EUR/USD Trading Analysis – Falling Wedge Breakout StrategyChart Overview
The EUR/USD 1-hour chart presents a classic falling wedge pattern, which is a bullish reversal setup indicating that selling momentum is weakening and a breakout to the upside is imminent. This chart provides a structured trading plan, highlighting support and resistance levels, entry points, stop-loss placement, and a target price.
Traders can use this setup to capitalize on the potential bullish move while effectively managing risk. Let’s break it down step by step.
1. Understanding the Falling Wedge Pattern
A falling wedge is formed when price action moves within two downward-sloping trendlines that converge. It signals decreasing bearish pressure, as the price forms lower highs and lower lows within a narrowing range. The decreasing range indicates that sellers are losing control, and an upside breakout is likely.
In this chart, we observe the following key characteristics of a falling wedge:
✅ Two converging downward trendlines that contain price movement.
✅ Lower highs and lower lows showing seller exhaustion.
✅ Decreasing volume as the price approaches the breakout zone.
✅ Support near 1.08000, which has held price several times before.
A breakout above the wedge signals a shift from bearish to bullish sentiment, making this a strong trade setup.
2. Key Support & Resistance Levels
🔹 Support Level (Demand Zone)
The horizontal blue zone at 1.07898 – 1.08000 is a critical support level.
This level has been tested multiple times, making it a strong demand zone where buyers step in.
The falling wedge bottom aligns with this area, reinforcing its importance.
If price stays above this zone, it confirms the potential for a bullish breakout.
🔹 Resistance Level (Supply Zone)
The resistance zone at 1.09300 - 1.09839 has acted as a barrier to upward movement.
Price previously reversed from this zone, making it a logical take-profit area.
If the breakout happens, this level will be tested again.
A break above 1.09839 would signal further bullish momentum.
3. Trading Strategy – Step-by-Step Execution
📌 Entry Confirmation
To enter this trade with confidence, traders should wait for a confirmed breakout above the wedge.
A strong bullish candle breaking above the wedge’s upper trendline signals entry.
Ideally, a pullback and retest of the breakout level would provide additional confirmation before entering long.
📌 Stop-Loss Placement
Risk management is key, and stop-loss placement should be strategic to avoid unnecessary losses.
A stop-loss is set just below 1.07898, slightly under the recent low.
This placement ensures protection against false breakouts.
📌 Take-Profit Target
The take-profit target is set at 1.09839, aligning with key resistance and the projected wedge breakout distance.
This level has historically acted as resistance, making it an ideal zone to exit profits.
Partial profit-taking can be considered near 1.09300, before the final target.
📌 Risk-to-Reward Ratio
With a tight stop-loss and a higher profit target, this trade offers a favorable risk-reward ratio (RRR).
A minimum RRR of 1:3 is recommended, meaning potential reward is three times the risk taken.
4. Expected Market Behavior & Possible Scenarios
📊 Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout Confirmation 🚀
If price breaks and closes above the wedge, we expect a rally towards 1.09300 - 1.09839.
Pullback to retest the breakout zone would further confirm bullish strength.
Strong volume would validate the breakout, leading to a high-probability move.
📉 Scenario 2: Bearish Breakdown (Invalidation) ❌
If price breaks below 1.07898, the bullish setup is invalidated.
A downside move could push the price lower, possibly towards 1.07500 or below.
Traders should exit long positions if this scenario unfolds.
5. Additional Technical Indicators for Confirmation
To strengthen this trade setup, traders can use:
✅ RSI (Relative Strength Index) – Look for RSI divergence or a move above 50, confirming bullish strength.
✅ MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) – A bullish crossover on MACD would reinforce the breakout.
✅ Volume Analysis – A spike in volume at the breakout level adds confidence in the move.
6. Conclusion & Trading Plan
This falling wedge setup suggests a high-probability bullish breakout if the price confirms above the resistance zone.
🔹 Trading Plan Summary:
✅ Wait for a breakout above the wedge before entering.
✅ Confirm breakout with a retest or strong bullish candle.
✅ Set stop-loss below 1.07898 to limit downside risk.
✅ Take profit at 1.09839, securing profits at resistance.
This strategy offers an excellent risk-to-reward ratio, making it a well-structured trade setup. Always manage risk and avoid premature entries without confirmation.
📌 TradingView Tags for Maximum Visibility
#EURUSD #Forex #TechnicalAnalysis #FallingWedge #Breakout #PriceAction #ForexSignals #SupportResistance #TradingSetup #DayTrading #SwingTrading
Wedge
Silver (XAG/USD) – Rising Wedge Breakdown & Bearish Setup📌 Overview
This 1-hour chart of Silver (XAG/USD) presents a textbook Rising Wedge pattern, which is known as a bearish reversal signal. The price was in a strong uptrend but started showing signs of buyer exhaustion, leading to a breakdown from the wedge formation.
The chart clearly identifies:
✅ A Rising Wedge formation
✅ Resistance Level where price faced multiple rejections
✅ Breakdown Confirmation and shift in trend direction
✅ Projected Target & Stop Loss Zones
This setup suggests a strong potential for further downside movement in silver prices. Now, let’s break it down step by step like a professional trader.
