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Wave Analysis

EUR/USD | Major Shift – Is the Euro Reclaiming Strength?A major shift may be underway in the EUR/USD pair, potentially signaling the euro’s resurgence after a prolonged period of dollar dominance. Historical patterns suggest that the EUR/USD cycle closely mirrors the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) cycle in inverse correlation. Given the recent inflection points, we may be entering a phase where the dollar weakens while the euro strengthens. Historical Cycles & The DXY Correlation Examining past EUR/USD bottoms, we see a recurring pattern roughly every 15–20 years, aligning inversely with DXY peaks: 1971: EUR/USD bottomed as the dollar peaked before entering a long decline. 1985: The Plaza Accord led to a major DXY peak, followed by a strong euro uptrend. 2000: The dollar peaked again, marking another significant euro rally. 2022: The most recent DXY peak (~114), coinciding with an EUR/USD low. Each of these key reversals reflects a broad shift in global monetary policy, trade balances, and economic cycles. If history is repeating, the 2022 dollar peak may have set the stage for a multi-year euro recovery, just as previous DXY tops did. Key Drivers to Watch Monetary Policy Divergence: The Fed's tightening cycle may be nearing its end, while the ECB remains cautious on rate cuts. Economic Momentum: If the U.S. economy slows while the Eurozone stabilizes, capital flows may shift towards the euro. Investor Sentiment: As DXY trends lower, it could accelerate EUR/USD bullish momentum, as seen in previous cycles. What’s Next? With the euro holding above historically significant lows and the DXY showing signs of cyclical weakening, traders should watch for confirmations of this potential long-term reversal. If past trends hold, we could be witnessing the early stages of another major EUR/USD bull cycle.
Long
by adiyatcoto
Alphabet ($GOOGL) Nearing Completion of 5-Wave DeclineIn our latest Elliott Wave analysis of Alphabet ( NASDAQ:GOOGL ) on the 30 minute chart, we observe a clear 5-wave impulse structure unfolding to the downside, originating from the February 5, 2025 peak. This decline aligns with the broader corrective pattern, and we believe NASDAQ:GOOGL is now in the final stages of this bearish move before a larger recovery takes shape. Let’s break down the structure and what to expect next. Wave Structure Breakdown The chart below illustrates that NASDAQ:GOOGL reached a significant high on February 5, 2025, at 209.51. From this peak, the stock initiated a 5-wave impulse decline: - Wave ((1)): The first leg down concluded at 156.72, marking a sharp initial decline from the February 5 high. - Wave ((2)): A corrective rally followed, retracing part of the decline and peaking at 171.28, completing wave ((2)) as the 30 minute chart below shows. - Wave ((3)): The decline resumed with wave ((3)), which extended lower to 150.66.  - Wave ((4)): A counter-trend rally unfolded in a 3-wave structure, labeled (W)-(X)-(Y) on the chart, reaching a high of 159.23 on April 3, 2025, as indicated on the chart. This peak marked the completion of wave ((4)). - Wave ((5)): The current leg lower began after the April 3 peak at 159.23. As of the latest data on April 3, 2025, NASDAQ:GOOGL has reached 152.76, as shown on the chart, and appears to be in the final stages of wave ((5)). Current Position and Invalidation Level The chart highlights an invalidation level at 171.34 (the “RIGHT SIDE+” line in red). As long as NASDAQ:GOOGL remains below this level, the bearish outlook for wave ((5)) remains valid. With the current price at 152.76, wave ((5)) is likely approaching its conclusion soon. It should not go below 138.7, otherwise wave ((3)) will be the shortest wave. Alphabet (GOOGL) 30 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart What’s Next: A Larger 3-Wave Rally Upon the completion of wave ((5)), we expect NASDAQ:GOOGL to initiate a larger 3-wave corrective rally. This should be end a higher-degree wave b. The rally should unfold in a 3-wave pattern (A-B-C) and could target a retracement toward the 170.6 area, where prior wave ((2)) levels may act as resistance.
