CARRY TRADE RISK IT IS SHOWING CRACKSThe chart posted in my work on TSXV:USS yen I have NOT CHANGED THE WAVE STRUCTURE AT ALL take notice of my statement CRASH COMING
Wave Analysis
ZM: Cross-Cycle Knot in Triangle🏛️ Research Notes
Original
Alternative Interconnection Experimenting with cross-cycle interconnection so coordinates of the 3 point of fib channels are placed on structure's latest connecting point while abiding its original angles.
When elements are extended we have a projection that looks like this:
Other aspects of the shape are being tested
Fibonacci Channels based on angle of the trend fragments the cycle creating probabilistic levels. (The steeper the angle of the FC the more it relates to time axis.)
OTHERS.D – Perfect Reaction to Previous AnalysisAs predicted in the last update, OTHERS.D broke structure and dropped sharply toward the 7.20% demand zone — exactly as expected.
Now, we’re waiting for a potential bullish reaction from this key area. If demand holds, a move toward the upper channel boundary (~7.70%) could follow.
🧭 Technical Outlook:
• Price tapped into a key demand zone at 7.20%, which aligns with the lower boundary of a descending channel.
• A bullish reaction is forming, suggesting short-term strength in altcoins.
• A move toward the channel top near 7.70% is now on the table if demand holds.
⚠️ Important Note:
This move is likely to remain a corrective rally unless we see a proper breakout above 7.70% with volume and structure shift. Be selective with altcoin longs.
🔍 Watch for:
• Reaction at 7.50% midline
• Price behavior at 7.70% resistance
• Structure shift or failure pattern near channel top
⚠️ Caution: This remains a corrective rally unless price breaks 7.70% with structure shift.
🔗 Analysis by CryptoPilot
META Double Topping!Does it get any easier than this? NOPE!
If you can't spot this pattern from 1000 miles away, then you need a lot more time in the seat, training yourself in TA.
Simple with great risk reward!
Bulls GTFO!
XLM Stellar - Previous video continuation, as forecasted.Not much to say. Just watch the forecast on previous video a few days back. Close to Fib now - no entries.
Video:
Enjoy!
Smart Money Watching BTC Dominance – Rotation to Alts IncomingAfter a deep correction, BTC Dominance has entered a corrective upward phase inside an ascending channel.
Wave A rallied from 60.5% to 62.3%, followed by Wave B retracing to 60.74%.
Currently, Wave C is developing and has reached around 62.2%.
The key resistance sits near 62.7%, exactly at the upper trendline of the channel. This could act as a reversal point, potentially ending Wave C and triggering a bearish move.
💡 Implication:
If dominance drops from this zone, we could see capital rotation into altcoins, supporting a bounce across the broader altcoin market.
BTCUSDT: Good Opportunity to buy Bitcoin has dropped sharply since NFP data came out. We can now see price reversing nicely from 109k area.
Bitcoin’s Game Has Changed: Fresh Support Zone, Targets Sky-HighHey Dear Friends,
Until recently, Bitcoin had been stuck in a range between 112,331 and 105,344 for quite some time. But that range has now been clearly broken. So, what does this mean? This zone, which used to act as resistance, is now expected to flip and act as support.
According to my weekly trading model, the long-term target levels I’m tracking for Bitcoin are: 127,818 – 137,000 – 146,000.
Since this is a weekly setup, it might take a while for these targets to play out. Even if we see pullbacks to the 112K, 105K, or even 100K levels, I expect to see strong buying pressure from that zone.
I’ll keep sharing regular updates as this setup develops.
To everyone who’s been supporting and appreciating my work—thank you, truly. Your encouragement means the world to me and keeps me motivated to keep showing up. Much love to all of you—I’m grateful we’re in this journey together.
The End of BTC correction? BTC analysis 2/8/2025In my point of view, BTC has completed its correction and is now ready for a strong upward move, potentially targeting the $137,000–$139,000 range, based on the following factors:
1. Confirmation of the Butterfly Harmonic Pattern
The recent reversal occurred within the expected range of the Butterfly harmonic pattern. Typically, the XD leg in a Butterfly harmonic extends to 1.27, but in practice, this can stretch up to 1.414, which is commonly used as a flexible stop-loss zone. After testing the 1.27–1.414 range, a clear 5-wave impulse followed—testing a key trendline and making an attempt to break above the recent high. This sequence, followed by a corrective move, suggests that the broader correction may be complete.
