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Wave Analysis

Bitcoin is bearish | stay cautious (1H)This analysis is an update of the analysis you see in the "Related publications" section We have been warning about a potential Bitcoin correction for some time. It appears that wave G has ended, and key levels have been lost. If the price reaches the red box, it is expected to be rejected downward. The green zone is a relatively strong support area for Bitcoin, and we should closely watch this level. A daily candle closing above the invalidation level would invalidate this analysis. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management Comment if you have any questions Thank You
by behdark
TOTAL Crypto Market Cap: Structural Breakout Aligns with Macros## 📊 TOTAL – Crypto Market Cap Ready for Expansion Phase? --- ### 🧵 **Summary** The crypto market is showing signs of strong macro strength, with TOTAL reclaiming major support levels and forming a structurally bullish setup. Our multi-Fibonacci confluences and hidden bullish divergence point toward the possibility of a sustained breakout and new expansion leg toward \$4.9T and beyond. This bullish view is further supported by powerful macro fundamentals expected over the next 8–10 months, including: * Central bank rate cuts and liquidity expansion * U.S. and EU regulatory clarity (stablecoins, ETFs, MiCA) * Strong institutional adoption and geopolitical shifts * Ethereum scaling upgrades and Bitcoin halving cycle effects Together, these narratives form a compelling foundation for a broad-based market cap expansion. --- ### 📈 **Chart Context** This is a **weekly chart of the TOTAL crypto market cap**, providing a bird’s-eye view of market cycles, macro structure, and capital flow across the entire ecosystem. --- ### 🧠 **Key Technical Observations** * **Reclaim of \$3.02T level** (key support/fib level) signals macro bullish momentum. * Market is forming **higher lows and bullish continuation structures**. * **Support zones:** \$3.02T (reclaimed), \$2.57T (key pivot), * **Resistance/TP zones:** * **TP1 – \$3.75T** (100% trend-based fib + -27% retracement expansion) * **TP2 – \$4.9T** (161.8% trend-based fib + -61.8% retracement expansion) * **TP3 – \$6.9T** (261.8% fib extension target) --- ### 🧶 **Fibonacci Confluences and TP Logic** We’ve employed both **standard Fibonacci retracement** and **trend-based extension** tools to build our target structure. The **1TP and 2TP zones** are defined by confluences between: * **Retracement expansion levels** of **-27% and -61.8%** * **Trend-based extension levels** of **100% and 161.8%** If price reaches 2TP (~~\$4.9T) and **retraces toward the parallel legs** (100%–127%), this would confirm structural symmetry and open the door for a final push toward \*\*TP3 (~~\$6.9T)\*\* — the 261.8% extension. --- ### 🔍 **Indicators** * **MACD Crossover** and rising histogram bars * **Hidden Bullish Divergence** between MACD and price – a classic continuation signal * Weekly trendline breakout from accumulation zone --- ### 🧠 **Fundamental Context** While not directly charted, key macro catalysts like ETF approvals, global liquidity cycles, monetary easing, and increasing institutional interest will likely play a role in the next phase of expansion. This chart captures the structural readiness for that narrative. ## 📊 Fundamental Context (Extended Outlook: Mid-2025 to Early 2026) Below is a detailed breakdown of upcoming macroeconomic, geopolitical, and crypto-specific developments sourced from: * Bitwise Asset Management * Fidelity Digital Assets * ARK Invest * CoinDesk, Reuters, Axios, WSJ * CapitalWars, Cointelegraph, Coinpedia * European Commission (MiCA regulations) * U.S. Congressional records and SEC announcements These events are chronologically aligned to support a structured macro bullish thesis for TOTAL market cap. Bullish Crypto Catalysts (June 2025 – Feb 2026) Summer 2025 (Jun–Aug): Monetary Easing and Regulatory Breakthroughs Central Bank Policy Pivot: By mid-2025, major central banks are shifting toward easier policy. Market expectations indicate the U.S. Federal Reserve will stop tightening and begin cutting interest rates in 2025, with forecasts of up to three rate cuts by end-2025 bitwiseinvestments.eu . Declining inflation and rising unemployment are pushing the Fed in this direction bitwiseinvestments.eu bitwiseinvestments.eu . Easier monetary policy increases global liquidity and risk appetite, historically providing a tailwind for Bitcoin and crypto prices bitwiseinvestments.eu . In fact, global money supply is near record highs, a condition that in past cycles preceded major Bitcoin rallies bitwiseinvestments.eu . Should economic volatility worsen, the Fed has even signaled readiness to deploy fresh stimulus, which would inject more liquidity – “another tailwind for Bitcoin price growth” nasdaq.com . Liquidity and Inflation Trends: With inflation trending down from earlier peaks, central banks like the Fed and European Central Bank are under less pressure to tighten. This opens the door for potential liquidity injections or QE if growth falters. Analysts note a strong correlation (often >84%) between expanding global M2 money supply and Bitcoin’s price rise nasdaq.com . There is typically a ~2-month lag for liquidity increases to flow into speculative assets like crypto nasdaq.com nasdaq.com . The monetary easing expected in mid-2025 could therefore boost crypto markets by late summer, as new liquidity finds its way into higher-yielding investments. One projection