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Wave Analysis

#202509 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: 300 point range last week and we closed near the middle of it. Bulls buy new lows and bears sell every rip close or above the 4h 20ema. Bear channel is still valid but it’s getting weaker. We have also touched my bull trend line from 2024-09 and market has formed a triangle with a nested bear wedge. No big moves, both sides make money. So either scalp the range or don’t look at this. Update after crypto reserve news spike: Bear channel could still hold and if it does, the move down will be even more violent because of so many new trapped traders. Above 97k the bear channel is dead and we continue sideways inside the previous range 90k - 110k. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 68 - 72 bull case: Bulls have to be content with buying new lows and scalping a couple of points. Every rip is sold and they just can’t catch a break. Until they have a daily close above 72 again, there is nothing going for them. Sure they keep new lows shallow and the bear trend is getting weaker but that does not help any bull if they don’t make higher highs again. Very low chance that bulls see this as a very broad bull channel where this leg down was a test of the breakout price 70. If you look at a weekly chart, we are still making higher lows and higher highs. Invalidation is below 67.8. bear case: Bears fear that the bull trend line from September is bigger support and the bear trend is getting weaker. That is likely a reason why we will probably see more sideways movement now and less new lows. Bears are still favored until we have higher highs above 72 again. Shorts below 71 are bad, no matter how you put it. Invalidation is above 72. short term: Neutral. Shorts close or above 71 are fine and longs below 69. medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: Bear trend is getting weaker but I still see this going sideways around 70 instead of a range expansion. current swing trade: None chart update: Updated bear channel.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
#202509 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: The bear breakout finally happened. First time I wrote about 75k was when we broke above 100k 3 months ago. This bear trend is now confirmed and the only question for me is do we get 1 or 2 legs more. For now my main target remains 75000 and everything below is a bonus. The 50% retracement for the whole bull market since 2022-11 is at 62k, but I highly doubt we can get there in the medium term. The big bull trend line and monthly 20ema is now my lowest medium target - around 68/70k. We have not touched the monthly 20ema since 2023-10. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 70k - 95k bull case: Bulls stopped the fall above the breakout price around 74k and they want to keep some of the bull gap open to keep the hopes of a continuation up alive. On the weekly and monthly chart it is still a bull trend until we break below the trend line currently at 65k. Bulls main objective is now to print higher lows and bounce to at least the daily ema around 92k. Trends can only be very strong, if pull-backs are shallow and many traders trapped in losing positions, so they have to cover once it’s clear that we will get nowhere near their entry price. If bulls can bounce this above 90k or even 94k, all bulls who previously bought the lows and bought them now as well, will be able to make money. Invalidation is below 70k. bear case: Bears showed strength by finally closing consecutive days below 90k and even dropped below 80k. Now they need to break below the breakout price at 74k and close the gap to the previous ath. Once they have accomplished that, this bull trend is much less strong and they can try to test down to the bull trend line around 68k, depending on when we get there. Last weeks selling is likely the W1 of a intermediate bear trend inside the bigger bull trend. Could it be the start of a bigger bear trend where we test down to the 50% retracement of the multi-year bull trend around 62k? Possible but irrelevant for now. Bears have to take it level by level. I have drawn two potential ways forward for this wave-series. Much less bearish would be a bigger two-legged move where the pull-back would reach up to 94k and the second leg down could stay above 75k, if it would even get there. Much more bearish alternative would be a measured move down to almost exactly the named 50% retracement at 62k. We could get there in a 5-wave series, which is also drawn on the chart. As always, price is likely much more probable than timing on the chart. Invalidation is above 95k. short term: Max bearish. Any pullback is a good short with a stop 97k. medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: 75000 is still my biggest target for 2025. Right now nothing is moving, so my targets are useless for any trade. Here is my year end special outlook from 2024-12-29 bear case: The pain trade is to the downside. There is no arguing about that fact. Only issue for bears is that bubbles can go on for longer than anyone’s account can handle. So selling right now with a stop 109k is reasonable but most bears want more confirmation. Below 90000 more bulls have to cover and this will accelerate down. My targets in order are the breakout retest around 75000 and if things get bad enough there, we go down to the 50% pullback and the bull trend line at 62500. There I expect the market to go sideways for more time and depending on how we get there, we can estimate new targets above or below. current swing trade: Looking to scale into shorts around 90k with stop 97k. chart update: Added potential bear channel and two wave-series.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
