Bitcoin & Macro Analysis fo 2025From previous analysis, BTC on target and Hit Fibonacci Extension 1.272 at $108.000
And rejected from this area
For now, BTC need pullback before continuing rally
You can see pullback area at :
- Fibonacci Retracement 0.236
- Fibonacci Retracement 0.386
- Fibonacci Retracement 0.5
Be cautious with your decisions, especially for 2025 , as the Dec 2024 Summary of Economic Projections release has impacted the market. Macro economic conditions are solid, but the Fed's decision left the market disappointed.
After release Summary of Economic Projections Dec 18 FOMC, market was disappointed since The Fed's forecast cut rates only 2x or maybe just 1x (3.9) instead of 4x as SEP projected in September (3.4).
Wave Analysis
Facebook ($META) - Potential Long Setup HereOverview:
META Platforms Inc. has been at the forefront of reshaping digital interaction through its investments in the metaverse, artificial intelligence, and its robust ad-tech ecosystem.
The recent pullback in price offers a potential buying opportunity, backed by key technical levels and promising fundamentals.
Fundamental Analysis:
- Metaverse Investment & AI Push
META's heavy investment in Reality Labs has been a drag on profitability but signals long-term commitment to innovation. Additionally, META has been leveraging AI to optimize its ad delivery systems, boosting revenue from its core business.
- Ad Revenue Growth
With improving global macroeconomic conditions and advertisers adapting to new privacy rules (post-IDFA), META's ad revenue is expected to maintain steady growth. The upcoming Q4 earnings will be pivotal in assessing this trend.
- Cost Optimization
META’s cost-cutting measures, including its recent layoffs, show commitment to operational efficiency, which could improve margins moving forward.
Macro Trends:
- Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve’s dovish stance on interest rates could positively impact growth stocks like META, providing tailwinds to its valuation.
Consumer Behavior: With digital ad spending expected to grow in 2024, META remains a beneficiary of the increasing shift to online advertising.
Technical Analysis:
Key Levels:
- Buy Zone: $580.39 - $583.25 (Fibonacci 0.618 - 0.65 retracement). This area has confluence with a prior structural pivot and could act as strong support.
- Stop-Loss: $574.65 (below the critical swing low).
Targets:
- Target 1: $604.29 (Fibonacci 0.382 retracement).
- Target 2: $659.40 (Fibonacci -0.236 extension).
Wave Count:
The Elliott Wave structure suggests that META may be completing a corrective wave (WXY). A reversal in the blue "Buy Zone" could signal the start of a new impulsive wave.
Momentum Indicators:
Elder Impulse System shows bearish momentum waning, hinting at a potential reversal. RSI (not shown) is also approaching oversold territory, supporting a bounce scenario.
Trade Plan:
- Entry: $583.25
- Stop-Loss: $574.65
Targets:
- Target 1: $604.29
- Target 2: $659.40
Conclusion:
META offers a compelling buy opportunity as it consolidates near strong support levels. With its focus on metaverse innovation, AI, and cost optimization, coupled with improving macro conditions, META could see significant upside.
However, investors should watch Q4 earnings closely and remain mindful of risks associated with metaverse-related expenditures.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making trading decisions.
#COW: Unlocking the Power of Fair TradingDescription:
This trading idea highlights COW (CoW Protocol), a decentralized trading platform that focuses on batch auctions to minimize slippage and maximize efficiency for traders. COW aims to revolutionize the decentralized finance (DeFi) space by providing fair, gas-efficient, and transparent trading solutions. With its emphasis on reducing front-running and ensuring equitable trading experiences, COW has garnered attention as a game-changer in the DeFi ecosystem. Its innovative approach to order execution and cost-saving features makes it a compelling choice for those seeking to engage in decentralized trading platforms.
That said, cryptocurrency markets are inherently volatile, and various factors, including regulatory changes, macroeconomic trends, and technological advancements, can significantly impact the price of assets like COW. Caution and strategic planning are essential when trading or investing in such assets.
Disclaimer:
This trading idea is provided for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Cryptocurrencies like COW carry significant risk, including the potential for complete loss of capital. Always perform thorough research, evaluate your financial situation, and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
My Best analysis The chart you've provided shows a bearish trend on the 4-hour timeframe for Bitcoin (BTC/USD). It highlights key resistance and support zones:
Resistance levels: Around 102,759, 100,958, and 99,376.