even models Bitcoin retesting all-time highs (~$108K by June 2025) if global liquidity continues upward nasdaq.com – underscoring how “accelerated expansion of global liquidity” often aligns with crypto bull runs nasdaq.com . U.S. Stablecoin Legislation: A landmark regulatory catalyst is anticipated in summer 2025: the first comprehensive U.S. crypto law, focused on stablecoins. The Senate has advanced the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act to a final vote coindesk.com . Passage of this bill (expected by mid-2025) would create a federal framework for stablecoin issuers, resolving a major regulatory gray area coindesk.com . Analysts call this “one of the most important regulatory developments in the history of crypto” – potentially even bigger than the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in impact coindesk.com . By enforcing prudential standards on stablecoin reserves and permitting licensed issuance, the law would legitimize stablecoins as a core part of the financial system. Bitwise predicts that clear rules could trigger a “multi-year crypto bull market,” with stablecoin market cap exploding from ~$245B to $2.5 trillion as mainstream adoption accelerates coindesk.com coindesk.com . A U.S. law would also likely set a global precedent, encouraging other regions to integrate crypto-dollar tokens into commerce. Bottom line: expected stablecoin regulation in summer 2025 is a bullish game-changer, improving market integrity and unlocking new liquidity for crypto markets coindesk.com . Regulatory Clarity in Europe: Meanwhile, Europe’s comprehensive MiCA regulations have fully taken effect as of late 2024, so by summer 2025 the EU has a unified crypto framework. This gives legal clarity to issuers, exchanges, and custodians across the 27-nation bloc pymnts.com skadden.com . The harmonized rules (covering everything from stablecoin reserves to exchange licensing) are expected to expand Europe’s crypto market size by 15–20% in the coming years dailyhodl.com . With MiCA in force, firms can confidently launch crypto products EU-wide, and institutional investors have more protection. U.K. regulators are on a similar path – e.g. recognizing stablecoins as payment instruments – further globalizing the pro-crypto regulatory trend. By mid-2025, this regulatory thaw in major economies is improving investor sentiment. Goldman Sachs recently noted that 91% of crypto firms are gearing up for MiCA compliance – a sign that industry is preparing to scale under clearer rules merklescience.com merklescience.com . Overall, the summer of 2025 marks a turning point: governments are embracing sensible crypto rules (rather than harsh crackdowns), reducing uncertainty and inviting institutional capital off the sidelines. Initial ETF Impact: The first wave of U.S. spot crypto ETFs – approved in late 2023 and January 2024 – will have been trading for over a year by mid-2025 investopedia.com . Their success is already far exceeding expectations: BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust amassed a record $52 billion AUM in its first year (the biggest ETF launch in history) coindesk.com , and other Bitcoin funds from Fidelity, ARK, and Bitwise quickly joined the top 20 U.S. ETF launches of all time coindesk.com . These products have unleashed pent-up retail and institutional demand by offering a regulated, convenient vehicle for crypto exposure coindesk.com . By summer 2025, ETF inflows are still robust, and many Wall Street analysts expect a second wave of approvals. Indeed, 2025 is being called “the Year of Crypto ETFs” coindesk.com . Observers predict dozens of new funds – including spot Ether, Solana, and XRP ETFs – could win approval under revamped SEC leadership in the post-2024 election environment coindesk.com . If so, late 2025 could see a broad menu of crypto ETF offerings, widening investor access to the asset class. This steady drumbeat of ETF launches and inflows adds a structural source of buy-pressure under crypto markets throughout 2025. (Notably, Bloomberg data showed over $1.7B poured into spot crypto ETFs in just the first week of 2025, on top of 2024’s flows etf.com .) In short, the ETF effect – “shocking the industry to its core” in year one coindesk.com – is set to grow even stronger in 2025, channeling more traditional capital into crypto. U.S. Political Shift (Post-Election): The outcome of the Nov 2024 U.S. elections is a crucial backdrop by mid-2025. A new administration under President Donald Trump took office in January 2025 and immediately signaled a markedly pro-crypto policy stance. Within his first 100 days, Trump’s appointments to key financial agencies (SEC, CFTC, OCC) effectuated a “180° pivot” in crypto regulation from the prior administration cnbc.com . Industry observers describe a sharp policy reversal – where previously the sector faced hostility, now it’s courted as an engine of innovation. President Trump has publicly vowed to be “the first crypto-president,” hosting crypto industry leaders at the White House and promising to boost digital asset adoption reuters.com . He even floated creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve for the United States reuters.com – a striking show of support for Bitcoin’s role as a reserve asset (though it remains to be seen if this materializes). More tangibly, regulatory agencies have begun rolling back onerous rules. For example, the SEC under new leadership scrapped a prior accounting guideline that made bank crypto custody prohibitively expensive reuters.com . And