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Wavec

UPDATED Apr 4, 2018 - Bitcoin in it's darkest hourHello gang. So a quick update. I think that drop has invalidated Scenario B, which took wave 4 to the All-Time-High Trend line 2. In the least, it's definitely hurt the probability of it going there. I've removed it from the graph, to simplify the TA. The scenario I've shown here are Scenario A ... this assumes that we are still in mini wave 3 of an impulse wave down. It basically treats the small rally and reversal as "noise". It assumes we will have a hard bounce off 6k (double bottom test) before starting mini wave 4. Mini wave 4 stops short of the wave 1 bottom, and bounces off a Fib line (0.786) before making it's final plunge to the bottom. This assumes mini wave 5 is shorter than mini wave 3, which keeps Elliot Wave theory in check. The box shown at the bottom right is the target range for the bottom of mini wave 5 keeping these "rules" in mind, and there is support at 5.4k, 5k, 4.5k and 4k that all fall in that box, so anyone of those could be the point we bounce from. The other scenario I've shown here is Scenario C (B has been deleted) ... this assumes we finished mini wave 3 at 6.4k a few days back, and the recent rally to 7.5k is mini wave 4 completed. This means we would be in mini-wave 5 now, and the final wave to the mid-term bottom (and perhaps the very bottom). I've explained that comment below. If Scenario C is correct, then the box on the lower left is the potential target for the mini and grand wave 5 bottom, and there is support at 6k (double bottom test before a good bounce), 5.4k and 5k. Anyone of those could be the point we bounce from. A double bottom test at 6k to confirm "the bottom" would make sense in my mind ... but who knows what the big guys have planned to do with BTC. OK, so could this be the final bottom after a grand impulse wave from 20k to ??. Some will say that my grand wave is incorrect, and wave 1 is from 20k to 6k ... possible. That would put us in grand wave 3 right now, and therefore after some reprieve in a grand wave 4 ... we still have to form grand wave 5 and this would take us to a very low price (perhaps then those predicting a bottom at 1k to 3k will finally claim victory, but I think it will be months before we can get to those levels). Others have drawn the same lines and called it an ABC correction (20k to 6k is wave A, 6k to 11.7k is wave B, and now we are in wave C). This theory essentially means the grand wave 5 I have shown in this chart is wave C, and the outcome is the same. Remember, only a fool counts on one outcome! Please do not use this information for investment purposes. This is for educational purposes only.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MAGICMARK
EURUSD SHORT - A possible 1100pips to close the gap The same count still applies as per my previous count but I am getting more and more convinced that this upcoming wave C will have a massive dropped when the FEDs hike up the FFR tonight! As per my previous count, I am up 150pips, and looking to close a further 1100pips at the close of the gap at 1.07359 - EXCITING TIMES AHEAD! Wave C possible extensions are marked out at wave A vs C at 100%, 1.618% and 2.618% Let's see what happens today!
by donaldsaw
16
Bitcoin/USD - Support seen near 3,300Bitcoin is currently correcting in wave 4. My preferred count for wave 4 is, that a running triangle is developing. Wave C is currently unfolding and should see support near 3,300 for a rally in wave D closer to 4,378 or slightly above. Before turning lower in wave E to complete wave 4 and setting the stage for a strong rally in wave 5. The ongoing decline in wave C, should mark the lowest point for the ongoing correction in wave 4. Looking back at the previous impulsive rallies, we can see that the fifth wave normally extends, if this also is the case this time, then wave 5 could move all the way up to 9,150. The alternate count for wave 4 is that an expanded flat correction is developing. If this is the case, then the correction in wave 4 should be close to completion for a new impulsive rally in wave 5. Under this count a break directly above 4,980 should be seen. This is my alternate count, but none the less a valid count.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by EWS
Crude Oil - Break above 49.42 calls for rally to at least 67.20Crude oil is just a split hair from confirming that the triangle consolidation in wave B is complete and wave C higher to 67.20 is developing. A break above minor resistance at 49.42 will be the first strong indication that wave B has completed and wave C higher is developing, while a break above the top of wave D/ at 50.43 will confirm the expected rally higher to 67.20. Support is now seen at 47.00 and 45.58. An unexpected break below the later, will revive the triangle consolidation and call for a move closer to 43.82 to complete wave E/ and B.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by EWS
2
Brent Crude Oil is breaking resistance for a rally towards 70.00Brent Crude Oil bottomed at the modified Pitchfork support-line near 27.00 and has since rallied nicely higher. Brent Crude Oil is now break the resistance-line from the May 2015 high at 69.59, which calls for a continuation higher towards 70.00, which also is where the pitchfork resistance-line is seen in mid-December 2017. Depending on the price-action after the 70.00 target has been hit will determine, whether the rally from May 2015 only is a correction or a new impulsive rally. For now let's concentrate on the rally higher to 70.00.
