$AAPL Bearish Credit Spread ( 2 day exp )Bearish Credit Spread on AAPL . Watching the current support at 216.5 for a breakdown into the end of this week.
Entry 216.60
Max profit 215.00
Break even 216.38
0.78:1 risk/reward
Weakness
Feeling the rushLevels are holding, downtrend seems to be losing a lot of strength
shorts are at a high ( doesn't mean much but its something)
Bog is Looking bullish
- Longs seem like the right play
~Gemini
This Is The Chart That Will Make Your Wallet Full - EURUSD H4STAGE 1: A small correction has occurred along with the prevailing trend.
The correction shows continuous signs of weakness and it is not expected that it will become significant later.
Therefore, the market's price is expected to continue on a large supply.
Moreover, the RSI is currently hitting a trend-line, tested and re-tested multiple times before.
Our predictions is that price will trend to the 1.1523 area and later return with a large demand to the previous Major High .
Enter: 1.16040
Stop-Loss: 1.16530
Target: 1.15230
-
- John Wood.
Have a Successful-Trading, reader!
ETHUSD: Lagging Price Action Hints At Relative Weakness.ETHUSD update: Price is beginning to perk up as Bitcoin pushes the 7K level. 300 continues to serve as a psychological resistance and does not offer an attractive location to buy by our standards. In fact, this market is still relatively weak compared to Bitcoin since it has not made a new high.
At S.C., we are still waiting for these markets to at least show a structure that represents strength. Even though this price action is bullish, the overall configuration is unfolding as more of a consolidation. 320 defines the range high and needs to be taken out in order to prove this market is stronger than it has been.
Like I wrote in my Litecoin article earlier today for S.C. followers, lagging markets are more vulnerable to a Bitcoin retrace. If BTC pulls back to 6700, this market can easily retest the 260s. If we are wrong, and this market is truly strong, it will prove itself first by closing above 320.
Less experienced traders do not realize that stacking favorable probabilities is worth more than a random signal to buy or sell. We would rather wait until structure favors longs before continuing to add more inventory or participate in swing trades. This means there are occasions when giving up the better prices in favor of a higher probability environment is most appropriate. This market is in one of those situations.
In summary, many often equate short term trading to gambling. One of the key differences is trading is a game where all the rules are defined by the player. And the player can choose to play only when conditions are most favorable. In contrast to casino games, all of the rules are defined by the house and the conditions ALWAYS favor the house.
Ethereum and Litecoin are still presenting unfavorable conditions even though they are pushing higher. They should be taking out their recent high or better as Bitcoin pushes higher, and they are not. This hidden weakness often takes newer traders by surprise because they focus on time frames that are too small and have no sense of context.
At S.C., we do not make up trades especially when the environment does not justify the risk. We will continue to wait on the sidelines until price structure improves. Keep in mind we still maintain inventory in both of these coins and have no intention of selling at these prices. Patience is the most valuable skill a trader can employ and this is a great situation to practice it.
ETHUSD: Relative Weakness Vulnerability Means More Waiting.ETHUSD Update: New buy trigger appears while Bitcoin steam rolls toward its next high. Price is now challenging its steeper bearish trend line which is a positive. BTC is doing its part which is what we have been anticipating, while the concern is alts like ETH are still underperforming. This relationship can be interpreted as a sign of relative weakness which makes these particular coins very vulnerable to a retrace in BTC.
At S.C., we have been sharing ideas with our members about how we have put coins like ETH on standby until they can prove themselves in terms of price structure. This is a defensive measure that helps us maintain our objective of deploying capital toward the prospects that offer the greatest probability of a favorable outcome. We would rather give up the better prices in exchange for better probability.
This is where most who are new to this arena or investing in general get it wrong. Market timing is more about organization than anything else, not big profits. Following a simple set of well defined rules like avoiding relatively weak markets are what protect our portfolios from getting too heavy into a market that has greater potential to go lower.
