Weeklymarketsanalysis
Weekly US Market Update / 9-15 March 2020After suffering sharp coronavirus-related losses earlier in the week, U.S. stocks soared on Friday and got an extra lift late in the session from President Trump's declaration of a national emergency. On Thursday, U.S. stock indexes suffered their biggest one-day drop since 1987’s Black Monday crash, and closed deep in bear market territory. Friday's big gains couldn't reverse all the damage from previous sessions. For the week, the S&P 500 was down 8.8%, the Nasdaq Composite was 8.2% lower, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 10.4%.
President Donald Trump has declared a national emergency under the Stafford Act, a move that will free up greater federal resources for states and cities battling the coronavirus.
The World Health Organization on Wednesday declared the Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak a pandemic. The virus had infected more than 120,000 people and spread to more than 100 countries at the time of the announcement.
Oil futures plunged to a four-year low Monday and recorded their biggest one-day drop since 1991 as OPEC and Russia appear headed for an all-out price war—shaking a market already reeling from the demand shock created by global spread of Covid-19.
Whats next? Maybe we will see a short uptrend move towards 0,3882 Fibonacci Level. There is also a resistance trend line there. If the indeces fall below 7255.62 (Nasdaq 100), more downside move will appear.
Gold finds strong weekly supportThe weekly chart her shows gold's fast uptrend channel set the parameters for its latest major correction (broader market crash).
The thick green line is the baseline for gold's multi-year bull market and more recent sideways market.
The horizontal green lines are multi-year support/resistance zones and we can see that the all-time high and various other peaks are in sight.
On the daily chart gold has bounced strongly off the channel bottom within the bottom support zone in preparation for a likely run at the high 1700s zone.
$SPY Weekly Outlook Feb 24 2020Futures are pointing towards a lower Monday open, 333.92 is key pivot point, if we can push above this area in pre trading or at market open longs could be profitable on the day. the 21 day ema as seen on chart is also key, a break of this could provide more downside to the 50 day ema 326.80.
I will update during the week...
GBPAUD W8 Price peaked at longterm down fib before starting to slide back down on Higher volume
Scenario 1: Test and bounce off of ema (BLUE) for a final retest of 1.9600 and then we can
expect a swift retracement down to 61% and we can see the price touching 1.9375 by end of Feb completing a 5 wave pattern
Scenario 2: straight meltdown to 61% fib, retest of 1.9500 and down to 1.9375 in 3 wave pattern
#EURUSD Weekly Analysis: Divergence, Double Bottom, Short & LongTraders, here is my quick analysis of EURUSD. I am expecting it to go upwards and then fall back down. That can give us very good opportunity for short and then long positions.
Hit the like button and send me your comments how are you going to trade EURUSD. Thanks!
Weekly chart for NEM : Bullish near term, mid cycle analysis
Lets have a look on what's happening with NEM. We are in the mid range of the larger cycle on weekly charts and we may be seeing a minor bottom on the smaller cycle as evident in the chart. This large upward spike in the chart on the weekly candle may also be a sign of exhaustion or a partial entry to a testing zone/ congestion area
$46 to $49 would be expected to be a resistance zone on the FIB ext levels. Price may test this zone and then look for support. Minor support expected between $40 to $43 levels and intermediate support between $35 to $38 levels
From RSI perspective, the November 2019 weekly bottom on the major cycle, showed a bullish support on RSI and in the whole rally that has ensued since then, we have seen price 35% over the last 12 to 14 weekly candles. Price targets were revised upwards given the bullish upwards move in Gold. Also, price has not yet shown signs of being overbought, price action may still have some upward move as indicated above
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Week Results: China, the euro and oil problemsThe past week has already habitually passed in the analysis of news around the coronavirus. The main result was the restoration of economic activity in China, which greatly reassured investors, and they returned to the usual occupation in recent years - the purchase of risky assets. As a result, US stocks updated historic highs.
At the same time, one cannot but note the opposite trends - gold was in stable demand, but oil was under pressure. This already indicates that investors are seriously worried about the consequences of the epidemic, which are primarily manifested in a sharp decrease in demand for energy assets (the International Energy Agency even predicted the first quarterly decline in oil market demand in 10 years).
