A looon swing trade on gold !! This will test my patience levelsI consider this as an area where the price would reverse
Wave Analysis
Pepe - Revised Elliot Wave Count and Gartley Update/*
Update from last post:
Revised target. Yellow 1.618 support/resistance. Trend based fib extension moved from local range to Elliot Wave 1 and 2 seen with dotted yellow 1 .. 2.. (Pulled from High .. Low .. High) .. hence 1.618 support/resistance. 2.0 the target to fulfill (in my opinion Wave 3 then heading to wave 4 as depicted.
Volatility expected as 1.618 coincides with the lowest low not so long ago. I'm personally expecting lower and given the volatility probably a quick wick to the upside.
Note: If looking back on this chart I've drawn. Something similar has already played out before. PLAY WITH FIB EXTENSION! Awesome!
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Hi Traders -
Macro view of revised wave count and Gartley Harmonic in support of analysis.
Currently we could be still playing out the 3rd wave opposed to what I mentioned in previous posts where mentioning that were looking for the 5th wave to play out.
Used current bias based on previous example as can be seen with the earlier Gartley Harmonic.
Looking for slightly lower (yellow) 1.618 or (blue) 2.0 for support to end the 3rd Wave into the 4th, wave before wave 5 to play out before the corrective waves.
Trading the moment as there are no certainties and only probabilities.
#btcusd #BTC #elliottwave short sell setup wave 4 24Jan25This count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice just for educational purposes only kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.
55R Trade SilverExpecting a move up to $50-60 most likely this year.
Seasonal bearishness start around Oct-Nov time for precious metals so it would make sense for that to kick in around there and as I’m expecting the next move up to be the strongest since the Covid recovery move for various reasons including fundamentals and technicals - notably Platinum gearing up for wave 3 and the miners on the cusp of major multi-year trendline break outs - then a swift move up makes a lot of sense.
ETH looks ready for a breakoutETH has built a flat base and I think a breakout is coming. We got a promisng long i up, ii down setup:
target 1 = 3,550
target 2 = 3,745
TAOTAO, not much to say about, but as i see it the rejection it will continue some $ more and somewhere between the marked lines it will start to build support and change direction,
lets wait and see if 350$ price it will be the entry price long or 320, i would like to see it on 320$.
DYOR
XCN Price ActionCOINBASE:XCNUSD Onyxcoin cointinues price action today, seeing growth anywhere from 50-80% with todays high at 0.02490.
Great to see more positive growth here from Onyxcoin which has a few days of consolidation before breaking above the 0.01800 level and beyond into the numbers we see today. A strong ecosystem that will likely see more growth in the future.
Keep an eye on the 5m chart for some day trades. There are a lot of good positions available to enter the market right now.
XCN Near Term Target 0.0173 COINBASE:XCNUSD After a couple of exciting days for Onyx Coin, we have seen mostly sideways consolidation as the market normalizes prices and new investor capital flows in.
XCN needs to break through the resistance of the previous high around 0.01595, to reach a target of 0.0173 which would signal return to a growth focused trend. Until then, likely more sideways consolidation, but watch out for sudden moves as interest continues to grow.
$COIN Projected PathNASDAQ:COIN ready to take the next major leg up, the most powerful W3. Projected 5 subwave path shown. Target is the 1.618 for the subwaves, and the 1.618 for the Major Waves measured from the W1 and W2. The zone in between the two 1.618 extension zones is the confluence and therefore price target for this w3. This aligns with Bitcoins price to top near end of March-early April as well before a healthy pullback for a W4. Let's see how this pans out.
This post is only for my records. NFA.
WTI crude oil Wave Analysis 23 January 2025
- WTI crude oil reversed from resistance level 78.00
- Likely to fall to support level 72.60
WTI crude oil recently reversed down from the major resistance level 78.00 (has been repeatedly reversing the price from July, as can be seen from the daily WTI chart below)
The downward reversal from the resistance level 78.00 started the active intermediate impulse wave (3).
WTI crude oil can be expected to fall toward the next support level 72.60 (low of the previous short-term correction iv from the start of this month).
AUDCAD Wave Analysis 23 January 2025
- AUDCAD broke round resistance level 0.9000
- Likely to rise to resistance level 0.9080
AUDCAD currency pair recently broke the round resistance level 0.9000 (which stopped the previous wave 4 at the start of January)
The breakout of the resistance level 0.9000 coincided with the breakout of the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from December and the daily down channel from September – which accelerated the active impulse wave 1.
AUDCAD currency pair can be expected to rise toward the next resistance level 0.9080 (top of wave b from the middle of December).
7# Swing Trade Idea2025Break and retest of the area of interest (AOI) has now given us a buying opportunity
6# Swing Trade Idea2025Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern on NZD/USD. We anticipate a market structure shift (MSS) toward the upside, if the trade play out as anticipated then we wait for break and retest of the neckline to buy.
2025-01-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bull channel continues and we are at the top again. At this point it’s possible this spikes above the channel to print 22k. Wild to live through this tbh. 21700 likely next, bears need something below 21500 and then 21380. It’s beyond climactic and overbought.
current market cycle: bull trend - blow-off top
key levels: 21200 - 21700
bull case: Bulls are in full control. No one know’s where it stops. Look for longs. Nothing new to report. Channel is holding and we are just moving higher without much resistance. Nothing changed. Again.
Invalidation is below 21300.
bear case: Bears need to start closing the gaps. This also has not changed. The bullish channel lives and until we break out of it, there isn’t much to analyse. All of my bullish targets are met and this looks just like the climactic end but who know’s where it will stop… Bears have nothing to think about here. Way too early for any short.