2. Complex WXYXZ Correction Structure
In my previous analysis, I underestimated the duration and depth of the correction. The wave (4) (blue), which is part of the wave (iii), has taken considerable time—likely to allow wave (5) to extend sufficiently to break above the $130,000 level. This would support the assumption that wave (5) (purple) is the extended wave. The overall corrective structure appears highly complex, and can be counted as a W–X–Y–X–Z pattern, supported by the presence of multiple internal corrections within the wave components.
3. 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement of Wave (3)
Wave (4) has now reached the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of wave (3), which is significant. Historically, BTC’s corrections rarely retrace beyond the 0.87 level. This deep retracement suggests wave (4) is likely complete—unless price were to fall below that threshold, which would invalidate this assumption.
AAVE Daily Chart – Key Buy Zone & Two ScenariosAAVE is currently moving within a well-defined ascending channel on the daily timeframe. The last major bullish leg began from the $120 support and surged nearly +180% to a local high near $330.
Now, after a 25% pullback, price is consolidating around the midline of the channel near $250. More importantly, there’s a strong bullish order block sitting between $220–230, making this a low-risk buy zone with a stop below the order block.
🔸 Scenario 1 (bullish preferred):
Price dips into the $220 OB zone, completes a possible ABC correction, and launches a new bullish leg targeting the channel top above $500.
🔸 Scenario 2 (bearish alternate):
If the $220 order block fails, deeper correction could follow toward the channel bottom near $135.
⏳ This is a critical area to watch for reaction – Smart Money will likely show its hand soon.
🔗 Analysis by CryptoPilot
Telusdt Buy opportunitySpotted a potential ascending formation with price currently developing a mini bullish flag. This structure suggests an underlying accumulation phase ahead of a potential breakout.
The strategic focus is the Buy Back Zone, a key area for strong accumulation entries. Targets are clearly mapped on the chart, with 0.009896 as the first short-term objective, followed by 0.061317.
The final critical area to monitor is the Crucial Resistance Zone, acting as the neckline of the entire setup—its breakout will confirm a long-term structural shift. Watching closely for sustained momentum.
LTC- LitCoin - This is how a Fake Break on Fib looks like This is how a Fake Break on Fib looks like using Weis Wave with Speed Index
Reading the Daily Cha rt
1. Fib Location - Sellers could enter here
2. Largest Up volume wave after a while - also sellers could be hidden in there.
3. Increasing PVR (progressing volume rate) = as we approve the top more volume comes in (sellers)
4. This up wave has the highest Speed Index 10.0S of all the up waves in the trend, that's a HTMU (hard to move up = sellers)
5. The highest PVR bar =sellers
6. Another Abnormal Speed Index 25.5 S - that's another HTMU = more sellers on the up move, price cannot progress upward anymore.
7. and finally down we go with a PRS signal.
All the ingredients for the Short were there. Reading Weis Wave with Speed Index is like reading a book, page after page, until you reach to the last page that the writer has kept the surprise, the only difference is that this is never ending chart book with many stories. This was the story of LTC for now. I think this story has not ended yet and continue to drop to another Fib, the details on the 1HR!.
I hope you enjoy this chart reading lesson using Weis Wave with Speed Index.
In-depth Analysis of the Gold Bull-Bear Game on August 4th:
I. Gold's Current Core Contradiction
Bull Support Factors
Weak non-farm payroll data reinforces expectations of a Fed rate cut, with the market betting on an over 80% probability of a September rate cut.
Risk Aversion: Although the tariff extension has not yet been finalized, the market remains concerned about escalating trade frictions, and gold is in high demand as a safe-haven asset.
Technical Breakout: Friday saw a strong breakout above the 3340-3350 resistance zone, with the daily chart showing a positive enveloping negative trend. Short-term bullish momentum prevails.
Potential Short-Term Opportunities
Monthly Top Signal: Consecutive high-level doji candlesticks with long upper shadows suggest medium-term selling pressure.
Fundamental Bearish Hidden Dangers:
The Fed's independence remains, and Powell may not cut interest rates prematurely due to pressure from Trump.
