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BTC 4H Technical & Fundamental AnalysisTRUMP EFFECT & RESISTANCE DENIAL CRYPTOCAP:BTC 4H Technical & Fundamental Analysis As we expected, Bitcoin reached the upper band of the falling channel (approximately $88,000), touched the red resistance circle and then experienced a strong rejection. The timing of this technical rejection is no coincidence. Last night, former US President Donald Trump's announcement that he would impose new customs duties on all countries of the world created a risk-off mood in the markets . In particular, global uncertainty and protectionist policies triggered selling pressure in risk assets such as Bitcoin. Technically: 🔸RSI still has no obvious negative mismatch. 🔸However, since the price cannot break the upper band of the falling channel, this region continues to work as a selling zone for now. If this retracement movement deepens, the first major support level of $73.777 , followed by the $69.000 line may come to the agenda. On the other hand, if the price manages to regain strength and break this zone in volume, there may be a rapid movement to the GETTEX:92K - $95K band. In short, Technical resistance + Trump news effect combined, we can say that the market has stepped back for now. From now on, volume and news flow will be directional. #btc #Bitcoin #crypto #cryptocurrency
by ugurtash
1
What's next? - EMA 9/21: Clearly broken above and now being tested as support - Bollinger Bands: Price touched the upper band — possible overbought condition - Coinbase Premium: +15.56 — rare! Indicates real spot demand - RSI: 66.12 — approaching overbought territory, suggesting momentum is weakening, but not yet at an extreme level ✅ Positives: - The price rally is supported by volume (SPX) - RSI is climbing, but not at extreme levels yet - EMA 9 > EMA 21 — a strong bullish signal - Coinbase Premium turned positive for the first time in hours — a significant shift ⚠️ Warning signs: - SPX is overheated on RSI — potential short-term profit-taking or pullback ahead - Price is above the upper Bollinger Band — often followed by a correction - ETH hasn't caught up with the momentum — potential divergence risk We’re currently seeing a genuine momentum, not just manipulation — but it’s already entering a potential profit-taking or pause zone. If the next candle prints a long upper wick and volume drops, a pullback is likely.
by RobertAIss
DXY to 80? ...Tariffs the First Domino in a Multi-Year Collapse?This is a pure technical walkthrough of the U.S. Dollar Index—no fluff, no indicators, no fundamentals. Just market structure, smart money, and liquidity concepts. Back on January 14th , I posted about a potential 20%+ drop in the DXY — you can view it here . This video builds on that thesis and walks you through the full technical story from 1986 to today , including accumulation cycles, yearly trap zones, and my long-term target of 80. Am I crazy? Maybe. Let's see if I can convince you to be crazy too 😜 There is a video breakdown above, and a written breakdown below. Here are timestamps if you want to jump around the video: 00:00 – The Case for $80: Not as Crazy as It Sounds 02:30 – The 0.786 Curse: Why the Dollar Keeps Faking Out 06:15 – How Smart Money Really Moves: The 4-Phase Playbook 12:30 – The Trap Is Set: Yearly Highs as Liquidity Bait 20:00 – Inside the Mind of the Market: 2010–2025 Unpacked 25:00 – The Bear Channel No One’s Talking About 36:00 – The First Domino: Is the Dollar’s Slide Just Beginning? 👇 If you're a visual learner, scroll down—each chart tells part of the story. Chart: Monthly View – Three Highs, .786 Retraces, and Trendline Breaks History doesn’t repeat, but it sure rhymes. Each major DXY rally has formed a sequence of three swing highs right after a break of trendline structure. In both instances, price retraced to the .786 level on the yearly closes—an often overlooked fib level that institutional players respect. We’re now sitting at a high again. You’ll notice price has already reversed from that zone. That doesn’t guarantee a collapse, but when we line it up with other confluences (next charts), the probability of a deeper markdown becomes hard to ignore. I'd also like to note that all of the highlighted moves, are 2-3 year trend runs. Which means if we are bearish, this could be the exact start of a 2-3 bear market. Market Phases Since 1986 This chart illustrates how DXY has moved through repeating cycles of: 🟡 Accumulation: Smart money building positions quietly. 🔵 Markup: Price accelerates with buy orders + media hype. 🟣 Distribution: Smart money sells to latecomers. 