🔹 Key Technical Analysis Breakdown
1️⃣ Rising Wedge Pattern – The Bearish Setup
The Rising Wedge is a bearish reversal pattern that forms when price action moves higher within two converging trendlines. The slope of the lower trendline is steeper than the upper trendline, meaning that buyers are getting weaker.
This pattern suggests that even though the price is rising, bullish momentum is fading.
Once the price breaks below the wedge, it confirms a bearish trend.
🔸 Characteristics of this Wedge:
📌 Multiple Higher Highs & Higher Lows – But with decreasing strength
📌 Narrowing Price Action – Indicates weaker buying power
📌 Breakdown Below Support Line – Confirms the bearish move
2️⃣ Resistance Level – Key Price Rejection Zone
The price tested the Resistance Level multiple times before breaking down. This area is where sellers overpowered buyers, preventing further upside movement.
The resistance zone was a liquidity area, meaning large institutional traders likely placed sell orders here.
The price attempted to push higher but failed, showing that demand was exhausted.
Once rejection happened, selling pressure increased, and the breakdown followed.
3️⃣ Breakdown Confirmation – Bearish Momentum Kicks In
After the wedge broke down, the price started moving in a structured downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows. This confirms that the breakdown was valid and that the trend has shifted.
🔹 Signs of Breakdown Strength:
✅ Strong Bearish Candles – Indicating aggressive selling
✅ No Immediate Recovery – Suggests sellers are in control
✅ Lower Highs Forming – Bearish trend structure confirmed
4️⃣ Risk Management – Stop Loss & Target Zones
A well-planned trade must include a Stop Loss and a Target to manage risk effectively.
📌 Stop Loss Placement (33.95)
Placing a Stop Loss just above the resistance level protects against false breakouts.
If the price goes back above 33.95, it would invalidate the bearish setup.
📌 Profit Target (31.96)
The target is based on the measured move projection, meaning the expected price drop is equal to the height of the wedge at its widest point.
If the price reaches 31.96, traders can lock in profits.
📌 Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR)
The setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, making it a high-probability trade.
5️⃣ Expected Price Movement – Bearish Outlook
From here, we can expect the following price movement:
📉 Scenario 1: Continuation of Downtrend (High Probability)
The price will likely form lower highs and lower lows on its way to 31.96.
Each small rally should be met with selling pressure.
📈 Scenario 2: False Breakdown (Low Probability but Possible)
If the price moves back above 33.95, the wedge breakdown will be invalid.
This could lead to a bullish reversal instead.
6️⃣ Final Thoughts – How to Trade This Setup?
This Rising Wedge Breakdown provides an excellent short-selling opportunity. Here’s how a professional trader would approach it:
✅ 🔹 Entry Strategy:
Short after a retest of the broken wedge support
Confirmation of lower highs ensures trend continuation
✅ 🔹 Risk Management:
Place Stop Loss above 33.95
Take profits around 31.96
✅ 🔹 Confirmation Signals to Watch:
Lower highs forming after breakdown
Increased selling volume on bearish candles
Price respecting the downtrend structure
🔔 Conclusion – Bearish Bias Confirmed
🔻 Trend Shift: The breakdown signals a potential trend reversal in silver.
🔻 Bearish Targets: The price is expected to fall toward 31.96 in the coming sessions.
🔻 High-Probability Trade: Strong technical reasons support a bearish outlook.
🚨 Watch for further confirmations and manage risk effectively! 📊💰
$JPM Navigating a Narrow ChannelJPM has 2 plots playing out, a rising wedge nested with a larger broadening wedge. We have negative divergence showing up on TSI & RSI showing that we might reach an early peak in current weekly cycle. Though price is above the a horizontal resistance, there is a higher probability that this is a false breakout.
A weekly swing high can be a signal for an entry with expectation we break below wedge support.
BTCUSD Bitcoin Rising Wedge Breakdown – Professional AnalysisBitcoin's price action is forming a Rising Wedge pattern on the 1-hour chart, a well-known bearish reversal formation. This pattern suggests that although the price has been making higher highs and higher lows, the upward momentum is weakening. Historically, when a rising wedge breaks to the downside, it often leads to strong downward movement, making it an ideal shorting opportunity.
This analysis will cover the pattern formation, key support and resistance levels, price action expectations, trading strategy, and risk management to ensure a well-informed trade setup.
1. Chart Pattern Breakdown: Understanding the Rising Wedge
Formation of the Rising Wedge
The price has been moving within two converging trendlines (black lines), forming a wedge shape.
The slope of both the upper and lower trendlines is positive, indicating an uptrend, but the lower trendline is steeper, suggesting weakening bullish pressure.
As Bitcoin moves higher, buying volume is declining, indicating that buyers are losing control.
The price has tested the upper resistance trendline multiple times, failing to break above it, further confirming bearish exhaustion.
The lower trendline has acted as strong support, but multiple touches suggest a possible breakdown soon.
Why This Pattern is Bearish
The rising wedge is inherently bearish because it signals that although the price is rising, the upward movement is slowing down. Eventually, the price is likely to break below the lower support trendline, triggering a sharp sell-off.
A breakdown from this wedge structure would confirm the start of a downtrend, making it an excellent opportunity for short traders.
2. Key Technical Levels to Watch
Resistance Level (~$86,000 - $86,500) - Strong Sell Zone
Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to break above this zone, indicating heavy selling pressure.
