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US Dollar Currency Index / W / Weekly Forex Analysis / 8.11.2019Hello Traders, welcome to the Weekly Forex technical analysis. Today is August 11th, 2019 and we will be taking a look at the U.S. Dollar Currency Index on the weekly chart just to get into the calendar, and have an outlook into the upcoming week of August 11th. Looking at the Dollar Index here on the weekly time frame, the DXY losing the 97.6 resistance area and taking a serious leg down. Our next level of support is going to be the 96.1 area, if that fails to hold, next we would look at the 95.6 region for our next area of support. Thank you for tuning in please feel free to write a comment or leave some feedback, any advice is greatly appreciated. Have great day and good hunting out there traders!
INDEX:DXY
by FuturesForexClasses
Gold: Weekly Forecast 12th - 16th AugustGold rush after gold rush, the gold price has reached beyond 1500 for the first time in 6 years. There's no doubt behind the gold strength and the long-term view shall stay bullish throughout the rest of 2019 as central banks continue to cut rates and ease monetary policies. However, the recent bullish wave has well exceeded the volume of all previous bullish waves and signs of exhaustion can be seen thus significant retracement is expected to take place For short-term selling, only choose to sell at a high from 1504 onwards (a minor supply zone can be seen in the m15 chart), targets at 1492, 1487 and 1470. To buy gold again, the most immediate price is seen at 1487 (just below the current range low), while the best entry is determined at 1470 (key demand zone).
FX:XAUUSD
by AlgoVenture
1
EURUSD: Weekly Forecast 12th - 16th AugustThe EURUSD made one of the strongest bullish runs in more than a month as daily volume surge to a 20-month high from a 27-month low. The price, however, fell into consolidation for the rest of the week as it got resisted by a 2-week supply zone. The US economy continues to show a slowdown and Fed members have been dovish enough as they see more rate cuts are needed in the near future. No doubt that the eurozone is always facing economic slowdown and uncertainties such as Brexit, there' are signs for further technical rebound in the next couple of weeks. In this week, we are expecting that the price will retrace lower during the consolidation phrase before it embarks on another bullish run. Look for buying opportunity from 1.1115 to the demand zone at 1.1110. However, if the price were to retrace too deep and break below 1.1110, the sentiment will turn bearish and EURUSD will once again break new low.
Long
by AlgoVenture
BTC/USD WEEKLY SHORT, LONG-TERM.BTC/USD WEEKLY SHORT, LONG-TERM. The bearish engulfing is one of the most important candlesticks patterns. This candlestick pattern consists of two bodies: The first body is smaller than the second one, in other words, the the second body engulfs the previous one. This is how a bearish engulfing bar pattern looks like on your charts, this candlestick pattern gives us valuable information about bulls and bears in the market. In case of a bearish engulfing bar, this pattern tells us that sellers are in control of the market.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by alejjuuu
Gold: Weekly Forecast 29th July - 2nd AugustGold formed a bearish weekly candle for the first time after 9 weeks of bullish candles. The gold price has been held back from climbing further by a strengthening dollar and also due to a technical overbought. In the H4 chart, we can see that the gold has just completed the 2nd wave of a bearish trend but came short as compared to the first wave. There isn't any strong selling pressure seen and the bearish move last week is probably just another consolidation before the gold resumes its major bullish trend. This week, we will watch closely for the demand zone right below 1410 as the price is expected to retest the current low since the rebound last Friday wasn't strong. However, traders should watch out closely for FOMC as well as NFP to gauge the dollar strength when trading the gold. If the gold does drop below 1410 and rebound from the demand zone, it would be a good opportunity to build gold long before FOMC.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by AlgoVenture
Dollar: Weekly Forecast 29th July - 2nd AugustThe dollar climbed as expected as euro continues to weaken amid ECB and dollar continues to climb with some better than expected economic data. The dollar is about to complete the 2nd bullish wave after breaking out from a consolidation which has completed 2 waves of retracement. The price is expected to climb a little further and will meet with strong resistance at a 4-month high around 98.4. The key focus for this week is none other than the FOMC where a rate cut of 25 basis point is widely expected. The expectation of a rate cut has already priced in and the market is more focused on the tonation of the Fed in regards to the economic health to look for clues for whether the Fed will continue cut rate further later this year. Another important thing to take note is whether the Fed will unexpectedly cut by 50 basis point instead of just 25 basis point. In this week, the dollar is expected to consolidating upwards before the FOMC. If the FOMC is dovish with its economic condition and/or decides to cut by 50 basis point, the dollar will face a strong resistance near 98.4 and fall towards 97.5 and then 96.7. But if the FOMC shows little clue for another cut in this year and choose to only cut by 25 basis point, the dollar may either break through the 4-month high near 98.4 or maybe it will face some resistance first and pull back towards the demand zone at 97.5 before climbing further, I will be posting another post on trading the FOMC separately.
