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WEAT

Socrates on Wheat "Nobody is qualified to become a statesman who is entirely ignorant of the problem of wheat." - Socrates And what a problem this can turn out to be! Wheat and other agriculture commodities have been hammered lately, leading many talking heads to say "Inflation has peaked". For the short term, they are probably right. However, what they are not considering is wheat had a 10+year basing formation which it broke out of and likely has started a multi year bull market. This little correction we've had looks like it's close to being done. Like Natural Gas, Agricultural commodities may start taking off again very soon. We are at support with Weekly hidden bull divergences. It's possible this goes slightly lower, but collecting here slowly is for me, an ideal area to buy. If the long term chart of Wheat is a cup and handle, we could see a tripling of prices over the next few years. For those who don't trade futures, General ag commodities ETF is DBA, Wheat ETF is WEAT. The charts are very similar.
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by the_sunship
2
Is Wheat Making a Bottom?Wheat Technicals (September): September wheat futures are on the verge of getting out above the upper end of our pivot pocket, 815. If the Bulls can achieve a close above here, we could see the market make an attempt at last week’s highs, 834-843 ½. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 834-843 ½***, 898 ½-903****, 960-970*** Pivot: 800-815 Support: 754-765 ¾**, 739-749*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZW1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Wheat Futures Rally Wheat Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net sellers of 372 futures/options contracts through July 19th. This expands their net short position to 6,816 contracts. Broken down that is 61,465 longs VS 68,281 shorts. Fundamentals: As with the corn market, wheat futures are rallying this morning on concern that the deal to open up Ukrainian ports will not stand. This after Russia and Ukraine inked a deal on Friday. By Saturday morning, there were two missile strikes in Odessa. Technicals: September wheat futures were down another 17 ¾ cents last week, taking prices to their lowest level since the first week of February. Wheat futures are higher this morning, a silver lining for the Bulls, but they have their work cut out for them following the last several months of intense pressure. The first hurdle is to achieve a close out above the psychologically significant $8.00 handle. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 839-849**, 898 ½-903****, 960-970*** Pivot: 800-815 Support: 765 ¾**, 739-749*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZW1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Corn Futures Recover Friday's Losses Corn Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net sellers of 25,871 futures/options contracts through July 19th. 24,916 of this was long liquidation, just 955 were new short positions. This shrinks their net long position to 125,303 contracts. Broken down that is 202,400 longs VS 77,097 shorts. Fundamentals: Corn futures had another rough week, with the December contract losing 39 ½ cents. Cooler and wetter forecasts working their way into 1-2 week forecast didn’t offer any support. Russia and Ukraine signed a deal on Friday that would open up Ukrainian ports. There were skeptics out of the gate and now even more as Russia bombed Odessa Saturday morning. The strike didn’t appear to have damaged any grain storage, but it certainly doesn’t help build confidence that the agreement will stand. Technicals (September): Corn futures are rebounding this morning, erasing the losses from Friday’s session. Friday morning, we moved our bias from outright Neutral to Neutral/Bullish, aka cautiously optimistic. The Bulls want to see a conviction close out above our pivot pocket, 574 ¼-579 ¼, to help encourage additional upward momentum towards our resistance pocket, 586-589. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 586-589****, 624-630***, 645-652 ½*** Pivot: 574 ¼-579 ¼ Support: 542 ¼-547 ¾*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZC1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Wheat Futures Conoslidate Wheat Fundamentals: This morning’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of 511,100 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were down 50 percent from the previous week and 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. Technicals: Wheat futures are holding their own this morning, relative to the pressure we are seeing in corn and beans. We mentioned in recent Tech Talks that this could be the case. Corn and wheat have retraced a large portion of their higher move from the beginning of the year, which may help prices enter into more of a consolidation phase, near term. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 839-849**, 898 ½-903****, 960-970*** Pivot: 800-815 Support: 739-749*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZW1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Wheat futures linger near the low end of the rangeWheat Fundamentals: Yesterday’s weekly export inspections report came in at 185,989 metric tons, well below the 532,898 we saw in the same week last year. The weekly Crop Progress report showed good/excellent ratings for spring wheat at 71%. 68% of the crop is headed. Winter wheat harvest is 70% complete. Technicals (September): Wheat futures continue to consolidate near previous resistance levels and the psychologically significant $8.00 handle. If the Bulls fail to defend our pivot pocket, we could see the selling pressure pick back up. A close out above 815 would feel would have the opposite effect. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 839-849**, 898 ½-903****, 960-970*** Pivot: 800-815 Support: 739-749*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZW1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Soybeans Gap Higher, Will it Hold?Soybeans Technicacls: The market sling-shotted higher last night. Our first resistance in Friday’s report was 1495-1505. Our next resistance pocket didn’t come in until 1560-1566, which the market came very close to tagging last night. As with corn, we are in the sell rallies camp. A conviction close or consecutive close back above $16.00 would neutralize that bias. First support/our pivot point comes in from 1513 ¼-1516 ¼. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 1560-1566***, 1592-1597*** Pivot: 1513 ¼-1516 ½ Support: 1495-1505***, 1452-1457***, 1413 3/4-1424 1/4***, 1400-1403**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZSQ2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Will Corn Hold the Early Morning Strength?Grain futures came out of the gates strong last night but are retreating as weather forecasts continue to change. This is to be expected this time of year. There is a USDA report tomorrow, but weather forecasts this week will likely have a bigger impact on prices. We will have estimates out later this afternoon. Corn Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net sellers of 55,748 futures/options contracts through July 5th. 30,446 was long liquidation and 25,302 were new shorts. This shrinks the net long position to 172,867 futures/options. Broken down, that is 244,288 longs VS 71,421 shorts. This is the smallest position they’ve held since October 2020. If you’re new to grain trading, you may think that funds nearly always hold a net long position (like they do in live cattle). That couldn’t be further from the truth. Technicals: Corn futures were 16 cents higher last week and are taking on another 16+ cents on in the Sunday night/Monday morning trade. Early last week we moved our bias from Bearish territory to Bullish territory, siting significant support levels and an extreme low in the RSI. Alone, those are not enough to outright flip our bias, but together it was. The market gaped higher to start this week’s trade. This has taken prices back to the secondary breakdown point from June 30th, near 650. Last week we talked about this area being a potential selling opportunity for those who exited shorts or initiated longs against support last week. That thesis is still in play, moving our bias back into Bearish territory. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 667**, 678 ¼-684 ½**, 697-701**** Pivot: 645-652 ½ Support: 624-630***, 586-589****, 574 ¼-579 ¼*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCU2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Time for a Relief Rally?Wheat Fundamentals: Yesterday's crop progress report showed spring wheat ratings at 66% good/excellent, 7% better than estimates. Winter wheat is 54% harvested, a hair behind expectations. Yesterday's weekly export inspections came in at 111,830 metric tons, well below the range of estimates. Technicals: Our bias has been in bearish territory for a while now, but the market retreated back to some significant levels. Previous resistance in December and February from 800-815, was the breakout point on February 22nd. The full retracement in our eyes represents a short-term opportunity for relief in what is also a deeply oversold market. The chart still looks ugly as sin, but as with corn, there's a good risk/reward trade to the buyside at these levels, whether that be short covering or initiating a new position. We are moving our bias out of bearish territory to outright Neutral. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 898 ½-903****, 960-970*** Pivot: 839-849 Support: 800-815****, 739-749*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZWU2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Soybeans Retreat to the 200-Day Moving Average Soybeans Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net sellers of 29,914 futures/options contracts through June 28th. Majority of this was long liquidation, 26,432 contracts. This shrinks their net long position to 124,498 futures/options. Fundamentals: Late last week there were rumors circulating that 8 cargoes of soybeans were cancelled; this would certainly help explain the extensive selling we saw on Friday. Scattered rains over the weekend may help prices see some continuation of long liquidation. Technicals: The big drop on Friday was ugly on the screen, especially when considering the reversal on Thursday off resistance near $16.00. The market finished roughly 90 cents off those Thursday highs and are now threatening to take out the recent lows1494 ¾-1500. A break and close below here would open the door for a run at the 200-day moving average, 1456. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 1560-1566***, 1592-1597*** Pivot: 1533 ½ Support: 1494 ¾-1500****, 1456** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZSQ2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Corn: Continued Long Liquidation Corn Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net sellers of 36,649 futures/options contracts through June 28th. This was all long liquidation, 38,185 contracts, with a tiny bit of short covering. This shrinks their net long position to 228,612 futures/options. Seasonal Trends in Play: Short September corn from 6/13-7/27. This has been profitable for 13 of the last 15 years with the average gain being roughly 33 cents, or $1,650 per one 5,000-bushel contract. Fundamentals: Scattered showers over the weekend have many traders looking for a lower open in the corn market. Stone X (one of the multiple FCM’s we use) raised their Brazilian crop estimate to 119.3mmt, up from 116.8mmt. Technicals: Corn futures broke lower on Thursday, trading to the 200-day moving average. On Friday, that gave way. If the Bulls fail to reclaim ground above 630, we could see the long liquidation continues. The RSI has not showed signs of being this oversold since the spring of 2020. If the Bulls can climb back above that pocket, we could see a retracement of the breakdown from Thursday, closer to 645-652 ½. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 645-652 ½****, 678 ¼-684 ½**, 697-701**** Pivot: 624-630 Support: 586-589 ¼****, 574 ¼-579 ¼*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCU2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Weat Continues Lower Wheat Technicals (September): September wheat futures continued their descent yesterday, breaking and closing below the 200-day moving average for the first time in this contract's lifetime (September 2022 futures). This opens the door for a drop down near 800 which is where the market started accelerating to the upside during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Market moves like this often overshoot breakout points, so a trade with the $7 handle in the near future wouldn’t be out of the question. Resistance above the 200-day moving average (901 ½) doesn’t come in until closer to 960. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 960-970***, 1028 ¼-1037 ½**** Pivot: 898 ½-903 Support: 839-849**, 800*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZWU2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Wheat Futures Stage a Recovery Rally Wheat Technicals: Wheat futures are attempting to rebound back towards our resistance pocket, 960-970, previously this was support. If the Bulls cannot achieve a conviction close back above this pocket, we could see the selling pick back up. With that said, a breakout and close above here could spark a wave of short covering, with little significant resistance until about 1030. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 960-970***, 1028 ¼-1037 ½**** Support: 898 ½-903****, 839-849*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZWU2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Wheat Futures Start to Stabilize Wheat Techncials (September): The market has been in free fall for the last week after breaking below the low end of the range and the 100-day moving average. The market is trying to find its footing in the early morning trade, but the Bulls have their work cut out for them to repair the immense amount of technical damage that has been done since breaking down. The first hurdle come in from 960-970. Consecutive closes above there could spur prices to retrace the “scene of the crime” aka the breakdown point from last week, which is well above the market. On the support side of things, 898 ½-903 is the first pocket. This represents previously important price points and the 200-day moving average. A break and close below this pocket and we could see the selling accelerate yet again. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 960-970***, 1028 ¼-1037 ½**** Support: 898 ½-903****, 839-849*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZWU2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine