Get started

Wave Analysis

Political and Trade Tensions Fuel Gold RallyGold surged past $3,460 per ounce on Tuesday, reaching a new record as demand for safe-haven assets intensified amid growing economic uncertainty. The rally followed President Trump’s renewed criticism of Fed Chair Powell, including remarks about his possible removal and calls for immediate rate cuts—raising concerns about political interference and Fed independence. Continued U.S.-China trade tensions, including a new probe into mineral tariffs, added to market anxiety. Gold is now up over 30% for the year. Key resistance is at $3500, followed by $3,550 and $3,600. Support stands at $3400, then $3356 and $3300.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSD
by ChartMage
Weekly Forex Market Analysis:EURUSD–Issue 207(FreeThe analyst predicts that the EUR/USD rate will increase within the time specified on the countdown timer. This prediction is based on a quantitative analysis of the price trend ___Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
Long
by MoonriseTA
EUR/CAD SHORT FROM RESISTANCE Hello, Friends! EUR/CAD pair is trading in a local uptrend which we know by looking at the previous 1W candle which is green. On the 8H timeframe the pair is going up too. The pair is overbought because the price is close to the upper band of the BB indicator. So we are looking to sell the pair with the upper BB line acting as resistance. The next target is 1.569 area. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Short
by EliteTradingSignals
1
Weekly Forex Market Analysis:GBPUSD–Issue 207(FreeThe analyst predicts that the GBP/USD rate will increase within the time specified on the countdown timer. This prediction is based on a quantitative analysis of the price trend ___Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
Long
by MoonriseTA
EURUSD: Will Keep Falling! Here is Why: The charts are full of distraction, disturbance and are a graveyard of fear and greed which shall not cloud our judgement on the current state of affairs in the EURUSD pair price action which suggests a high likelihood of a coming move down. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Short
by UnitedSignals
1
Dollar Milkshake Theory: Will the US Dollar Suck the World Dry?Imagine a colossal milkshake party where every country brings its own flavor—sweet euros, tangy yen, spicy rupees—blended into a global liquidity shake. Now picture the United States, armed with a giant straw, slurping up every last drop while the rest of the world watches in dismay. 🍓🍫🍦 This vivid analogy isn’t just a quirky dessert dream—it’s the heart of Brent Johnson’s Dollar Milkshake Theory, a provocative economic idea that’s been shaking up financial circles since 2018. But is the US dollar really about to dominate the global economy, or will it choke on its own straw? Let’s dive into this creamy concoction of macroeconomics, recent trends, and global stakes—complete with a cherry of skepticism on top! 🍒 🥛 What’s the Dollar Milkshake Theory, Anyway? Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, isn’t just a wealth manager—he’s a financial storyteller who’s been stirring the pot with his Dollar Milkshake Theory. Picture this: the global economy is a giant milkshake, with frothy assets (stocks, bonds, commodities) floating on top, and the milk, cream, and sugar representing the cash flows between markets. The straw? That’s the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, sucking up liquidity when it tightens, leaving other economies parched. Johnson’s core idea is simple yet bold: during global economic turmoil, the US dollar—thanks to its status as the world’s reserve currency—becomes a safe haven. Investors worldwide flock to it, driving its value skyward while other currencies wither. 🌎💰 Since 2008, global central banks have pumped roughly $30 trillion in liquidity into the system through quantitative easing (QE), creating a massive “milkshake” of money. But when the Fed raises rates, as it has in recent years, the US siphons that liquidity, leaving other nations scrambling to pay dollar-denominated debts. Here’s the kicker: this isn’t a one-time sip. Johnson predicts a feedback loop where the dollar’s strength forces other countries to print more of their own currencies to buy dollars, further weakening their economies and reinforcing the dollar’s dominance. It’s a vicious cycle—a “milkshake” that could leave the global economy in a sticky mess. 🌀 📈 The Recipe for Dollar Dominance: Why the US Holds the Straw Why does the US get to drink everyone else’s milkshake? It’s all about structural advantages baked into the global financial system: Reserve Currency Status 💵: The US dollar has been the world’s reserve currency since the 1944 Bretton Woods Agreement. As of 2022, it accounted for 58% of global foreign exchange reserves, dwarfing the euro’s 20% share . From oil to copper, most global trade is priced in dollars, creating constant demand. Deep Capital Markets 🏦: The US has the deepest and most liquid bond markets, especially for Treasuries, making it the go-to place for investors seeking safety during crises. Higher Interest Rates 📊: When the Fed raises rates, as it did aggressively in 2022-2023 to combat inflation, the dollar becomes more attractive compared to currencies like the euro or yen, where central banks like the ECB and BOJ have been slower to tighten . Global Dependence on Dollars 🌐: Over 60% of international reserves are in dollars, and many countries and corporations hold dollar-denominated debt. When the dollar strengthens, their debt burden skyrockets, forcing them to buy more dollars to service it . Johnson argues this isn’t just a cyclical trend—it’s a structural feature of the modern financial system. As he put it on Real Vision in 2018, “The dollar’s dominance is structural, not cyclical”. The US doesn’t just sip the milkshake—it guzzles it, leaving others to scrape the bottom of the glass. 