TVC:DXY
by AlgoVenture
Gold: Weekly Forecast 22nd - 26th JulyThe gold, though recently broke new high again, is expected to fall into consolidation again. The breakthrough this week is unlike what it was in June and the last bearish day candle was the most bearish one since one year ago. Nevertheless, the gold stays fundamentally strong and holds high demand as a safe haven asset. This week, if the price were to climb first, sellers can look for sell opportunity at the supply zone around 1437. For buyers, the key demand zone is seen at 1410 - 1406 where the price began to strengthen and eventually broke out of the previous range.
FX:XAUUSD
by AlgoVenture
Dollar: Weekly Forecast 22nd - 26th JulyThe dollar has shown resilience this week as the price was supported twice by the demand zone at 96.7 and has begun to climb again. The price has previously broken above a falling trendline thus signals for the price to climb further After this week, the price has completed 2 waves of retracement where the price is now seen rebounding off from key demand zone at 96.7. The dollar is ready to proceed with another wave of bullish trend this week despite the fact that the Fed is most likely to cut rate this month. The dollar still holds the highest interest rate after all and it is still a considerably good safe-haven asset to hold.
TVC:DXYLong
by AlgoVenture
EURUSD: Weekly Forecast 22nd - 26th JulyThe bullish structure which EURUSD had before this week has turned sour as the price failed to break the supply zone at 1.128 but instead fell back to the range bottom at 1.12 again. In this week, simply wait for a pullback and look for sell opportunity between 1.124 and 1.126. Among all the major currencies, the euro is certainly fundamentally weak which is caused by the ECB signalling to introduce QE or cut the rate deeper into negative zone.
Short
by AlgoVenture
2
EURCHF Likely To Fall Further After Support & Trendline Break!Oh make no mistake, technically most of the EUR related are starting to show a strong bearish pattern . EURUSD could tumble to 1.09000 level in the coming months even on the back of a weaker USD!. The above link is shows the analysis behind the EURNZD which has a potential to drop . However since many central banks are shifting towards easing, typically in this scenario fundamentally makes the SAFEHAVEN FX currencies perform the best. CHF being one of the SAFEHAVEN alongside the JPY in my view would be best performers against the EUR in the coming months! Have a look at the main chart weekly TF chart of the EURCHF. The horizontal lines are concrete support and resistance taken from the monthly TF. At the moment i am awaiting the monthly candle to close beneath the orange support located at 1.11000 level for added confluence. Furthermore, we have a long term trendline which has been violated on a weekly TF, for added confirmation that is why its advisable to wait for the monthly candle to close below orange line. This would confirm the broken support turned resistance and channel has been officially broken! The next support lies at 1.06000 level, where the price could potentially head towards. This seems like a big PIP move but if you look at the fundamental factors, we are seeing the ECB shifting their monetary policy to accommodate the changes which would likely result in EURO depreciation over long term. I am seeing the monthly would close comfortably beneath the support by the end of this month and then its advisable to execute the trade SHORT with the target of 1.06000 and RR of 1:1. This just represent my analysis on this pair and i feel this a high probability trade setup in play. shall there be any trade entries i would post them in a new post.