Having a focus on profits, which is instinctive, is the first mistake. This is what leads to impulsive behavior and the gambling mentality. One of the most common errors I see are forced trades along with mismatched expectations. This would be when you are putting on trades every day (day trading) and expecting swing trade profit targets every time. If the broader moves are what you prefer, then high quality setups are going to be much less frequent compared to day trades. 2 - 3 high probability swing trade setups are considered a busy WEEK.
In summary, in order for us to start putting on swing trades or accumulating more inventory, ETH needs to close much higher. We share these precise details with our followers. We also emphasize the role and value of patience when it comes to waiting for a market to comply with criteria.
Professionals define a good trade by how well it adhered to the criteria that triggered it, not by how much profit it generated. A negative trade for all the right reasons is a good trade, while a positive trade for all the wrong reasons is no better than a loss. The wrong reasons will erode your account over the long run.
Consistency comes from structure and having a well defined plan. The objective is to isolate favorable conditions in light of the relative risk. And these conditions are presented by the market, not made up or imposed by "gut feel" or ego. They are also infrequent, which means more time will be spent watching and evaluating than actual trading.
Trading should be equated with waiting, which is far from exciting or glamorous. Marketers capitalize on the immediate gratification tendency of the herd by putting out information that caters to their need for action. And most new to this business who are still controlled by greed and fear do not have enough experience to see through their agenda. If putting capital to work efficiently is your goal, the focus should be developing a perspective and a simple plan to serve as your guide. The best place to begin is by learning to interpret a clean chart without any outside opinions or bias.
Elliott Wave Analysis: Natural Gas Found ResistanceOANDA:NATGASUSD dropped sharply in the beginning of February and then we have seen slow and sideways corrective movement within channel range for the last 5 months, clearly in three waves, which might finally found resistance around 50% Fibonacci retracement just above 3.0 level.
Current price action on a smaller time frame looks like it's forming a clear bearish setup, so be aware of more weakness here. Actually, it can be very impulsive and it can be headed back to 2.6 lows or maybe even lower, especially if we get a confirmation, which would be a break below channel support line and 2.81 level.
Even if we get something more complex here, we remain bearish as long as it's trading below 3.035 highs, which is our invalidation level.
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
USD SHORT TERM WEAKNESS APPROACHING?As you can see from the weekly chart above there could be a larger timeframe Head & Shoulders in play.
Price is currently rejecting the $95.00 level again this week which could indicate USD losing some of its recent momentum.
If price produces another bearish close on the week we could see USD prices back into the key area of $91.00.
For the head and shoulders pattern to play out we need to see a right shoulder formed and the neckline break. But predicting the higher timeframes and using them as a base to work from hold the key to being on the right side of the market the majority of the time. If price breaks higher the idea is invalid and USD should strengthen significantly!!
US Tech 100 - one to watchSound quality is not great because I'm away from home, working on my laptop. Important things in this:
1. This is a parabolic chart in the last few months.
2. The uptrend on the weekly and daily time frames appear to show some weakening.
Likely continuation short term pattern.Low volume, weakness on a key support level, overall market dullness after a downtrend and a huge descending triangle on the daily chart all indicate that we may see Bitcoin drop further in the following days. Although a short term upwards move to 7000-7500$ cannot be ruled out. Best course of action is to wait for a valid breakout in either direction, then trade accordingly.
More likely the short scenario will play out:
Target 1: 6100$
Target 2: 6000$
Target 3: 5700$
Target 4: 5100$
Target 5: 5000$
Stop-Loss: 6600$
If the long scenario plays out:
Target 1: 6750$
Target 2: 7000$
Target 3: 7500$
Stop-Loss: 6300$
Risk safely, be patient, be brave and may God be with you!
Channelxauusd
we can short the Gold why?
1-upper line of channel
2-AB=CD
3-upper line of Triangle
4-support to resistance(too many times reacted there and back to the 1360)
5-weakness of buyyer
6-(61.8 %)fibounachi retracement
take profit is the lower line channel
stop loss is 1310
EURUSD Target achieved at 1.1721 Further weakness likely though21st May EURUSD Week Ahead
EUR has reached the medium term downside target at 1.1721
today after a low at 1.1718.
