APH coming under intense selling pressure after SCYB TransactionAPH was by far the weakest name in the sector today, breaking $18.57 support and signalling a major red flag for the bulls, putting the chart into a daily downtrend with a lower high and a lower low. $17.76 support broke as well, and the last level we have to play off of is the low of the oversold bounce $15.76. APH rejected on open from daily EMA4 & EMA8.
The price is now entering an area with a significant lack of price volume support, and we could easily see the price move down very quickly to below $17, and perhaps to as low as $16.00. There's significant support at $15.76 so a bottom-fishing play could be an option, but now that we're trending downward I would not be holding onto that position for too long.
Why was APH the weakest name today?
Today Scythian Biosciences closed the sale of its Latin American and Carribean Assets to APH in an all stock transaction - 48,849,218 shares of APH. Clarus Securities acted as the financial advisor in this deal. (source: finance.yahoo.com ).
Clarus sold a single transaction of 500,000 shares today, I'm speculating that Clarus is cashing in some of those shares on the open market for cash on behalf of SCYB. There could be further selling pressure ahead if they intend to cash out more shares on the open market.
Resistances are 18.24 and 18.53, support all the way down at 15.76
Weedstocks
APH in the same tightening pattern seen across the sectorAPH is in a tightening pattern on the daily and the afternoon bounce today gave us an hourly lower high, and a new resistance to play off of, 19.88.
Low of the day was 18.78, this level is important but the key support for me is 18.57.
If we can break 19.88 and hold 18.57, that significantly shifts the odds that APH can break this daily tightening range bullish.
Watch all the major names, as I expect them all to break the same way. It will be worth noting which one breaks first.
CGC will soon set the direction for the entire sectorCGC has been getting tighter and tighter in the two weeks since the oversold bounce Sept 14th. We're at a point on the hourly chart where we're likely to see a break, giving direction for the entire sector heading into next week. Daily candle is still bearish, indicating we could see further downside to start the morning. However if we hold the low of the day tomorrow...
The most important levels for me are 53.43 resistance and 51.09 support. Losing 51.09 means we will have to wait a little longer for a break as the bulls search a new support above key level 48.02. But holding the low of today will be a very important first test.
Watch for SPY tomorrow, looking for potential further downside tomorrow in reaction to the FOMC, and watch the correlation to see how CGC responds in the face of any SPY strength or weakness.
ACB finds it's supportMy last published piece on ACB indicated the bulls were looking for a new base of support, and today it's become clear that line in the sand is $12.00. The day started with a higher open and a strong attempt to break $13, and profit taking starting a minute into the day. Bulls immediately fill the gap to the penny and tried to rally from there, but were unable to do so and bounced off of $12.01.
At numerous times today you could see $20 million on the bid between $12.00 - $12.15, telling me white the chart support is down at $11.44, this is where people find VALUE and that's an important support level too. With weakness today across the sector and weakness in the overall market with reaction to the FOMC minutes and the declaration that "stocks are too expensive", it's going to be very telling how the price reacts to $12.00 tomorrow. That's the line in the sand.
Hourly resistance to give us confidence the daily higher low is in is at $12.60, that small range will be on watch tomorrow. That break will give us directional momentum for the next couple of days.
Tilray TLRY Ready to MoveTilray has reached the apex of a symmetrical triangle and is ready to move.
Stoch, ADX and OsMA are saying down, but I wouldn't take a position until there is a clear break. This could go either way, but I assume the move will be pretty substantial.
HUGE breakthroughSolid consolidation after ABC correction followed by a spectacular breakout following the coca cola hype.
Wouldnt be surprised to see this over 20$ in 1 month from now purely on momentum following fomo which is typical of any bubble
HEXO tight rangeTomorrow, HEXO enters day 5 of the right range from 8.12 support and 8.63 resistance. Breaking this bearish will have us test supports of 7.71, daily MA20 and 6.76. Breaking bullish will have us test 9.09 all time high, and potentially break that. Volume on the break will be my key indication of power and momentum.
ACB searching for a new base of supportACB had a big gap up on earnings this morning and saw a continued run into their conference call, however when the call failed to deliver a news catalyst investors started to take profit, breaking the low of the day and dropping to test former key resistance $12.56 as support. This bearish candle suggests further downside tomorrow, and I'll be watching two key areas for support. First, the low of today 12.54, and second the gap fill 12.36. We also have hourly support just above 12.00.
What would a healthy pullback look like? Holding above $12 psychological would show the bulls maintaining complete control, but really the must hold level is 11.44, the loss of which would indicate we're in for some heavier consolidation rather than an immediate continuation of this bull move. If that were to happen I'd start watching for trend changes on smaller term timeframes as we approached key Fib levels as indicated belowl.
The decreasing bear volume on the hourly chart has me expecting we will hold above $12.00 at least on the first attempt; however weakness in the sector and the overall market will be a correlative factor to watch.