the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has “paved the way” for banks to engage in crypto activities like custody and stablecoin issuance reuters.com . These changes in Washington brighten the outlook for crypto markets: with regulatory uncertainty fading, U.S. institutions feel more confident to participate. In essence, by mid-2025 the world’s largest capital market (the U.S.) is shifting from impeding crypto to embracing it, a narrative change that cannot be overstated in its bullish significance coindesk.com reuters.com . Geopolitical Easing and BRICS Actions: Global macro conditions in summer 2025 may also improve due to geopolitical developments. If major conflicts (like the Russia-Ukraine war) de-escalate or move toward resolution by late 2024 or 2025, it would remove a key source of risk-off sentiment. Lower geopolitical risk and easing of war-driven commodity shocks would help cool inflation (especially energy prices) and bolster global growth – factors that support risk asset rallies (crypto included). On another front, the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa + new members) are continuing their de-dollarization agenda in 2025. At the BRICS summit in October 2024, they discussed creating a new gold-backed reserve currency (“the Unit”) as an alternative to the U.S. dollar investingnews.com . They also announced a BRICS blockchain-based payment network (“BRICS Bridge”) to connect their financial systems via CBDCs, bypassing Western networks investingnews.com . Going into 2025, these initiatives are expected to progress (with Russia currently chairing BRICS). While a full-fledged BRICS currency may be years away (and faces hurdles moderndiplomacy.eu ), the bloc’s move to settle more trade in non-USD currencies is already underway (by 2023, roughly 20% of oil trades were in other currencies) investingnews.com . Implication: A shift toward a more multi-polar currency world could weaken U.S. dollar dominance over time investingnews.com . For crypto, this trend is intriguing – as nations seek dollar alternatives, Bitcoin’s appeal as a neutral, supranational asset may rise. In sanctioned or economically volatile countries, both elites and the public might accelerate adoption of crypto for cross-border value storage. For example, U.S. sanctions on Russia and China have already catalyzed talk of reserve diversification investingnews.com . Fidelity analysts note that “rising inflation, currency debasement and fiscal deficits” globally are making Bitcoin strategically attractive for even nation-states and central banks coindesk.com coindesk.com . Summing up: a backdrop of improving geopolitical stability (if realized) plus a weakening dollar regime provides a bullish macro and narrative case for borderless cryptocurrencies as we enter the second half of 2025. Fall 2025 (Sep–Nov): Institutional Inflows, Adoption & Tech Upgrades Surging Institutional Adoption: By autumn 2025, the cumulative effect of regulatory clarity and market maturation is a wave of institutional adoption unlike any prior cycle. In traditional finance, major U.S. banks and brokers are cautiously but steadily entering the crypto arena. Reuters reports that Wall Street banks are now receiving “green lights” from regulators to expand into crypto services, after years of hesitance reuters.com reuters.com . Many top banks have been internally testing crypto trading and custody via pilot programs reuters.com . As one example, Charles Schwab’s CEO said in May 2025 that regulator signals are “flashing pretty green” for large firms, and confirmed Schwab plans to offer spot crypto trading to clients within a year reuters.com . Banks like BNY Mellon, State Street, and Citigroup – which collectively manage trillions – are expected to roll out crypto custody solutions by 2025, often via partnerships with crypto-native custodians dlnews.com . The OCC has explicitly authorized banks to handle crypto custody and stablecoins (under proper safeguards), removing a key barrier reuters.com . And the SEC’s friendlier stance under new leadership means banks no longer face punitive capital charges for holding digital assets reuters.com . The net effect is that by late 2025, institutional-grade crypto infrastructure is falling into place. More pension funds, endowments, and asset managers can allocate to crypto through familiar channels (regulated custodians, ETFs, prime brokers). Even conservative banking giants are warming up: Bank of America’s CEO stated the bank “will embrace cryptocurrencies for payments if regulations permit” and hinted at possibly launching a BOA stablecoin for settlement reuters.com . Likewise, Fidelity and BlackRock’s crypto units are expanding offerings after seeing outsized demand. This institutional legitimization dramatically expands the pool of potential investors in crypto markets, supporting a higher total market capitalization. Crypto ETF Expansion: In Q4 2025, the roster of crypto-based ETFs and funds is likely to broaden further. As noted, analysts foresee 50+ crypto ETFs by end of 2025 under the pro-industry U.S. regulatory regime coindesk.com . By fall, we may see Ethereum spot ETFs (building on the successful Bitcoin products) and even funds for large-cap altcoins. For instance, Nate Geraci of The ETF Store predicts spot Solana and XRP ETFs are on the horizon in the U.S. coindesk.com . Internationally, Canada and Europe already have multiple crypto ETPs – their continued growth adds to global inflows. With a year of performance history by late ’25, crypto ETFs will likely