🔴 Markdown: Public panic → smart money reloads. If we are indeed entering another markdown phase, this would align perfectly with the pattern seen over the past 40 years. You’ll also notice the "Point of Control" (POC) zones—volume-based magnets that price often returns to. These spots often act as the origin of the move, and as such, they make for strong targets and areas of interest. Liquidity Zones and Stop Loss Traps This is where it gets juicy. The majority of breakout traders placed long entries at the blue lines—above swing highs, thinking resistance was broken. But what’s under those highs? Stop loss clusters. Institutions use these areas as liquidity harvests. Several key levels are marked as “OPEN” in this chart, meaning price has yet to return to sweep those orders. That’s why I’m expecting price to begin seeking out that liquidity over the coming months. There's also an imbalance gap (thin price action) around the 85–86 zone. If price falls into that trap door, there’s nothing to stop it until the 80s. The 2025 Outlook Here’s how I’m approaching this year: ✅ Bearish bias under 105 🎯 Targets at 100, 95, and 90 🚪 Trap door under 86 if volume is thin Price is currently stuck under the recent point of control and showing signs of distribution. If that level continues to hold as resistance, we could see a multi-leg push downward, with the 100 and 95 zones acting as check-in points. If we break under the 90s and enter the imbalance zone, 80 becomes more than just possible—it becomes probable. 🗣️ Let’s Sharpen Together Do you see this unfolding the same way? Do you disagree with the 80 target? Drop a comment with your view or share your own markup—this is why we trade! Stay safe, ⚠️ Risk Disclaimer This post is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal analysis and opinions. It is not financial advice. Trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always do your own research, manage your risk appropriately, and never trade money you can’t afford to lose.
ICEUS:DXY
by elevatedinvestor
PEPE/USDT RSI, MACD, WTO all showing reversal potential1. Price Chart & Falling Wedge Pattern PEPE is currently trading within a falling wedge, a pattern that typically signals a bullish reversal upon breakout. Price just bounced from a key support zone around 0.000000525 - 0.000000690, forming a potential double bottom. Still hugging the lower wedge boundary, meaning a breakout or a strong bounce is possible. 2. Ichimoku Cloud Price is below the Kumo cloud, confirming a bearish long-term trend. However, both Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are flat, hinting at a potential squeeze before a big move. The future cloud is narrowing, showing reduced resistance in case of a bullish breakout. 3. RSI (Relative Strength Index) RSI is around 30.12, entering oversold territory. It's starting to curl upward, suggesting a possible bullish divergence. 4. WTO (Wave Trend Oscillator) WTO is deep in the oversold zone, and a green signal dot just appeared. This often indicates early signs of momentum reversal or upcoming bounce. 5. MACD MACD just flipped bullish with a crossover below the zero line — a classic early reversal signal. The histogram is turning green, confirming the downtrend is losing strength. 6. Cluster Algo Both green and red lines are in deep oversold conditions, hovering close together — a sign of consolidation. A green dot just flashed, another indication that a bullish move may be coming. Summary ✅ Bullish signals: Price sitting on major support + falling wedge pattern. RSI, MACD, WTO all showing reversal potential. Early signs of bullish divergence. ⚠️ Caution: Long-term trend still bearish (below Ichimoku cloud). No significant volume spike yet to confirm a breakout. Suggested Strategy (Not financial advice): Speculative entry: around 0.00000070 – 0.00000073 Stop-loss: below 0.00000052 Take-profits: TP1: 0.00000105 (Fibonacci 0.5) TP2: 0.00000131 (Fibonacci 0.618) TP3: 0.00000223 (Fibonacci 0.786)
Long
by Bicoinmoney
1
Market Outlook – April 4, 2025Hey everyone, just sharing my thoughts on the current market situation based on recent developments and upcoming events. 1. Tariff Announcement Shockwave Yesterday's announcement from former President Trump regarding significant import tariffs has already triggered strong market reactions. We saw a sharp drop in SPX and related assets , with nearly 30% lost at one point. This kind of aggressive protectionist policy adds heavy pressure to an already fragile market. 2. Upcoming NFP and Unemployment Data We’re now awaiting today’s Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate data (12:30 UTC). - Forecast: NFP at 135k (vs. previous 151k) - Unemployment Rate: 4.1% (same as previous) If these come in weaker than forecast, this may confirm slowing economic conditions, increasing downside pressure. 3. Powell’s Speech Later Today At 15:25 UTC, Fed Chair Powell is set to speak. This could be a major turning point , depending on whether he addresses the tariff situation or hints at monetary policy support. If he avoids the topic or stays hawkish, we could see more selling ahead. 4. What I’m Watching - SPX approaching resistance at 0.508–0.510 with decreasing momentum (look at RSI divergence). - Coinbase Premium remains negative overall, indicating cautious institutional sentiment . - Volumes have picked up, which might suggest distribution rather than healthy accumulation . Conclusion: Personally, I remain cautious . This recent rise could be a bull trap , especially ahead of such high-impact events. Unless the data surprises to the upside and Powell offers dovish signals, I’m expecting increased volatility and possibly more downside. Stay sharp, protect your capital.
