Wave Analysis
XAU/USD 24 April 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 23 April 2025
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price printed as per my note yesterday whereby I mentioned that we should be surprised if price printed a bearish iBOS as all HTF's require a pullback.
Price subsequently printed a bearish iBOS which confirms internal structure.
Intraday Expectation:
Price has traded up to just short of premium of internal 50% EQ where we are seeing a reaction. Price could potentially trade further into premium of 50%, or H4/M15 nested supply zone before targeting weak internal low priced at 3,260.190.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
Trump's tariff announcement will most likely cause considerably increased volatility and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
Spy Road To $500SPY is currently hovering around $533 in the afterhours session. Based on today’s price action and macro sentiment, if we open between $533–$532, we’re eyeing a potential retracement to the $522 zone. This zone aligns with previous demand structure and key VWAP deviation.
Bearish Confirmation Triggers:
Failure to reclaim $535 in the first 2 hours.
Breakdown below $530 + low volume bounce = short trigger.
MACD histogram flipping red on the 1H.
Target Zone: $522–$520
Stop Loss: Above $535 reclaim
Indicators Used: VWAP, MACD, Volume Imbalance, Daily Pivot Zones, Institutional Flow Heatmap.
We’re also watching dark pool prints under $529 and the delta shift on order flow—both signaling increasing bearish pressure.
If SPY opens flat and ranges for 2 hours → downside bias continues.
As always safe Trades
Hellena | BITCOIN (4H): LONG to resistance area of 98,000.Dear colleagues, in this forecast I will not make too forward-looking plans. I believe that the upward movement is not over yet, because the wave “C” is not yet completed and consists of five waves.
I think that we should expect to reach the resistance area of 98,000. A small correction to the support area of 90,000 is possible.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Gold short-term analysisGold daily line fell 240 dollars from the top of 3500. At present, 3500 is under short-term pressure. Whether the adjustment is over or not cannot be confirmed. The short-term 4-hour middle track 3380 has been lost and converted into a key resistance!
The 1-hour level K-line is under pressure and ma10 and ma5 continue to fall. After yesterday's consolidation and pull-up in the NY market, the K-line has now re-run above ma10, plus macd is under the zero axis. The rapid decline of 200 dollars has almost corrected most of the upward trend. If it continues to fall, it may start to build a bottom with the help of the bottom divergence, and then start the next round of gains!
Today is also a critical day for gold. After the bottom of 3260, today's strength is very important. If gold continues to rise directly today without a big correction, it means that gold may start to fluctuate and rise again.
Key points:
First support: 3320, second support: 3300, third support: 3288
First resistance: 3360, second resistance: 3376, third resistance: 3400
Operation ideas:
Buy: 3315-3318, SL: 3306, TP: 3340-3360;
Sell: 3387-3390, SL: 3400, TP: 3370-3350;
EURCHF: Watch for Price Reaction Near Support ZoneEURCHF: Watch for Price Reaction Near Support Zone
The EURCHF pair has tested a major support zone for the fourth time since December 2023.
This level also marks the lowest price, but rather than reflecting CHF strength, the movement seems to be driven by intervention from the Swiss National Bank (SNB).
While some analysts suggest a safe-haven shift to CHF due to the Trade War, the sharp drop in GBPCHF—despite GBP's overall strength—raises doubts about this theory.
If this support holds, EURCHF could rebound towards key resistance levels: 0.9355, 0.9425, 0.9485, 0.9545, and 0.9600.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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CHFJPY BUY?Market is reacting to daily area on Daily time frame. Based on 4HR TF, the market seems to be forming a possible reversal pattern which could lead to a possible reversal.
We could see BUYERS coming in strong should the current level hold.
Disclaimer:
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is solely intended for educational and informational purposes only.The analysis provided is based on my own view of the market. Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account.
High-Risk Warning
Trading in foreign exchange on margin entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. In this case, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and in your favor
Gold may continue to fall in the short term
Trading sometimes does require some luck, but in the long run, good luck and bad luck will offset each other. To continue to succeed, you must rely on skills and apply good principles. Always remember; "Trading gold: half science, half art, all discipline."
📌 Driving events
The continued uncertainty of President Donald Trump's tariff policy and its broader impact on global economic growth have exacerbated market anxiety. These factors have triggered a new wave of safe-haven demand, pushing investors back into the gold market.
📊Commentary analysis
Gold prices are still facing selling pressure and are consolidating below the downward trend line. Trading prices are around 3,300 or lower.