Short
by FX618Analysis
BTCUSD Weekly TF Analysis From FX Trader Point Of View!My interest in cryptocurrencies is second to none, however i thought of executing my technical analysis that i perform on Actively Traded FX pairs to BITCOIN. First of all i am a SWING trader, meaning i analyse my charts from monthly TF down upto daily or 4 hourly. My strategy relies on finding concrete support and resistance levels from the monthly charts to finding supporting technical patterns on lower TF to add to my confluence. Here on the BTCUSD chart the monthly chart does not give any info what so ever, so i decided to look at the weekly TF. The first thing i did was to plot all the concrete support and resistance levels from the weekly TF (have a look at the main chart). At the moment of writing the price is in between the 10,000 support and 12,000 on weekly TF. Adding to this, the price seems to be capped by a descending trendline which is preventing the bitcoin bulls from pushing higher. currently the market is giving me neutral bias as i feel the cryptos are mostly driven by technical trading rather than fundamental ones with exceptions of breaking news which affects cryptos immediately without any warning. So below are the two possible scenarios which should potentially take place for the price to make its next move, be it UP/DOWN 1) FOR A BULLISH SCENARIO The price as explained is capped by a descending trendline. So for the price to push higher not only must the trendline break (weekly candle closes outside the trendline) but also the 12,000 resistance level needs to be broken (weekly candle should close above 12,000 level). If this takes place we have confirmed the trendline and resistance breakout. so finally for the trade entry, its advisable to await slight retracement before executing a LONG trade to target the next resistance that lies at 14,000 level 2) FOR A BEARISH SCENARIO Have a look at the image above. its a daily chart of BTCUSD which shows the price confined in a well held triangle supported by an ascending trendline. For the bearish scenario to take place, the price needs to breach the ascending trendline (weekly candle must close outside the trendline). Once this has happened we can wait for the price to retrace and enter a SHORT trade to target the next support that lies at 8,000 level IN ALL TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIO THE RISK TO REWARD RATIO IS SUGGESTED TO BE 1:1 WITH THE POTENTIAL STOP LOSS PLACED JUST ABOVE THE RESISTANCE LEVEL OR BELOW THE SUPPORT LEVEL. IN FX trading i do a combination of fundamental and technical analysis which gives me an extra added confluence to validate my trade, however in this case, the pure technical price action picture is telling me the above two possible scenarios. if you notice, trading with risk management is about taking out the support or resistance levels one at a time rather than aiming for 20,000 or 40,000 impulsively! With Bitcoin or other crypto market being so volatile, in my view its best to take this approach so as to preserve your capitals. Hope some of you will find my outlook helpful and i will certainly in the future think about adding cryptos to my trading portfolio. cheers and trade safe
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by FX618Analysis
Ascending Channel+H&S Pattern In Favor Of EURNZD Bears! Have a look at the main weekly TF chart of EURNZD pair. From here its clearly visible that the price is confined in an ascending channel which has been held on numerous occasions. However at the moment the price seems to be too aggressive to the downside and has potentially violated the channel pending today's weekly candle close! The four horizontal red lines represent solid support and resistance levels taken from the monthly TF. Just below the trendline there lies a psychological 1.65000 support level , which in this case is a must to be broken level in order to confirm a bearish outlook. For this level to be broken i would personally prefer the monthly candle to close below 1.65000 level . Furthermore, there is an almost complete H & S pattern on the chart , which would be complete when the trendline/channel breaks together with the 1.65000 level. In this case the potential 1.65000 turned resistance would also act as the neckline of the H & S . So to put all this together in favor of the bears there 3 concrete confluence factors to take this pair towards the next support that is present at 1.58000! Fundamentally the Euro is weak at the moment and is predicted to get weak in the coming months, whereas the NZD shows a mixed outlook. So putting all this together the probability of this pair breaking down is HIGH. Shall there be any updates regarding the trade entries i will post them in a new post. This just represents my outlook on this current pair
Short
by FX618Analysis
Gold: Weekly Forecast 15th - 19th JulyThe gold has been consolidating for the past 3 weeks since it peaked at 1439. It is still unclear if the price will eventually break above or below the consolidation but the long-term view is most definitely a bullish one as the Fed proceeds with cutting rate. For buyers, traders can consider buying at the bottom of the consolidation at 1393 if the price falls before breaking above 1420. For sellers, traders can consider selling starting from 1420 but avoid selling if the price closes above 1427.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by AlgoVenture
Dollar: Weekly Forecast 15th - 19th JulyThe dollar fell as the Fed reaffirms its intention to cut rate end of the month. The price climbed at first but was rejected by a supply zone near 97.6, wiping out all gains and turning it into a bearish week for the dollar. In this week, the dollar is expected to fall further but will meet with support at 96.4 due to a probable inverse HnS. If the price climbs at first, look for resistance near 97 to sell. Apart from the technical perspective, this week is filled with important U.S. data that is strongly connected to inflation which is an important factor for how aggressive the Fed will proceed with its rate cut.
