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Wave Analysis

CoinbaseThere isn't much to add to my COIN analysis. Price hit just shy of the 1.618 and then reversed. Price dropped by almost 10% from that last high. This bodes well for the top being in and the irregular (B) wave pattern prevailing. We still have a lot of work to do to prove that is what is happening though. Until we can breach $277 followed by a breach of $232.85, we can't be for certain. Yes, we will have hints on the way down. However, these price points will be what confirms the pattern lower. As I said above, COIN has a lot of work to do to prove its intentions. This last move up I think is largely due to the end of the quarter, congressional legislation, and FOMO. MACD is back to within the red trend lines and appears to be weakening to the downside. This shouldn't be too surprising given how far we fell last Friday. That move lower, has created a 3-wave move thus far. Another local low before starting a consolidation higher would create a 5-wave pattern bringing more clarity, but it isn't required. Again, I don't want to see another high made above last Thursdays if (B) is to be correct. A new high itself doesn't invalidate an irregular (B), but it would cause me to become very skeptical of it. When I said last week that COIN has a pivotal moment right in front of it, I wasn't kidding. It appears to have chosen a move lower for now, but it is not guaranteed to continue and we could always move higher again from here. Just be careful in whatever position you take, and use stops to protect your assets.
NASDAQ:COIN
by TSuth
#Nifty directions and levels for June 30:Good morning, Friends! 🌞 Here are the market directions and levels for June 30: Market Overview There have been no changes in the global or local markets. Both the global markets and our local markets are showing bullish sentiment. Gift Nifty is indicating a positive start of around 20 points today. So, what can we expect today? The structures are still the same as what we saw in Friday’s session. We are currently in a minor consolidation zone, so if the market faces rejection near the immediate resistance, we can expect a retracement of around 38% to 50% in the minor swing. On the other hand, if the market breaks the immediate resistance with a solid structure, then it could reach the next resistance level with the strong bullish bias.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manickamtraders
3
PalantirOn Friday Palantir dropped pretty hard causing MACD to drop all the way to our bottom trend line. It created overlap with the pattern which brings a further rise to the target box into question. On thing I can say about this pattern with certainty, is it is very sloppy. It in no way appears as an impulsive pattern due to the choppy overlapping nature of it. This is what leads me to believe it is an ED. If it is an ED that leaves us with two possibilities. It is either within its wave 4, which would explain the overlap, or it just finished (v) of (5) of ((1)). We need more price action to determine which count prevails. A drop below $117.22 and that is a huge warning that the upside is done. Below $105.32 and that confirms it for me. To raise higher again breaching our ATH shows that the ED is not yet done and we're most likely rising to the $160 area. Don't forget, when an ED finished, it moves towards the place of origin in a strong move.
NASDAQ:PLTR
by TSuth
2
$BTC Weekend Update - A New Hope - 6/29Hello fellow degenerates, Price held beautifully above 106.6k key level and is now attempting a test of 110.4k level. We are in a high risk zone as we do have a lot of levels that could initiate a reversal down, so ultimate caution is needed. - Price hit the target where a Wave 1 could be so I am looking for a possible retracement that would take us towards 103k. - In the most bullish scenario, both Wave 1 and 2 have been completed and price could just break above ATH and continue higher, but this is just wishful thinking. - Currently watching for a break above the Parallel channel resistance - Levels to Watch: 110.4k, 106.6k, 103.4k, 101k
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Caramel0
Gold Drops Sharply as Risk Appetite ReturnsGlobal gold prices extended their sharp decline into the final trading session of the week, sliding more than 1.5% and pausing around $3,274/oz as safe-haven sentiment continues to erode. 📰 What’s driving the sell-off? The primary trigger is the official signing of a trade agreement between the US and China, marking the end of a prolonged trade standoff. US Commerce Secretary confirmed that more agreements will follow before the July 9 deadline, including a commitment by China to supply rare earths to the US. This announcement sparked broad optimism across global markets, significantly reducing demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Geopolitics also turned more constructive. Iran has expressed diplomatic goodwill, with its UN representative stating the country is ready to negotiate a regional nuclear coalition if a deal with Washington is reached. Meanwhile, Al Arabiya reported that the Israel–Gaza conflict may conclude within two weeks, further lowering geopolitical tensions. On the data front, US economic indicators continue to surprise to the upside. Core PCE rose 2.7% YoY in May, beating forecasts, while durable goods orders and jobless claims both reflected strength in the US economy. Still, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari reiterated that two rate cuts are likely in 2025, suggesting the Fed remains open to easing once inflation cools further. 🔍 Technical outlook Gold has broken below the key $3,330 support, confirming a short-term bearish structure. If the correction continues, the next levels to watch are $3,245, and more critically, the $3,200 zone. In the short term, gold faces downside risk due to improving global economic sentiment and easing geopolitical threats. However, over the medium to long term, Fed policy shifts and unforeseen geopolitical events could still reverse the current trend. Stay alert, watch the charts, and trade smart. Have a great weekend, everyone! 🌍📊