start seeing allocations from more conservative institutions (insurance firms, corporate treasuries, etc.) that needed to observe initially. Fidelity’s strategists noted that in 2024 much of the ETF buying came from retail and independent advisors, but 2025 could bring uptake from hedge funds, RIAs, and pensions as comfort grows coindesk.com coindesk.com . In summary, fall 2025 should witness accelerating capital inflows via investment vehicles, as crypto solidifies its place in mainstream portfolios. This sustained demand – “2025’s flows will easily surpass 2024’s” according to one strategist coindesk.com – provides a steady bid under crypto asset prices, reinforcing a bullish trend. Nation-State and Sovereign Adoption: A notable development to watch in late 2025 is the entry of nation-states and public institutions into Bitcoin. Fidelity Digital Assets published a report calling 2025 a potential “game changer in terms of bitcoin adoption”, predicting that more nation-states, central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and treasuries will buy BTC as a strategic reserve asset coindesk.com . The rationale is that with rising inflation and heavy debt loads, governments face currency debasement and financial instability, making Bitcoin an attractive hedge coindesk.com . By Q4 2025, we could see early signs of this trend. For example, there are rumors that Russia and Brazil have explored holding Bitcoin reserves fortune.com , and Middle Eastern sovereign funds flush with petrodollars might quietly accumulate crypto as diversification. In the U.S., President Trump and crypto-friendly lawmakers like Senator Cynthia Lummis have openly discussed establishing a U.S. Bitcoin reserve or adding BTC to Treasury holdings coindesk.com . Lummis even introduced a “Bitcoin Reserve” bill in 2024, which if enacted would set a precedent for national adoption coindesk.com . While such bold moves might not happen overnight, even small allocations by governments or central banks would be symbolically massive. It would validate crypto’s role as “digital gold” and potentially ignite FOMO among other nations (a game theory dynamic Fidelity’s report alludes to). Thus by late 2025, any announcements of central banks buying Bitcoin or countries mining/holding crypto (similar to El Salvador’s earlier example) could spur a bullish frenzy. At minimum, the expectation of this “sovereign bid” provides a narrative supporting the market. As Fidelity’s analysts put it: not owning some Bitcoin may soon be seen as a greater risk for governments than owning it coindesk.com . Ethereum & Crypto Tech Upgrades: The latter part of 2025 is also packed with technological catalysts in the crypto sector, which can boost investor optimism. Chief among these is Ethereum’s roadmap milestones. Ethereum core developers plan to deliver major scaling improvements by end-2025 as part of “The Surge” phase bitrue.com . This includes fully rolling out sharding – splitting the blockchain into parallel “shards” – combined with widespread Layer-2 rollups, aiming to increase throughput to 100,000+ transactions per second bitrue.com . If Ethereum achieves this by Q4 2025, it would vastly lower fees and increase capacity, enabling a new wave of decentralized application growth. For users, that means faster, cheaper transactions; for the market, it means Ethereum becomes more valuable as utilization can skyrocket without bottlenecks. Progress is well underway: an intermediate upgrade (EIP-4844 “proto-danksharding”) was implemented earlier to boost Layer-2 efficiency, and the next major upgrade (code-named Pectra) is slated for Q1 2025 focusing on validator improvements and blob data throughput fidelitydigitalassets.com . After that, the final sharding implementation is expected. By late 2025, Ethereum’s evolution – including MEV mitigation (The Scourge) and Verkle trees for lighter nodes (The Verge) – should make the network more scalable, secure, and decentralized bitrue.com . These upgrades are bullish for the ecosystem: a more scalable Ethereum can host more DeFi, NFT, and gaming activity, attracting capital and users from traditional tech. Investors may speculate on ETH demand rising with network activity. Beyond Ethereum, other protocols (Solana, Cardano, Layer-2s like Arbitrum, etc.) also have roadmap milestones during this period, potentially improving their value propositions. Overall, the tech backdrop in late 2025 is one of significant improvement, which supports a positive market outlook – the infrastructure will be ready for mainstream scale just as interest returns. Bitcoin Halving Aftermath: Although the Bitcoin halving took place in April 2024, its bullish impact historically materializes with a lag of 12-18 months. That puts late 2025 into early 2026 right in the window when the post-halving cycle may reach a euphoric phase. By fall 2025, Bitcoin’s supply issuance will have been at half its prior rate for ~18 months, potentially leading to a supply-demand squeeze if demand surges. ARK Invest notes that previous halvings (2012, 2016, 2020) all coincided with the early stages of major bull markets ark-invest.com . Indeed, by Q4 2025 we may see this pattern repeating. ARK’s analysts observed in late 2024 that Bitcoin remained roughly on track with its four-year cycle and expressed “optimism about prospects for the next 6–12 months” following the April 2024 halving ark-invest.com . That optimism appears well-founded if macro conditions and adoption trends align as discussed. By November 2025, Bitcoin could be approaching