TVC:DXYShort
by AlgoVenture
1
EURUSD: Weekly Forecast 15th - 19th JulyEURUSD has made a successful rebound off the demand zone as the Fed clearly signalled for a rate cut by the end of July. However, the gain was somewhat curbed by a dovish ECB as well which also signalled for more QE. In the H4 chart, the price has technically completed an ABCD formation and has started its 2nd wave of a bullish trend which is most likely to continue in the coming week. If the price continues to climb, watch out for 1.135 as the 2nd shoulder of an HnS could form. In conclusion, EURUSD is expected to climb further this week and traders can consider buying again if the price retraces closer to 1.125.
Long
by AlgoVenture
1
Events to Look Out for Next WeekBy Andria Pichidi - July 6, 2019 An interesting week is coming up, following a confirmation that the US and China will resume trade negotiations.Market attention is also honed in on the central banks, as Fed Chair Powell testifies before Congress. In the UK, the focus turns to GDP. Monday – 8 July 2019 Industrial Production and Trade Balance (EUR, GMT 06:00) – In Germany, the surplus is expected to increase to EUR 18.6 bln in May, from EUR 17 bln in the previous month. Overall exports are clearly impacted by geopolitical trade tensions and the risk of US tariffs on auto imports from the EU is still hanging over the manufacturing sector and spells further troubles ahead. Meanwhile, Industrial Production is expected to be corrected -0.4% m/m in May, from -1.9% last month. Tuesday – 9 July 2019 JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 14:00) – JOLTS define Job Openings as all positions that have not been filled on the last business day of the month. May’s JOLTS job openings is expected to rise slightly at 7.479M, following the 7.44M in April. Wednesday – 10 July 2019 Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – June’s Chinese CPI is expected to drop to -0.1%. The overall reading is estimated to be unchanged. Gross Domestic Product, Manufacturing & Industrial Production (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The GDP is the economy’s most important figure. May’s GDP is expected to be lower at -0.7% m/m following the -0.4% reading from last month. Meanwhile, Industrial and Manufacturing Production will be out as well. These two indices are expected to have increased, with industrial output providing an upwards contribution of 1.5% m/m in February, while manufacturing is projected to have risen to 2.3% from its -3.9% last month. Event of the week – Interest rate Decision and Conference (CAD, GMT 14:00) –Last time, Bank of Canada held the policy rate setting steady at 1.75%, matching widespread expectations, while the statement was largely optimistic in terms of the growth outlook. The expectations remain for no change of the policy outlook from the BoC through year-end, with the next move expected to be a modest rate hike in late 2020. FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) -The FOMC Minutes report provides the FOMC Members’ opinions regarding the US economic outlook and any views regarding future rate hikes. In the last FOMC statement, on June 19, FOMC left rates unchanged but the statement, which removed the word “patient”, along with the inflation outlook, the dot-plot, and Bullard’s dissent in favor of easing, made for a dovish stance. Thursday – 11 July 2019 Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The German HICP inflation is expected to hold at 1.3% y/y for June. Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – May’s CPI has been estimated at a -0.1% drop for headline PPI in June, and a 0.2% rise in the core index. As expected readings would result in a y/y gain of 1.4% for headline PPI, slowing from a 1.8% pace in May, and a 2.1% y/y rise for the core, versus 2.3% in May. Fed Chair Powell Testimony (USD, GMT 14:00) Friday – 12 July 2019 Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Headline PPI is expected to hold at 0.1% in June, and at 0.2% in the core index. These readings would keep in a y/y gain of 1.4% for headline PPI. We see y/y headline readings in a 1.3%-1.9% range over coming months, while core prices should be in a 2.1%-2.5% range. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
