Get started

Wave Analysis

Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 1, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 1, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🇺🇸 Q1 GDP Contraction Raises Recession Fears The U.S. economy shrank for the first time in three years, down 0.3% in Q1. Weaker government spending and a rise in imports ahead of Trump’s tariff policies are weighing on growth outlook. 📈 Big Tech Lifts the Market Strong earnings from Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) and Meta ( NASDAQ:META ) have boosted sentiment. Meta’s revenue guidance and capex surge point to aggressive growth positioning in AI and infrastructure. 🏛️ Treasury Refunding Outlook in Focus Markets are watching the quarterly refunding announcement for clues on upcoming bond issuance. This could influence rate volatility as the Treasury balances deficits and market demand. 🌐 Risk-On Mood Despite Macro Headwinds Global stocks notched a 4-week high as traders bet on resilient earnings and central bank policy steadiness, even as U.S. macro data softens. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Thursday, May 1: 📈 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) Tracks new unemployment filings – a key gauge of near-term labor market stress. 📈 Continuing Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) Measures ongoing unemployment benefit recipients, reflecting persistent joblessness. 🏗️ Construction Spending (10:00 AM ET) Reports monthly change in total construction outlays — a direct measure of real economy investment. 🏭 ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM ET) Provides a snapshot of U.S. factory activity. Readings below 50 suggest contraction. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Bank Nifty Levels for 02/05/20251. Trend Identification: 15M - Bearish 1H - Bearish 4H - Bullish D - Bullish 2. Support & Resistance: Support - 54176 ( 1H & 4H ), 51894 Resistance - 55957 3. Implication : Bank Nifty is Bearish on 15m and 1h but bullish on 4h and d timeframe. So 54176 is a key level. Because 4h is bullish market may bounce from 54176. If 54176 breaks then Target will be 51894. Also watch for the level 55957, if market opens gap up or go up in the morning then market can reverse from this level. If price close above this level, then maybe we see bulls in action.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by suhas316
The downfall of METAMETA Current Price: $465.20 1-Month Move: +4.8% (from $443.90) 1-Year Move: +35.7% (from $342.80) Year High/Low: $527.30/$328.50 Technicals: RSI: ~67.4 (nearing overbought) Above 20-day MA, slightly below 50-day MA, above 200-day MA (short-term rally in a longer uptrend) Options Data: IV Rank: 85th percentile (high premiums) Put/Call Ratio: 1.15 (bearish skew) Max Pain: $450.00 High OI: $460 puts, $470 calls Historical & Model Insights Historical Move: META averages ~14.5% post-earnings, with 5/12 quarters showing downside. IV Crush: Expect 30–40% IV drop post-earnings, so time exits carefully. Outlier: Llama/Meta sees bullish potential from call activity and AI-driven ad growth, but bearish signals dominate. Trade Setup Strategy: Single-leg, naked put (bearish, defined risk) Instrument: META Direction: PUT Strike: $460.00 (premium $0.72, fits $0.50–$1.00 target band) Expiry: 2025-05-02 (first weekly post-earnings) Entry Price: $0.72 Entry Timing: Pre-earnings close (2025-05-01) Profit Target: $1.44 (~100% gain) Stop Loss: $0.36 (~50% loss) Confidence: 65% Expected Move: ±$68.20 (~14.66%)
NShort
by quantsignals
May 1, 2025 - XAUUSD GOLD Analysis and Potential OpportunitySummary: Intraday sentiment remains bearish, so the base strategy is to sell on resistance pullbacks. Long positions should only be considered at key levels with good risk-reward setups. Preserve capital and always use Stop Losses. Key Levels to Watch: 3268: Resistance 3260: Key intraday resistance 3245: Resistance 3233: Support 3210–3220: Support / volume accumulation zone 3200: Psychological round number 3187–3193: Key support zone Short-Term (15m) Trading Strategy: For Shorts: Enter a SELL if price breaks below 3239. → Watch 3236, then 3233, 3227, and 3220. For Longs (RISKY): Enter a BUY only if price holds above 3246. → First target 3248, then 3250, 3252, and 3260. 👉 If my insights have been helpful to you, or if you traded based on my ideas, please consider giving a like — it’s a great encouragement for me! Thanks for your support! Disclaimer: This is my personal opinion and not financial advice. Please manage your risk accordingly.