Support level: Price is approaching 94,000.
If the price fails to reclaim the resistance levels, the bearish momentum might continue. Ensure you manage risks effectively and follow your trading plan.
Let me know if you want this analysis rephrased for TradingView or need further insights!
Lucid Group’s Epic Comeback: A Journey Back to Glory?Lucid Group (LCID) has experienced a steep decline since its historic peak on 15th November 2021, when it reached approximately $57 per share. The downtrend, spanning over two years, is best interpreted as a classic ABC corrective structure based on Elliott Wave Theory. However, recent technical signals suggest this prolonged bearish phase may have concluded with the low of $1.93.
Elliott Wave Analysis of Lucid Group
The ABC correction highlights a significant retracement, with the C-wave marking the final stage of this bearish structure. The $1.93 low could represent the termination of Wave C, potentially setting the stage for a robust recovery. If this analysis holds, Lucid Group could be poised for a sharp reversal, with an initial target of $13 and a long-term potential to reclaim $60.
Fibonacci and Confluence Zones
From a technical perspective, the $1.93 level aligns with key Fibonacci extensions, reinforcing its validity as a critical support. This confluence supports the idea that the correction is complete, paving the way for an impulsive upward move.
Fundamental Outlook
While the technical setup is promising, Lucid’s fundamentals will also play a crucial role in its recovery. As a leading electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer, Lucid is well-positioned in a burgeoning market. Its innovative designs and expanding global footprint make it a company to watch as the EV sector continues to grow.
Risk Management and Key Levels
Despite the bullish outlook, risk management remains vital. If the $1.93 level is breached, it would invalidate this scenario, signalling further downside risk. For now, this serves as the critical stop-loss level for any bullish positions.
Final Thoughts
Lucid Group is at a critical juncture. After a prolonged corrective phase, the stock appears ready to rebound, with technical indicators pointing to significant upside potential. Targets of $13 in the short term and $60 in the long term provide compelling opportunities for investors.
For traders looking to capitalise on Lucid’s recovery, close attention to key support and resistance levels will be essential. The EV giant may just be gearing up for an electrifying comeback.
MSTX: The Coiled SpringFollowing MSTX's descent to $60, technical indicators are painting a picture that screams opportunity.
Daily Chart:
Weekly Chart:
The CM_Ult_MaCD has bottomed out completely, and if you've traded long enough, you know what that means - upward momentum is coming, and it's coming fast.
The setup is textbook perfect. We're seeing the Stochastic oscillator flirting with oversold territory, and anyone who's been in this game knows that's when you want to position yourself. It's not just about timing - it's about recognizing the patterns that repeat themselves.
What's really getting my attention is the SQZMOM_LB indicator. Those VIX spikes we're seeing aren't random noise - they're telling us a squeeze is brewing. When this pressure cooker blows, we could see rapid upside movement that'll catch the shorts off guard.
Speaking of shorts, they've shown their hand at the $60 VWAP level. Both daily and weekly charts confirm this sweet spot, and I'm seeing all the signs of a short sweep setting up. This is exactly the kind of technical confluence that precedes significant moves.
I'm anticipating MSTX to first reclaim the $100 level, with potential to test previous highs around $175-200. The short squeeze, when it triggers, could accelerate this movement significantly. Smart money will be watching these levels closely.
The key here is patience.
Let the technicals confirm what we're seeing. When that squeeze triggers - and it will - you'll want to be positioned ahead of the crowd.
Stay tuned for updates as this play develops.
$SOL deep deeper deepest!CRYPTOCAP:SOL is back in his channel. Sol has been corrected very deeply. I hope that Sol will first test and break the supply zone and then move on to the next one for a retest outside its trend for a retest on top of the trend and demand zone. As soon as that pattern is complete, we head to the ATH. First let's test and break that supply zone.
$DOGE has gone deepCRYPTOCAP:DOGE is experiencing a major correction and as a fairly large coin with a large following, it has brought a lot of stress with it.