Invalidation is above 21700.
short term: Bullish until bears do more. Trade the channel.
medium-long term from 2024-01-23: Market hit 21600 and now it’s about being patient until we sell-off again. I won’t be picking tops again. I just wait now.
current swing trade: None.
trade of the day: Buying near the 1h 20ema as mentioned the last couple of days.
2025-01-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Pretty much tapped out of this market at the moment. I thought it looked decent that we could bottom out at 75 but another strong spike down to 74.5 is wild.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 73 - 80
bull case: Bulls have their do or die moment at 73 tomorrow. Either bottom out or we likely see 70 next. The buying was so climactic upwards but now it’s the same for the selling. Tough market for me. Got honestly nothing for the bulls until they print higher highs again and trade consecutive 1h bars above 76.5.
Invalidation is below 75.
bear case: Bears just took this over from the high and we are selling every little rip. Amazing to see but I still think it’s tough to trade. I won’t turn bear now right at the 50% retracement and daily 20ema. Below 74 we could test 72 next and afterwards there is no more support until 70.
Invalidation is above 76.5.
short term: Either it finds support at the daily 20ema around 74 or it might es will just continue down to 70 again.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Shorting 76 has been profitable since Tuesday.
Bitcoin 30 min. Chart update!We have color-coded the candles, which adds to our speculation, as to where the price might likely go next...💲
Market Snapshotwww.elliottwavetrader.net
Another great write-up by Avi Gilburt and team on the current state of things at a Macro level
Not affiliated with them and not pushing any of their services of course..
Do I agree with everything they say? Nope
The below snippet from the article hints at the TRUE reason why things are going to get desperate in this economy over the next decade:
"QE is merely a machination through which more debt is made available in the system, which is an indirect manner to increase the money supply. It is not actual printing of dollar bills, which would directly increase the money supply. Therefore, if more debt is made available, the only way you will get inflation is if there is public demand for that additional supply of debt. Without the matching demand for the additional debt supply, QE becomes a failure."
Solana Down then Up. Retest of the breakout. 200 area targetMy theory is we go down first before going up. We finish this ABC correction and touch down to the 1.618 retracement lvl. I put the retracement lvl from the bottom of A to the top of the breakout to get the retracement levels.
The 1.618 lvl touches the trendline and we get a proper retest. I know we have a wick that came down and touched. But I am not entirely convinced that is enough.
Afterwards we have a trend based fib extension that I drew on the right to measure the next big macro move. targeting 700 area. ( not immediate move) but the macro.
Theories and Ta used.
Elliot wave, fib retracement , trend based fib extension
HELLO TRADERS BTCUSD ANALYSIS KINDLY SHARE YOUR FEEDBACK According My Personal Analysis Btcusd Move Around These Areas Chart Price Currect $1051OO I Can Expert If Price Break Its Resistance $108500 It Can Further Fly To $110500 And In Short If Break The Support Zone $102700 It Can Further Falls To $100700 key areas
Possible Buy $110500
Possible Sell $100700
Support Zone $102700
Resistance Zone $108500
RUNE/USD Elliott Wave Analysis: Bullish Wave 3 Elliott Wave Analysis: Bullish Wave 3 Confirmation
The updated chart suggests that Wave 2 of the Elliott Wave cycle is nearing its completion, and we are positioned for the beginning of Wave 3, the most impulsive wave.
Wave 2 Levels and Structure
Price Levels:
The correction of Wave 2 has retraced briefly but is finding support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level around $3.01.
The 78.6% retracement level at $1.40 remains a critical invalidation level for this wave count.
Volume:
A declining volume during the correction supports the idea of a consolidation phase, typical before the next impulsive wave.
Support Zone:
Primary support levels are:
$3.01 (50% retracement): Key psychological and Fibonacci support.
$2.20 (61.8% retracement): Structural support level.
$1.40 (78.6% retracement): Ultimate invalidation for this bullish count.
Wave 3 Projection
Using Fibonacci extensions of Wave 1 for projecting Wave 3:
1.618 Extension (Primary Target): $12.88 – Typical target for Wave 3.
2.0 Extension (Extended Target): $15.40 – Strong wave momentum scenario.
2.618 Extension (Highly Optimistic): $30.17 – Maximum potential target for a parabolic move.
Momentum Indicators
MACD:
The MACD on higher timeframes (weekly) is attempting to flatten, signaling that bearish momentum is decreasing.
A bullish crossover will confirm Wave 3 initiation.
RSI:
The RSI is currently stabilizing near 40-50, a typical zone where corrections end and new impulses start.
Watch for RSI to cross above 50 as a confirmation of strengthening bullish momentum.
Trade Strategy
Entry Strategy:
Accumulate positions near $2.20-$3.01 (61.8%-50% retracement levels).
Confirmation entry on a breakout above $3.50, which aligns with Wave 1's high.
Stop-Loss:
Conservative: Below $2.00 (below 61.8% retracement for minimal risk).
Aggressive: Below $1.40 (78.6% retracement, Wave 2 invalidation).
Targets:
Take Profit 1: $12.88 (1.618 extension).
Take Profit 2: $15.40 (2.0 extension).
Take Profit 3: $30.17 (2.618 extension).
Risk-to-Reward:
With an entry near $2.50 and a target of $12.88, the trade offers a R:R ratio of ~4:1.
Confirmation Signals
Break of the $3.50 resistance will strongly confirm Wave 3 initiation.
Increasing volume and MACD bullish crossover are essential for validating the impulsive move.
RSI moving above 50 will confirm upward momentum.
Conclusion
The updated price levels and Fibonacci projections align well with the start of Wave 3. The $2.20-$3.01 range presents an excellent accumulation zone, while the first major resistance at $3.50 must break to confirm the bullish wave count. Maintain tight risk management, and monitor volume and momentum indicators for entry confirmation.