O
by Ombabibi
NASdaq_ Bullish trendline check and breakoutToday the Nasdaq made a Bullish trendline check and breakout to the up-side. Looks to be a sustainable rally. Also the Ichimoku is breaking out on the daily. If you have hedge positions this the potential BULL rally you might need to manage those position through. Seems we are lining up for good news, Bullish narrative: Ukraine mineral deal, May 06-07 interest rate cut, trade deals with India, Japan, Italy Australia, Mexico, Russian Ukraine peace deal. after that who knows
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by wolffarchitecture
2
Chart Pattern Analysis Of Bitcoin. The recent several candles is a consolidation along the resistance. K3 nearly close below the uptrend line. So, the possibility of the following candles fall to test the support increased. If K4 or the following candles close below K3, It will verify the expectations, And I will try to buy it at 0.382-0.5fib area. On the other hand, If K4 or the following candles close upon K1, Another bull run will start here to test 97-99K area. Long-88.8K/Target-102K/Stop-86.8K Long-95.7K/Target-97K/Stop-94.7K
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by nothingchangehere
Wheat Poised for a Seasonal Breakout – Key TechnicalsWheat Futures Update – Focus: Spring Setup + Multi-Timeframe Convergence 📈 RSI RSI on both 1H and 4H charts bounced from oversold in March and continues to rise. This shows improving momentum with no signs of overbought stress yet. Bullish divergence at the lows confirms the current rebound. ⚡️ Momentum MACD and short-term oscillators have flipped up after a corrective dip. Momentum made a higher low alongside price, confirming a possible trend shift. The ADX is low but ticking up, hinting at a trend reawakening. 🔊 Volume Big volume spikes occurred during March’s capitulation and early April’s rally — signs of accumulation. Pullbacks have had weaker volume, a bullish signal. A breakout above $5.55–$5.60 on rising volume would confirm a larger rally. 🕯 Candlesticks & Patterns Bullish reversal candles formed at $5.17 and $5.25. Price is carving out higher lows and forming a falling wedge — bullish if price breaks out above $5.60. Support remains firm in the $5.20–$5.25 zone. 📊 Moving Averages Short-term MAs (like 20 and 50 on the 1H) are curling up, while the 4H 50 MA is about to challenge the 200 MA. A golden cross could emerge if prices stay firm. We’re in a trend transition zone — watching for confirmation. 🌊 Elliott Wave The March low likely marked the end of a 5-wave downtrend, and wheat may now be in the early stages of a new 5-wave uptrend. The rally to $5.69 counts as Wave 1, the dip to $5.25 as Wave 2. If valid, Wave 3 could target $6.00–$6.50. ⏳ Cycles 2024 likely marked the bottom of the 8-year wheat cycle. Shorter cycles suggest a rally into late Q2 or early Q3 is probable. Cycle timing aligns with seasonal tailwinds for May–June. 📅 Seasonality Wheat tends to rally from April through June. We’re now entering the strongest seasonal window, historically associated with weather-driven price spikes. The recent pullback looks like a textbook seasonal buy. 📉 COT Positioning Funds are still near record net short, while commercials (farmers, users) are heavily long — a classic contrarian bullish setup. Any positive catalyst could ignite a major short-covering rally. Sentiment remains max bearish, which is often bullish. 🌽 Wheat vs. Corn vs. Soybeans Wheat offers the best risk/reward setup now. It’s technically basing with signs of reversal and has the most room to rally. Corn and soybeans look healthy too, but wheat is the laggard with the most explosive upside if it catches up. 🧮 Summary of Indicators (1H + 4H) RSI: Rising ✅ Converging Momentum (MACD): Turning up ✅ Converging Volume: Accumulating ✅ Converging Candlesticks: Bullish ✅ Converging Moving Averages: Mixed ⚠️ Diverging Elliott Wave: Uptrend start ✅ Converging Cycles: Bullish phase ✅ Converging Seasonality: Spring rally ✅ Converging COT Positioning: Contrarian ✅ Bullish 🚨 Invalidates Bullish Setup If: Price breaks below $5.17 Lower high forms under $5.50 and breaks $5.25 Bearish fundamental shock (e.g., supply surge) Seasonality fails to lift price by June 📌 Trading Plan Short-Term: Buy dips $5.25–$5.35 or break above $5.60. Target $5.70–$6.00. Stop below $5.17. Medium-Term: Accumulate $5.20–$5.40. Target $6.00–$6.50 into summer. Stop below $5.00. Long-Term: Buy and hold in low $5s. Target $7–$8+ over 6–18 months. Stop < $4.80 or manage with small size.