Although it's rallied away from here as London opened as it
should do, it's not likely to get very far, though.
The first resistance potential is here at 1.1763, then a minor
level at 1.1786 and then heavy at 1.1821-1.1836.
It will need assistance from NY when it opens to boost it
higher to this latter range at which point it should start to
come off again.
Looking a little further out, the chart pattern indicates that
sooner or later the 1.1718 level will also give way, leading to
a another period of sustained EUR weakness back to 1.1558
with lesser support potential at 1.1665 and 1.1616 being
likeliest levels to expect minor near term counter rallies to
occur during the descent.
MONERO/BTC (XMR) An Ugly Trend-less Market until?MONERO/BTC (XMR token/BITCOIN) 720 minute/12 hour semi log scale, candlestick wicks removed.
5/19/18, 9:20 PM EST, by Michael Mansfield.
Hi trader friends! Monero, a privacy token/digital currency, is looking trendless and quite ugly! But let's give this a shot anyway since we've had a request
for an opion.
90 DAY OUTLOOK: Sorry, more uglines. ;-)
Seriously, without a trend, the outlook is likely flat to a "bit" higher until three of the shown cycles peak then head down after either June 2-3, June 7, or June 13th. To make it simple, more weakness is likely after early June. Then, we are likely to see lower prices until either July 13-15th, July 23, or possibly August 12, 2018 as the longer cycles bottom and turn up on those dates. I would expect a trend to develop one way or the other in July or August (perhaps up) and continue into October or longer.
If we get an acceleration up or down after the cycle turning point dates above, then we may finally be out of this larger flat pattern
CYCLES: MIXED
There are four shown cycle sine waves shown and two vertical cycle lines separate from the sine wave cycles.
Until we get more data, it is unclear what the larger trend cycle up or down is. For now it is a trendless market.
TRADER TIPS:
Balance Point Line (BPL) is the horizontal dashed medium blue line. It basically splits the observed price history in half, but
without the candlestick wicks this time. Note how the price resists or finds support around the BPL.
VOLUME: WEAK
Volume keeps drying up contributing to the endless trend-less sideways move. Watch out after the June cycle tops...
BOTTOM LINE:
Look for breaks below the Balance Point line (more likely), or possibly above the 38% retracement line (orange, less likely) that is also highlighted in black horizontal line around where the prices are now and until a cycle breakout time-frames, then possibly up. I am not a fan of this coin at this time. Let's see what the market says over the next 90 days.
DISCLOSURE:
This analysis is meant for educational purposes only. You trade at your own risk!
Cheers!
Michael Mansfield CIO
EURUSD Target achieved, counter-rally followed by more weakness EURUSD
After another rally back to the upper parallel precisely EUR has fallen to the target at 1.1915 after an intra-day low at 1.1910.
It should now attempt a feeble rally back to 1.1946 and the upper parallel at best before it falls away again. And unless it can find a double bottom at 1.1910 when it next comes off the likelihood remains that it will decline further still over the more medium term in stages to 1.1880 then 1.1815 and finally to 1.1721
BTC: Another Big Bart Simpson Drop?BTC has had a good run, but looks to be slowing its roll up here near a big 786 fib (the strongest correction fib), the downtrend line on the log, and the 200-day EMA right above it.
BTC has reached for these three resistance levels on a somewhat overstretched run absent a true pullback so far to cool off RSI levels and form a much needed elliott wave down on higher timeframes to set up the next wave up. Both the 4h and 1D RSI are at very high levels where corrections have typically taken place historically.
Beware the FOMO, entering up here carries high risk. My estimate is the super bears could be amassing short positions soon enough.
LTCUSD: Less Structural Progress Is A Sign Of Weakness?LTCUSD update: This market rallied off the double bottom along with the BTC squeeze, but is not holding up well compared to the other major coins. While BTC took out some key resistance levels during the dramatic bullish move, this market has not. This relative weakness may be a problem if the next BTC retrace returns to proportionate support levels.
