Weeklychart
AUD/USD Long Term PerspectiveFX:AUDUSD
The bulls are starting to wake up!
BUT they still need more momentum to change the overall trend of this pair.
On the daily chart, price broke above the 200 Simple Moving Average and bounced of it after the retest by printing higher lows. Currently it is trading inside this triangle and the market is eagerly waiting for a breakout to either side. If price breaks to the upside, the bulls will take the price to retest the the 2015 Highs(0.8200's) which is a very important pivot point. On the other hand, if the bears win the battle, they will gradually take the price lower to retry and break through the 0.7000 psychological pivot point.
Check out my blog for more long-term trading analyses: legendarytrades.wordpress.com
Let's Take Friday's Market Drop Into Perspective...Yes. The Dow dropped about 400 points and the S&P 500 dropped about 55 points on Friday. As bad as it sounds and feels, let's take Fridays market drop into perspective.
Since 2012, the SPY was about 125... Since July 2016, the SPY has been above 212. If you really think about this, the market action that took place on Friday was a drop in the proverbial bucket. The SPY went down about 5 points on Friday....
212 ish - See the horizontal gray line
For quite a while, the 212 level in the SPY was resistance. In July, the SPY got above the 212 level. Remember that resistance often becomes support. So that means "there is a chance" the SPY is just coming back to 212 to bounce and continue higher :) Yes. I have been called an optimist in the past...
2016 Uptrend Line - See the upward sloping green line
The beginning of this line is back in February of 2016 when the SPY was about 180 ish. No one knew this line would exist back in February. It wasn't until the end of June that we got the second bottom, around 198 ish, that allowed anyone to see this line take shape. Let me make a quick point here. Please notice that the February bottom occurred very close to the "181.0 ish" line that was drawn on this chart because it was a level that was resistance and became support. The late June bottom also occurred very close to the "198.50 ish" line that was also a level that was resistance and became support.
With all that said, it is possible the SPY will come back to this green uptrend line before it is ready to turn back higher. If that is what will happen, you can expect to see 209 ish on the SPY. That would be another drop of about the same magnitude as we saw on Friday. It may not happen in one day again but the SPY could get down there. If you are with me in my line of thinking, please notice there is a resistance line that became support in that area. It is labeled "208 ish" on the chart.
Below the Horizontal 212 ish line & Below the 2016 Uptrend Line
Let's just say the SPY gets below these two areas and just keeps dropping. You can continue to look at past levels of resistance that became support. Those levels may give you an idea where the market could turn around.
Don't panic. Take each day as it comes. Learn to gauge the market's future potential on the market's past. Horizontal or sloping is your choice.
There are many opportunities being created for long only investors. The drop that is creating long opportunities is in itself an opportunity for those willing to short.
Weekly Chart Showing Strength, $ECAEncana Corp has recently broken a resistance line and a year long downtrend line this year. After being up the past few months, it is continuing to look bullish. It has just had a two month consolidation period and is ready for the next leg up. The price has moved above the 20MA (which it respected during the downtrend) and the 50MA. Additionally, the Directional Movement Index is also showing a possible strong uptrend with it nearing a pass above 25, and the Relative Strength Index is about to move above 70. Next resistance is around 13.30 to 13.50 which is 10% above the current price.
Contrast Weekly vs Daily Timeframe OBV and RSI indicate a possible bounce to the upside. Keep eye on intraday for continuation downward or break to the upside. If you wanna play both sides a straddle or strangle option strategy two or three months out might be ideal. For a one sided trade check OTM (out-the-money) contracts and the Vol in the options contracts relative to the strike price before purchase - 220 and 125 or 200 and 140 strike price might be ideal. Also don't wait to long to purchases options contract, because as directional price movement becomes more apparent and as Implied Volatility creeps up the more expensive the options become.
NZDUSD Weekly Double Top Straight forward Double top, possiblity of a 2618 depending on how things progress.
But last weeks candle didnt close higher than the previous high, previous area of Resistance.
NZDUSD D (Chart Update): Yet another upside Breakout has failedNumerous times price tried to break out to the upside on the NZDUSD Daily. It has always failed. During the last week of trading the same has happened, price wasn't able to stay above the important resistance area (marked by fractals), instead it went right back into the balance zone. It's possible a new down fractal will form soon, that would be another selling opportunity.
AAPL Weekly Outlook: Bearish!AAPL has undergone a huge upmove since 2009. It has created a divergence and a first leg downwards establishing a major support level. The stock is now higher, but far away from its ATH. The entire move on the weekly needs to be corrected and it is likely that the next support area could be hit (around $72)