💰Strategy Package
Short position:
Participate around 3320-30 points, profit target around 3290-80 points
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the fund account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the fund account
BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF Can Be Unfolding A Bullish ImpulseBlackRock's Bitcoin ETF with ticker IBIT made a massive rally in 2024, which can be wave 3 of an ongoing five-wave bullish impulse. Despite the recent decline at the beginning of 2025, it's still above 42 invalidation level, and as long as it's above that level, it can be wave 4 correction, so we may still see that 5th wave this year.
The Elliott Wave Principle is a form of technical analysis that identifies patterns in market movements. A bullish impulsive wave is one of the most important and common wave structures in an uptrend. It describes how prices typically move in the direction of the main trend. A bullish impulsive wave consists of five waves labeled 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.
EGLD Eyes Tactical Rebound from Structural SupportEGLD remains in a defined macro downtrend since its $544 ATH, but the current price action is reacting once again at a key lateral trendline that has historically triggered major bullish rebounds. The ongoing bounce from this structural support suggests a potential short-term rally toward the $40 resistance zone.
We're positioning within the immediate demand zone, with close attention on price behavior at the nearby weak resistance, which could cap this relief move. A breakdown below this demand region, however, opens the door for deeper downside toward the critical support zone highlighted on the chart.
BTC Breakout!??Btc breakout after a long consolidation, back down to the 88k-90k or to a 618 long term support level.Bouncing off 75k.
Looks like BTC is having a nice breakout. First wave to the first major resistance $94k. Are we going to get a small pull back consolidation and a second wave to $96 or $111k?
SUI Is Entering Into Final Stage Of Bull MarketHello, Skyrexians!
On yesterday's crypto pump BINANCE:SUIUSDT was the greatest performer and people started to have an interest in this coin will continue growing or this is just a bull trap. Let's try to understand it.
On the 1W time frame we have unclear, but Elliott wave structure. It looks like wave 4 overlapped with the wave 1. You will tell me that it's impossible. In practice it can happen especially on altcoins. According to the Awesome Oscillator wave 4 is finished which can be also confirmed by our Bullish/Bearish Reversal Bar Indicator . The final wave 5 will reach the green box, to have the more accurate target we need to count waves inside wave 5.
Best regards,
Skyrexio Team
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GOLD → Reversal or correction? What to do now?FX:XAUUSD reaching the psychological high of $3500 has entered the correction phase, which was also influenced by a slight easing of the tariff conflict between the U.S. and China....
After falling without reaching the zone of interest 3288, the gold price is strengthening at the beginning of the European session, expecting PMI data from the U.S.. Earlier, the metal reached a record of $3,500, but rolled back amid hopes for an easing of the trade war with China and words of the US Treasury Secretary about a possible “détente”.
The dollar recovered as part of the correction, but investors doubt Trump's predictability, gold at this time begins a correction. In the center of attention is the PMI index from S&P Global: its results may affect expectations for Fed Funds rates and give a new direction to the market.
Resistance levels: 3340, 3360, 3366
Support levels: 3317, 3288
Technically gold is in correction and confirms the bearish structure. But any unexpected statement by Trump may attract aggressive buying.
Nevertheless, we should now consider a possible decline from 3340 - 3360 - 3366. Buying could be considered on a retest of support or a close above 3370.
Regards R. Linda!
EURAUD → False breakdown as part of a bullish trend correctionFX:EURAUD amid the global bullish trend is forming a correction to the trading range support. Bulls are trying to hold the 1.775 zone
The currency pair is in a wide range, in consolidation. Relative to the lower boundary of the range, the price makes a false breakdown and liquidity capture, which may lead to a correction to 0.5 of the range, or to resistance
Price consolidation above 1.775 and formation of local reversal pattern may affect further growth (global trend is bullish, locally - correction). The fundamental background is unstable, but the dollar index is still in correction after a strong fall....
Resistance levels: 1.7855, 1.7987
Support levels: 1.775, 1.7695
If the bulls hold the defense above the key support - the lower boundary of the trading range, the currency price may bounce up and head for the liquidity accumulated above the resistance....
Regards R. Linda!