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by AZ-Technical
2025-04-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Still favoring doing a lower high print but we are close enough to 23000 that market can go higher. No more obvious resistance. A big maybe is the bear gap up to 23050 but that’s a gamble I am not willing to take. Today should have marked the start of the reversal with the huge bear spike but the bull reversal was beyond my comprehension. Can turn bear only below 22300 but I don’t need to long this either. Will only look for shorts on this, that’s why it’s full bear mode from here on. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 21000 - 24000 bull case: Bulls printed a higher April high and closed the month at the highs, which is a strong buy signal going into Friday and next week. The bull trend line from 19000 is valid until broken but the move up is so climactic and in a tight channel, that it’s tough to buy the highs but until bears trap late bulls and get follow-through after a sell spike, bulls are in BTFD mode and it continues to be profitable. Invalidation is below 21300. bear case: Bears don’t have much. Today could have been the final flag and we top out soon but we will only know once we drop below 22300 and continue down. For me this is a clear 3 legs up now and I have zero interest in buying up here. Big economies are most likely already in recessions and I think Q1 2025 will be the last decent quarter this year and from here on it’s downhill. Hard. Next big bucks will be made to the down side. Invalidation is above 23100. short term: Neutral. Could do 23000 or not. Today was end of month and I will wait and see what the us markets do tomorrow. Dax will be closed. Expecting a huge reversal any day now. medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Bear trend is ongoing but for now I still think 19500 and below is an amazing buy if you can hold for years. Things will have to turn really bad for this market to find acceptance below the bull trend line from the covid lows and right now this trade war is just front running. Markets were not priced for risk 3 weeks ago but this drop was too much too fast. My bearish targets for this year are met and with the current environment I will not call for lower prices than 19000. If the trade war turns real bad, yeah sure but for now it’s not. trade of the day: Selling 22700, decent double top and was good for 300 points down. Had to be mentally flexible and not try to hold short while market did a v-reversal. I fought it too much today.
E
by priceactiontds
Watch This Wedge! AUDNZD Primed for Upside PushThe AUDNZD pair forms a falling wedge pattern, a bullish reversal formation that typically occurs after a downtrend. The price action is being squeezed between a descending resistance line and a descending support line, creating a narrowing range. The market is now attempting to break out of the wedge, with the current price testing the resistance line. A breakout and close above this trendline would signal bullish strength and could lead to a reversal of the recent downtrend. Targets: TP1: 1.07605 TP2: 1.07922 Stop Loss: Below the recent low at 1.06542
by Money_Dictators
CAD/JPY Rally Could Fade Near Resistance – Watch for ShortsThe CAD/JPY pair is currently trading within a well-defined descending trendline. Multiple rejections are visible around the 108.300, 105.864, 105.434, and 105.044 levels, confirming strong bearish control over the medium term. Price has recently bounced from a critical horizontal support near 101.246, forming a short-term bullish move toward the descending trendline. We are now approaching a confluence zone near the 103.800–104.000 area, where the downtrend line intersects. This zone is a potential supply area and could act as a strong resistance. Trade Idea: Sell Setup Near Trendline (103.800–104.000) Target: 102.532, 101.250 Invalidation: Break and close above 104.200
by Money_Dictators
GOLD → Consolidation. Traders are waiting for news...FX:XAUUSD remains in consolidation at 3370-3270. Traders are in no hurry to take any action, as there is a lot of important news ahead. Let's take a closer look at the situation... On Wednesday, gold is trading lower, remaining in a sideways range as traders await the release of US GDP data for the first quarter. A sharp slowdown in growth is expected, and a possible contraction in the economy could increase bets on a Fed rate cut and support gold. Meanwhile, the dollar is holding steady amid tariff news and expectations for key employment and inflation data. A retest of the range support is forming. The approach is quite sharp, and the pre-breakout potential has been exhausted. A false breakout of support could trigger an upward correction. Support levels: 3270, 3245 Resistance levels: 3314, 3329, 3352 If the dollar continues to fall after the news, this could support gold and the price could continue to trade between 3370 and 3270. Unpredictable news could trigger a breakout and a fall. Best regards, R. Linda!
FShort
by RLinda
12
RITES for Swing and Short Positional viewAs we can see H3 chart already has created reversal CHoCH which is a good signal of bullish view. After inducement (X) taken out candles have created M15 Ch and price is trading in the discount zone (<Rs 225/-) of previous impulsive leg (the low & high swing points already mentioned on the chart with yellow dot) So, we can buy at the demand zone or at any price level below Rs 225/-and can hold up to 1-2 months for 20-25% return.
NLong
by Parthasarathi_Dey