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Wave Analysis

Bitcoin: Wave 4 or Wave goodbye...to this variantIf you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment! Bitcoin Wave 4?: Key Levels & Critical Juncture Bitcoin’s recent price action has put traders on edge, as we continue to push into the deeper reaches of the Wave 4 territory. The market rejected 99-100K, aligning with expectations, but it took a deeper path than my bullish outlook preferred. While I caught the correct direction, this move is now at a critical juncture where bulls need to step up—this is their last chance to hold this count as a probability and regain momentum, IMO. Losing Ground on This Count A clean break above 99K never materialized, reinforcing bearish sentiment and increasing the likelihood of further downside. The bulls have struggled to gain control, and without a strong push, this count risks full invalidation. At this stage, I remain cautious, knowing that sticking to weak counts is a losing game. Key Levels to Watch 🔹 86.6K – Immediate obstacle for bulls to reclaim 📈 🔹 92K – The real test; a reclaim here would suggest bullish intent 🎯 🔹 75K – Next major support if bulls fail to hold structure ⚡ What Comes Next? If this variant is going to stay on the probability list, it has to prove itself now. It was cautiously at the top of the list, but has broken the key levels and ideal price action I was looking for to keep it there. Bitcoin is at a make-or-break moment—will it find strength, or are we heading for a deeper correction? Let me know your thoughts in the comments. 🚀 Trade safe, trade smart, trade clarity.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CryptoKnee
Gold Market Analysis & Trading Strategy for TodayHello traders! Let’s analyze gold’s price movement and build a strategy for today. OANDA:XAUUSD is experiencing a slight pullback, currently trading at $2,910 in the early trading hours. The precious metal remains stable within a descending parallel channel on the 1-hour chart, indicating short-term bearish momentum. This correction aligns with declines in stocks and Bitcoin, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment in the market. However, unlike other assets, gold has found support at lower levels, suggesting that buyers are stepping in to stabilize the market. While gold is retracing, it remains relatively stable compared to other assets. If buyers continue defending key levels (trendline boundaries), we could see a short-term recovery attempt. Additionally, investors are awaiting the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which is set to be published on Friday. This data could have a significant impact on gold’s direction.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Bullback_FX
EUR/USD Under Pressure: Bearish Momentum StrengthensEUR/USD remains under pressure, trading below 1.0500 during Thursday’s session. The pair is affected by the U.S. dollar's continued recovery, driven by conflicting statements from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding tariffs. This has prevented EUR/USD from rising and has kept it capped below the 1.052 resistance, marked by two significant peaks. In the short term, EUR/USD is still receiving support from buyers, with 1.046 acting as a key defense level. However, the bullish momentum remains uncertain, as the pair is fluctuating around EMA 34 and 89, showing signs of confluence. If the support level is broken, we may look for lower selling targets. Do you think FX:EURUSD will break through this support level?
by Bullback_FX
GBP/USD – Potential Pullback or Breakout?Hello traders! Today, let's analyze the GBP/USD 4H chart and see how this pair is moving. Currently, GBP/USD remains in a steady uptrend within a well-defined parallel channel. The pair is trading around 1.2670, staying above EMA 34 and 89, indicating that buyers are still in control. However, an important factor to watch is that GBP/USD is approaching the upper resistance of the channel, which could lead to a short-term pullback before resuming its upward momentum. If the price tests the channel’s upper boundary and shows signs of rejection, we could expect a corrective move toward the 1.2570 support zone. This would be a key area to watch for potential buying interest. If buyers successfully defend this level, it could offer a great buying opportunity to ride the trend higher. On the flip side, if GBP/USD breaks and closes above the resistance zone, it could signal a strong breakout, opening the door for a move toward new highs. 📌 Trading Strategy Ideas: 🔹 Short-term Sell: Look for a rejection at resistance with bearish signals. 🔹 Trend-Following Buy: Consider buying if price pulls back to key support and shows bullish momentum. Do you agree with this analysis? Drop your thoughts in the comments below!
Short
by Bullback_FX
BABA in a falling wedge (NEW)BABA stock has been in a long-term downtrend. We're expecting the price to continue droping as it looks like it got rejected from the downsloping resistance line on the weekly timeframe. What we can see on the chart is a pattern called a falling wedge. Most likely the price will revisit $60 or lower but eventually we expect the breakout in Q2 or Q3 2023. How to trade: Enter long position if/when we get a breakout with a volume increase. Final target and the take profit level are shown on the chart. Good luck
NYSE:BABALong
by vf_investment
4
BABA - ready for a trend reversalhi traders, Let's have a look at the BABA chart on the 1D time frame. After a massive rally, BABA experienced a deep pullback, but it looks like it might be time to load up on BABA again. BABA is still in our buy zone but we're expecting the trend reversal soon. Probably US market will experience some sort of pullback in its bull market and in this period we're expecting China market to have a nice recovery. Our targets for BABA: Target 1: 107 $ Target 2: 117$ We're expecting other Chinese stocks to perform well too . Check NIO stock here: Good luck
NYSE:BABALong
by vf_investment
10
NEARUSD 28.5RBig liquidations in the crypto markets over the last 48hrs with sentiment turning very bearish. But from a technical pov does this look bearish to you? The Elliot Wave correctional waves couldn’t be any clearer with beautiful symmetry. The market already tested deep into the demand zone and has shown some strength to suggest it’s a worth a go in my view for a long trade here. Trade probability 5/10 Risk to reward 9/10 Overall rating 7/10 1:28.5 Risk to Reward ratio
CRYPTO:NEARUSDLong
by TipsOfPips
MAPFRE: Everything points to new highs!! Pay attention!! On February 12, Mapfre presented its income statement, beating expectations!!. Premiums will grow solidly in 2024 (+6.6% at constant exchange rates) to €28,122M, beating expectations. The biggest surprise comes from the margins side. The Non-Life combined ratio stands at 94.4% (vs 97.2% in 2023), despite the fact that pressure on margins persists in the auto segment. It drives the technical result which, together with the financial result, more than offsets the fall in the Life branch result. Overall, the BNA rebounds to €902M (+30%; vs €888M expected). In short, the results beat our expectations. --> What does the technical aspect look like? As you can see in the graph, the TREND and STRENGTH are clearly bullish (Bull) in their main time frames (DAILY and H4), therefore, we will only look for long positions. --> When is the best way to enter long positions? Once we have TREND and STRENGTH aligned in DAILY and H4, we go down to H1 or M30 time frame to wait for a pullback and enter in the direction of the H4 trend, in this case, bullish (Bull), therefore we go LONG. If we look at the graph in H1, the FORCE turned bullish (Bull) on February 25 and it was from that point when the bullish momentum began. Now IT IS MAKING A SMALL PULLBACK which gives us the opportunity to enter long positions if the pullback does not break key support zones. --> How do you know when a pullback ends? There are several techniques such as using an indicator, moving average crossovers, Fibonacci retracements... For example, I like the price to retrace at least 50% and wait for the price to break previous highs to enter long. Another option that is also used a lot is to enter long when it makes a Fibonacci retracement of 50% or 61.8% without waiting for the retracement to end, in this way the entry price is lower, but we have the risk that the retracement does not end and the Stop Loss is triggered. -------------------------------------- Strategy to follow: ENTRY: We will open 2 long positions if the H1 candle closes above its previous highs at 2.736 POSITION 1 (TP1): We close the first position in the 2.8 (+2.8%) zone --> Stop Loss at 2.67 (-2.5%). POSITION 2 (TP2): We open a Trailing Stop type position. --> Initial dynamic Stop Loss at (-2.5%) (coinciding with the 899 of position 1). --> We modify the dynamic Stop Loss to (-1%) when the price reaches TP1 (2.8). ------------------------------------------- SET UP EXPLANATIONS *** How do we know which 2 long positions to open? Let's take an example: If we want to invest 2,000 euros in the stock, what we do is divide that amount by 2, and instead of opening 1 position of 2,000, we will open 2 positions of 1,000 each. *** What is a Trailing Stop? A Trailing Stop allows a trade to continue gaining value when the market price moves in a favorable direction, but automatically closes the trade if the market price suddenly moves in an unfavorable direction by a certain distance. That certain distance is the dynamic Stop Loss. -->Example: If the dynamic Stop Loss is at -1%, it means that if the price drops by -1%, the position will be closed. If the price rises, the Stop Loss also rises to maintain that -1% in the rises, therefore, the risk is increasingly lower until the position becomes profitable. In this way, very solid and stable price trends can be taken advantage of, maximizing profits.
BME:MAPLong
by jmesado
SPX ready for the correctionhi traders, This is probably not what most traders want to see but we must be realistic. The monthly close is upon us and it's not gonna be a bullish close. A lot of selling pressure and it may be just the beginning. A 13 % correction on SPX is more than likely in my opinion. If the price loses the upsloping support, we will see the mark-down pretty soon. Stoch RSI suggests that the bears are taking control. My target for SPX is between 5200 and 5000. Get ready to buy cheap stocks and cheap crypto!