CANOPY GROWTH CORPORATION (TSX:WEED) SHORT TERM ANALYSIS - 30MMy short term outlook for Canopy Growth Corporation (TSX:WEED). I believe we are in the midst of a small correction. I see the price bottoming out around the vicinity of $50 before we see a return to the higher upside trend. Going to continue to monitor and purchase shares at the bottom if my analysis holds true.
TLRY - Don't short now. Long the breakout for a bounce!TLRY saw a massive dump after completion of wave 3.
TLRY is completing A leg of the ABC correction. Watch for a breakout for long opportunity on the bounce.
CGC Continuing Bullish PatternDespite being extremely overvalued, chart technicals are mostly good. MACD and RSI have cooled down over the past week and it's poised for further growth. I expect CGC will see another day of gains tomorrow, and end the week green. As Tilray consolidates, and CRON continues to oscillate wildly, this will enjoy steady, but slower, upwards acceleration throughout the end of September. There will likely be down days, of course, but I believe we will continue to see a rise in at least CRON and CGC in the first couple weeks of October in anticipation of Canadian legalization on October 17.
I'm currently strangling CGC and CRON with put strikes directly below the current price and moderately out of the money calls.
Short on CRON - Divergence Technicals - CRON 9.78% broke out of a strong resistance today but failed to hold. Price is back within the parallel channel . In addition, RSI is diverging from price action. These are really simple, but strong bearish signals.
Fundamentals - Following the success of Tilray 38.12% , CRON 9.78% soared two days in a row, breaking new highs. However, no significant fundamental news within the company justifies such a jump in prices. I believe that the 560% change in price in 52 weeks is clearly an overreaction and could lead to a massive dump. Institutional investors are massively short on Cannabis stocks in general; CRON 9.78% is overpriced and will drop back down to the $9.13-10 level.
ACB bulls draw a line in the sandACB spent the better half of Friday defending $11.75 as a line in the sand, despite the hourly bearish MACD divergence. If that cannot hold I would not expect 11.65 to hold, resulting in an Inside Bar bear break. From there I would zoom out to the 4hr chart and look for a higher low compared to $10.18 and a tightening range from there.
Investment rumours from Coca Cola give correlation favour to the bulls, and I would expect ACB to hold up better than other names should we see sector-wide consolidation this coming week.
Looking at previous WEED.TO all time highs for clues into next wThe similarities I've highlighted here look better on WEED.TO than on CGC because Jan 15th saw the TSX trade but not the US exchanges. That said I'm looking at similarities in the first oversold bounces following the last two all time highs at 44.00 in January and 48.72 in June. Subsequent those bounces we saw a tightening range playing out across more than a week of trading before the equilibrium finally broke - down.
In each of the previous two examples the price set a lower low compared to the low of the oversold bounce. It's very possible this happens again, but with legalization being such a huge catalyst, it's also quite likely that support holds and we enter into a larger daily equilibrium prior to continuation of the current bull move.
The most important support to me heading into next week is 52.81. The best case scenario for the bulls is to hold 59.70 to show they're in absolute control over the coming days.
There are several fundamental things I'm watching here. CNBC is covering the MJ sector numerous times each day, and I've noticed a shift in their coverage from "stocks rocketing higher", to "we're in a bubble." This shifted with the implosion of TLRY on Wednesday and the 50% drop in share price within an hour (now down a full 65% from the highs). CNBC has an agenda here, and that's currently a risk to bullish positions in the sector.
Second is the amount of short interest in these stocks right now. each of WEED.TO, ACB.TO, and APH.TO are among the most shorted stocks on the TSX, and each have had an incredible increase in short positions opened over the course of September (regrettably I do not know if this information exists for CGC - if someone has this info please hit me up in the comment section below!)
Finally, there is the potential of other major catalysts such as global companies entering into the sector in the form of investments, partnerships, and other agreements or LOIs. These events have the potential of squeezing short positions to cover, now so they can enter again later.
Looking at previous CGC all time highs for clues into next weekThe similarities I've highlighted here look better on WEED than on CGC because Jan 15th saw the TSX trade but not the US exchanges. That said I'm looking at similarities in the first oversold bounces following the last two all time highs at 35.88 in January and 36.55 in June. Subsequent those bounces we saw a tightening range playing out across more than a week of trading before the equilibrium finally broke - down.
In each of the previous two examples the price set a lower low compared to the low of the oversold bounce. It's very possible this happens again, but with legalization being such a huge catalyst, it's also quite likely that support holds and we enter into a larger daily equilibrium prior to continuation of the current bull move.
The most important support to me heading into next week is 40.68. The best case scenario for the bulls is to hold 46.20 to show they're in absolute control over the coming days.
There are several fundamental things I'm watching here. CNBC is covering the MJ sector numerous times each day, and I've noticed a shift in their coverage from "stocks rocketing higher", to "we're in a bubble." This shifted with the implosion of TLRY on Wednesday and the 50% drop in share price within an hour (now down a full 65% from the highs). CNBC has an agenda here, and that's currently a risk to bullish positions in the sector.
