Gold bulls are accumulating momentum, and bulls are counterattac
Gold head and shoulders bottom pattern is ready to go, and bulls are aiming at the key breakthrough of 3325
Market review
Last Friday, gold showed a typical shock wash pattern:
The Asian and European sessions were supported by the 4-hour head and shoulders bottom pattern, and stabilized several times in the 3285-3290 area, but were constrained by the large cycle trend to suppress 3325 (actual high point 3322);
Institutional buying intervened during the US trading session, and it quickly dropped to 3283 and then pulled up 30 US dollars to 3306, but it smashed the market again in the late trading and broke through 3280 to 3271, and finally closed above 3280, forming a "break to lure shorts" signal.
Key technical signals
Weekly level:
The big positive line in the previous week laid the bullish foundation, and the negative closing last week was a normal correction. This week, pay attention to the 10-day moving average support 3270 and the 5-week moving average buying 3295. If it stabilizes, it is expected to restart the rise.
Daily pattern:
The price continues to run near the middle Bollinger line, and the long and short directions are pending, but the large-cycle support and suppression are gradually narrowing, indicating that a breakthrough is imminent. The right shoulder of the head and shoulders bottom is built at 3285. If the pattern is established, the theoretical increase will be at least 50 US dollars (the target is 3350-3370 after breaking through 3325).
4-hour head and shoulders bottom structure:
Left shoulder 3285-right shoulder 3285 form symmetrical support, and the neckline position 3325 is the key breakthrough point for bulls. After breaking through 3280 at the end of Friday, it was quickly recovered, confirming the nature of the wash, and the short-term moving average system was glued together, ready to go.
Trading strategy
Bull layout:
Go directly to the 3295-3300 area during the day, defend below 3280, and the first target is 3320-3325;
If it breaks through 3325 strongly, you can add more positions to chase more, looking up to 3340-3350, and the ultimate target is 3370 (need to cooperate with non-agricultural data catalysis).
Risk warning:
If it unexpectedly falls below the 3270 neckline support, the pattern will be invalid and it is necessary to turn to the idea of oscillation.
Conclusion: Gold is in the key accumulation stage of bulls, and the explosive rebound of the head and shoulders bottom pattern may start at any time. Traders need to keep a close eye on the 3325 breakthrough signal and grasp the trend.