U.S. Tariffs Incoming: What’s Next for Gold?Trump's planned tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, set to take effect on March 4, along with an additional 10% levy on Chinese products, have heightened concerns about potential countermeasures and escalating trade tensions. As a result, during Monday’s Asian trading session, gold prices surged, as these policies strengthened demand for gold, which is traditionally seen as a hedge against rising costs. From a technical analysis perspective, the overall trend of the MARKETSCOM:GOLD has been bullish, as indicated by the formation of higher highs and higher lows. However, bearish pressure regained control last week, driving the price downward with significant bearish momentum. The previous candlestick experienced a liquidity sweep and rebounded, managed to close within the swap zone. Currently, the price is moving within the swap zone of 2854 - 2877. If it manages to close above this level, there is a high probability that the bullish trend will continue, leading to a retest of the previous high. Conversely, if the price fails to hold support within the swap zone, it will indicate that bearish forces have taken control, increasing the likelihood of further downward movement. Therefore, this is a critical level to monitor, as a breakout in either direction will likely determine the trend for the week.
MARKETSCOM:GOLD
by Marketscom
XRP/USD Short Trade Setup Analysis (9H Timeframe - Bitstamp)🔹 Current Setup: 📈 XRP experienced a strong move down from our previous entry at 2.84. Currently XRP has broken through and entered the middle parallel channels whilst respecting and testing their boundaries, verifying the channels validity as a true trading range thus far. At this moment we can see that XRP has broken down to the middle channel, breaking through the median/equilibrium line before now returning up to test the middle channels resistance level. 🔹Price appears to be respecting the level so far ($2.25), with early signs showing a potential break down from this level. 📉 Given our previous entry at 2.84 which remains open, we can now enter a new position here, upon touch of the middle channels upper resistance level. We want to use a tight stop loss, and a smaller amount of margin for this one, given that price is between higher timeframe support and resistance levels. We can see that the most recent high, formed via a candle wick sits at 2.361, so our stoploss should be placed just slightly above this level around 2.38 at which point if hit, would invalidate this trade. 🎯 This allows us to target our new level of 1.52, updated from Februarys 1.4 target identified by the -0.272 fib extension, and a monthly dynamic support.🎯 Previous Trade: Current Outlook: Risk/Reward = 1:6.6 📍 Key Resistance Levels (Potential Rejection Zones): - 🎯 $2.25 (Middle channels upper resistance) - 📍 Key Support Levels: - ❗ $2.10 (0.23 Fib retracement) - 🔻 $1.76 (100 Fib retracement) - 📉 Deeper Target: $1.52 - $1.40 XRP (Projected based on Fibonacci extensions, channel breakdown & monthly dynamic support) 📈 Bullish Scenario (Breakout Play) - 🟢 Entry: If price breaks above $2.38, our stop will be hit and we should also close our original short from 2.84. ✅ Justification: - 🔹 If price breaks and holds above $2.38, the bearish structure could be invalidated and price would find itself back within the higher parallel channels range. At this point it would be advised to close all positions and wait for confirmation in direction. 📉 Bearish Scenario (Primary Expectation) - ❌ Invalidation Level: Above $2.38 - 🔻 Downside Targets: - $2.10: 0.236 Fibonacci retracement - $1.76: 100 Fibonacci retracement - $1.52: Monthly dynamic support - $1.36 - $1.40 XRP: Final bearish target (0.272 Fib extension & channel bottom) ✅ Justification: - ❗ Price remains within a descending channel, signaling a continuation of the downtrend. - ❗ The ETF-driven pump appears to be a liquidity grab, leading to a likely reversal. - ❗ A rejection from $2.35 / the middle channels upper resistance, it would confirm bearish continuation, targeting the lower support zones. - ❗ Bitcoin still needs to come lower to test support, therefore, XRP is likely to fall further due to Bitcoins directing the broader market. ⚡ Key Takeaways: - 🔹 XRP is facing parallel channel resistance at $2.25, a likely rejection zone. - 🔹 A breakdown below $2.00 increases bearish pressure, targeting $1.52 XRP. - 🔹 Bearish bias remains unless price breaks & holds above $3.21. - 🔹 Expect price to follow the descending channel structure toward $1.52 - $1.40.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDShort
by Who-Is-Caerus
This setup looks very bullish! This chart shows a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern, which is a strong reversal signal. Here's a breakdown of the analysis: Key Observations: Inverse Head and Shoulders: The chart highlights an inverse head and shoulders pattern, a well-known bullish reversal pattern. The price is currently testing the neckline (resistance zone). A breakout above this level would confirm bullish momentum. Order Block (OB) and Invalid FVG: The price is currently at an order block (OB), a strong supply and demand zone. There is also an invalid fair value gap (FVG), which may act as additional support if a retest occurs. Bullish Path Projection: The red projected path suggests a pullback to the neckline (previous resistance turning into support) before a strong rally upward. The ultimate target looks to be around $100K+, based on the pattern breakout projection. Conclusion: If BTC breaks and holds above the neckline (~$86K), expect a strong bullish rally. A retest of the neckline before pushing higher is likely. If BTC fails to break out, there could be a temporary retracement before another attempt. Trade Idea: Entry: On a successful retest of the neckline (~$85.8K–$86K). Target: $100K+ (long-term). Invalidation: If BTC falls below $84K, the pattern is invalidated. This setup looks very bullish!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by AndyFrenzy
BTCUSD: Deep 4 or a shallow 2?The recent crash has everyone running for the hills. People forget Bitcoin is not up everyday and it also doesn't stay down forever. With the amount of selling, it is time for a bounce in the upcoming week or two. At that time, we need to see if the bounce happens in 3 waves or 5. If we see a 3 waves move, then the selling will most likely get more intense. For an intermediate degree wave 2, price needs to correct everything since Nov 2022 low at 15.6k. That is a massive distance to cover. Just minimum .764 retrace will take the price down to below 70 k and .618 retrace will take it at 50 k. At this price level, I am still not calling wave 2. Even it looks quite deep and steep for wave 4, it is not unheard of. So, until 73 k breaks, i am keeping my count, but the top target will come down between 118k - 136k. Let's see how things progress in the next few weeks.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by mukit1
EOSUSDT Buy opportunityEOSUSDT has completed Wave 2 within the current impulse wave cycle, positioning the market for a potential Wave 3 expansion, typically the strongest in an Elliott Wave sequence. The weekly timeframe RSI exhibits bullish divergence, indicating weakening bearish momentum and a possible shift in trend structure. Price is currently trading within a key accumulation zone, aligning with previous demand levels and Fibonacci retracement confluence. A sustained breakout from this region would confirm the initiation of Wave 3, targeting the projected Fibonacci extension levels. Profit-taking zones are outlined on the chart, with mid-term resistance areas acting as potential reaction points. A failure to hold the accumulation zone may signal further corrective movement before a larger expansion.
by weslad
2
Up for SPX500USDHi traders, Wow! Last week the price action of SPX500USD went exactly to the target as predicted in my outlook. On Monday it dropped and after a correction up it took the liquidity under the previous lows and filled the 4H FVG. I've updated the wave count. Now next week we could see a corrective upmove to the higher 4H FVG. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a small correction down to finish and after that a change in orderflow to bullish to trade longs. If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost and respectful comment. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. If you don't agree, that's fine but I don't need to know it. I do not provide signals. Don't be emotional, just trade! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EduwaveTrading
3
Ethereum at Key Support Zone: Is a Counter-Trend Setting Up?Ethereum (ETH) is currently in a strong bearish trend 📉, but it has traded into a key support zone 🛑 and seems overextended, in my opinion. Looking at the price action and market structure on the daily and four-hour timeframes, we’re now seeing Ethereum form higher highs and higher lows on the four-hour chart 📊. While it’s still early, if we see a break above the current range high on the four-hour timeframe, there could be an opportunity for a counter-trend trade 🔄, targeting equilibrium ⚖️ and a previous imbalance highlighted in the video. As always, this is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice 💡.
by fxtraderanthony