or exceeding its previous all-time high ( ~$69K from 2021) – some crypto analysts foresee six-figure prices during this cycle. Importantly, a rising Bitcoin tide tends to lift the entire crypto market cap. Late 2025 could see a broad rally across altcoins, often referred to as “altseason,” as new retail and institutional money, emboldened by Bitcoin’s strength, diversifies into higher-beta crypto assets. The expectation of the halving-driven bull cycle can itself become a self-fulfilling sentiment booster: investors position ahead of it, providing additional buy pressure. In summary, fall 2025 is poised to be the crescendo of the Bitcoin halving cycle, with historical analogues (2013, 2017, 2021) suggesting a powerful uptrend in crypto prices. Reduced BTC supply + peak cycle FOMO + all the fundamental drivers (ETF flows, low rates, tech upgrades) make this timeframe particularly conducive to a bullish market cap expansion. Winter 2025–26 (Dec–Feb): Peak Momentum and Continued Tailwinds Bull Market Momentum: Entering winter 2025/26, the crypto market could be in full bull mode. If the above developments play out, total crypto market capitalization may be approaching new highs by late 2025, driven by strong fundamentals and investor FOMO. Historically, the final leg of crypto bull markets sees parabolic gains and surging liquidity inflows. We might witness that in Dec 2025 – Feb 2026: exuberant sentiment, mainstream media coverage of Bitcoin “breaking records,” and increased retail participation. Unlike the 2017 and 2021 peaks, however, this cycle has far greater institutional involvement, which could imply more sustainable capital inflows (and possibly a larger magnitude of inflows). Key macro factors are likely to remain supportive through early 2026: central banks that began easing in 2024-25 may continue to hold rates low or even consider renewed asset purchases if economies are soft. For instance, if a mild U.S. recession hits in late 2025, the Fed and peers could respond with quantitative easing or liquidity facilities, effectively “printing” money that often finds its way into asset markets, including crypto nasdaq.com . China’s PBoC could also inject stimulus to boost growth, adding to global liquidity. Such actions would prolong the “risk-on” environment into 2026, delaying any end to the crypto uptrend. Additionally, global equity markets are projected to be strong in this scenario (buoyed by low rates and easing geopolitical tensions), and crypto’s correlation with equities means a rising stock tide lifts crypto too – as was observed in May 2025 when stock rallies coincided with BTC and ETH jumps blockchain.news blockchain.news . Investor Sentiment and Retail Revival: By early 2026, investor sentiment toward crypto could be the most bullish since 2021. With clear regulatory frameworks, high-profile endorsements (even governments buying in), and tech narratives (Web3, AI+blockchain, etc.), the stage is set for a positive feedback loop. Retail investors who largely sat out during the harsh 2022–23 bear market may fully return, spurred by “fear of missing out” as they see Bitcoin and popular altcoins climbing. This broadening of participation (from hedge funds down to everyday investors globally) increases market breadth and can drive total market cap to climactic heights. Notably, the availability of user-friendly investment onramps – e.g. spot crypto ETFs through any brokerage, crypto offerings integrated in fintech apps and banks – makes it much easier for average investors to allocate to crypto in 2025-26 than in past cycles. The removal of friction means inflows can ramp up faster and larger. Social media and pop culture hype also tend to peak in late-stage bulls; we might see Bitcoin and Ethereum becoming water-cooler talk again, drawing in new demographics. All of this contributes to strong sentiment and capital inflows in winter 2025/26, reinforcing the bullish outlook. Continued Policy and Geopolitical Tailwinds: The policy landscape is expected to remain a tailwind into 2026. In the U.S., if the pro-crypto Trump administration stays aligned with its promises, we could see additional positive actions: perhaps tax clarity for digital assets, streamlined ETF approvals for more crypto categories, or even federal guidelines for banks to hold crypto on balance sheets. Such steps would further normalize crypto within the financial system. Regulatory coordination internationally might also improve – for example, G20 nations in 2025 have been working on a global crypto reporting framework and stablecoin standards, which, once implemented, reduce the risk of harsh crackdowns in any major economy. On the geopolitical front, the BRICS de-dollarization efforts might bear first fruit by 2026, such as increased trade settled in yuan, gold, or even Bitcoin. If Saudi Arabia (a new BRICS invitee) starts pricing some oil in non-USD, that could weaken dollar liquidity at the margins, and some of that displaced value might flow to alternative stores like crypto or gold. Additionally, by 2026 the world will be looking ahead to the next U.S. Presidential election cycle (2028) – typically, in the lead-up, administrations prefer supportive economic conditions. This could mean fiscal stimulus or at least no new financial regulations that rock markets, implying a benign policy environment for risk assets. In Europe, 2026 will see MiCA fully operational and possibly updated with new provisions for DeFi and NFTs, further integrating the crypto market. In sum, early 2026 should carry forward