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Edward_TradingFX
XAUUSD June 29,2025🟦 XAUUSD Analysis – June 29, 2025 Market Structure: Price is in a bearish trend on the 1H timeframe. Liquidity is resting below a recent low around $3,240 (Sell-Side Liquidity – SSL). There is a visible Order Block (OB) around $3,310–$3,320, which could act as a magnet if price reverses. Anticipated Move (Blue Path): 1. Price is expected to drop below the SSL to trigger stop-losses and collect liquidity. 2. After the liquidity grab, a bullish reversal is likely. 3. Price may then rally toward the OB, which could act as resistance or a point for institutional selling. --- 🔎 Probability Breakdown: Event: Break below SSL (~$3,240) Likelihood: ✅ High Note: Classic liquidity grab setup Event: Bullish reversal after sweep Likelihood: ⚠️ Moderate–High Note: Wait for confirmation (BOS, FVG, bullish candle) Event: Rally to OB (~$3,310–$3,320) Likelihood: ⚠️ Moderate Note: Depends on bullish structure forming Event: Rejection from OB Likelihood: ✅ High Note: OB may act as supply zone --- ⚠️ Caution: This scenario is only valid if price grabs SSL first. No entry should be made without a proper bullish confirmation (e.g., break of structure, fair value gap fill, or strong bullish candle). Always use risk management – this is a hypothetical setup, not financial advice. ---
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSD
by Un_Traders
June 30, 2025 - XAUUSD GOLD Analysis and Potential OpportunitySummary: Keep a close eye on fundamental news — any major headlines could instantly invalidate technical levels and short-term indicators. From the current chart structure, the trend remains clearly bearish, so the primary strategy is to sell on pullbacks to resistance. Watch key levels like 3283, 3300, and 3350 closely — if price breaks above these, it could signal weakening bearish momentum, requiring a quick strategy adjustment. 🔍 Key Levels to Watch: • 3310–3312 – Resistance zone • 3300 – Psychological level • 3295 – Resistance • 3283 – Intraday key resistance • 3266 – Intraday key support • 3250–3255 – Support zone • 3245 – Support • 3233 – Support 📈 Intraday Strategy: • SELL if price breaks below 3266 → target 3260, then 3250, 3245, 3233 • BUY if price holds above 3283 → target 3295, then 3301, 3312, 3320 👉 If you want to know how I time entries and set stop-losses, hit the like button so I know there's interest — I may publish a detailed post by the weekend if support continues! Disclaimer: This is my personal opinion, not financial advice. Trade with caution and always manage your risk.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Ombabibi
#202526 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Monday was neutral and the warning to bears that the markets do not care about the risk at hand. Tuesday’s gap up then was the sign of bull strength and defending the Globex gap was the sure sign we are going higher. Thursday was the bears giving up and since we have a measured move target up to 24700. I have drawn my 5-wave thesis on the chart, which I think is currently the most likely outcome. All depends if the US markets continue the squeeze as well. There is always the possibility that Friday marked the highs but that is very low and in the absence of bear bars, we can only assume higher prices. current market cycle: trading range key levels for next week: 23500 - 25000 bull case: Bulls made the bears give up on Thursday and since we have been going only up. The obvious next targets are 24500 and then 25000. As of now, there is absolutely no reason to assume we reverse from here and print lower lows again. Bulls took over control of the market again and we have two clear legs up, with a third one we may do a new ath but as always, every pattern can fail. Invalidation is below 23500 bear case: Not much. A pullback is expected but so is the third leg up for W5 and everything below 23500 would be a huge bear surprise and cut this short. As of now I don’t think this chart can lead you to looking for shorts. We would need a break of two bull trend lines and prices below 23500 before you should think bearish again. Invalidation is above 24400 short term: Bearish was the obvious read last weekend and when bears failed on Monday, it set the stage for an explosive move to the upside. That can always happen since we are in a profession where you play odds. medium-long term from 2025-06-29: Bull surprise last week but my targets for the second half of 2025 remain the same. I still expect at least 21000 to get hit again this year. As of now, bulls are favored until we drop below 23000
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