II. Key Technical Signals
1. Weekly Level: Range Unbroken
The 3268-3438 range persists, currently nearing its upper limit, so be wary of a pullback.
Bollinger Bands are converging, with the MA5/MA10 convergence signaling an approaching market reversal window.
2. Daily and short-term cycles: Overbought correction needs
After Friday's surge: 4-hour/1-hour RSI is overbought, the Bollinger Band opening is unsustainable, and a technical retracement is needed.
Key positions:
Resistance: 3376 (previous high) + 3385 (Fibonacci expansion level);
Support: 3340 (top and bottom conversion) + 3315 (bull defense line).
3. Triangle convergence pattern:
If it opens high and breaks through 3376 on Monday, August 4, it may test 3400; if it opens low and falls below 3340, it will look down to 3315-3280.
III. Operation strategy for next week on August 4
(1) Response to three opening scenarios
Scenario 1: Opening high (above 3370)
Strategy: Short in batches in the 3376-3385 area, stop loss at 3400, target 3340→3315.
Logic: Positive overdraft + technical overbought, betting on a pullback.
Scenario 2: Flat opening (around 3360)
Strategy: If the price rises from 3366 but does not break through, go short with a light position, stop loss at 3376, target 3340; if it falls below 3340, go short and look at 3315.
Alternative: If the support at 3340 is effective, go long, stop loss at 3330, target 3360.
Scenario 3: Low opening (below 3340)
Strategy: Go long in the 3338-3340 area, stop loss at 3325, target 3360; if it breaks through 3315, go short.
(2) Mid-term layout
Short opportunity: Go short in the 3385-3400 area, stop loss at 3420, target 3245 (monthly support).
Buy opportunity: If the price falls back to 3315-3280 at the beginning of the week and stabilizes, go long in the mid-term, stop loss at 3260, target 3400.
IV. Risks and Warnings
Beware of institutional manipulation: Friday's late-day surge may be a trap for buying; beware of a flash crash at Monday's opening.
Data disturbance: Pay close attention to the speeches of Fed officials. If inflation rebounds or hawkish remarks are made, it will be bearish for gold.
Undetermined trend: The market is still volatile and unilateral trends need to wait for confirmation of a breakthrough in the range.
Conclusion
Short-term: Prioritize shorting in the 3370-3385 area, and enter long positions in the 3340-3315 area when appropriate, maintaining strict stop-loss orders.
Mid-term: The monthly bearish pattern has not changed, and above 3385 is the ideal entry point for short positions.
Key Strategies: "Don't chase long positions during strong resistance; don't sell short during deep declines; follow the trend after a breakout; exercise caution in controlling the market."
Gold long: Completion of Cycle degree Wave 4Hello, in this video, I go through Gold Elliott Wave structure on a cycle level (again) before zooming in on the latest 5-waves structure that is Cycle level wave 4. I talk about using existing broken trendlines and how that allows me to determine the strength of a move when there are false breakouts, whether to the upside or the downside.
Lastly, I discuss on how to trade this on the short-term using lower timeframe and price action. Most importantly, where to set the stop and the rationale for it.
Good luck!
Bitcoin Long: Completion of wave 4 (5-wave instead of 3-wave)In this video, I updated the wave counts for Bitcoin, primarily the change is in wave 4 where I believed that it has formed in 5-waves instead of 3-waves.
Because of the new low, both our stop loss and take profit are now lowered:
SL: $113,858.
TP: $124,000
Good luck!
BITCOIN - Price can turn around and start to move upHi guys, this is my overview for BTCUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
The price reversed its prior downtrend with a decisive breakout from a falling channel.
This breakout triggered a strong upward impulse, which then began to consolidate into a large symmetrical pennant.
However, the price recently failed to hold the lower support trendline of this pennant and broke to the downside.
The asset is currently trading just below this broken trendline, in what appears to be a liquidity grab.
To continue upwards, buyers must now overcome the immediate resistance located at the $116300 level.
I expect that this breakdown was a fakeout, and the price will soon reverse, break through the $116300 resistance, and continue its rally toward the $121000 target.
EURAUD Ready to Bounce? Key Support & Fundamentals Aligned!Today I want to share a Long position idea on EURAUD ( OANDA:EURAUD ) with you.
