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Wave Analysis

GOLD: Expanding-Leading-Diagonal, the 3-3-3-3-3 variety?#Gold (XAUUSD), 1 hour: IMHO, a rare but probable Elliott Wave pattern is unfolding on the chart, known as an Expanding-Leading-Diagonal (the 3-3-3-3-3 variety) to the downside. ⚠️ If price breaks above red wave-2 near $3438, this bearish outlook gets invalidated. 📉 Until then, downside pressure remains on the table. Once wave-3 low ($3120) is broken, this becomes my primary wave counts for Gold. Trade wisely and watch key levels mentioned on the chart. ~EWTIC Mentor~
TVC:GOLDShort
by Elliottician_SamRoy
EURO/USD -demand zone culminating at the projected reversal area Key Zones & Patterns Break of Structure (BOS): A BOS is marked in the red circle on the left side, signaling a shift from a bullish to a bearish market structure. Supply Zone (Green Box at Bottom): This zone was tested after the BOS and sparked a reversal. It acted as a major accumulation area (around 1.10500–1.11500 range). Harmonic Pattern (AB=CD/XABCD): The chart shows a harmonic pattern identified by points X, A, B, C, D. XA to AB retracement: Approximately 61.8% BC to CD extension: Suggests a harmonic completion near point D Parallel Channel: A bullish trend channel is drawn as the price rises post-demand zone, culminating at the projected reversal area. --- Current Market Outlook Price Level: Around 1.136xx at the time of screenshot. Projected Action: The chart suggests the price may reverse downward from the current supply area near 1.141xx. A bearish move is forecasted with a red arrow indicating a drop. A horizontal arrow suggests a consolidation zone before continuation. The TARGET level is marked near the 1.123xx region. --- Trade Setup Idea Sell Zone (Red Box at Top): Anticipated area for short entries, in alignment with the harmonic pattern completion and overextension. Short-Term Bias: Bearish Rejection from harmonic D-point and supply zone Break of ascending channel support is anticipated Downside Target: 1.123xx zone, which aligns with a prior consolidation and demand interest Clear risk-reward structure: stop above 1.141xx, target near 1.123xx --- Conclusion This EUR/USD chart suggests a bearish reversal is likely after completing a harmonic structure at a key resistance/supply area. Price action confirms a potential break below the ascending channel. The setup presents a clean short opportunity with confirmation bias coming from structure break (BOS), harmonic alignment, and a defined supply zone.
Short
by Johnson67
Beware, the US dollar is at a technical crossroads 1) The US Dollar remains the weakest major Forex currency in 2025 The US dollar has had a difficult year on the foreign exchange market (Forex), recording a decline of over 9% against the world's major currencies, despite the Federal Reserve's continuing rigid monetary policy. Technically speaking, the DXY index has reached several theoretical bearish targets, notably according to Elliot analysis, but has not yet touched the key objective of the A=C movement. This dynamic is also evident in the strong chartist compression in weekly data, placing the USD at a potential breakout point. The EUR/USD and USD/JPY pairs are also in long-term hinge configurations, and institutional positions remain broadly bearish on the US dollar against a basket of major currencies. Two interesting charts on the current situation are presented below: the first shows Japanese candlesticks in monthly data, and the second is a theoretical reminder of how Elliott waves work. As long as the US dollar against a basket of major currencies (DXY) remains below the indicated pivot line, the trend remains bearish, with a target of 95/96 points. Conversely, a rebound above the hinged pivot line would put an end to the US dollar's annual correction, with the starting point for a technical recovery. 2) A weakening dollar despite an inflexible Fed: how to explain this paradox? The apparent paradox of a falling US dollar while US interest rates remain high and the Fed does not expect to cut rates before September/October, goes beyond simple rate differentials. At a time when the ECB has already embarked on a policy of monetary easing, the rate differential with the Fed should normally support the USD. However, other factors are taking over: the markets' growing mistrust of US assets, fuelled by trade tensions and uncertainty over Trump's fiscal policy, is weakening demand for dollars. Added to this is a major liquidity factor: the recent increase in the money supply (M2) in the United States and the decline in reverse repo operations, which reflect an implicit easing of financial conditions. This easing is encouraging persistent downward pressure on the greenback, despite a Fed that remains intransigent on rates. The next release of US PCE inflation, scheduled for Friday May 30, could play an important catalytic role: a higher-than-expected figure would strengthen the case for an even firmer Fed, which could offer the USD a temporary technical rebound. Conversely, confirmation of disinflation would fuel bets on future easing and accentuate selling pressure. In short, the US dollar is not only at a technical crossroads, but also a fundamental one, suspended between forthcoming monetary action and deeper signals from the global liquidity market. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. 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TVC:DXY
by Swissquote