#202526 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Similar to dax and for most other markets. Cash index made a new ath and broke strongly above the trading range. This is W5 which I thought was cut short but I guess not. It’s most likely the end of the trend since the trading range went on for about 6 weeks, which in this case was likely the final flag. Futures could now aim to print 23000 and touch the bull trend line which began in 2021 and went though the ath from 2024-12. current market cycle: resumption of the bull trend but likely the final flag and we most likely will top out here around/under 23000 key levels for next week: 22000 - 23000 bull case: Bulls printed 5 consecutive bull bars. They are in full control and could pump it to 23000. Purely based on momentum and squeezing shorts. Got nothing else for the bulls. Invalidation is below 21500 bear case: Bears gave up on Monday and I doubt they want to fight this until we hit the bull trend line or 23000. Most bears will wait for a clear topping sign that bulls are beginning to take bigger profits before they think about shorts. As of now, bears have zero arguments on their side. Only a daily close below 22300 would confirm this bull trap and fake breakout above the bull channel and then we could test down to 21900ish but for now I think it’s most likely we go higher. Invalidation is above 23100 short term: Neutral. Will only scalp longs on huge momentum and I will only start thinking about shorts once we break below 22300 again. medium-long term - Update from 2024-06-29: No change in plans. I expect 20000 to get hit over the next 3 months and maybe 19000 again.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
#202526 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Day and I hope you are well. #mcl1 - wti crude oil futures comment: Yeah I don’t know about this one. Your guess is as good as mine. I could even see this touching 63 before going higher again. Most erratic and extreme price action the past 2 weeks, so maybe wait a bit before jumping the train here. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 63 - 80 bull case: Bulls don’t have much. They could not close one decent bar at the high since 2025-06-11 and despite all the bull spikes, we only sold afterwards and are back below 65 where the extreme breakout happened. Best guess here is that we stay above 63 and go sideways. Sideways up to where? No idea. Could be 68, could be 70. Invalidation is below 63 bear case: Too extreme. Both sides have to take quick profits or the next spike will take them away again. So most likely sideways in a range until a newsbomb hit again. Range could be 63 - 68. Invalidation is above 79 short term: Neutral. Not touching this unless someone threatens me with a gun. medium-long term - Update from 2025-06-22: Let’s leave this as “todo” for now. No read on this and I won’t make stuff up just to post something.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
#202526 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Day and I hope you are well. #btcusd - bitcoin comment: Neutral since bears fumbled it again. Range is clear, don’t have much else to say about this. Bulls want 113k+ and bears need a strong daily close below 100k for more downside. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 100k - 115k bull case: Bulls are still hopeful, that’s why we are still above 110k but the next touch could break it and I doubt many will hold long or scale into new ones there. Best bulls can get right now is to go sideways for longer and stay above 100k. I mean… Staying above 100k is as bullish as it get’s if you be honest. Same as last week since nothing has changed for the bulls. Trading range since mid May. Invalidation is a strong daily close below 100k bear case: Bears fumbled it again. Strong daily close below 100k or we won’t go lower. Right now odds favor the bears to go down from 107k to 100k but need more selling pressure. Invalidation is above 110k short term: As neutral as can be. medium-long term - Update from 2025-06-29: Strong daily close below 100k will be the confirmation for more downside. First target below 100k is 97k the breakout retest and after that is the 50% retracement around 93k. I have no bullish for the next weeks/months. Once the gap to 97k closes we are likely in a bear trend again and I expect to hit at least 85k over the summer.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
2
Navigating Gold Futures: Support, Resistance, and ProjectionsCOMEX:GC1! The chart appears to depict a clear five-wave pattern: I, II, III, IV, and V. Waves I to III show strong upward movements, indicating bullish sentiment. Wave IV looks like it could be a corrective phase, with a potential dip before another upward movement in Wave V. Support and Resistance Levels: The horizontal lines around 2,800 and 2,575.3 indicate critical Fibonacci retracement levels (38.20% and 50%). If the price approaches these levels during the correction, they could serve as support, making it a potential buying opportunity. RSI Indicator: From the bottom indicator (RSI), we can see fluctuations in momentum, which can aid in timing trades. Look for interpretations of the RSI: if it trends towards the extremes (overbought/oversold), that could signal reversal points. Future Projections: Should the market respect the outlined support levels, Wave V could potentially push towards a new high above 4,000 as indicated by the upward projection. Market Sentiment: Overall, the pattern suggests a bullish outlook long-term, but caution is warranted during corrective phases as prices might retrace towards support levels.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Trwin