I do not get into why LTC is lagging in terms of fundamentals (that's Andrew's specialty), all I know is price is lagging which can be a reflection of internal problems that will eventually surface in the fundamental research. What stands out is that fact that price could not break the 134 resistance level (.382 of recent bearish structure). Until it does, it is more reasonable to anticipate a retest of the 109 low or 102 extreme support boundary if BTC experiences a proportional retrace which could be 1K points.
The one minor bullish sign that this market is presenting is the newly established trend line which can also act as a support level as this market settles. IF price retraces to the 118 level which is a reversal zone boundary relative to the 137 recent low, that is an attractive area to anticipate bullish reversal formations.
Since this market is slow to break the required resistance levels to prove its strength, I would either be extremely conservative if a buy signal appears, or avoid this market all together and trade something with clearer structure. In the bigger picture this market is still poised to go higher, its just that the short term structure is not impressive in comparison to the other major coins.
In summary, if you are a long term holder, there is no reason to make any adjustments yet. I just would not aggressively add until the price structure starts to show clearer signs of strength. Maybe this market will play catch up for whatever reason. There is no simple explanation for why this market is lagging, but as a price action trader, I am not concerned with why. It either fits my criteria for a swing trade, or it doesn't. If it doesn't, there are plenty of other markets to discover new opportunities in. This is why we cover a wide range of markets on S.C., not just the coins.
Questions and comments welcome.
BTC to Correct Soon: MicroAnalysisMicroanalysis: "Forest for the trees but the trees still make the forest"
BTC bulls are petering out on momentum and volume in the short-term and just double-topped, failing a wedge breakout. While the wedge could still break to the upside after a small pullback, it still probably wouldn't see much traction as numerous indicators point to a correction soon.
A retracement to the 161.8 and 50% fibs shown here would give bulls the most healthy pullback to slingshot them higher. To check out the other reasons for this, see my other recent analyses for BTC.
BTC Showing Signs of Another Drop: MicroAnalysisMicroanalysis: "Forrest for the trees but the trees still make the forrest"
BTC just failed another momentum-building attempt, being wicked down hard beneath 7k and bull flagging with very little strength on the breakout. While there is still a decent chance it will continue higher to test of the top of the wedge we've been in, and could even temporarily break above it, this is a sign that weak buy pressure still hasn't changed, meaning many bulls are still waiting for lower prices before stepping in to ramp up the action across the market.
Facebook, roots don't grow to the center of the earthHere we can see a very scary drop off a cliff. Bears are clearly in control of this market. The industry XLK is not looking great on the short term. I am bearish Facebook but I'd be wary of those lows , lets see what price does there. ZOOM or SUPPORT
AAPL: Buy Opportunity on Further WeaknessApple AAPL
It took 18 months for Apple to double from the low at 91.5 to
a highs at 180-183 before a 16% decine to 150 (WD Gann
would have loved this stock as much as GE, probably;)
Like FB, Apple has closed out the week sitting on top of
the structure to its left. And in classical fashion, if the
165-164 levels fail to hold from here it's then likely Apple will
fall away further, to 160 initially and then, after a bounce
there, back to 155 and to 150 at lowest, most likely. Look to use
any further weakness here in the early part of the week as a
potential near term buying opportunity
Elliott wave Analysis: GBPNZD Taking The Bearish PathLately GBPNZD breached the lower Elliott wave channel line around the 1.9205 region, which can suggest a bearish continuation to be in progress. Notice that rally from 1.8614 level is in three waves, which is also a sign of a temporary correction, so more weakness may follow.
All said, a further break below the 1.9004 level will confirm more weakness.
USD Short term Weakness! just a mark up of the Wave count.. look for short term weakness on the Dollar. and trade against it by buying other instruments.
GU up
EU up
AU up
BTCUSD up
USDJPY down
USDCHF down