NASDAQ:GOOGL
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Gold and Elliott Wave Theory.Wave 2(Green) was a Zigzag and we should expect a Flat correction for a Wave 4. An A Wave forms shortly after Wave 3 was formed and a Wave B should follow. B's have 3 waves-- two impulses and one corrective-- and in this case Wave A was a simple Wave that was corrected by a Flat for B(Black). Our last impulse is a 5 Wave move and is marked in Black. We are currently on Wave 4 which will be a Flat because 2 was a zigzag. We are currently on the last phases of the B wave(Blue) that comes before a C(Blue) also a 4(Black) in this case. A retest at the 261.8% would spark a Wave 4.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by machariavictor017
1
Capitulation Might be Close, but A Big Low Could Be Also.I've explained for a while my idea if 5500 isn't support for SPX then we see a capitulation period to the 5100 sort of area. I think the case for this is picking up increasing merit. For a while I've not really been sure what to expect if that happened. My natural tendency to fade moves would make me naturally bullish but some different outcomes I considered would have that move being an important break and us only consolidating before heading lower. With the way all of this is shaping up, I think if I see a capitulation period now I have a strong bull bias. I do think we might be setting up a much larger decline overall but a sharp drop here would usually give some sort of bull trap. There are different ranges of bull traps. Shallow, mid and deep and spike out. Modern day markets run perpetually on hard-mode so it's reasonable to expect the most tricky one. Big bull bias for the immediate term if we put in a capitulation swing. I built up a position into the rally today. Which was not a lot of fun during sections of the day and harrowing for a moment late in the day but has me positioned well into the rally. I'm looking for a move down to under 5200 and close to 5100. My target would be 5150 or so at biggest with aggressive locking in near 5200. If this move hits (especially if it hits with bad news), will be super bullish for the near term - but I would consider this an important bear break if it comes.
SP:SPXShort
by holeyprofit
3
USDT.D Launched in 2014, Tether is a blockchain-enabled platform designed to facilitate the use of fiat currencies in a digital manner. Tether works to disrupt the conventional financial system via a more modern approach to money. Tether has made headway by giving customers the ability to transact with traditional currencies across the blockchain, without the inherent volatility and complexity typically associated with a digital currency. As the first blockchain-enabled platform to facilitate the digital use of traditional currencies (a familiar, stable accounting unit), Tether has democratised cross-border transactions across the blockchain.
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.DShort
by Cryptonix-Empire
1
SPX On Verge Of A Bearish Decent - Weekly ViewThe S&P 500 is pointing at a long descent downwards based upon simple technical analysis. To further bolster our projection of the market it is no secret the recent trade wars are going to have a major negative impact upon the US & world economy for obvious reasons. With this in mind we can paint a clear picture of where price action is going to head. The question remains where do we enter short? As we can see in our chart we have broke the current upwards bullish weekly trend line #2. Price action has quickly took a swing downwards to our second trend line #1. In short trend lines simply put are the bottom lows of a bullish market. We can clearly define these trend lines over a long period of time where price action has risen, declined, and then continued its current trend upwards. By marking three bottom or more bottoms lows in a bullish market we can project bottom prices of where price action should never cross below. So what happens when price crosses below these said trend lines? Easy, price action will decrease. This is the case on our chart viewing for trend #2. As for where price action will continue downwards and stop we can simply view the past history of the market to determine this. Viewing trend line #1 we can see this was the bottom start of the bullish market was 2023 Oct on the weekly chart. Price action has increased aprox. 48 percent with no more than a 8.5 percent in the summer of 2024. That is until our King Donny Trump entered office. From the top of last peak in this bullish cycle SPX has fallen roughly 6.5 percent. Price has clearly broken trend line #2 and is now testing the resistance of price at trend line #1. If price shall break the trend line #2 we will easily fall into our support zone #1. Support zones are nothing more than where price action consolidated sideways for a period of time. These zones are like magnets. Price almost always 'pulls' towards these zones as it is a proven history of the market resistance and support. The earning moving average(EMA) of the SPX is even more concerning. The red(10 day), blue(21 day), yellow(50day) are the thin lines just below the candles in the chart. The EMA is exactly what it sounds like. The past earning moving average over the past 'x' amount of days. Viewing the EMA data allows you see if the price average is above, on par, or below 'x' amount of past days. This is very important key metric to determine the average market price over a period of time as you can imagine. Even more so important is when price declines below the EMA line. Price going below a 50, 100, or 200 day moving average are levels we want to watch. Currently price action has bounced right off the 50 day EMA. No surprise as this is a very important resistance level day traders will buy only to sell off shortly after. Crossing below the 50 day(yellow line) is known as the 'death cross' for a reason. If price crosses below it we can certainly count on a decline in price action into support zone #1 with easy.