If the price unexpectedly moves above this level, the bearish setup would be invalidated.
Support Level (~$80,000 - $80,500) - Breakdown Zone
This support level has held strong multiple times.
If BTC loses this zone, it will likely trigger a massive drop due to stop-loss orders being hit and panic selling.
Stop Loss ($88,062) - Risk Management
A stop loss above $88,062 ensures protection against unexpected bullish breakouts.
This level is placed just above recent highs to minimize the risk of premature stop-outs.
Target Level ($75,718) - Profit Objective
The projected price target is based on measuring the height of the wedge and applying it to the breakout point.
This level also aligns with a major historical support zone, where buyers might step in.
3. Trading Setup & Strategy
Bearish Trading Plan - Short Setup
📌 Entry:
Enter short after Bitcoin breaks below the wedge’s lower support and confirms the breakdown by retesting support as new resistance.
Ideal entry price is around $81,500 - $82,000 after confirmation.
📌 Stop Loss:
Place above $88,062, which is beyond the wedge’s upper resistance.
This protects against unexpected bullish breakouts.
📌 Take Profit:
First target: $78,000 (psychological support).
Final target: $75,718 (technical breakdown target).
Confirmation Signals for a Strong Short Trade
✔ Candle Close Below Support – A 1-hour candle closing below the wedge confirms a breakdown.
✔ Increase in Selling Volume – Rising bearish volume supports downward momentum.
✔ Retest of Broken Support as Resistance – If the price retests the wedge’s lower trendline and fails to reclaim it, it confirms further downside.
4. Risk Management & Considerations
Risk-to-Reward Ratio: The trade offers a 3:1 risk-reward ratio, making it highly favorable.
Market Conditions: External news events, institutional activity, or macroeconomic trends (like inflation reports) could impact price action.
Bear Trap Possibility: If Bitcoin breaks below but quickly reclaims support, it could be a fakeout, so wait for confirmation before entering.
5. Alternative Scenario – When to Invalidate the Bearish Outlook?
Although the primary expectation is a bearish breakdown, we must consider alternate scenarios:
🚨 Bullish Invalidation: What if Bitcoin Rallies?
If Bitcoin breaks above the resistance zone at $86,500 - $88,000, the rising wedge breakdown would be invalidated. In that case:
✅ A breakout above $88,062 could trigger a short squeeze, pushing BTC toward $90,000+.
✅ Bulls will regain control, shifting the trend to bullish continuation instead of reversal.
🔹 In such a case, traders should exit short positions and re-evaluate market conditions before re-entering trades.
6. Conclusion – Trading Plan Summary
📊 Current Bias: Bearish 📉
🔹 Pattern: Rising Wedge (Breakdown Expected)
🔹 Entry: Short after wedge breakdown & confirmation
🔹 Stop Loss: Above $88,062
🔹 Target: $75,718
Bitcoin is forming a classic Rising Wedge, which historically leads to strong downward movement once it breaks support. If BTC follows the expected scenario, a high-probability short trade is in play, targeting a decline toward $75,718. However, traders must wait for confirmation and manage risk effectively to avoid fakeouts.
📢 Stay updated, follow price action closely, and trade responsibly! 🚀
DJT/SPX comparisonBearish case for equities.
Chart comparing DJT and SPX. DJT in wave ((c)) of regular flat, SPX in wave ((c)) of expanded flat.
SPX showing ending diagonal (wedge) to complete wave ((b)).
Bottom of SPX pitchfork (blue line) broke support and now acting as resistance.
This count anticipates each market to soon have a large (15-20%) 5-wave impulsive move down, DJT to complete wave 5 of (3) of ((c)) and SPX to complete wave (3) of ((c)).
After this proposed move, each market will have completed its wave (3) of ((c)).
I would expect wave (4) to be zigzag corrections for DJT and SPX before large wave (5)'s
to take price down towards March 2020 lows.
GOLD → Consolidation (correction) before growth to $3100FX:XAUUSD is going into consolidation after strong growth on the back of dollar correction. The metal may test deeper support areas before attempting a new high
Gold is correcting, but remains in an uptrend
The decline in quotations may be seen as a buying opportunity, given the economic uncertainty due to Trump's tariffs and expectations of Fed rate cuts.
The Fed reiterated its forecast of two rate cuts in 2025 despite Powell's cautious comments. Gold is further supported by rising inflation risks and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Resistance levels: 3045, 3057
Support levels: 3024, trending, 3004
Reaction to support is weakening, even amid the uptrend. Gold may stay in this consolidation until the middle of next week, or it may try to break out of the consolidation to retest deeper support zones, such as the rising trend line or the 3004 imbalance zone, from which the growth may resume.
Regards R. Linda!
EUR/JPY Trading Setup – Falling Wedge Breakout Potential1. Overview of the Market Structure
The EUR/JPY daily chart presents a falling wedge pattern, which is a classic bullish reversal setup. This pattern has been forming for several months, indicating that the price has been consolidating within a narrowing range. The falling wedge typically suggests that selling pressure is weakening, and a potential breakout to the upside could follow.
The chart also highlights key support and resistance zones, along with a well-defined trading setup based on technical confluences.
2. Key Technical Levels
Support Level: ~ 155.819 (Marked as Stop Loss)
This level has acted as strong support multiple times.
