Wavetheory
SAND - Can still see 2$This is the local count that I get when looking at the previous 4 wave count which is a possible A wave down, as a full macro retracement. The red wave count shows possible target points when following the down trend, basing off the macro model I am following shown below
The green wave count is going off if instead what I am calling a wave 5 is actually truncated and completed, or is an initial impulse wave following an ABC correction (what I have labeled as 1, 2, 3)
However I have been opening only shorts as my perspective of the market is still bearish.
BTC Update - Wave 5? 🤔Update on my previous BTC Descending Triangle idea, price broke above the proposed entry level and ran up as expected. Price currently trades nearly 5.5% above that entry level, down from the high noted as Wave 3 on this chart, more than 7% above the entry.
If looking at Elliot Waves, Wave 3 high met almost perfectly previous pivot high from December 7th. Price retraced perfectly back to the 0.382 Fib level on Wave 4 before beginning the 5th Elliot Wave up.
It looks highly likely that we're going to enter back into the Supply Zone, and we have a nice big round number of 52k sat at the top of this Supply Zone, with the previous 2 highs falling just short of breaking this number.
If we manage to break the 52k mark it could be smooth sailing up to the next key level to complete the 5th Wave.
Alternatively, a rejection from the Supply Zone could see us headed back down in the region of that 0.382 Fib level that coincides with recent resistance.
Overall bias remains long, keeping a close eye on price action around the Supply Zone with the potential to run up if we break 52k.
Comment your thoughts or questions below! ✔
This is not financial advice. Do your own research and be treat your capital responsibly.
GBP/NZD ShortWe expect this to be the trade of the week as well as NZD/CAD. Our fundamental bias on this pair is tilted to the upside. we expect NZD strength due to the interest rate hike circle they are on. Market is expecting the RBNZ to raise rates tomorrow and our bias is negative for GBP since we expect the BOE to disappoint the market and leave rates unchanged.
NZD/CHF long positionThe RBNZ on their last meeting started the tapering program so that a bullish move for the NZD hence after tapering its rates hike. on the bigger structure the market is completing a WXY patterns that's in the same direction as the fundamental outlook. Note any correction will offer short term buys and any positive developments in the economic data should fuel the support for the NZD and put pressure on CHF
NZD/CAD Long positionWe expect this to be the trade of the week as well as GBP/NZD. Our fundamental bias on this pair is tilted to the upside. we expect NZD strength due to the interest rate hike circle they are on. Market is expecting the RBNZ to raise rates tomorrow and bring forth they rate hike projections. We expect the CAD to be pressured as the oil prices are expected to drop by the intervention of the US and the OPEC. Technically we are looking at the pair to complete wave 3 in the minor degree.
USD/CHF LongWe expect the market to complete the 3rd wave in the minor degree. Our fundamental outlook on the pair is bullish due to the expectations of the federal reserve to hike interest rates sooner because inflation levels are very high. The CHF is expected to be pressured as the global economy is improving since it's a safe heaven currency. The CHF we also be pressured because the swiss interest rates are at record lows.
USD/JPY LongOur fundamental bias is tilted to the upside for this pair as the FED is expected to hike rates earlier due to inflation fears in the US economy. The JPY is expected to be pressured due to the BOJ assuring the market that they are not planning to raise rates anytime soon. We structurally expect the pair to complete a WXY in a higher timeframe.
Current wave structure of US30 heading into next week.A majority of the beginning of this week we saw US30 decline, almost at a rapid pace. This was due to the end of a long term Elliot Wave Cycle 5 at the top, then that rapid decline was an ABC(3) wave correction downwards which is where we just had our first W1 and W2 of a new cycle, with W3 in the midst of an impulse wave.
💨𝙀𝙒 𝙋𝙖𝙩𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙣: 𝙎𝙞𝙣𝙜𝙡𝙚 𝙕𝙞𝙜𝙯𝙖𝙜🌊●●● 𝙎𝙞𝙣𝙜𝙡𝙚 𝙕𝙞𝙜𝙯𝙖𝙜 (SZ or ZZ)
❗❗ 𝙍𝙪𝙡𝙚𝙨
● A zigzag always subdivides into three waves.
● Wave A always subdivides into an impulse or leading diagonal .
● Wave C always subdivides into an impulse or ending diagonal .
● Wave B always subdivides into a zigzag, flat , triangle or combination thereof .
● Wave B never moves beyond the start of wave A .
● Wave B always ends within the price territory of wave A .
● Wave C almost always ends beyond the end of wave A . (failure to comply with this requirement is called «truncation» *
* Guideline, but should be followed as a rule
❗ 𝙂𝙪𝙞𝙙𝙚𝙡𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨
● Wave C should not fail to reach the end of wave A by more than 10% of the length of wave A .
● In a zigzag, the length of wave C is usually equal to that of wave A , although it is not uncommonly 1.618 or .618 times the length of wave A (rarely 2.618 )
● Wave B typically retraces 38 to 79 percent of wave A .
● If wave B is a contracting triangle, it will typically retrace 38 to 50 percent of wave A .
● If wave B is a running contracting triangle , it will typically retrace between 10 and 40 percent of wave A .
● If wave B is a zigzag, it will typically retrace 50 to 79 percent of wave A .
● In a zigzag, if wave A is a leading diagonal , then we would not expect to see an ending diagonal for wave C .
● A line connecting the ends of waves A and C is often parallel to a line connecting the end of wave B and the start of wave A . (Forecasting guideline: Wave C often ends upon reaching a line drawn from the end of wave A that is parallel to a line connecting the start of wave A and the end of wave B .)
Elliott Wave Principal 2005 and Q&A EWI.
Wave Pattern - Ending Diagonal & Smart Money ConceptHere I was able to label the start of a 5 wave structure (1,2,3,4,5), the 5th wave is currently being formed (which is an ending diagonal and it isn't complete yet but I've labeled it as well. In this 5th wave which is an ending diagonal, I've also used the smart money concept to identify a distribution pattern which is in play, the break of structure which shows the market bias has changed, a stop hunt (liquidity raid) which further confirms the interests of large financial institutions and where their orders are. These two theories are the confluences that suggest a trend reversal.