Investor fears are much easier to understand than optimism in stock markets. Fears are something rational: it is not clear what real economic damage China and the world as a whole will be caused by the epidemic. Do not forget that the root of the problem may lie not even in the fact of a slowdown in economic activity, but in the ability of China to service its debts, which have already reached 300% of GDP. And the epidemic is still only growing: the number of deaths has approached 1700, and the number of infected has exceeded 50,000 (according to WHO).
But optimism is something from the field of irrational and emotional. Since we believe that, in the long run, proponents of a reasonable assessment of the markets will be right, we, therefore, continue to recommend sales on stock markets as well as purchases of safe-haven assets.
Speaking of sales in the US stock market. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York announced that they will reduce the volume of interventions in the repo market. That is, cash injections will decrease. Which is very likely to provoke a decrease in demand in the stock market.
In addition, this week we will look for opportunities for sales in the oil market. At least, if there is no news that Russia has decided to support Saudi Arabia and agrees to increase the volume of reduction in oil production. Well, or the epidemic will rapidly decline.
In addition, this week we will continue to look for points of sale for the euro. The single European currency after a series of weak economic data, including a failure in industrial production, and close to zero GDP growth Euro zone looks extremely vulnerable.
As for macroeconomic statistics this week, on the whole we are waiting for a relatively calm period. So, the markets will continue to follow the news from China and work out them first of all.
Weekly Chart of Nifty 50@jagrut
Weekly Chart of Nifty 50
Since 2017, every correction in Nifty has found support near to Monthly Kijun Sen which is currently at 11200. So ideally current correction should found support around the levels for 11100-11200.
On Weekly Chart, after the correction the index has consolidated around the Ichimoku Cloud. The levels for the same comes to around 11000-11200.
Trend-line support also lies around the levels of 11000-11200.
Correction period has lasted for 7 - 11 weeks.
For educational purpose.
Weekly Inside Bar - Reversal next week - BUY AUDNZDGood afternoon traders,
The AUDNZD is creating an inside bar on the weekly time frame.
This is a strong reversal signal when at a major support or resistance level.
RBA Interest Rate decision next Tuesday. Due to a turn around in the housing market, as well as strong employment figures, the RBA could hold interest rates steady.
Jump down to a daily time frame there is also a bullish divergence on the RSI.
Any thoughts and comments welcome!
EURUSD Weekly Look .EURUSD is still perfoem the triple complex correction.
.It finished wave A form ABC now it is performing B wave upward
.A long term point of view is it will reach the area 1.1730 before he go down again in C wave
* Be notice that this analysis is a long term look and maybe it will take months to finish it especially when the all moves is a correction
#AUDUSD - A Pullback For Huge Opportunity - Weekly AnalysisHi Traders, AUDUSD is pulling back as expected pretty much like EURUSD. However because in recent weeks it has been creating new highs, we can expect it to continue with that. This current pull back with USDollar over sold, we can get a very good opportunity to go long. We must watch the zone carefully and any sign of bullish movement. The zone has confluence of 38.2 Fib, Round Number 0.6900, trend line and 200 sma.
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USDJPY: Weekly Forecast 6th - 10th Jan 2020A new major bearish trend has just begun for USDJPY.
It was seen coming since it broke below a 42-month rising channel in early August 2019.
The price has consolidated upwards from a low of 104.47 for nearly 5 months.
And finally, the price broke below the 5-month rising trendline, turning USDJPY into a bearish structure.
Await pullback and sell at the supply zone seen around 108.60.
EURUSD: Weekly Forecast 6th - 10th Jan 2020EURUSD climbed further and broke above 1.1200 as expected, as well as the pullback following after.
The last FOMC minutes was unsurprising as the Fed will keep rate unchanged which may cause the dollar to extend weakness.
While the dollar is fundamentally stronger than the euro, short-term sentiment favours a weaker dollar and so is the current technical structure.
The price has found its current low at 1.1125 during the pullback and most likely will dip further for a stronger rebound and resume the bullish trend.
Await for further pullback and look for buy opportunity at the demand zone just below 1.1108.