A break below this level would invalidate the bullish bias.
Resistance Level: ~ 163-164
The price has previously struggled to break above this region.
Currently, it is retesting this level after a breakout attempt.
Target Levels:
175.246 – This aligns with a previous all-time high zone and a strong resistance level.
179.562 – Marked as the ultimate target, indicating a full breakout potential.
3. Falling Wedge Formation & Breakout Analysis
A falling wedge is a bullish pattern that indicates a decrease in selling pressure over time.
The price has tested the lower trendline multiple times, showing strong demand at support.
Recently, the price broke above the upper wedge trendline, suggesting that a breakout is in progress.
However, the breakout needs confirmation in the form of a successful retest at the previous resistance level (~163-164).
4. Retest Confirmation & Trade Setup
Retest Scenario: If the price holds above the previous resistance and confirms it as support, the probability of continuation towards 175-179 increases.
Entry Strategy: A buy entry can be considered after a successful retest with bullish price action confirmation.
Stop-Loss Placement: Below 155.819 (previous strong support).
Risk-Reward Ratio: The target offers a strong risk-reward ratio if the breakout holds.
5. Market Sentiment & Volume Analysis
The previous downward move showed declining bearish momentum, further confirming the validity of the falling wedge.
A volume increase on the breakout would provide additional confirmation.
If the price consolidates near the breakout zone with low volatility, a strong move upward could follow.
Final Conclusion: Bullish Breakout in Progress
The falling wedge breakout suggests that EUR/JPY is poised for further upside.
A successful retest at 163-164 could push the price towards 175.246 and ultimately 179.562.
Risk management is crucial, and a stop-loss below 155.819 is recommended to avoid invalidation of the setup.
This setup presents a high-probability trading opportunity, but confirmation through price action and volume analysis remains key.
Key Trading Plan Summary:
📌 Pattern: Falling Wedge (Bullish)
📌 Breakout Confirmation: Yes, but retesting is ongoing
📌 Entry Point: Above 163-164 after successful retest
📌 Stop Loss: Below 155.819
📌 Target Levels: 175.246, then 179.562
📌 Risk-Reward: Favorable if breakout sustains
Would you like any refinements or a more concise version for your TradingView post? 🚀📈
ETH to at least $ 5400 in November 2025?ETH has declined by 53% since its 2024 year high (YH24) of $ 4108. A bottom price could lie around $ 1760.
However, TA shows ETH could rise to $ 5400, or more, based on a megaphone pattern / broadening wedge on the weekly chart. This price target could be reached in November 2025.
For ETH a difference of $ 2170 (the height) between the present price at the support line and the upper trendline around exists. Once the resistance of $ 4108 is broken the price target is calculated by adding 60% of $ 2170 (= $ 1302) to the price at the breakout point. So $ 4108 + $ 1302 ≈ $ 5400. The price target of $ 5400 could be a modest one given the fact that a break out is likely to happen at the end of September 2025 and the height of the pattern is larger then.
A strong correlation between ETH and BTC exists. This allows us to get an estimate when ETH may start to rise significantly when looking at BTC. Possibly this rise could start in early May.
Strong rises in the past for ETH and BTC occured in November 2024 and October 2023. On both instances BTC broke out of a broadening wedge pattern and crossed RSI = 70 on the daily chart.
Those broadening wedge patterns lasted 40 - 60 days. At present time no such pattern can be seen, so in case history repeats ETH may start to rise strongly at the start of May (40 days from now).
The bottom could be a price of around $ 1760, showing by possibly a double bottom (or Adam & Eve or 'cup n handle' etc.). Anyway exciting times await us.
BITCOIN - Price can bounce up to $87K, breaking resistance levelHi guys, this is my overview for BTCUSDT, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Price entered to wedge and at once dropped to support line, breaking two levels, after which it bounced up.
Soon, it broke $80200 level and then tried to grow, but failed and made a correction to $80200 support level.
Later BTC rose to $85400 level and then some time traded near, after which it turned around and corrected to support line.
Then price in a short time rose to resistance line of wedge, breaking the resistance level, but a not long time ago fell back.
Bitcoin broke $85400 level and continued to decline, and in my mind, it can soon reach support line of wedge.
After this movement, I expect that BTC can bounce up to $87000, breaking resistance level.
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
JPY/USD Trading Setup – Falling Wedge Breakout & Bullish MoveThe JPY/USD 1-hour chart is displaying a well-defined falling wedge pattern, which is typically a bullish reversal setup. This pattern forms as price action moves within converging trendlines, indicating that selling pressure is gradually weakening. The breakout from this pattern signals a potential trend reversal, and the price may be heading toward key resistance zones and an eventual bullish target.
This analysis will break down the chart structure, market psychology, key levels, and a trading setup to help traders make an informed decision.
1. Understanding the Falling Wedge Pattern
The falling wedge is a common price action pattern characterized by:
🔹 Lower highs and lower lows forming within two downward-sloping trendlines.
🔹 Decreasing volume, indicating that sellers are losing momentum.
🔹 A breakout above the upper trendline, confirming a shift in trend and signaling the start of bullish momentum.
Market Psychology Behind the Wedge Pattern:
📉 During the wedge formation, the market is in a downtrend, and sellers are in control. However, with each new lower low, the price finds strong support, and buyers start stepping in.