Gold 3315 gains and losses are the key 📌 Driving events From the news perspective, data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Tuesday showed that U.S. durable goods orders in April plunged 6.3% month-on-month, with an expected value of -7.8% and a previous value revised from 9.20% to 7.50%. Volatile commercial aircraft orders plunged 51.5% in April after rising in March. Boeing said it received only eight aircraft orders in April, the lowest since May 2024, far lower than the 192 orders in March, the highest since 2023. Affected by the sharp drop in commercial aircraft orders, U.S. durable goods orders fell more than expected in April, with core capital goods orders (excluding aircraft and military hardware) falling 1.3%, the biggest drop since October last year. Under the influence of uncertainty in tariffs and tax policies, corporate investment willingness is weakening. Through the data, it is not difficult to find that American companies have shown obvious caution in assessing the demand outlook and have shifted their focus to cost reduction, which directly reflects the impact of uncertainty brought about by Trump's trade policy. At the same time, the tax legislation being debated in Congress has also put companies on the sidelines, further suppressing the impulse to invest. 📊Comment Analysis After the pullback on Monday this week, the decline accelerated on Tuesday, and the continuous decline came back, changing the strong upward trend of last week 💰Strategy Package In terms of operation, in the short term, long and short operations can be carried out in the range of 3315-3297 US dollars, and the support position of 3285/80 should be paid attention to below; medium and long-term investors can buy on dips and take advantage of geopolitical risks and the trend of weak US dollars to gradually establish long positions. ⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds - Choose the number of lots that matches your funds - Profit is 4-7% of the fund account - Stop loss is 1-3% of the fund account
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Labaron
BTC/USDT Technical Analysis and Trade Idea📉 BTC Pullback or Full Reversal? Let's Break It Down 🔍 Looking at the Bitcoin chart right now, we’re seeing more than just a minor pullback. On the 30-minute timeframe, there’s a clear bearish market structure shift setting in. In my opinion, this isn't a quick dip before continuation — we may be in for a deeper retracement. 🧐 When we overlay NASDAQ (which Bitcoin is often closely correlated with), it becomes even clearer — tech stocks look overextended and are showing signs of a potential pullback. 📉 So here’s the plan: If BTC pulls back into my point of interest, I’ll be watching for a bullish break of structure to consider a long position. Simple, structured, and in line with what the charts are telling us. 🔁💹 ⚠️ As always, this is not financial advice — just sharing how I'm reading the market right now. 💬 What are your thoughts? Are you watching the same levels? Drop a comment below 👇 and let’s talk trade setups! 🚀
by fxtraderanthony
2
NZDUSD: Dips as Investors Await RBNZ Decision on May New Zealand Dollar Dips as Investors Await RBNZ Decision on May 28 The New Zealand dollar fell to around $0.6000 on Tuesday, following a volatile Monday session where it briefly reached its highest level in nearly seven months. Now, all eyes are on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s upcoming policy announcement on Wednesday. The central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates for the sixth time in a row, possibly lowering the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%. Market participants will also pay close attention to the bank’s latest economic forecasts, looking for clues about how China Trade Tariffs could affect future growth. Meanwhile, NZDUSD remains below the Daily Pivot Point, signaling a higher likelihood of further declines ahead of the RBNZ rate decision, as seen in the chart. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Short
by KlejdiCuni
12
Bearish Outlook on AUD/JPY – Watching for Entry After Retrace!I'm currently focused on the AUD/JPY currency pair 📉. We’re seeing a clear, sustained downtrend on the daily timeframe, marked by a recent break of market structure — a key sign that sellers are firmly in control 🐻. At the moment, price appears overextended and is trading directly into a major liquidity pool — specifically, a cluster of sell-side liquidity sitting below previous lows 🧲. I’m watching for a retracement or pullback into a zone of interest. If that happens, I’ll be on the lookout for a bearish break of structure on the lower timeframes to confirm a high-probability short setup 🎯. As always, this is not financial advice, just a look at how I’m approaching the current price action ⚠️.
Short
by fxtraderanthony
2
ETH/USDT At A Premium — What’s Next? Smart Entry Strategy!I'm currently analyzing ETH/USDT 🧠💹 — Ethereum has been in a strong bullish trend, recently pushing into all-time highs 🚀🔝. While the momentum remains intact, price is now trading at a premium 🏷️, and I’m cautious about entering long at these elevated levels ⚠️. In the video, we break down the trend, market structure, and price action with precision 📊🧱. I also explore potential entry scenarios that align with low-risk, high-probability setups 🎯🔍 — ideal for those waiting for the right moment to engage without chasing the move. You'll also get a deep dive into my Trend Continuation Strategy 🔄📈 — a powerful framework for identifying smart entries in trending markets. 🛑 This is not financial advice
Long
by fxtraderanthony
TRX/USDT Trade Setup & Why This Fibonacci Level Matters🚨 TRX/USDT Trade Breakdown 🔍💹 Taking a close look at TRX/USDT (Tron) — the chart is showing a strong, sustained bullish trend on the 4H timeframe 📈🔥. At the moment, I’m waiting for a pullback into equilibrium ⚖️. If we apply a Fibonacci retracement from the current swing low to the recent high, the 50% level stands out as a key area of interest for a potential entry 🎯. 🧠 This zone offers a high-probability area to look for trend continuation, provided price respects it and holds structure. My Fibonacci tool also outlines projected targets, and I walk you through everything in the video 📽️🗺️. 📌 This is NOT financial advice — just my personal analysis and approach. Always do your own research and manage your risk accordingly. ⚠️ 👇 Let me know your thoughts in the comments and don’t forget to like & subscribe for more setups! TRX/USDT Trade Setup & Why This Fibonacci Level Matters
Long
by fxtraderanthony
Bitcoin & Stock Market Rally Together .. My Trade Plan!🚨 Bitcoin Update! 🚨 Taking a look at the BTC chart 🧠📈 — we saw a sharp retracement followed by a strong rally 💥🔥, likely driven by recent tariff policy shifts 🌍📊. Right now, I’m leaning bullish 🐂 — especially with the stock markets also pushing higher 📈💹. But let’s be clear: my bullish bias depends on the stock market holding strong 🛡️📊. I’m keeping an eye out for a pullback to the 61.8% Fibonacci level 🌀 for a potential buy opportunity 💸🚀. ⚠️ This is not financial advice — just sharing my outlook! 👇 Let me know what you think in the comments!
Long
by fxtraderanthony
5