SP:SPXShort
by vf_investment
NASDAQ 100 Feb 27th Below are some general, educational ideas on how traders often approach markets under conditions like these. This is not financial advice—simply a high‐level look at potential strategies, risk‐management considerations, and scenarios based on the previous technical report. Always do your own due diligence and consider professional advice for your specific situation. 1. Short‐Term “Oversold Bounce” Play • Rationale: On the Daily and 4H charts, the RSI/Stochastics and Bollinger Bands all suggest near‐term oversold conditions. When a market is oversold, a relief bounce often occurs—even within a downtrend. • Possible Approach: 1. Entry: Some traders will look for intraday bullish signals (a strong reversal candle, bullish divergence on lower timeframes, or a break/retest of minor resistance) around the 20,200–20,500 zone. 2. Targets: Potential short‐term rebound levels near: • 21,000 (initial pivot/confluence of 4H Fib & round number) • 21,300–21,400 (Daily Ichimoku or 4H cloud base, stronger overhead supply) 3. Stop‐Loss / Invalidation: • Placed below the recent swing low (~20,500) or below the 200‐day SMA (~20,264). If price definitively breaks those on a closing basis, it can signal that the bounce attempt is failing. • Risk: If the market continues sharply lower, oversold can remain oversold. A deeper flush is possible if we lose key supports. 2. “Sell the Rally” Within a Short‐Term Downtrend • Rationale: The Daily and 4H structures are in a confirmed short‐term downtrend (lower highs/lower lows). Traders who believe the market has further to fall might look to short near overhead resistance. • Possible Approach: 1. Entry: Wait for a bounce into known resistance or Fib retracement zones on the 4H or Daily chart: • ~21,000–21,100 (minor) • ~21,300–21,400 (major supply area / daily cloud) 2. Confirmation: Look for bearish candlestick patterns, a failed retest, or negative divergences on short timeframes to signal rally exhaustion. 3. Targets: Could be fresh lows below ~20,500 or deeper daily/weekly support at ~19,500–20,000. 4. Stop‐Loss / Invalidation: A sustained close above the daily Ichimoku cloud or prior pivot highs (~21,400–21,500) would indicate the short‐term trend shift might be reversing back bullish. • Risk: A strong short‐covering rally can quickly stop out short positions if the broader weekly uptrend reasserts itself. 3. Longer‐Term Positioning Near Key Weekly Support • Rationale: The monthly and weekly charts remain in a long‐term uptrend. Some position traders/investors view pullbacks into major weekly levels as potential accumulation zones. • Possible Approach: 1. Key Level: ~19,500–19,600 is the last major weekly swing low. If price ever re‐tests that zone, it’s a critical decision area. 2. Confirmation: Wait for a weekly bullish reversal candle (e.g., a hammer, bullish engulfing) or a break back above the 10‐week SMA. 3. Stop‐Loss / Invalidation: A weekly close below ~19,500 could signal a deeper structural breakdown. 4. Targets: Over the longer horizon, a rebound from weekly support might aim for retests of all‐time highs or upper monthly fib extensions (e.g., 24,000+). • Risk: If the weekly uptrend fails and breaks below ~19,500, it can cascade into a more pronounced corrective phase. 4. Hedge or Manage Existing Long Positions • Rationale: If you’ve been holding longer‐term bullish positions, you might want to hedge part of it during a short‐term downswing. • Possible Approach: • Options: Buying puts or put spreads to limit downside risk or selling covered calls to collect premium if you expect sideways to down movement. • Futures: Small short futures/CFD positions to offset some exposure. • Risk: Over‐hedging can cut into upside gains if the market rebounds strongly. 5. Patience / Sidelines • Rationale: If the technical picture is uncertain—and you don’t have a strong directional edge—sitting on the sidelines and observing is a perfectly valid play. You can wait for more clarity or for the market to confirm a reversal/breakdown before committing capital. • Risk: Missing out on a sudden reversal or failing to catch the next leg if it rebounds quickly. But if uncertainty is high, waiting for a clearer signal can preserve capital. General Guidelines & Risk Management 1. Align With Your Timeframe: • Short‐term scalps (4H or lower) require tight stops and nimble trading. • Swing trades might look to daily/weekly structure for bigger moves. 2. Watch Volatility: • ATR on daily/4H has risen. Expect larger intraday swings; position size accordingly. 3. Use Stop‐Losses: • The market has shown it can move quickly in either direction lately. Protective stops or mental exit levels are crucial. 4. Monitor Macro Drivers: • Economic data, interest rate shifts, or major earnings releases can override technical signals short term. 5. Be Prepared for Whipsaw: • When multiple timeframes conflict (monthly/weekly bullish vs. daily/4H bearish), the market can give false breaks or frequent direction changes. Disclaimer: This outline is for educational purposes only, reflecting common approaches traders might take. It does not constitute financial advice. Always consider your own objectives, risk tolerance, and potentially consult a financial professional when making investment decisions.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by EliteMarketAnalysis
$RIOT / HourlyNASDAQ:RIOT has achieved the cluster of anticipated Fib targets on its differing time frames. But the market selloff in last hour today, and exceeding the targets would suggest to analyzing the wave structure of the current decline in hourly frame as well. So as depicted on the chart below, with respect to the wave structure in a barrier triangle as the correction in wave (b) properly reveals a five-wave impulse on the following decline as wave (c) which now its 5th wave in a final decline would likely remain in the late stage. The final Fib target >> 8.08 #CryptoStocks #RIOT #BTCMining #Bitcoin #BTC
NASDAQ:RIOT
by ElliottChart
2