📊 As the wedge narrows, the downward momentum weakens, and sellers struggle to push the price lower. Eventually, demand exceeds supply, leading to a breakout to the upside, which is exactly what we see on this chart.
2. Key Levels & Market Structure
🔹 Support Zone & Reversal Area:
The support zone between 0.006660 - 0.006680 acted as a strong demand area, preventing further downside.
This is also labeled as a reversal area, meaning buyers were aggressive in this zone.
The final touch at this support led to a strong bounce, initiating the breakout.
🔹 Resistance Level:
The price is now approaching a key resistance area at 0.006780 - 0.006800, which previously acted as a supply zone.
A break and retest of this level would further confirm bullish momentum.
🔹 All-Time High (ATH) & Target Level:
The ATH region is marked on the chart as a historical resistance level where price faced strong selling pressure before.
If the current breakout holds, price action could aim for the 0.006851 target level, completing the measured move from the wedge pattern.
3. Trading Strategy & Execution Plan
📈 Entry Strategy:
There are two main ways to enter this trade:
1️⃣ Aggressive Entry: Enter immediately after the breakout above the falling wedge.
2️⃣ Conservative Entry: Wait for a breakout AND retest of the previous resistance turned support (0.006780 zone) before entering long.
🔻 Stop-Loss Placement:
To manage risk, traders should consider placing stop-loss orders:
Below the previous support zone (0.006660) to minimize downside risk.
Alternatively, below the wedge breakout point if using a tight stop-loss.
🎯 Take-Profit Targets:
1️⃣ First Target: 0.006780 (near-term resistance level).
2️⃣ Final Target: 0.006851 (based on wedge breakout projection).
4. Confirmation & Risk Management
🔎 Key Confirmation Factors for a Strong Breakout:
✅ Price breaks above the falling wedge with strong bullish candles.
✅ Volume increases, showing strong buying interest.
✅ RSI or other momentum indicators confirm bullish divergence.
⚠️ Potential Risks to Consider:
False Breakout: If price falls back inside the wedge, this could invalidate the bullish setup.
Rejection at Resistance: If buyers fail to push price above the 0.006780 resistance, it could lead to another consolidation.
5. Final Thoughts & Trading Outlook
📌 This JPY/USD chart presents a high-probability bullish setup due to the breakout from a falling wedge pattern.
📌 The breakout, strong support zone, and bullish price action indicate further upside potential.
📌 Risk management is key—waiting for confirmation can increase the probability of success.
💡 Final Verdict: Bullish Bias – Watching for Retest & Continuation to Target! 🚀
EURJPY → False breakout of key resistance ...FX:EURJPY is forming a false breakdown of resistance and draws us a reversal pattern against the upper boundary of the descending price channel, as well as the pressure on the market creates the correction of the dollar...
On the daily chart the structure is bearish. After the false breakout of the global resistance a correction is formed, within which the price can test the imbalance zone or the previously broken resistance and continue its fall after the liquidity capture. The global trend is neutral and in this case it is worth considering local support levels as targets
Resistance levels: channel boundary, 162.3, 163.0
Support levels: 160.84, 158.9
A retest of the channel resistance or the area of 162.4 - 163 is possible. But any return of the price under the resistance of the descending channel and consolidation of the price in the selling zone may provoke further decline
Regards R. Linda!
(BTC/USD) – Rising Wedge Pattern - Critical Breakout Setup🔍 Market Overview & Technical Breakdown
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is currently forming a rising wedge pattern on the 4-hour timeframe, which is a bearish signal indicating a potential reversal. The price action shows higher highs and higher lows, but the narrowing wedge suggests that buying momentum is weakening.
BTC has been battling a major resistance zone around $85,000 - $87,500, struggling to break higher. If Bitcoin fails to hold above the key support level at $80,000, we could see a strong downside move. However, if BTC breaks the upper resistance, the bearish setup may be invalidated, opening the door for a push toward $95,000+.
📉 Rising Wedge Pattern (Bearish Formation)
A rising wedge occurs when the price moves upward within two converging trendlines, making higher highs and higher lows but with a weakening bullish momentum. This pattern often breaks downward, leading to a sharp sell-off.
Characteristics of This Wedge Formation:
✅ Upward Sloping Support & Resistance Lines: BTC is trending higher, but the slope is narrowing, showing a loss of bullish strength.
✅ Decreasing Volume: Volume is declining as price moves higher, indicating buyers are losing control.
✅ Bearish Breakout Probability: Rising wedges typically break down 75% of the time, suggesting a high likelihood of a drop below support.
🔑 Key Levels to Watch
🔺 Resistance Zones (Potential Breakout Levels)
1️⃣ $85,000 - $87,500 → Strong resistance; BTC has repeatedly failed to break above.
2️⃣ $90,000+ → A confirmed breakout would invalidate the wedge and shift the trend bullish.
3️⃣ $107,000 Target → If BTC breaks above resistance, we could see a move toward the psychological $100,000 - $107,000 level.
🔻 Support Levels (Bearish Breakdown Zones)
1️⃣ $80,000 - $82,000 → Key support within the wedge; a breakdown confirms the bearish move.
2️⃣ $75,000 → Strong historical demand zone; BTC could bounce here if it drops.