Second is the amount of short interest in these stocks right now. each of WEED, ACB, and APH are among the most shorted stocks on the TSX, and each have had an incredible increase in short positions opened over the course of September (regrettably I do not know if this information exists for CGC - if someone has this info please hit me up in the comment section below!)
Finally, there is the potential of other major catalysts such as global companies entering into the sector in the form of investments, partnerships, and other agreements or LOIs. These events have the potential of squeezing short positions to cover, now so they can enter again later.
@DonnaSko, on a previous idea you asked about my thoughts on a long position in CGC. I don't like a long position right now; If this tightening pattern does break upwards and we see new highs, I fully expect a selloff on or within a few days (before/after) of October 17th, 2018 legalization date, followed by a long drawn out period of consolidation. If for whatever reason we do not see new highs, and break down setting new lows from here, I will have to reassess the situation from that stand point. From here I only really like two entries for longs. The first would be to bottomfish against 40.68 support with a stop-loss below that price to protect your capital should should the sector break down from here for whatever reason. The second would be to enter on the break of 52.60, which would be a bull-break of the current 4hr equilibrium we're currently suspended in. With an entry there I'd place my stop-loss below the most recent low, which is currently 46.20. Either way, I would absolutely take profit on or just before October 17th as I fully expect that catalyst to be a sell the news event, should we continue the bull run up until that date. Then I'd wait patiently to buy back in much cheaper for a long term investment position.
AURORA CANNABIS INC. (ACB) - Daily AnalysisJust starting to take a look at these marijuana stocks a bit more seriously.. my previous analysis on TSX:WEED (see below) seems to be panning out so I'm pursuing this market a bit further.. don't usually trade company stocks so this might be my way into that world.. still seeing the same kinds of natural patterns I'd encounter on Forex or Comex charts, so giving it a try.. for this particular company, I have already bought up a few shares around $12, which might have been premature now that I'm expecting a small correction to around just under $11 (which will be a better time to buy).. but I'll be holding this for a while, especially if it passes my first target around $15 and possibly add more positions then.. will continue to monitor..
Support Level for TilrayTilray INC NASDAQ:TLRY , is The Super Star in the Cannabis industry currently. Yesterday, the stock had a thrilling ride, as it jumped to $300, going as low as $151.40 per share and finally closed at $214.
Tilray's stock price has jumped, since its IPO, by over 600%.
These type of returns are rare, very rare and will always gain attention.
As Tilray, is likely to have more days of volatility, I am looking at a potential exit point.
If Tilray breaks below $151.40 and stays below $151.40 it will be trigger to potentially exit this trade
CRON - letting the dust settleCRON was all bulls today out of the gate setting a new all time high before pulling back hard. I'm watching the CRON range expecting a daily equilibrium from low of the oversold bounce to high of today. It's notable CRON is the only name that hasn't lost it's 4hr uptrend.
I'll be remaining very patient as the next couple of days set a tightening range with new levels to play off of. The break of that tightening pattern will set momentum for the days to follow. The 4hr chart currently looks bear-flaggy with extended hours on, although the big lower wicks are a point aginst that possibility. Breaking the low of today would confirm the bear flag.
Today's bear volume was very notable. We know there is ETF balancing ongoing this week that must settle up Friday, so I am leaning towards seeing more selling pressure into tomorrow and Friday.
I find the most clarity on the 4hr and daily charts.
APH - letting the dust settleWatching the APH.TO range from low of the oversold bounce to high of today. Today we saw our lower high set and bulls are now looking for a new support level above 15.76.
Today's low bounced right off the .5 retracement of the fib pull with swing low as the oversold bounce low, to the high of today. It will be interesting to see if that new support holds. I'll be remaining very patient as the next couple of days set a tightening range with new levels to play off of. The break of that tightening pattern will set momentum for the days to follow.
Today's bear volume was very notable. We know there is ETF balancing ongoing this week that must settle up Friday, so I am leaning towards seeing more selling pressure into tomorrow and Friday.
I find the most clarity on the daily chart.
ACB - letting the dust settleWatching the ACB.TO range from low of the gap up on Monday morning to high of today. Today saw significant bull breaks of key levels 11.77 and 11.98 leaving very few resistances left until the all time high. However, some healthy consolidation is required.
Today's low bounced right off the .5 retracement of the fib pull with swing low as the oversold bounce low, to the high of today. It will be interesting to see if that new support holds. I'll be remaining very patient as the next couple of days set a tightening range with new levels to play off of. The break of that tightening pattern will set momentum for the days to follow.
Today's bear volume was very notable. We know there is ETF balancing ongoing this week that must settle up Friday, so I am leaning towards seeing more selling pressure into tomorrow and Friday.
I find the most clarity on the daily and 4hr charts.
