Week5
USDCHF, a move that didn't last, week 6 would be different.USDCHF has moved quite nicely, according to previous analysis, showing persistent in the bearish trend, and went on to level 2 bearish zone. However, in week 5, it seems to halt and change the direction. I am heavy in shorting USDCHF, and I ended with about 4% overall equity loss but was helped by profits from other pairs which ended my January with negative 0.4%.
Thankfully, USDCHF did give enough time for me to review and rethink about the direction, it does it over the course of week 5. If not I would have achieved much higher losses.
As I highlighted in on the graph, there is a big price swipe which breaks below the low of level 2 bearish zone and went back up breaking the high of the level 3, reversal price pattern. I read this as an action of reset because it reset the high of the bearish trend and it also creates a new low in the bearish trend.
Following the reset, we see a reversal price pattern, a double bottom and followed by a price ending in the zone of the area of the reversal zone.
The analysis gave me comfort and confidence that in the mid-term trend, the price would rise. I would expect the coming Monday or Tuesday to have an explosive upward movement of the price.
With my current strategy, I would expect it to complete a 3 level of rising before heading down. So come Monday, I would be entering long together with short in EURUSD.
I am more confident with the direction of EURUSD, USDCHF, and GBPUSD. For USDJPY, I would like to seek more confirmation with the coming week 6 movement.
If you have any thoughts on USDCHFs movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like this analysis, and follow me for my weekly updates!
USDJPY, reversal pattern in week 5, but will it reverse?USDJPY has not moved much in week 5, it seems to be range-bound for the time being after the flash drop a couple of weeks back. It is natural for the price to go into smaller and smaller range consolidation after a large move, so we might be in it currently.
If we are going into a smaller range bound, two questions could be asked regarding the current situation,
1. How long will it last?
2. How wide will the range be?
1. How long will it last?
Personally, this is a question that at this moment, according to my strategy and analysis, provides no answer to it. It depends on the market and surrounding global events. Even though I personally would like the mid-term trend (Hourly Chart) to resume, but it does not look like it.
It made an H&S pattern in week 5, but the rise after the NFP on Friday in week 5 does not give me the comfort and confidence that it will continue its drop. If we look at the H1 chart, we can see a grouping of 5 small-bodied candles. If we go in deeper to M15, the 5 candles will show itself as a seemingly inverted U shape, which is considered a reversal pattern to me.
If we look at the Day Chart of USDJPY, we can see that Friday ended strong with a bullish candle that undoes the week 5's effort of bearish move. It pointed slightly towards a strong bullish power, coupled with the long tail that occurs during the Flash Drop, it is hinting a strong market bull now. When we look at the Weekly Chart, we can notice that the opening price and closing price of week 5 are very near, which tells us that its consolidating and developing a possible range. So even though on H1, we see an H&S pattern, when combined with the D1 and W1 charts, it is not so rosy for bear after all.
We can monitor what happens on the H1 chart for week 6, it can give an opportunity to enter long/short depending on the candlestick combination, however, it must be entered with a strong risk management plan.
2. How wide will the range be?
My personal view on this would be between the high of the H&S pattern and low of the flash crash. The market has clearly moved into an upward sloping range bound, so depending on your method of analysis, you might say that a wedge or flag has been formed, but either way, with a strong risk management, no matter how wrong you are, it will not be detrimental to your trading account.
Conclusion
Even though my H1 analysis pointed me towards a bearish trend, I am cautious of it due to the rise on Friday and the overall view from D1 and W1 chart. I am going to watch what happens on week 6 to determine my next course of action. As I am a mid-term trader, trading against the D1 and W1's direction is ok for me, as I do not hold multi-week positions.
If you have any thoughts on USDJPY's movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like this analysis, and follow me for my weekly updates!
EURUSD, Strong rise in week 5, strong drop in week 6?EURUSD made a strong rise in week 5, it raised from Monday to Wednesday, and only to die down on Thursday after seeing a reversal pattern on the M15 chart and follow by a second confirmation on Friday during the NFP which completes the reversal pattern on the H1 chart.