Gold short-term analysisSpot gold rebounded slightly in early Asian trading on Thursday and is currently trading around $3,329, supported by bargain hunting. Gold prices continued to fall from record highs on Wednesday, falling nearly 3%, hitting a low of $3,260.08 and closing at $3,288.18. Investors were relieved by hopes of easing trade tensions and President Trump's abandonment of his threat to fire the Fed chairman. The dollar rebounded against major currencies on Wednesday, with the dollar index rising 0.94% on Wednesday, recording two consecutive gains on the daily line, reaching a high of 99.94, a nearly one-week high, and closing at 99.90. Earlier, US President Trump said he did not intend to fire the Fed chairman and hinted at progress on tariffs. The dollar and US stocks rebounded, suppressing gold prices. After gold prices were blocked and fell back at the 3,500 mark, more short-term long profit-taking also dragged down gold prices.
From the daily level, gold rose strongly during Tuesday's session, hit the key price of 3,500, then fell back and finally closed down. This trend of rising and falling showed that the selling pressure from above was heavy, and the buying power encountered strong resistance from selling at high levels. Then, gold continued to fall on Wednesday and closed down again, forming a technical pattern of two consecutive declines. This continuous decline further confirmed that short-term bears are dominant.
Overall, today's short-term operation strategy for gold is mainly rebound short selling. The upper short-term focus is on the 3365-3370 line of resistance, and the lower short-term focus is on the 3305-3300 line of support
Interval buy: 3305-3303, LS:3293, TP: 3325-3335
Interval sell: 3360-3362, LS:3372, TP: 3340-3345
Key points:
First support: 3305, second support: 3300, third support: 3290
First resistance: 3360, second resistance: 3370, third resistance: 3375
Will History Repeat Itself? $580 Target For SPY By Early MayThe market has been in the doldrums since finding support after a nasty wave of selling that caused AMEX:SPY to decline by an additional 15% in a matter of days. Since we’ve been chopping around in this $65 range, we have seen some sharp swings both ways, but little sense of direction. i think that is about to change soon. Using the time around the Death Cross (When the daily 50MA crosses below the 200MA) of 2022 as a frame of reference, and taking recent PA into account using Elliott Wave, I think it is clear a bear market rally is already underway.
Starting with 2022, the price fell in three distinct waves before making a significant retracement. The day after the 50MA crossed below the 200MA, the price found a temporary bottom before chopping around for 13 sessions. Volume was on a steady decline before the price made a higher low and retraced nearly 75% of Wave (A) over the course of another 13 sessions (13 is a fibonacci number btw). The price briefly spiked above all of the moving averages (50/100/200) before getting sold off again in the strongest wave of the bear market of that year.
Now looking at the daily chart for this year, the setup is a little bit different but there are still similarities. For starters, the 50MA crossed below the 200MA a few days after the market found a temporary bottom at $482. What I’m counting as Wave A of (B) lasted for five sessions (another Fibonacci number). Wave B of (B) was actually four sessions but I decided to compare the volume of both movements using the same chunk of time. As you can see, there was nearly double the volume in Wave A vs Wave B, signaling that bulls are in control (for now). Volume in Wave A was comparatively higher on average than the entire downtrend, which is also worthy of note.
Since we are now in Wave C of (B) and the 100MA is converging with the 200MA, we should see the squeeze here. A similar retracement to complete Wave (B), when comparing to 2022, would suggest AMEX:SPY will spike above $580 rather quickly before the next sell off. If Wave C were to unfold in a more conservative eight sessions (the next biggest fib number) we should see Wave (B) end around Thursday May 1st. It could take a little bit longer since the next FOMC is May 6-7, which could be an event that will cause the market to change directions.
Lastly, for a closer look, this is how I am counting the sub-waves on the 500R ($5) chart. Wave B was a classic Regular Flat pattern that saw wave (c) find support slightly past 100% of wave (a) at roughly $509. The price quickly found support (much faster than I would have expected) without filling the gap and ripped higher. We’ve also seen the price hover around monthly VWAP for a while, which indicates somewhat of an agreement on price despite the wild swings.
The price gapped up over 2% on Wednesday before seeing some selling in the afternoon. We could either close this gap on Thursday or continue higher to close the upper gap at $560 and beyond. Volume increased from wave (b)-(c), and has remained higher - which I think is accumulation. Using intraday ratios, Wave C of (B) could extend as high as the 1.618 extension at $587.
Actually, one last thing. TVC:VIX price action also supports my thesis. Even through the PA on AMEX:SPY was relatively neutral on Wednesday after the gap up, VIX still importantly dropped below support and is now below the 0.618 retracement. I think it will return to the 200MA for support, which usually hovers around $20. Fib circles added just because they’re kind of interesting to me when analyzing VIX.
If you’ve made it this far, thank you for reading and good luck. As always - use your best judgement and be ready to react to anything that happens in the market.