SP:SPXShort
by remarkableCake99061
2
EUR/JPY – Bearish Setup with Elliott Wave AnalysisThis EUR/JPY daily chart shows an Elliott Wave analysis, suggesting a possible bearish continuation. The current wave structure indicates the pair is moving through the final phase of a five-wave impulsive sequence. The market has completed three waves of a larger impulsive cycle, with Wave (4) The price movement between Wave (2) and Wave (4) shows a pause or slowdown after going up. This means the buyers are losing strength, and the price may soon start to fall If the price gets rejected near 162.900 , it could confirm further downside. If it breaks below the 159.674 level, it may speed up the decline, with a possible target around 155.526 level.
Short
by Money_Dictators
Elliott Wave | Bearish End Confirmed? | Last Chance Before the DBINANCE:SOLUSDT The current structure suggests we are approaching a key decision point. Price has completed an a-b-b correction and is now reacting within the 61.8%-88.7% Fibonacci retracement zone, which could trigger a relief bounce before further decline. 📉 **Bearish Outlook:** - The recent structure confirms a completed a-b-c move, leading to a potential Wave (B) retracement. - The final bearish target lies in the "End of Bear" zone (~109 USD), where a final capitulation may occur. - If we break far below **109 USD**, expect an accelerated sell-off. 📈 **Bullish Scenario?** - The 78.6%-88.7% Fibonacci retracement zone could push SOL towards a short-term bounce before resuming the bearish trend. - A valid long trade is possible if this support holds. ⚠️ Key Levels to Watch: ✅ Bullish Rejection Zone: 78.6% - 88.7% Fibo ❌ Break Below 105 USD = Full Bearish Confirmation --- ### 📌 **Trading Plan:** 1️⃣ Potential Short-Term Long if 78.6% - 88.7% Fibo holds. 2️⃣ Target: Resistance before wave (C) completes. 3️⃣ Short Confirmation** after rejection OR break below 105 USD. ‼️ Risk Management: - If price fails to hold, a deeper correction is expected. - Trade with proper stop-loss & confirmations! 💬 What do you think? Will we see a short-term bounce before the bear takes over?
Long
by ElliotXSolana
Is gold going to be eclipsed? ------------------------- Timeframe: 240 Min ------------------------- The price action suggests a completed impulse structure originating from the 2833 low, with gold now trading at an all-time high. Based on cluster zones and Fibonacci extensions, wave (5) still has the potential to extend toward the 3150-3200 range. This zone represents a key resistance level where buying momentum may slow down, signaling an impending shift in market dynamics. Once wave (5) completes, it will mark the end of wave ((3)) of a higher degree, setting the stage for a corrective move. A retracement toward the previous wave (4) level is expected as wave ((4)) develops, aligning with historical corrective behavior after extended rallies. This phase will provide crucial insights into the market’s next major move. Stay tuned for further updates.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Money_Dictators