For now the correction has gone well, slightly deeper than I initially thought. But when I look at the repeat of 2020/21, it matches just fine.
This would mean that we can expect a good run with CRYPTOCAP:DOGE and that there is still a lot of potential here.
It is currently well below its trend and we first have to see whether it can catch up more than the other currencies.
I have a lot of hope for CRYPTOCAP:DOGE and hope that it won't break my confidence and that we can make good progress. But for now we'll keep an eye on it and we have to get back into the trend.
Be kind to the world and each other!
Thyssen Krupp possible wave 4 in processIf the next low is higher than wave 1 or A, it means we have a probable wave 4 in process. Let's see if there is a reaccumulation.
Even if this hypothesis fails, the stock is still cheap.
The company is not making money, but why should we care about it? LOL. I like the stock.
Germany is in the edge of a possible recession, so the economic cycle is not helping here.
So, not many positive things, but that's why it's cheap now. If there wasn't any recession fears and the company would be making a lot of money, we wouldn't see these prices.
updateI'm sorry, wave counting is a very difficult task and technical analysis is generally associated with mistakes.
The detection of wave 4 was wrong. We were at the end of wave 2. We are forming wave 3. Moving to the yellow box.
We are at the beginning of wave 5. Movement up to 10 dollars is available.
$BTC recoveringMARKETSCOM:BITCOIN has recovered nicely. For now I think it is especially important that we really break the upcoming suply zone and retest it at the latest. In that case we are back in the trend and we have completely completed our correction.
For now it looks good, but I remain slightly skeptical. Especially with a possible government shutdown. Although I just read the latest news that this will not happen.
Hopefully this will bring some more certainty back to the market and that we will have a nice Christmas run in return.
For now the supply has to become a demand sin and we are back on the right side.
Be kind to the world and each other!
Gold (XAUUSD) Potential Rebound from Support - Buy SetupAnalysis:
Support Zone:
Price is currently testing the lower support trendline of the ascending channel (around 2,636 USD).
This level has acted as strong support previously, making it a potential rebound point.
Moving Averages (EMA 50 and EMA 200):
Price is below both the 50 EMA (orange) and the 200 EMA (green), suggesting a short-term bearish trend.
However, a bounce from support could push price back to test these levels as resistance.
RSI Indicator:
The 7-period RSI is at 29.52, indicating oversold conditions.
This suggests a possible reversal or price rebound in the near term.
Trade Setup:
Entry (Buy):
Enter near 2,636 - 2,640 USD if price shows a bullish reaction (e.g., bullish candle or reversal signal).
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 2,665 USD (near 50 EMA).
TP2: 2,678 - 2,680 USD (near 200 EMA).
TP3: 2,733 USD (upper channel resistance).
Stop Loss:
Place a stop loss below the ascending channel support at 2,615 USD to limit risk.
📊 "Trade what you see, not what you think!"
Good luck, and manage your risk wisely! 🚀 OANDA:XAUUSD
Bitcoin: Double Zigzag and a Potential Bullish Breakout?Currently, I am marking Bitcoin’s movement as a correction in the form of a double Zigzag (WXY). However, Bitcoin often exhibits the ability to extend waves without altering the broader structure...and we can fall further down.
The bullish scenario will take precedence if the price breaks above Wave X at 102,740. That is, of course, unless the market transitions into a larger triangle pattern, which could extend the corrective phase for a while longer.
VELO While the market is currently experiencing a correction, I believe Velo will reach the 4 cent mark and potentially go even higher. However, my end goal for Velo, and generally for my entire portfolio, is to sell and rotate into existing assets if Velo hits above 15 cents while other assets remain stagnant.
I have a rule that I usually adhere to: my 100% is typically 80%, with the remaining 20% reserved for unexpected gains beyond my expectations.
Regarding the broader market cycle, I have concerns that this cycle might mirror 2017. Back then, BTC reached an all-time high (ATH) and shortly after, in December 2017, altcoins surged dramatically through January 2018.
I feel this way for two reasons:
BTC is at an ATH similar to 2017.
Trump has stated his objective to have a BTC reserve of 1 million. Do you think they will buy the majority of the 1 million at the current price, or will they tank the market, which is already at a peak in many sectors?