many of 2025’s positive drivers – ample liquidity, regulatory support, and growing mainstream acceptance – giving little reason to suspect an abrupt end to the bullish trend during this window. Bitcoin Halving Cycle Peak: If history rhymes, the crypto market might reach a cycle peak somewhere around late 2025 or early 2026. Past bull cycles (2013, 2017, 2021) peaked roughly 12-18 months after the halving; a similar timeframe would put a possible top in the Dec 2025 – Feb 2026 period. That could mean Bitcoin at unprecedented price levels and total crypto market cap in multi-trillions, barring any unforeseen shocks. ARK Invest’s analysis as of late 2024 remained optimistic that Bitcoin was “in sync with historical cycles” and poised for strong performance into 2025 ark-invest.com . By early 2026, those cycle dynamics (diminished new supply vs. surging demand) might reach a crescendo. One metric to watch is the stock-to-flow or issuance rate – post-halving Bitcoin’s inflation rate is below 1%, lower than gold’s, which can drive the digital gold narrative to its zenith at this point. Moreover, Ethereum’s upcoming transition to a deflationary issuance (with EIP-1559 fee burns and Proof-of-Stake) means ETH could also be seeing declining supply into 2026, potentially amplifying its price if demand spikes. Thus, both of the top crypto assets would have increasing scarcity dynamics during the period when interest is highest – a recipe for a dramatic run-up. Importantly, capital rotations within crypto during peak phases often send smaller altcoins skyrocketing (as investors seek outsized gains), temporarily boosting total market cap beyond just Bitcoin’s contribution. All told, the early 2026 period could represent the euphoric apex of this cycle’s bull market, supported by solid macro and fundamental fuel laid in the preceding months. Even if volatility will be high, the overall outlook through February 2026 remains strongly bullish for crypto’s total market capitalization, given the confluence of loose monetary conditions, favorable policy shifts, geopolitical diversification into crypto, institutional FOMO, and major network upgrades powering the narrative. ✨ Philosophical Reflection In the ever-unfolding rhythm of cycles—accumulation, expansion, distribution, and reset—crypto mirrors the deeper architecture of nature and consciousness. Just as seeds lie dormant in winter awaiting the kiss of spring, so too does capital bide its time in the shadows before surging into momentum. The Fibonacci spirals found in shells, storms, and galaxies reappear in price action—offering not just numbers, but a language of emergence. What we witness in the TOTAL market cap is not just a breakout—it is a reawakening. A collective pulse of belief, liquidity, and intention. In this confluence of technical geometry and macroeconomic tides, the market becomes more than price—it becomes a story, a symbol, a signal. We don’t just analyze this chart—we read it like a sacred map, charting the ascent of value, vision, and velocity.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by BitonGroup
MFL LONG TRADEMFL gave an ERC breakout in Dec 2024 - touching a high of 54.5 but showed SOT shortly and started trading in a downward corrective channel. This steep downward channel is actually a Bull Flag as per Price Action Principles. MFL has shown reversal with supportive Volume Gradient confirmations and upward movement from Golden Ratio Fibonacci retracement. Reversal trades are one of the best R:R trades. 🚨 TECHNICAL BUY CALL – MFL 🚨 🎯 BUY ZONE: Rs. 34-40.85 📈 TP1 : Rs. 47 📈 TP2 : Rs. 54.6 🛑 STOP LOSS: BELOW Rs. 29.9 (Daily Close) 📊 RISK-REWARD: High Conviction | 1:4.2 Caution: Please buy in 3 parts in buying range. Close at least 50% position size at TP1 and then trail SL to avoid losing incurred profits in case of unforeseen market conditions. PLEASE BOOST AND SHARE THE IDEA IF YOU FIND IT HELPFUL.
PSX:MFLLong
by Mushtaque77
GBP/JPY Elliott Wave Count Warns of Impending Sell-OffThe GBP/JPY pair has just completed a 5-wave downtrend, which ended around early April. Since then, the price has been moving higher in what appears to be a typical A-B-C corrective pattern — a common move that occurs after a major downtrend in Elliott Wave Theory. We are currently in the final wave (C) of this correction, and within that, it appears that Wave 5 of C is now unfolding. This final wave appears to be nearing its end, and the price is approaching a strong resistance area between 196.813 and 197.513. T1: 193.735 T2: 192.133 SL: 198.252 ❌ Invalidation Level: If the price closes above 198.252, this Elliott Wave count is likely wrong. That could mean the market is preparing for a bigger rally instead.
by Money_Dictators
NEAR to $45? The Signs Are All There…Just imagine traveling through time. Many people look back with regret, wishing they had invested in cryptocurrencies before previous bullish cycles. We've all heard phrases like "If only I had bought Bitcoin at $100, I'd be a millionaire by now." But the real question is: Will you have the courage to make the right decision when the moment comes? You might think I'm crazy for presenting these targets today — and that's okay. But trust me, in a few months, you'll witness the phenomenal power of our analysis system. The market is fractal by nature; what happens on lower timeframes inevitably plays out on higher ones. NEAR is one of the most promising blockchains, and all signals are aligning for a move toward $45. The question is: Do you have the courage to take action now?