by HotForex
1
Gold: Weekly Forecast 8th - 12th JulyAfter 6 consecutive weeks of bullish candles, the gold finally closed with a bearish candle last week as it fell into a range between 1437 and 1383. The gold plunged during NFP and was supported and pulled back sharply from a demand zone near 1390. The gold was not able to keep breaking new high mainly because the US and China have called a truce for their trade war and also the dampening of more than one rate cut this year by the Fed. However, the fact that the Fed can no longer raise rate, the trade war still exist and other global risks, the gold is still fundamentally strong and is expected to climb further in the very near future. Traders can actually attempt to buy gold as soon as the market opens and support is still seen at 1390. This is probably the point C of the Elliott wave correction after the 5th wave has ended at the high of 1438.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by AlgoVenture
1
EURUSD: Weekly Forecast 8th - 12th JulyEURUSD plunged the most in 4 months as well for the same fundamental reason as the dollar. However, what's slightly different as compared to the dollar technically is that the price did not pull back as much. The price was seen supported and started to pull back from a demand zone just above 1.12 but it managed to close above the bottom of a rising channel. Nevertheless, if the price continues to climb at the beginning of the week and manage to climb back into the channel, the break will be invalid and the price could climb further. Also, this was the 5th Elliott wave and price could potentially reverse or retrace strongly back to 1.13 or beyond. For buyers, look to buy near 1.12 and aim for 1.126, 1.128 and 1.135. For sellers, only consider selling when the price breaks and closes below 1.12.
Long
by AlgoVenture
Dollar: Weekly Forecast 8th - 12th JulyThe dollar has its strongest weekly gain in 4 months as NFP data has shown strong employment, dampening the bets of more than one rate cut by the Fed this year. However, the dollar found strong resistance as it attempted to pierce through a falling trendline and got rejected by a strong supply zone around 97.3. The price kept falling until the market closes and managed to close just below the falling trendline and the supply zone, showing a sign of successful resistance. The dollar is most likely to experience consolidation in the first half of the week as the market awaits the FOMC meeting minutes and Fed Powell to testify. If the dollar were to inch higher and close above 97.3, the price will climb further and test 97.7. If not, the dollar will most likely fall again and test the immediate support at 96.6.
TVC:DXY
by AlgoVenture
US Dollar Currency Index / W / Weekly Forex Analysis / 7.7.2019Hello Traders, welcome to the Weekly Forex technical analysis. Today is July 7th, 2019 and we will be taking a look at the U.S. Dollar Currency Index on the weekly chart just to get into the calendar, and have an outlook into the upcoming week of July 8th. Looking at the Dollar Index here on a weekly time frame, we can see the DXY rebounded significantly from last week. Overall the DXY picked up a lot strength heading into this week and will be looking at 97.63 and 98.34 as resistance areas. On the other hand if we don't get any momentum to the upside, we will be looking for 96.02 for an area of support. If that breaks, our next level of support would be looking for is the 95.08 region. Thank you for tuning in please feel free to write a comment or leave some feedback, any advice is greatly appreciated. Have great day and good hunting out there traders!
INDEX:DXY
by FuturesForexClasses
1
USD/JPYThe dollar yen pair has passed, and it's currently retesting the important support/resistance at the 108,000 price level. To testify the importance of this level, on the weekly chart it can be seen that it coincides with the fibonacci retracement 0.618, tested several times during the last two years. From a fundamental point of view, what reinforces my idea of going short is the expectation that the FED will actually decide to lower interest rates, hence a possible depreciation of the dollar.
Short
by Lorenzo_Escoalbar