🥤 📅 2025 Reality Check: Is the Milkshake Theory Playing Out? Fast forward to April 2025, and the global economy is a blender of chaos: trade tensions, high debt levels, and monetary policy shifts are whipping up a storm. Does Johnson’s theory hold water—or rather, milk? Let’s look at the evidence. 🕵️‍♂️ 🟢 The Bull Case: The Dollar’s Straw Is Sucking Hard DXY Strength in 2024-2025: The US dollar index (DXY) surged 7% in 2024, hitting a two-year high of 108.07 in November 2024, driven by US economic growth, tariffs, and global uncertainty . Despite a recent 8% drop over the last two months (from ~106.8 in mid-February 2025 to 98.423 as of April 22, 2025), the DXY remains near historic highs, aligning with Johnson’s prediction of dollar strength during stress. Historical Precedents: During the 2020 COVID crisis, the DXY jumped as the Fed provided $450 billion in swap lines to ease dollar shortages globally, reinforcing the dollar’s safe-haven role. In 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed the DXY to a 20-year high of 114, as capital fled to the US amid Europe’s energy crisis. Global Liquidity Squeeze: High-debt economies like Japan (debt-to-GDP at 255%) and the Eurozone (Italy at 139%, France at 112%) are under pressure. Capital flight to the US, especially if their growth falters, supports the milkshake effect. Safe-Haven Demand: Posts on X reflect sentiment that the dollar’s strength is tied to its stability in an unstable world, with some users noting its “dug-in” status as global liquidity flows to the US . 🔴 The Bear Case: Is the Straw Starting to Bend? Recent DXY Drop: The 8% decline in the DXY over the last two months (mid-February to April 2025) signals vulnerability. Trade war fears, threats to Fed independence, and a weakening US trade balance are weighing on the dollar. Some X users predict a further drop to 96-97, or even 87, if support levels break. Fed Policy Shifts: The Fed began cutting rates in September 2024, which typically weakens the dollar by reducing its yield advantage. This move, aimed at balancing inflation and growth, could undermine the milkshake effect if it continues. Dedollarization Efforts: BRICS nations are pushing to reduce dollar reliance, with China and India holding significant non-dollar reserves ($3,682 billion and $662 billion, respectively, as of April 2025). A shift toward commodity-based currencies could challenge the dollar long-term. US Debt Concerns: The US’s soaring debt levels (over 120% of GDP in 2024) and inflation above the Fed’s 2% target raise questions about the dollar’s sustainability. If confidence in US fiscal health wanes, the milkshake could spill. 🌪️ What Happens If the Milkshake Theory Plays Out? If Johnson is right, the global economy could face a bitter aftertaste. Here’s what a super-strong dollar might mean: Currency Crises Abroad 💥: Countries with dollar-denominated debt—like many emerging markets—would struggle as their debt burdens soar. A stronger dollar means they need more of their own currency to buy dollars, potentially triggering defaults. Commodity Price Slumps 📉: A rising dollar often leads to lower commodity prices (priced in dollars), hurting exporters like Brazil or Australia. This could stifle growth in developing economies. US Export Woes 🚢: An overly strong dollar makes US goods pricier abroad, hurting American exporters. US companies could lose competitiveness, impacting economic growth. Safe-Haven Asset Boom 🪙: Investors might flock to alternatives like gold or Bitcoin to hedge against currency devaluation. Gold recently hit $3,400 amid the DXY’s slide, and Bitcoin has seen gains as a “risk-on” asset. Geopolitical Shifts 🌍: A dominant dollar could lead more countries to peg their currencies to the USD for stability, as 65 nations already do (e.g., Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia). But it might also accelerate dedollarization efforts, with BRICS nations seeking alternatives. 🤔 Skeptics Stir the Pot : Is the Milkshake Theory Too Sweet to Be True? Not everyone’s sipping Johnson’s milkshake. Critics argue it’s more of a financial fairy tale than a robust theory: Oversimplification 📊: The global economy is far more complex than a milkshake analogy. The theory focuses heavily on Fed policy but downplays other central banks’ actions, geopolitical tensions, and the rise of digital currencies. Lack of Timeframes ⏳: Johnson’s predictions lack clear timelines, making them hard to test. As some X users have pointed out, being “too early” in financial markets is as good as being wrong. Counter-Theories 🌐: Economist Zoltan Pozsar’s Bretton Woods III Theory suggests a shift toward commodity-based currencies in the East, potentially weakening the dollar. Post-Russia-Ukraine war, nations are diversifying away from the USD, favoring hard assets like gold. US Vulnerabilities 🇺🇸 : The US’s own fiscal health—high debt, persistent inflation, and trade deficits—could undermine the dollar. Recent tariffs and supply chain shifts (e.g., moving away from China) may raise production costs, fueling inflation and slowing growth. 💡 What’s Next for the Dollar Milkshake in 2025 and Beyond? As of April 22, 2025, the DXY’s recent 8% drop is a speed bump, not a derailment, for the Milkshake Theory. The long-term chart you provided projects the DXY climbing to 120-130 by the late 2020s, suggesting this dip might be a correction within a broader uptrend. But the road ahead is frothy with uncertainty: Watch the Fed 🏛️: If the Fed continues rate cuts, the dollar’s yield advantage could shrink, slowing the milkshake effect. Conversely, renewed tightening could reignite dollar strength. Global Crises ⚡: Ongoing trade wars, like US-China tensions, or new geopolitical shocks could drive more capital to the US, reinforcing the theory. Dedollarization Risks 🌏: If BRICS nations succeed in reducing dollar reliance, the US straw might not suck as hard in the future. 