From a fundamental perspective , both the Euro (EUR) and Australian Dollar (AUD) are currently under pressure. However, the Aussie appears fundamentally weaker in the short term, making the EURAUD Long setup more favorable at this stage.
AUD Weakness :
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has held rates steady at 3.85%, but recent inflation data has dropped to 2.7%, the lowest in over 3 years.
Most economists now expect the RBA to cut rates in its next meeting in August, possibly by 25 basis points.
Slowing economic growth and dovish forward guidance from the central bank are weighing heavily on AUD sentiment.
EUR Outlook :
The European Central Bank (ECB) is also facing weak economic data, but is taking a more cautious approach toward cutting rates.
Despite softer PMIs and sluggish growth in countries like Germany and France, the ECB has not confirmed a near-term rate cut, keeping EUR relatively stable.
This divergence between the RBA’s dovish stance and the ECB’s pause is supportive of EUR strength against AUD.
Summary :
With the RBA likely to ease policy soon and the ECB holding ground for now, the interest rate differential favors EURAUD upside. Fundamentals point toward further weakness in AUD, making the EURAUD Long a strategically sound trade idea for the coming days.
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Now let's analyze the conditions of the EURAUD chart on the 4-hour time frame .
EURAUD is currently trading near the Support zone(1.772 AUD-1.763 AUD) , Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) , and near the lower line of the descending channel .
According to Elliott Wave theory , EURAUD appears to have completed a Zigzag Correction(ABC/5-3-5) .
Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD+) between Consecutive Valleys .
I expect EURAUD to rise to at least 1.784 AUD .
Second Target: 1.792 AUD
Note: Stop Loss(SL): 1.762 AUD
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Euro/Australian Dollar Analyze (EURAUD), 4-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Major U.S. News Ahead—Will EURUSD Pivot?Good morning, my friends 👋
Here’s my EURUSD market analysis 📉
Currently, the pair is in a downtrend. I expect this downward move to end around 1.14899 or 1.14536, where a potential buying opportunity may emerge. I personally plan to enter a buy position once price reaches those zones 💼
Also, keep an eye on major U.S. economic reports being released today—they could trigger increased volatility 🔔
Every like you send is a huge source of motivation for me to keep sharing high-quality analysis 🙏 Thanks to everyone supporting the channel 💙
AUDNZD Technical + Fundamental Align for DownsideToday I want to analyze a short position on the AUDNZD ( OANDA:AUDNZD ) pair, first, let's look at it from a fundamental analysis perspective .
Fundamental View on AUDNZD
Key reasons to short AUDNZD:
Australian weakness:
Recent data show weakening consumer sentiment and declining building approvals. The RBA seems hesitant to hike further, putting pressure on the Aussie.
New Zealand resilience:
The RBNZ maintains a relatively hawkish stance. Inflation is still a concern, and the central bank is committed to keeping rates high, supporting NZD strength.
Monetary policy divergence:
The divergence between RBA’s dovish stance and RBNZ’s hawkish approach supports further downside in AUDNZD.
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Now let's take a look at AUDNZD from a technical analysis perspective on the 4-hour timeframe .
AUDNZD is currently trading in a Heavy Resistance zone(1.0963 NZD-1.0870 NZD) near the upper line of the Range Channel , Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) and Yearly Pivot Point .
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , AUDNZD appears to be completing microwave B of microwave Y of the main wave 4 .
I expect AUDNZD to drop to at least 1.0904 NZD(First Target) based on the above explanation .
Second Target: 1.0886 NZD
Note: Stop Loss(SL): 1.0963 NZD
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar Analyze (AUDNZD), 4-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
USDCHFUSDCHF is expected to continue its downtrend next week. After a weak recovery attempt, selling pressure remains dominant. Traders should keep an eye on key support zones for potential trading opportunities.
GBPUSD: Bearish Continuation & Short Signal
GBPUSD
- Classic bearish setup
- Our team expects bearish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short GBPUSD
Entry Point - 1.3264
Stop Loss - 1.3287
Take Profit -1.3218
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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avaxusdtThe Avaxusdt is in the two areas, one of the supports is 618, the corrective wave before, and one is dynamic support. If supported, it can rise to 0618.