3️⃣ $70,000 and Below → Ultimate bearish target if selling pressure accelerates.
📈 Bullish vs. Bearish Scenarios
⚠️ Bearish Scenario (Rising Wedge Breakdown)
🔴 Entry: Below $80,000 (confirmed breakdown).
📉 Stop-Loss: Above $83,500 (to avoid fakeouts).
🎯 Take-Profit Targets:
TP1: $78,000
TP2: $75,000
TP3: $70,000
🔹 Confirmation: Look for increased selling volume and a retest of $80,000 as resistance after breakdown.
🚀 Bullish Scenario (Breakout Above Resistance)
✅ Entry: Above $87,500, confirming bullish momentum.
📉 Stop-Loss: Below $85,000 (to minimize risk).
🎯 Take-Profit Targets:
TP1: $90,000
TP2: $95,000
TP3: $107,000
🔹 Confirmation: BTC must break the wedge’s upper boundary with strong volume for bullish continuation.
📊 Technical Indicators & Market Sentiment
🔵 RSI (Relative Strength Index)
Currently near 60 – Showing bullish momentum but not yet overbought.
A move above 70 could signal an overbought market and potential reversal.
🔴 Volume Profile
Volume is decreasing as BTC rises, suggesting a possible exhaustion of buying power.
A breakout should be accompanied by strong volume to confirm bullish strength.
🟢 Moving Averages (EMA & SMA)
BTC is trading above key EMAs (50 & 200), supporting the bullish case.
A breakdown below the 50 EMA could accelerate selling pressure.
📢 Final Thoughts: High-Risk, High-Reward Setup
🚨 BTC is at a critical decision point! The rising wedge pattern suggests a bearish reversal, but confirmation is needed. If BTC breaks below $80K, expect a strong sell-off. However, if bulls manage to break above resistance, BTC could rally toward $100K+.
🔹 Risk Management Tip:
✅ Always wait for confirmation before entering a trade.
✅ Use stop-losses to protect your capital.
✅ Monitor volume & key levels for stronger trade signals.
🔥 What’s your take on this setup? Will BTC break down or push higher? Let’s discuss in the comments! 👇
The THETA chart sure has a story to tell!*"Here is a copy of my latest THETA chart, which I recently covered. There is a lot of information to be discovered simply by looking at it and drawing the proper conclusions. This will be one to watch as we move forward into the 'April flash crash' thesis I have been widely discussing.
Even if it doesn't materialize as I've theorized, there are still some interesting developments that could be coming regarding the future of this asset.
Good luck, and always use a stop loss!
Rising Wedge: "Continuation"OKX:DOGEUSDT Analysis – Potential Downtrend Continuation
The bulls initially pushed the price above the rising wedge but failed to hold it as support. As a result, the price retraced, breaking below the trendline once again. The bears not only successfully breached this level but also converted the upper trendline into resistance. Subsequently, within 2 to 3 hours, the price broke below the lower trendline, signaling further bearish momentum.
Traders should be cautious of a potential downtrend continuation. At the $0.161694 level, a large-scale liquidation of approximately $3.01 million is present, making it a potential profit-taking zone if the bears manage to hold the lower trendline as resistance.
This is just my perspective—trade wisely! 🤞⚡💰
EUR/AUD Rising Wedge Short Setup🔥 EUR/AUD Rising Wedge Short Setup 🔥
📍 Entry: 1.72200 (Sell)
🎯 Target (TP): 1.71400
🛑 Stop Loss (SL): 1.72800
📊 EMA: 50-period (for trend confirmation)
⚖ Risk Management Applied
📉 Analysis & Considerations:
✅ Rising Wedge = Bearish pattern 📉 → Expecting a downside move.
✅ EMA 50 Check → If price is below EMA, confirms short bias. If above, reconsider trade.
✅ Risk-Reward Ratio (R:R)
Risk: 🚨 60 pips (SL: 1.72800 – 1.72200)
Reward: 🎯 80 pips (TP: 1.72200 – 1.71400)
R:R = 1:1.33 → Decent, but could be better! 📊
🔥 Trade Execution Plan:
🔻 Sell Below 1.72200 → Wait for confirmation candles 📉
🔻 SL Above 1.72800 → Protect against fakeouts 🚫
🔻 TP at 1.71400 → Wedge breakdown target 🎯
🛠 Extra Risk Management Tips:
📏 Lot Size: Adjust based on 1-2% risk per trade ✅
📉 Look for Bearish Confirmation: Rejection candles, RSI/MACD divergence 🚦
EUR/USD with a bullish breakout falling wedge pattern You're looking at a **falling wedge** pattern on **EUR/USD** with a **bullish breakout setup**. Here’s a structured trading plan based on your input:
1. **Buy Trade Setup**
- **Pair**: EUR/USD
- **Pattern**: Falling Wedge (Bullish Reversal)
- **Entry**: **1.09000** (Breakout confirmation above resistance)
- **Target (TP)**: **1.09700** (700 pips move)
- **Stop Loss (SL)**: **1.08300** (Risk: 70 pips)
- **Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR)**: **1:1**
2. EUR/USD Sell Setup – Falling Wedge False Breakout
If the falling wedge fails and breaks downward instead of upward, here’s an alternative sell setup:
Pattern: Falling Wedge (Bearish Breakdown)
Entry: 1.09000 (Break below support)
Target (TP): 1.08300 (700 pips move)
Stop Loss (SL): 1.09700 (Risk: 70 pips)
### **Confirmation & Strategy**
✅ **50 EMA (Exponential Moving Average)**: Ensure price is reclaiming above the EMA after breakout.