🥛 Sip or Spill: Should You Buy Into the Milkshake Theory? Brent Johnson’s Dollar Milkshake Theory is a compelling narrative that captures the US dollar’s unique power in a turbulent world. The evidence—DXY strength, historical crises, and global dollar demand—suggests there’s cream in this shake. But the theory isn’t without cracks: the US’s own vulnerabilities, dedollarization efforts, and the recent DXY dip remind us that even the mightiest straw can bend. 🥤 For investors, this means staying nimble. A stronger dollar could hurt emerging markets and commodities, but it might boost safe-haven assets like gold or Bitcoin. Keep an eye on Fed policy, global growth, and geopolitical shifts—they’ll determine whether the US keeps sipping or the milkshake spills. 🌍💸 What do you think—will the dollar dominate, or is the party over? Let’s hear your thoughts! 🗣️
TVC:DXYLong
by RoadToAMillionClub
CHFJPY Sellers In Panic! BUY! My dear followers, I analysed this chart on CHFJPY and concluded the following: The market is trading on 172.72 pivot level. Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation. Target - 174.03 About Used Indicators: A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
1
Dow Jones in a Bear Market: Is Now the Time to Buy?Hello folks, it's Tradevietstock again. Today, global stock markets are facing a string of "red-hot" sessions after the U.S. announced tariffs on various countries. Let’s explore the mid-term investment opportunities and assess the risks and rewards in this complex environment. I will gather data on the Dow Jones. Is a harsh winter on the horizon, or could this be a historic opportunity? i. Dow Jones Index 1. Statistical analysis Currently, the Dow Jones is down nearly 20% from its peak, with a steep decline that stands out as rare in its history. Such sharp drops are uncommon for the index. Us Stock Market Index DJI - 2025 Stock Market Crash - The Biggest Bluff (Tradevietstock) When filtering quantitative data, we can observe the following scenarios. The key takeaway from this analysis is that the Dow Jones is likely to form a major bottom, setting the stage for a strong upward cycle. Based on probabilistic modeling, the Dow Jones is expected to hit its bottom from the 50th trading session onward, counting from April 4, 2025. The projected bottom range is approximately 32,184 to 33,717. The recent recovery doesn’t yet represent the major bottom, meaning we’ll need to wait longer for that turning point. => Conclusion: The Dow Jones has not yet formed its major bottom and likely needs to decline another 8% or so. However, the recent recovery marks the first sign that it’s gradually approaching a significant bottoming zone. 2. Market cycle analysis The DJI has experienced multiple breakouts below the True Range Bands. These bands are calculated to determine the true range of price movement, meaning that each breakout is carefully considered as a potential reversal signal, indicating that the price is breaking away from its recent trend. However, this is not the only factor we use to guide our trading decisions. According to Cycle Theory, the DJI is currently in its Phase 1, which represents a bear market. This is further supported by the extreme bearish phase shown in the indicator below. As shown in the example below, the DJI fell significantly after a strong rally, entering a bear market phase. Following this, the index experienced a small recovery after the Extreme Bearish Phase (highlighted by a red background) before retesting its recent bottom. At this stage, there’s a possibility that the DJI could form a lower low. This is why I emphasize the need for additional confirmation signals and statistical analysis before making any decisions. The strongest confirmation signals for a new uptrend occur when the price breaks above the True Range Bands, as shown in the image below. This breakout happens only after all the other criteria, such as those mentioned earlier, have been met. This marks the beginning of an uptrend ii. Sentiment Data Currently, the market is in a zone of extreme fear, consistent with our previous analysis that a major bottom is forming in this region. The sentiment index is hovering around ~4 points, a low level comparable to August 5, 2024. This panic isn’t limited to one region—global markets are in extreme turmoil, as shown by the CNN Fear and Greed Index. This indicator has dropped to the extreme fear zone, and historically, every time it hits this level, the S&P 500 forms a significant bottom. => Global markets are gripped by fear and chaos. This is a positive signal for picking up undervalued stocks. Whenever the Sentiment Index reaches this zone, markets tend to form major bottoms and rise in the mid-to-long term.
DJ:DJI
by TVSltd_algoindicators
#DYDX/USDT#DYDX The price is moving within a descending channel on the 1-hour frame, adhering well to it, and is on its way to breaking it strongly upwards and retesting it. We are seeing a bounce from the lower boundary of the descending channel, which is support at 0.5000. We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that is about to break and retest, supporting the upward trend. We are looking for stability above the 100 moving average. Entry price: 0.543 First target: 0.563 Second target: 0.590 Third target: 0.623
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal