USD-CAD Bearish Bias! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
USD-CAD is trading in a
Downtrend and the pair
Made a bearish breakout
Of the key horizontal level
Of 1.3774 which is now a
Resistance and the pair is
Making a local pullback
To retest the new resistance
From where we will be
Expecting a further
Bearish continuation
Sell!
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Wave Analysis
2025-05-26 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Back where we started on Friday and I do think one more big leg down will finally be enough for the persistent btfd crowd to scale it down a bit. So far it has been profitable and that’s why bears need a big gap that does not close or otherwise we just continue sideways to up. Bulls need to get trapped for this to end.
current market cycle: broad bull channel
key levels: 23000 - 24300
bull case: Watch the 1h 20ema tomorrow. If we stay above, we can make another ath and it’s possible we see more upside above 24200. Since all my bull targets are met and I have no interest in buying this, I won’t be your guide in looking for longs here. I think buying above 24000, while we wait for 50% tariffs to the US, qualifies for most stupid the trade of the year. I’m happy for you if you make money on any side though.
Invalidation is below 23300.
bear case: Even if tariffs won’t be 50% and only 10%, it would still mean less business for everyone. Markets are not pricing the risks right and are begging to get rug pulled. Only a couple times a year markets are so miss-aligned with reality that in hindsight you feel unwell for not risking more. Having said that, now is not the time to short. We need way more selling pressure again. Wait for big bears to appear. Below 23900 we could see a test of 23800 but it will likely be an easy trap for bears so only take it if we either move very strongly down or if we move down over a long time without any decent bounce up.
Invalidation is above 24300.
short term: Neutral. Sitting on hands until bulls run for the exits and big bears come out.
medium-long term from 2025-05-25: My rough guess from early May was down over the summer and up into year end. POTUS certainly helped with the 50% tariffs. I need to see market reaction next week and if there is no 180° reversal until Friday, they will become reality the week after and dax should do 20-30% down over the next months. Markets were not positioned for any risk what so ever. Now we got the atomic trade bomb.
trade of the day: Long since Globex open. Tough.
ZIGUSDT heading to weekly support before bounce to highsZIGUSDT has a similar story like many others. It has hit the weekly resistance WR1 and currently pulling back from there.
It is likely to hit daily support DS1 and later weekly support WS1.
DS1 can provide some bounce but the price may visit WS1 again before bouncing well and continuing its upward journey.
I will buy spot heavy if it hits WS1 zone.
What do you think?
EUR-USD Local Long! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-USD made a retest
Of the key horizontal
Support level of 1.1369
And we are already seeing
A bullish rebound so we will
Be expecting a further
Bullish move up
Buy!
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BTC 4H Analysis – Breakout Structure Intact
Bitcoin is consolidating inside a bullish channel, retesting previous breakout zone after a falling wedge breakout. Price is holding above the 0.5 Fib retracement — momentum still favors bulls.
📌 Key Support: $107K–$108K
📈 Targets:
🎯 Target 1: $114,445
🎯 Target 2: $116,840
Any strong bounce from lower trendline could trigger the next leg up. Watch for bullish continuation confirmation! ✅
Bitcoin : Impulse up or Flat Trap!?If you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment!
BTC has staged a solid move off the May 25 low — but the context matters. We’re facing two distinct, high-stakes scenarios here: one bullish, one bearish. What happens next hinges on whether the May 25 rally is the start of a new impulse or the final leg (C wave) of an expanded flat off the all-time high.
Structure Breakdown
Bearish View: We’re completing a textbook expanded flat from the ATH:
A wave started May 23
B wave pushed to a lower low.
C wave began May 25 and is likely wrapping up now
If valid, this sets the stage for a powerful Wave 3 down.
Bullish View: The May 25 low marked the end of a corrective phase:
Rally from that low is an impulsive Wave 1
A pullback to the 108k golden zone would represent Wave 2
Wave 3/C up could follow from that base
What to Watch
The area around 108,000–107,100 is a magnet. If price retraces into this zone with a corrective look and holds, bulls could be in control. But if we roll over hard from here, it supports the expanded flat thesis — and a much deeper move likely follows.
Outlook
This is a moment for sharpen focus. The chart structure is clean, but the outcome isn't binary until we see what kind of retrace (if any) forms.
Watch 108k like a hawk. If bulls defend it, there’s room to talk new highs. If we break impulsively from here, expect acceleration lower — fast.
Trade safe, trade smart, trade clarity.
Analysis of the latest gold trend next week:
Core logic analysis
Driving factors
Safe-haven demand: The widening US fiscal deficit (US$36 trillion in debt), sovereign rating downgrades, and political uncertainty (debt concerns caused by Trump's policies) continue to support gold.