TVC:UKOILLong
by EWS
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Waitng For Retrace.ETHUSD Update: Price action is stuck within the 324 to 334 minor resistance zone. I am still waiting for a retest of the 306 to mid 290s support for an opportunity to buy back in. It is a waiting game. At the moment price is fluctuating with no progress in either direction. These coins seem to take turns and go in spurts, and in order to attract order flow, this market needs some positive news. The fact that it lost momentum within the current resistance zone is a sign that it has more room for a correction which can lead price into the 306 support area. I have mentioned it in my previous report, and I will mention it again. In terms of Elliott Wave, corrective waves typically unfold in 3 legs. The third leg, which is Wave C, is often an emotional wave that contains 5 distinct subwaves. Since this market has not made any progress upon revisiting the current resistance, I believe that the subdegree Wave 2 needs to complete a Wave C which can lead price back to the support area that I have been patiently waiting for. If this happens, great. If not, and it goes higher without me, that's okay too because I have nothing at risk. I do not know when this market is going to break out to the upside. All I know is the bigger picture price structure continues to indicate strength, even in the face of a minor correction. A break of the 338 high will signal the continuation up toward the next resistance which is the 380 area. And since there is a lack of momentum, there is a greater chance of false breakouts which is why I do not buy into these. The best anyone can do is come up with a number of likely scenarios and prepare for them. I do not prefer to buy breakouts, I prefer pullbacks and I am prepared to miss this move if the market cannot provide an attractive level for me to enter. I am also prepared to buy if the market offers the opportunity that I am looking for at the 306 level or just below. I let the market tell me what to do, I do not impose my own ideas on the market. Also I get a lot of questions about this so I want to make it clear. I do not place blind buy orders at the support just because my analysis says there is a level at a particular range of prices. IF price reaches my support, then the market has my attention. That is when I look for some form of validation like a reversal pattern to justify a long. This is the process that helps to stack probabilities in my favor. If I just place blind buy orders at the level, my outcome will be random. Many participants who have a very limited understanding of technical analysis seem to think it is about absolute predictions, or expect precise answers or instructions. The best we can do is uncover clues and align our intent with the intent of the market to achieve a positive outcome. And charts offer tons of clues in order to do this effectively. If price retraces to my anticipated support area, and I manage to get long, my stop will be placed around the high 280s and my targets will be set around 345 and 370 levels. The reward to risk even without having exact prices is still over 2:! which is acceptable. In summary, this market is still poised to go higher in the long run, but is hesitant. Current Wave structure points to a higher possibility of a Wave C which can lead price back to the 306 area. IF that scenario unfolds, I will be looking for buy signals. If on the other hand price pushes beyond the 338 level, it can work its way up to the 380 area, but at this rate, I can't justify the risk at these prices. Speculation in any financial market is far from an exact science, and any professional evaluation will provide multiple scenarios because the goal is to be prepared, not to impulsively react. The market will decide, and then we adjust to the new information. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
28
Wave C Short coming for EUR .... Hi All, It's been a while since I posted so thought I'd update a quick count on this pair as I am anticipating a shape wave C short for the upcoming week and possibly the next few weeks. Since my last post, we saw EU spike up back to the levels back when Trump won the US elections last year; and now, EU is in a corrective wave down to potentially close the gap back in round 1 announcement of the French Elections. Quick count from the high at 1.12959: Wave A: WXY (Double ZZ combo wave down) where W vs Y wave terminated at 50% Wave B: Flat B wave - This wave potentially has one more high to hit 0.618% Fib retracement of wave A but could also be terminating at this current 0.50% fib retracement level. Wave C: 5 wave impulse is next which could close the gap at 1.0730 Overall count for this move will be a Flat correction (3-3-5) where C wave could extend to 2.618% of wave A. This week will be very telling so keep an eye out of a possible shape rally from the EUR before falling quickly in wave C. Good luck with the upcoming week of trading. Cheers Don
Short
by donaldsaw
1
Wave C coming up Short coming....Hi All, I've been following all USD pairs closely and I am anticipating a buy back from the dollar across the major USD pairs and AUD looks like it is will follow suit. I've been tracking this pair since the low made in Jan of 0.6822 and post the impulse up, a corrective structure has been in play that has been a bit confusing but this count makes good sense from an EW perspective and a possible short entry opportunity could be presenting itself very soon. Possible count: Wave 1: From the low of 0.6822, a clean impulse is visible counted in major waves and sub waves. Wave 2: Blue A - Clean 5 wave impulse down Blue B - I have this as a B triangle with contracting highs and lows made up of 5 X ABC moves (Classic triangle). I have also shared the wave E of B count below for a possible termination point before this pair falls. Forecast wave: Blue C - This is the possible next move to the downside which should make a new low just below Blue A wave if this count is correct before continuing the rally back up. Feel free to share your thoughts and alternate views on my count. Cheers, Don Wave E of B Count
Short
by donaldsaw
Possible Flat correction...Hi All, Ive been racking my brains to see why EUR keeps rallying even though maximum fib extensions of 686% has been reached; but I think I have a possible solution which makes perfect sense! IT'S A FLAT CORRECTION!!!!!! (3-3-5) In the bigger picture from my previous post, I am expecting a bigger ABC correction to close the gap which I think is still happening due to the nature of the previous impulse wave reaching the max fib extensions as I mentioned above signifying a move has finished. In terms of how this current move fits into that scenario, wave (a) and (b) are complete and (c) is currently in play to complete the flat - once (c) wave is done, the bigger wave A will be complete. We have a few big USD announcements (NFP in particular) this week which could help to push this pair down as EUR is extremely overbought. Let's see what the next 2 days of trading brings as my shorts are still holding nicely. Happy Trading! Don
Short
by donaldsaw
Possible LONG with Bearish Cypher confirmation entry pointIt seems Starbucks is continuing it's uptrend price action (Daily Chart) with a possible LONG entry based on a Bearish Cypher pattern formation if it becomes validated on the Hourly chart, to complete a Wave C correction/consolidation. Chart pattern suggests a high probability trade going LONG on this in continuation of uptrend, based on an Impulse Wave 1 completion on the Intermediate period. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DISCLAIMER: This chart is for sharing and educational purposes only and is not intended to be a signal service or similar. This chart analysis is only provided as my own opinion, based on my own analysis and comes with absolutely no warranty that this analysis is correct, whatsoever. Do not trade this chart if you do not have your own strategy. Trade only with your own strategy at your own risk. Plan your trade and trade your plan... and IF in doubt, stay out. .....::::: If you like this chart, please click on the THUMBS UP ! :::::..... ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NASDAQ:SBUXLong
by UnknownUnicorn661419
Possible SHORT on GOLD before Harmonic confirmation of LONG?It seems there is a good chance that we have a possible SHORT on breakout of structure (after fibonacci move) Possible Entry#1. MACD, RSI and Stochastic all indicate bearish trend and overbought status. SMA indicates current bullish movement, which is expected to form a corrective structure before a SHORT setup can be taken. Harmonics suggest possible formation of Bullish Cypher pattern, IF price range of Entry#2 is achieved. A LONG can be taken if the harmonic pattern is confirmed, all the way up to the upper channel trend line for a completion of a wave C. I will take a SHORT on this if SMA and structure confirms downward movement. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DISCLAIMER: This chart is for sharing and educational purposes only and is not intended to be a signal service or similar. This chart analysis is only provided as my own opinion, based on my own analysis and comes with absolutely no warranty that this analysis is correct, whatsoever. Do not trade this chart if you do not have your own strategy. Trade only with your own strategy at your own risk. Plan your trade and trade your plan... and IF in doubt, stay out. .....::::: If you like this chart, please click on the THUMBS UP ! :::::..... ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX:XAUUSDShort
by UnknownUnicorn661419
1