EURUSD completed its three levels of rise and ended week 6 with a complete bullish level 3 zone with a reversal price pattern, it points us towards a drop for week 6.
When I look at the Day Chart of EURUSD, I found that Friday did not move much but has given an indication of an impending bearish trend.
From the Weekly Chart of EURUSD, it seems a big price movement might be coming, even though I am unsure if it will happen in week 6 or not, but I will be waiting to short EURUSD.
Most likely, on Monday I will be entering the market with short positions since the H1 analysis points us towards completion of level 3 bullish zone coupled with a reversal price pattern, the D1 chart suggested a week bull and W1 chart suggested an impending big price movement.
That being said, stay flexible and open-minded and I hope all traders continue to make a good profit from the market.
If you have any thoughts on EURUSD's movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like this analysis, and follow me for my weekly updates!
GBPUSD, week 5 price pattern, a clear route for week 6GBPUSD has finally made a reversal pattern as we see on the H1 chart. It seems like the price has overextended for a while and finally, we see some hint that it would be moving down for the near future.
In week 4, GBPUSD has made a small consolidation followed by a final push upwards which lead to the reversal price pattern. It then quickly break below reversal zone in one to two days and followed to close in a new bearish zone 1.
It was noted that during the NFP, the price was not as volatile as people might think it is, and the price movement was very controlled, no surprises, no big movement.
In the Daily Chart of the pair, it was noted that Friday ended with a bearish candle, and a short upward tail and the weekly chart showed a bearish candle with a small upward tail.
The combination of a reversal price pattern at level 3, and the bearish candle observed at D1 and W1 candle gave the analysis a strong overview that a bearish week 6 is waiting.
That being said, things can change, so stay open-minded and flexible in our trades. I hope all you traders continue to make good returns!
If you have any thoughts on GBPUSD's movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like this analysis, and follow me for my weekly updates!
EURUSD, unexpected move in week 4, expected move for week 5In week 3, we expected the bear to tapered down and bull to regain a foothold for week 4. However, EURUSD makes another push below the level 3 bearish zone and reached a level 4 bearish zone in week 4. While that was unexpected, since we are looking at a reversal at level 3, such move does happen.
EURUSD only went back to our outlook during Friday of week 4. A V-shaped rise cleared off four days worth of bearish move, giving a great indication the strength of the pending bullish trend. The analysis gave great confidence for the expected bull movement in week 5.
For the coming week, the analysis points toward a strong rise of EURUSD, so we can look for entry to EURUSD for the coming week.
So stay flexible and open-minded for week 5 and I hope you make a great profit!
If you have any thoughts on EURUSD's movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like this analysis, and follow me for my weekly updates!
USDJPY, boring week 4, exciting week 5USDJPY sees quite a boring week, consolidating for the whole week with a strong bear move on Friday. The move on friday completed the reversal double top pattern, it can also be seen as a triple top if you like to. It shows the exhaustion of the bullish move, which we expected in week 4.
For anyone who long USDJPY, profit should be firm. With week 4's movement, it is leading us to see a drop in week 5, possibly for the whole week 5, we will see it continue its bearish move.
I am looking forward to the move that it will make in week 5, with great comfort in the analysis of week 4's movement.
Stay flexible and open-minded, and I hope you continue to make a great profit for week 5!
If you have any thoughts on USDJPY's movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like this analysis, and follow me for my weekly updates!
USDCHF, end of week 4, bear move in week 5!USDCHF made a long consolidation in week 4, pushing up another zone to bullish level 4. At level 4, we see a reversal double top pattern and finally, after a long wait, it started its bearish move and successfully moved to bearish level 1 zone in week 4, on Friday, before the market closes.
I have been anticipating the short move and even entered short position in week 4. I did not expect it to break another level before making its way down.
In the coming week 5, the analysis points towards a long bear move, which I supposed might last the whole of week 5. There is no saying of how long the trend will last, but I am confident of the bearish move in week 5.
Not a complicated move in week 4 and lets look forward to the opening of the market!
If you have any thoughts on USDCHF's movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like this analysis, and follow me for my weekly updates!