Long
by LEETALGOCONCEPT_Mentor
3
PEPE/USDT RSI, MACD, WTO all showing reversal potential1. Price Chart & Falling Wedge Pattern PEPE is currently trading within a falling wedge, a pattern that typically signals a bullish reversal upon breakout. Price just bounced from a key support zone around 0.000000525 - 0.000000690, forming a potential double bottom. Still hugging the lower wedge boundary, meaning a breakout or a strong bounce is possible. 2. Ichimoku Cloud Price is below the Kumo cloud, confirming a bearish long-term trend. However, both Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are flat, hinting at a potential squeeze before a big move. The future cloud is narrowing, showing reduced resistance in case of a bullish breakout. 3. RSI (Relative Strength Index) RSI is around 30.12, entering oversold territory. It's starting to curl upward, suggesting a possible bullish divergence. 4. WTO (Wave Trend Oscillator) WTO is deep in the oversold zone, and a green signal dot just appeared. This often indicates early signs of momentum reversal or upcoming bounce. 5. MACD MACD just flipped bullish with a crossover below the zero line — a classic early reversal signal. The histogram is turning green, confirming the downtrend is losing strength. 6. Cluster Algo Both green and red lines are in deep oversold conditions, hovering close together — a sign of consolidation. A green dot just flashed, another indication that a bullish move may be coming. Summary ✅ Bullish signals: Price sitting on major support + falling wedge pattern. RSI, MACD, WTO all showing reversal potential. Early signs of bullish divergence. ⚠️ Caution: Long-term trend still bearish (below Ichimoku cloud). No significant volume spike yet to confirm a breakout. Suggested Strategy (Not financial advice): Speculative entry: around 0.00000070 – 0.00000073 Stop-loss: below 0.00000052 Take-profits: TP1: 0.00000105 (Fibonacci 0.5) TP2: 0.00000131 (Fibonacci 0.618) TP3: 0.00000223 (Fibonacci 0.786)
Long
by Bicoinmoney
2
USDollar Is Making An Intraday Pullback Within DowntrendGood morning traders! Stocks keep pushing higher along with yields, so it looks like 10Y US Notes could still see lower support levels, and that’s why USdollar is in a bigger intraday correction. What we want to say is that while the 10Y US Notes are still searching for support, the DXY can stay in recovery mode or at least sideways. In the meantime, stocks can easily see even higher levels after NVIDIA surpassed earnings. Looking at the intraday USDollar Index – DXY chart, we see a leading diagonal formation, so we are tracking now an intraday abc correction before a bearish continuation, thus keep an eye on GAP from May 18 around 101 level that can be filled and may act as a resistance before a bearish continuation.
TVC:DXYShort
by ew-forecast
S&P500: Top Within ReachThe S&P has recently continued its upward movement, climbing higher into the magenta-colored Short Target Zone between 5,880 and 6,166 points. Primarily, we expect the top of the current wave (X) in magenta within this price range, after which a downtrend should follow with wave (Y). This final phase of the magenta three-part movement should lead the index into the green Long Target Zone between 4,988 and 4,763 points, completing the overarching green wave there. A rise above the upper boundary of the Target Zone and a breach of resistance at 6,675 points would trigger our alternative scenario. 📈 Over 190 precise analyses, clear entry points, and defined Target Zones - that's what we do.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by MarketIntel
#INJ/USDT#INJ The price is moving within a descending channel on the 1-hour frame, adhering well to it, and is heading for a strong breakout and retest. We are seeing a bounce from the lower boundary of the descending channel, which is support at 14.36. We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that is about to be broken and retested, supporting the upward trend. We are looking for stability above the 100 Moving Average. Entry price: 14.87 First target: 15.12 Second target: 15.57 Third target: 16.07
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal
BTC Combination CorrectionAfter surpassing recent all time highs, the Bitcoin price has seen a slight rejection from the $112k price point, and now potentially forming what may be a corrective structure prior to continuation of the uptrend. I have charted an elliott wave combination correction featuring a flat, and 2 following zig zags, also knows as a WXY correction which is simply multiple ABC corrections merged to form a larger WXY zigzag. The target for this correction is a third and final sweep of the low, being a reversal move and not a continuation to the downside. This is somewhat consistent with a triple three correction, with multiple liquidity grabs before resuming in the direction of the original trend. I will be watching closely over the week to see if we can get a sweep below $106k , where I will look for potential long trade entries.
Long
by afurs1
xauusd 15mThe chart you've shared is a 15-minute candlestick chart for Gold Spot (XAU/USD) from TradingView. Here's a breakdown of the analysis presented: --- 🔍 Key Chart Annotations & Levels 1. Current Price: Around 3,293.175 2. Support Zone (Register Zoon): Marked in red, around 3,275.000 - 3,285.000 This appears to be a strong demand/support zone where price might bounce. 3. Resistance Levels: 1st Level Resistance: 3,305.930 Price must break this to confirm a bullish reversal. Target Point (Major Resistance): 3,329.135 Considered the upside goal if price breaks above the first resistance. --- 📈 Price Action Scenarios 1. Bullish Scenario (Green Arrows): If price finds support around current levels or in the red "register zoon" A bounce could take price above the 1st level (3,305.930) Target: 3,329.135 2. Bearish Scenario (Red Arrows): If price fails to hold above the support zone Possible breakdown below the red register zone leading to further downside 3. Neutral/Wait-and-See (Black Arrow): Shows price could range before confirming direction Suggests waiting for a clear break above 3,305.930 for confirmation --- 📝 Observations: The chart combines support/resistance with trend reversal signals. Entry might be ideal if price tests and holds above the red zone, or breaks above 3,305. Typo note: "register zoon" should likely be "register zone". Would you like help interpreting this strategy in a trading plan or coding it into a trading bot/script?
