamics Policy factors The Fed's expectations for rate cuts in 2025 have been strengthened (the market is pricing in 2 rate cuts, with a probability of 85%) Trump tends to appoint a dovish Fed chairman Key data outlook: non-farm payrolls (expected to be 185,000), ADP employment Market sentiment indicators U.S. Treasury yields fell below 4.3% Gold ETF holdings increased by 4.2 tons per day II. Technical analysis points Key price levels Support range: √ Short-term: 3325-3315 √ Mid-term: 3280 Resistance range: √ Short-term: 3360-3370 √ Midline: 3400 Technical pattern characteristics Daily line breaks through the 3320 neckline 4-hour rising channel (3325-3365) 1-hour chart top divergence risk appears Momentum indicator status MACD daily line golden cross formed RSI maintained in the 55-60 range ATR volatility rose to 19.3 III. Trading strategy recommendations Day trading plan Long strategy: √ Entry: 3328-3332 range √ Stop loss: below 3318 √ Target: 3355-3360 Short strategy: √ Entry: 3358-3362 range √ Stop loss: above 3368 √ Target: 3335-3340 Breakthrough trading plan Break above 3365: Go long after stepping back to 3360, target 3380 Break below 3318: Go short after rebounding to 3325, target 3300 IV. Risk management points Position allocation Basic position: 3% Trend confirmation: increase to 5% Data market: reduce to 1-2% Key risk control measures Non-agricultural > 220,000: focus on 3280 support Non-agricultural < 150,000: focus on 3400 resistance Strictly implement stop loss (long order 3313/short order 3372) Operation suggestion: It is currently recommended to adopt the "range trading + breakthrough follow-up" strategy combination, focusing on the breakthrough of the key position of 3360. Keep flexible positions before and after the data is released, and give priority to limit orders. The technical and fundamental aspects are at a critical turning point. It is recommended to wait for clear signals before increasing position allocation.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Gold_Hunters_Alliance
USOIL Will Fall! Sell! Take a look at our analysis for USOIL. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 65.603. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 59.910 level soon. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
FX:USOILShort
by SignalProvider
1
EURUSD Will Go Down From Resistance! Short! Please, check our technical outlook for EURUSD. Time Frame: 1h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 1.177. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 1.171. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1