Weakened US dollar: The weak US dollar index has increased the attractiveness of gold to non-US investors, and physical buying is active.
Technical breakthrough: Gold prices have stabilized at key support levels, forming a long structure.
Risk warning
If US economic data exceeds expectations (such as inflation rebound, strong employment) or the Federal Reserve releases hawkish signals, gold prices may be suppressed.
Geopolitical easing or short-term relief of debt problems may weaken risk aversion.
Technical analysis refinement
Key price levels
Support range: 3315-3320 (trend line + hourly moving average adhesion area), 3305 (Bollinger middle track & long-short watershed).
Resistance range: 3375-3380 (previous high concentration area), 3428 (open upside space after breakthrough).
Indicator signal: If the Bollinger Bands open upward after closing, the bullish momentum can be confirmed with the MACD golden cross.
Pattern observation:
If the 4-hour chart forms a "high point rise, low point rise" structure, the upward trend will be strengthened; if it falls below 3305, be alert to the callback to 3280.
Operation strategy optimization
1. Long strategy (main idea)
Entry area: 3315-3320 (light position), 3305 (covering position).
Stop loss setting: below 3300 (avoid false breakthrough and loss).
Target position:
The first target is 3350 (short-term profit-taking of some positions).
The second target is 3380 (hold and look to 3428 after breaking through).
Adding position conditions: breaking through 3380 with large volume and confirming by stepping back.
2. Short hedging strategy (backup)
Trigger condition: breaking through 3305 and confirmed by 1-hour closing.
Entry point: 3300-3305.
Stop loss: above 3320.
Target: 3280 (previous low support), 3250 (lower track of medium-term channel).
Events to watch next week
Policy trends:
Speech by Fed officials (especially the tone before the June interest rate meeting).
Debt progress:
The result of the Senate vote on the US fiscal bill and the market reaction.
Summary
Trend dominance: fundamentals and technical resonance are more bullish, but be wary of profit-taking at high levels.
Position management: It is recommended that the total position is ≤5%, and the stop loss strictly follows the 1%-2% account risk principle.
Flexible response: If 3380 cannot be broken for a long time, some positions can be closed and wait and see; if it breaks through, increase the position accordingly.
Litecoin-LTCUSD Analysis-Issue 85 (Free Access)The analyst believes that the price of Litecoin will decrease within the time specified on the countdown timer. This prediction is based on a quantitative analysis of the price trend.
___Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
AIXBT Forming Cup Pattern – Breakout Potential Ahead
$AIXBT is shaping a bullish cup pattern and is now approaching key resistance. A breakout and hold above this level could trigger strong upside continuation.
📍 Breakout Zone: ~$0.24–$0.25
📈 Bullish Targets:
🎯 Target 1: $0.3123
🎯 Target 2: $0.3553
Watch for volume confirmation and daily close above resistance to confirm momentum.
JUP Breakout Watch – Cup Formation in Play
LSE:JUP is completing a cup formation and is now testing a key resistance zone. A strong breakout above this level could spark the next leg up.
📍 Breakout Zone: ~$0.60
📈 Targets on Breakout:
🎯 Target 1: $0.7359
🎯 Target 2: $0.8239
🎯 Target 3: $0.9301
Watch for a daily close above the resistance zone to confirm bullish momentum. Volume increase will be key.
XRP Eyes Breakout Toward $2.92 – Channel Structure Holds
CRYPTOCAP:XRP is currently trading inside a rising channel and holding the midline support around the 0.618 Fibonacci level. This zone has acted as a launchpad in the past and could again support a strong upward move.
✅ Structure: Bullish channel
🧠 Key Support: ~$2.18–$2.22 (aligned with 0.618–0.786 Fib levels)
📍 Trigger: Bullish continuation from this zone confirms trend resumption.
🎯 Target: $2.9206
This is the projected move based on the height of the channel structure.
Watch for volume confirmation on the bounce — the setup remains valid as long as XRP stays above key support.
$FET has successfully broken🚀 FET Weekly Breakout Update – Eyes on the Next Leg!
NYSE:FET has successfully broken out of the falling wedge structure, a strong bullish reversal pattern. Price is currently hovering near the breakout level, preparing for a potential retest.
📍 Key zone to watch: $0.68–$0.72
This area aligns with the 0.618–0.5 Fibonacci levels and should act as strong support during any pullback.
📈 If the retest holds, next targets are:
🎯 Target 1: $1.259
🎯 Target 2: $1.677
Momentum is building — a bounce from the demand zone could trigger a new impulse wave upwards.