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Rich_trader01
#CAKE/USDT#CAKE The price is moving within a descending channel on the 1-hour frame, adhering well to it, and is heading for a strong breakout and retest. We are seeing a bounce from the lower boundary of the descending channel, which is support at 2.65. We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that is about to be broken and retested, supporting the upward trend. We are looking for stability above the 100 Moving Average. Entry price: 2.72 First target: 2.82 Second target: 2.92 Third target: 3.06
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal
CPHL LONG TRADECPHL has been in bear channel which is actually a Bull flag – it performed a selling climax and then displayed a Bullish Reversal. It has also posted a HL, supported by VG. 🚨 TECHNICAL BUY CALL –CPHL 🚨 🎯BUY1: Rs. 84-87 📈 TP1 : Rs. 94 📈 TP2 : Rs. 99.9 🛑 STOP LOSS: BELOW Rs. 79 (Daily Close) 📊 RISK-REWARD: 1:3.4 Caution: Please buy on levels. Close at least 50% position size at TP1 and then trail SL to avoid losing incurred profits in case of unforeseen market conditions. PLEASE BOOST AND SHARE THE IDEA IF YOU FIND IT HELPFUL.
PSX:CPHLLong
by Mushtaque77
BTCUSD Breakdown Alert | Bearish Momentum Setup in PlayHello traders! After a strong uptrend, BTCUSD has now broken below the ascending trendline and is retesting from the underside — a classic bearish continuation signal. This could mark a key shift in market structure. 🔍 Key Observations: Initial consolidation acted as a launchpad for the prior move. Clean uptrend with higher highs and higher lows. Recent trendline break suggests weakening bullish momentum. Price is currently retesting the trendline from below — often a signal of incoming downside if confirmed. 📉 Bearish Scenario: If this retest holds, BTCUSD may drop toward $105,000, with the next major support around $102,400. A break below that zone could accelerate the downtrend. Targets / Support levels Short-term: $105,000 Major support: $102,400 ⚠ Risk Management: Stick to your trading plan — use stop-losses and size positions carefully. No setup is guaranteed. Follow price action, not the hype. 📊 What’s your bias? Bullish or Bearish? 👍 Like & 🔔 Follow for more technical setups! #CryptoAnalysis #BTCUSD #TrendlineBreak #TechnicalAnalysis #BearishSetup #TradingView #SupportAndResistance #PriceAction
Short
by James-Pipstr
#TON/USDT#TON The price is moving within a descending channel on the 1-hour frame, adhering well to it, and is heading for a strong breakout and retest. We are experiencing a rebound from the lower boundary of the descending channel, which is support at 3.20. We are experiencing a downtrend on the RSI indicator, which is about to break and retest, supporting the upward trend. We are looking for stability above the 100 Moving Average. Entry price: 3.30 First target: 3.41 Second target: 3.53 Third target: 3.69
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal
GBPJPY Technical Analysis! SELL! My dear subscribers, This is my opinion on the GBPJPY next move: The instrument tests an important psychological level 195.61 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 193.94 My Stop Loss - 196.32 About Used Indicators: On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
1
Why Do Trendlines, Chart Patterns Only Work Probabilistically?Why Do Resistance, Support, Trendlines, Fibonacci, and Chart Patterns Only Work Probabilistically? (Meaning they are sometimes accurate, sometimes not) In an uptrend, we follow the strategy of "buying at the bottom, selling at the top." But in a downtrend, what strategy should guide us? It’s the opposite: "shorting at the top and closing the short at the bottom." The approach is not much different from spot trading. We still use tools to identify tops and bottoms to execute our shorting plan and close positions. For BTC on the D1 timeframe, the trend remains bearish. According to my system, BTCUSDT formed a peak on D1 on May 27 and May 28, with two "has peak D1" signals. This suggests that if we follow a short strategy, we would take profits at the D1 bottom. In terms of price, we could wait around the $100k level to observe price action for profit-taking. Alternatively, using a bottom-detection system, we would close the position when a "has bottom" signal appears, regardless of whether the price hits $100k. It depends on the real-time market dynamics at that moment. The price might drop further to $95k or $93k, or it may not even reach $100k. Fixing a specific price level—whether it’s a resistance, support, trendline, or Fibonacci level—may not fully capture the overall real-time market context. This is why sometimes the price hits the exact fixed zone, but other times it overshoots, undershoots, or a larger timeframe intervenes and breaks these fixed zones. That’s because price zones, trendlines, resistance, support, and Fibonacci levels are based on historical context. In real-time, we are dealing with the present, which is vastly different from historical context. For example, differences in political leadership, monetary policies, wars, geopolitics, or capital inflows can all create disparities. This is why trendlines, resistance, support, Fibonacci levels, and chart patterns are not always accurate in the present or only work probabilistically. Stay sharp, brothers!
Short
by rainbow_sniper
GBPNZD Set To Fall! SELL! My dear followers, This is my opinion on the GBPNZD next move: The asset is approaching an important pivot point 2.2732 Bias - Bearish Safe Stop Loss - 2.2905 Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market. Goal - 2.2594 About Used Indicators: For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
3