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Wave Analysis

Rising from the Ashes: EURO's Path to RecoveryGood day traders, Trust we all profited from the FOMC report of yesterday. Please take a moment to go through my outlook and expectation on Euro in the coming weeks into the new year. Overview EUR/USD appears to be rebounding after a sharp decline triggered by yesterday's FOMC report, where the FED delivered a hawkish 25bps cut, which drove higher market-driven borrowing costs, a stronger dollar and a sharp drop in stocks. From the start of the week EURUSD had previously been consolidating, during which weak buyers (traders) were caught off guard by a false breakout to the upside, reaching a weekly high of 1.05342 on Tuesday. Idea The subsequent sell-off drove the pair to a four-week low of 1.03439, just above the November 22nd low of 1.03324. This drop aligns with a key Fibonacci reversal pattern under Elliott Wave theory, suggesting the potential for a significant rally. If this pattern holds, EUR/USD could gain approximately 400 pips (1.08150) in the coming weeks, with the recovery likely extending into the new year. Conclusion The recent low is expected to act as a firm support level, and a breach of the November low appears unlikely. This anticipated rally could mark the beginning of a period of recovery and optimism for the euro. Cheers! Merry Christmas and Happy New Year in advance.
Long
by Samuel124
Market SnapshotQuestions I've been asking myself lately: Is my Bank safe? If the market crashes will they survive? While they fight for survival is my money at risk being with them? Do I have enough money saved so that if my job decides my services are no longer needed my family is not immediately or permanently at risk? What's the safest vehicle to put my money in a highly inflationary environment? What's the safest vehicle in a deflationary environment? What if the price of oil doubles over the next 5 years? You really need to buy more gold and silver (not a question just talking to myself) How will I take advantage of the housing crash that's looming? Why haven't you opened a family trust yet and put all of your assets under the care of?
SP:SPXShort
by Heartbeat_Trading
MOBX resistance / support flip, target: +100% nextMobix Labs had volatile pa after earnings, an overreaction as revenue was up over 400% beating estimates. They're still at an operating loss, which is normal for a startup. Story is simple, they did multiple acquisitions this year: RaGE Systems: Revenue for 2024: Not specified. Acquisition Cost: Approximately $2 million in cash, $10 million in Mobix Labs stock, and possible earn-out payments up to $8 million over eight fiscal quarters. Description: Provides radio frequency joint design and manufacturing services. J-Mark Connectors Inc.: Revenue for 2024: Not specified. Acquisition Cost: Financial terms remain undisclosed. Description: Specializes in custom interconnect solutions for industries like aerospace, military, and defense. Spacecraft Components Corp.: Revenue for 2024: Not specified, but 2023 unaudited revenues were $18.1 million with forecasted growth for the next two years. Acquisition Cost: Between $18 million and $24 million, with consideration to be paid in a combination of cash and equity, subject to earnout provisions. Description: Manufactures mission-critical electronics for the aerospace, defense, and transportation sectors. Now especially Spacecraft Components Corp. is notably as they do 18.1 million in revenue and are worth roughly 22 million. Mobix Labs reported about 3 million in revenue yesterday. This means they will do 7x the revenue after the acquisition is completed in Q1 2025. Next to that they secured the following contracts in 2024 that are not part of the current revenue: In 2024, Mobix Labs, Inc. secured the following contracts: M-1 Abrams Tank Army Contract: for filtered connectors. Sole Source Supply Contract: with Gulfstream Aerospace Corp. for custom filtered connectors used in their business-jet aircraft. GE HealthCare and PerkinElmer Contract: for the sale of proprietary electromagnetic filtering products used in pharmaceutical diagnostics and digital imaging solutions. Tomahawk Missile System Contract: for filtered connector parts. Javelin Missile System Contract: for guidance system components. A 15-month Contract: to supply critical components for aerospace and defense applications, though specific details about the customer or components were not specified. EMI Interconnect Solutions: announced new filtered ARINC connectors and secured aerospace customers. These contracts span various sectors, focusing mainly on military, defense, aerospace, and medical applications. --- Looks to me this company is undervalued and has a lot of growth ahead in 2025... I added on the dip and any buy under $2 should be good long term. Short term pa looks like a support resistance flip and a next target of $3.52 - I also like that this stock isn't popular whatsoever, similar to LAES (SEALSQ) when I found it. A patient hold for me, DYOR, happy holidays!
NASDAQ:MOBXLong
by cryptobullethbtcxlm
Elliott Wave: A Running Flat?This consolidation is a bit confusing from an Elliott Wave perspective. My current working hyposthesis is we are in a giant (somewhat enlongated) running flat, with waves A and C being zig zags, and B being an expanding triangle. This being wave 4/5/5 for the cycle. Overall, on higher time frame though, a running flat seems to appear. Correction is not complete yet however so currently unsure. My previous analysis (one posted before this one) and the guideline of alternation both suggest that we won't have a big drop toward 70-80K or whatever. However this of course is always possible. Markets will do what they will do!--If this does occur, however, it will likely be a 'fake-out' or 'bear trap' to the downside and will be resolved quite quickly.
by Ian_Carsen
SMLT 1H Swing Long Aggressive CounterTrend TradeAggressive CounterTrend Trade - short impulse - unvolumed T1 + support level + volumed 2Sp+ + weak test + biggest volume first buying bar close entry Calculated affordable stop limit 1 to 2 R/R take profit Daily CounterTrend "- short impulse + volumed T1 + support level + volumed manipulation" Monthly Trend "+ long impulse + T2 level + support level + biggest volume manipulation" Yearly trend "+ T1 level + support level + biggest volume manipulation?"
RUS:SMLTLong
by MishaSuvorov
Bitcoin Overall: Not a time for Panic!As you can see from the monthly candles, it is commonplace for the middle of a move up to have a monthly 'doji' type candle as we will probably have here this month. I think the probabilities are BTC closes the month similar to the other times in history, and then in January begins a nice monthly candle will be seen, just like before. There is a warning though--we are approaching the end of the bull market. According to Elliott Wave Theory there are only move waves in an impulse move like we are currently experiencing, and we are on wave 5/5!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Ian_Carsen
Crude Oil Outlook: Key Levels Shape the Path AheadHello Traders, Trust you are doing great. Please take some moment to go through my analysis of USOIL and share your thoughts. Overview USOIL is currently trading at 70.08, with mixed trends across timeframes. On the H4 chart, the pair remains bullish, recovering from a recent correction. Meanwhile, the H1 chart shows a bearish trend in a corrective phase, with resistance emerging in the 70.19–70.90 region. Idea An impulsive rally from 67.045 on December 5th corrected to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level at 68.78 on December 13th, where support was established. This led to a bounce toward 70.19-70.21, which now acts as resistance. If this resistance holds, a downward move is expected, targeting 67.70 and 67.08, areas where a bullish bounce may likely occur. The short-term bias remains bearish unless price breaches the Friday high of 71.38, which would shift focus to the 71.66–72.21 zone as a potential turning point. Conclusion In the short term, the bearish outlook is dominant, with 71.38 as the key invalidation level and a stop-loss reference. A break below 69.65 would add confidence to the bearish scenario, while any move above 71.38 could signal further upside, targeting the 71.66–72.21 zone for a potential reversal. Cheers! Merry Christmas and Happy New Year in advance.
TVC:USOILShort
by Samuel124
CL_LONG_+991 TicksThe CL daily time frame has created an up channel. The market has hit the bottom of the channel and is showing signs of pushing bullish towards the top of the channel. The market has created an up Fibonacci with an extension price point 78.92 about +991 ticks above the market. The market has broke and closed above a counter trend line bullish and showing sings of wanting to push toward the Fibonacci extension. Entry: Counter trend line break bullish above the bottom of the channel. STOP: 64.60 LIMIT: 78.92. This is part of the long idea of the CL 01-25. The market has rolled into the next contract CL 02-25, so we are updating this idea.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by JoshuaMartinez
1
MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR): A Bullish Wave Ready to Break RecordsMicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR), renowned for its substantial Bitcoin holdings and its pivotal role in business intelligence solutions, is catching the attention of market analysts once again. Since its historic peak of $540 per share, the stock has undergone a complex corrective phase. From an Elliott Wave perspective, this correction unfolded as an A-B-C structure. Wave A, a sharp impulsive decline, was succeeded by Wave B, which formed as a contracting triangle. Finally, Wave C concluded around $318, presenting a potential pivot point for an exciting bullish surge. This interpretation aligns with a potential reversal and sets the stage for MSTR to skyrocket. If the analysis holds true, the stock is poised for a significant rally. Our initial target places it at an impressive $750 per share, with the possibility of further upside if broader market conditions align with the bullish wave structure. What Drives This Bullish Sentiment? MicroStrategy’s strategic embrace of Bitcoin as a core part of its balance sheet has positioned it as a proxy for cryptocurrency market movements. With Bitcoin exhibiting resilience and the potential for new highs, MSTR is poised to benefit directly. Additionally, the company’s robust presence in the data analytics sector adds to its growth narrative, providing a dual foundation for investor optimism. Technical Indicators Align Beyond the Elliott Wave analysis, technical indicators show alignment with the bullish outlook. The stock has seen a consolidation phase, allowing key support levels to solidify. Coupled with improving relative strength index (RSI) readings and increasing trading volume, this sets the stage for a breakout move. Risks to Consider As with any market scenario, there are risks. A retest of the $318 level without subsequent recovery could signal weakness in the bullish case. Moreover, external factors, such as Bitcoin price volatility or macroeconomic pressures, could impact the trajectory. Conclusion: Is MSTR a Buy? For investors seeking exposure to the dual growth stories of cryptocurrency and business intelligence, MSTR offers a compelling case. With a technical structure suggesting an imminent upward move, the stock’s potential to reclaim and surpass previous highs presents an attractive opportunity. However, as always, prudent risk management and careful analysis are essential.
NASDAQ:MSTR
by VitalDirection
Cloudflare: ResistanceBy expanding the green wave 3, NET recently stretched above the resistance at $117.70. However, the stock only briefly surpassed this level before encountering selling pressure, which pushed it back to its early December levels. Primarily, we expect the price to overcome this resistance to complete the green five-wave structure and, thus, the orange wave iii. A still ongoing wave alt.ii correction remains a possibility in the context of our 30% likely alternative scenario.
NYSE:NET
by MarketIntel