by RobertAIss
SOLUSDT | Elliott Wave Projection – Next big Move Incoming 50%+BINANCE:SOLUSDT The chart is probably currently developing a five-wave impulsive structure (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5), suggesting a potential bullish movement towards the 174-175 USD resistance zone before a larger correction unfolds. 📈 Bullish Setup: - A corrective A-B-C structure seems complete, with a potential impulsive wave (1)-(5) forming. - Price is reacting at a strong demand zone, initiating Wave (1) upwards. - Possible target for Wave (5) lies near **174-175 USD**. 📉 Bearish Continuation Afterwards - After reaching the projected high, expect a sharp rejection and reversal. - The final bearish target lies within the "End of Bear" zone (~108-109 USD). --- ### 🔹 Key Levels to Watch: ✅ First Bullish Target: ~174-175 USD ⚠️ Critical Support Zone: 108-109 USD --- ### 📌 **Trading Plan:** 1️⃣ Long Opportunity: If price respects the current support, target Wave (3)-(5) completion near 174 USD. 2️⃣ Short Confirmation: If price rejects at resistance, a larger bearish wave is expected. 3️⃣ Final Bear Target: 108-109 USD zone for possible long-term support. 🚨 Risk Management: - Stop-loss below 111 USD for longs. - Wait for confirmation before shorting after rejection. 💬 What do you think? Will SOL hit 175 USD before the final drop? Comment below!
Long
by ElliotXSolana
Capitulation Might be Close, but A Big Low Could Be Also.I've explained for a while my idea if 5500 isn't support for SPX then we see a capitulation period to the 5100 sort of area. I think the case for this is picking up increasing merit. For a while I've not really been sure what to expect if that happened. My natural tendency to fade moves would make me naturally bullish but some different outcomes I considered would have that move being an important break and us only consolidating before heading lower. With the way all of this is shaping up, I think if I see a capitulation period now I have a strong bull bias. I do think we might be setting up a much larger decline overall but a sharp drop here would usually give some sort of bull trap. There are different ranges of bull traps. Shallow, mid and deep and spike out. Modern day markets run perpetually on hard-mode so it's reasonable to expect the most tricky one. Big bull bias for the immediate term if we put in a capitulation swing. I built up a position into the rally today. Which was not a lot of fun during sections of the day and harrowing for a moment late in the day but has me positioned well into the rally. I'm looking for a move down to under 5200 and close to 5100. My target would be 5150 or so at biggest with aggressive locking in near 5200. If this move hits (especially if it hits with bad news), will be super bullish for the near term - but I would consider this an important bear break if it comes.
SP:SPXShort
by holeyprofit
3
XAUUSD Hitting 44 year ResistanceGold is currently hitting a key resistance area that goes back to 1980 (44 year) trendline. Some time may be required to correct and absorb this recent bull move. However, I would not be selling out of it completely if that's what one wishes to do with this information. I prefer people read this chart as a good way to set their expectations in case Gold stalls for a while to prevent them from panicking out of this position. Longer term I remain bullish on gold. Especially with Trump the 6-time bankrupt "businessman" being the 47th
FX:XAUUSD
by RealMacro
12