✅ **Volume Increase**: Look for rising volume on breakout confirmation.
✅ **Retest**: A retest of the breakout level (1.09000) turning into support strengthens the trade.
✅ **Momentum Indicators**: RSI above 50 and MACD bullish crossover can support the move.
### **Risk Management (MM)**
🔹 Risk only **1-2%** of your capital per trade.
🔹 Adjust position size to maintain a controlled drawdown.
🔹 Avoid overleveraging to withstand potential pullbacks.
Oil Market at Risk: Potential Breakdown Below Key SupportThe oil market is showing signs of weakness, with a technical triangle formation on the verge of breaking down. Key support at USD 66.50 per barrel is under threat, and several fundamental and macroeconomic factors suggest further downside risks.
Some Key Bearish Factors for Oil
1. Weakening Global Economy
Economic indicators across major economies are flashing warning signs. A slowdown in global growth, particularly in China and Europe, is reducing industrial demand for oil. Weaker economic activity typically translates to lower energy consumption, putting pressure on oil prices.
2. Stronger U.S. Dollar
A rising USD makes oil more expensive for buyers using other currencies, leading to lower demand. If the Federal Reserve maintains its hawkish stance on interest rates, a stronger dollar could continue weighing on oil prices.
3. Supply Overhang and Shale Resilience
Despite OPEC+ production cuts, oil supply remains ample. U.S. shale producers have kept output steady, while global inventories are rising. If supply continues to outpace demand, downward pressure on prices is likely.
4. China’s Slowing Recovery
China, the world’s largest oil importer, has struggled with weaker-than-expected economic data. Lower manufacturing activity and sluggish domestic demand are reducing the country’s need for crude oil, further dampening market sentiment.
5. Geopolitical De-escalation
A potential ceasefire in Ukraine could ease concerns over energy supply disruptions. Lower geopolitical risk would reduce the war-driven risk premium on oil, potentially triggering a price decline.
6. Growth in Alternative Energy
The increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy is gradually reducing structural demand for crude oil. As governments push for greener energy solutions, long-term oil consumption trends may continue declining.
7. Speculative Unwinding
Traders and hedge funds could accelerate the sell-off if USD 66.50 support breaks. Technical breakdowns often lead to increased short-selling and stop-loss triggers, intensifying downward momentum.
Conclusion: More Downside Ahead?
With a weakening economy, strong dollar, and growing supply concerns, oil faces multiple headwinds. If key technical support at USD 66.50 breaks, the market could see further declines in the short term. Unless demand picks up or supply constraints emerge, the bearish trend may persist.
#OilMarket #CrudeOil #BearishOutlook #Energy
EURJPY Breakout Analysis: Falling Wedge & Key LevelsChart Pattern Breakdown
The chart presents a 4-hour timeframe for EUR/JPY, revealing a strong technical setup with multiple key patterns in play. The price action has been forming a falling wedge, a bullish reversal pattern, followed by a breakout.
Falling Wedge Formation
A falling wedge pattern is characterized by a narrowing range, where both highs and lows trend downward but converge towards a breakout point. This setup indicates a loss of bearish momentum and the potential for a strong bullish move once the price breaks out.
The wedge began forming in early February, with price making lower highs and lower lows within the structure.
The support level remained stable, while the resistance trendline kept the price within a tightening range.
Around early March, the price successfully broke above the wedge resistance, confirming the bullish breakout.
Key Resistance & Support Levels
Resistance Level (Marked on the chart)
Around 163.500 - 164.000, where the price faced rejection multiple times.
The market tested this level but struggled to break through immediately, confirming its importance.
Support Level (Marked on the chart)
Around 158.500 - 159.000, acting as a strong demand zone.
This area provided multiple bounces before the final wedge breakout.
Current Price Action & Trading Setup
Breakout Confirmation: The price successfully broke the wedge and moved higher, testing the resistance zone.
Pullback & Retest: The market is currently pulling back, testing the recent breakout area. This could be an ideal entry point for a long trade.
Bullish Target: The next significant resistance is at 166.754, followed by an extended target at 166.938.
Trade Plan
✅ Long Entry: On a successful retest of support near 160.500 - 161.000
🎯 Target 1: 166.754
🎯 Target 2: 166.938
🔒 Sell Stop (Stop Loss): Below 158.918 to minimize risk
Conclusion
The EURJPY chart is showcasing a strong bullish setup with a confirmed falling wedge breakout. As long as price holds above the key support level, the market is likely to continue its bullish momentum towards the 166+ zone. Traders should watch for confirmations such as bullish candlestick patterns, volume surges, and trendline support before entering a long position.
🚀 Do you agree with this setup? Drop your thoughts in the comments! 🚀
ENA/USDT: 100% PROFIT POTENTIAL TRADE SETUP!!🚀 Hey Traders! ENA Breakout Alert – 100% Move Incoming? 👀🔥
If you’re excited for this setup, smash that 👍 and hit Follow for premium trade ideas that actually deliver! 💹🔥
🔥 ENA/USDT – Breakout & Retest in Play! 🚀
ENA has broken out of a falling wedge and is now retesting the breakout level. With momentum building, it looks poised for a massive 90-100% upside move from here! 💥
💰 Trade Setup:
📍 Entry: CMP, add more up to $0.36
🎯 Targets: $0.46 / $0.58 / $0.66 / $0.77
🛑 Stop-Loss: $0.325
⚡ Leverage: Low (Max 5x)
🔎 Strategy:
Enter with low leverage now
Add more on dips and ride the breakout momentum higher 🚀
💬 What’s Your Take?
Are you bullish on ENA’s potential for a 100% move? Share your analysis, predictions, and strategies in the comments! Let’s crush it together and lock in those gains! 💰🚀🔥
ETH/BTC a precarious position..ETH has certainly struggled this cycle as many would begrudgingly admit. BUT.. I do think ETH will shine towards the end of Q1 and into Q2. That being said I am looking for bottom signals on ETH/BTC to truly gauge it's relative USD bottom. I think ETH/BTC is on a cliff right now. Does it take off and begin to soar? or does it take one more dive before it finally awakens? A short term reversal is in the cards right now as it's testing support on a wedge breakout from the bottom. IF IT HOLDS I think a retest of 0.025/0.0295 is next.
IF IT FAILS and 0.0227 does not hold I think 0.02 is in the cards. and possibly a quick wick to 0.0178/0.0161
#NFA #Godspeed
Silver (XAG/USD) – Rising Wedge Breakdown & Bearish OutlookChart Overview
This is a 1-hour chart of Silver (XAG/USD) from OANDA, showing recent price action forming a rising wedge pattern followed by a bearish breakdown. The price initially rallied within the wedge but failed to sustain gains above the key resistance zone, leading to a strong rejection and downward momentum.
Key Chart Elements & Analysis
1. Rising Wedge Formation (Bearish Pattern)
The market was in an uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows within a rising wedge pattern.
A rising wedge is a classic bearish reversal pattern, which indicates weakening buying pressure as price consolidates upward.
The price eventually broke below the lower trendline, signaling a shift in momentum from bullish to bearish.
2. Resistance Zone & Rejection
A strong resistance zone was identified around $33.80 - $34.20 USD (highlighted in blue).
Price attempted multiple times to break above this level but faced selling pressure, leading to a sharp reversal.
The final breakout attempt failed, confirming that sellers are in control.
3. Breakdown & Retest of Support
After breaking down from the wedge, the price found temporary support around $33.20 USD, which aligns with a previous consolidation area.
A retest of the broken wedge support turned into resistance, further confirming the bearish bias.
The rejection from this level strengthened the case for a move lower.
4. Next Support Level & Target Projection
The next significant support zone is around $31.95 - $32.00 USD (marked as the "Target" area).
This level coincides with previous price action support, making it a high-probability bearish target.
The breakdown is expected to follow a measured move projection, bringing price toward this level.
Trade Plan & Execution Strategy
📉 Bearish Setup (Short Opportunity)
Ideal Entry: A pullback to the previous support (now resistance) at $33.20 - $33.40 USD could offer an entry for shorts.
Stop-Loss: Above $33.80 USD, just above the resistance zone.
Target Levels:
Primary Target: $32.50 USD
Final Target: $31.95 - $32.00 USD
Confirmation: Look for price rejection or bearish candlestick formations at resistance before entering.
⚠️ Risk Management & Considerations
Bullish Scenario: If price reclaims $33.80 USD, the bearish setup could be invalidated, and a move higher toward $34.50 USD is possible.
Market Conditions: Keep an eye on macroeconomic factors, news events, and USD strength, as they can influence silver prices.
Conclusion: Bearish Outlook with Downside Target 🎯
The rising wedge breakdown signals further downside potential.
A support retest rejection confirms selling pressure.
$31.95 - $32.00 USD remains the main target, aligning with technical projections.
Short positions with proper risk management remain favorable in this setup.
What is a Rising Wedge? - Opportunities on GALA and ARWEAVE!What is a rising wedge?
A rising wedge pattern is a bearish chart formation that signals either a potential trend reversal or the continuation of a downtrend. It occurs when the price consolidates within two upward-sloping, converging trendlines, indicating weakening momentum.
Key Characteristics of a Rising Wedge:
1. Higher Highs and Higher Lows – The price moves upward, but the momentum gradually weakens.
2. Converging Trendlines – Both the upper and lower trendlines slope upward while moving closer together, suggesting a loss of strength in the trend.
3. Breakout Direction – The pattern typically breaks below the lower trendline, confirming a bearish reversal.
How to Trade a Rising Wedge:
• Wait for Confirmation – A breakdown below the lower trendline with increased volume confirms the pattern.
• Set a Target – Measure the height of the wedge and project it downward, often aiming for the starting point of the wedge.
• Use a Stop-Loss – Place a stop-loss just above the recent swing high to manage risk.
Rising wedge on GALA and ARWEAVE
There will be some opportunities with the rising wedge pattern on GALA Games and ARWEAVE. With the projected downside move in BTC and ETH, these falling wedges could play out perfectly. The stop-losses are around 5%, so make sure to manage your risk accordingly.
Keep an eye on both setups for possible trade opportunities in the coming hours/days!
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