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Weeklymarketsanalysis

USDCHF, a move that didn't last, week 6 would be different.USDCHF has moved quite nicely, according to previous analysis, showing persistent in the bearish trend, and went on to level 2 bearish zone. However, in week 5, it seems to halt and change the direction. I am heavy in shorting USDCHF, and I ended with about 4% overall equity loss but was helped by profits from other pairs which ended my January with negative 0.4%. Thankfully, USDCHF did give enough time for me to review and rethink about the direction, it does it over the course of week 5. If not I would have achieved much higher losses. As I highlighted in on the graph, there is a big price swipe which breaks below the low of level 2 bearish zone and went back up breaking the high of the level 3, reversal price pattern. I read this as an action of reset because it reset the high of the bearish trend and it also creates a new low in the bearish trend. Following the reset, we see a reversal price pattern, a double bottom and followed by a price ending in the zone of the area of the reversal zone. The analysis gave me comfort and confidence that in the mid-term trend, the price would rise. I would expect the coming Monday or Tuesday to have an explosive upward movement of the price. With my current strategy, I would expect it to complete a 3 level of rising before heading down. So come Monday, I would be entering long together with short in EURUSD. I am more confident with the direction of EURUSD, USDCHF, and GBPUSD. For USDJPY, I would like to seek more confirmation with the coming week 6 movement. If you have any thoughts on USDCHFs movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like this analysis, and follow me for my weekly updates!
Long
by xunnobi
USDJPY, reversal pattern in week 5, but will it reverse?USDJPY has not moved much in week 5, it seems to be range-bound for the time being after the flash drop a couple of weeks back. It is natural for the price to go into smaller and smaller range consolidation after a large move, so we might be in it currently. If we are going into a smaller range bound, two questions could be asked regarding the current situation, 1. How long will it last? 2. How wide will the range be? 1. How long will it last? Personally, this is a question that at this moment, according to my strategy and analysis, provides no answer to it. It depends on the market and surrounding global events. Even though I personally would like the mid-term trend (Hourly Chart) to resume, but it does not look like it. It made an H&S pattern in week 5, but the rise after the NFP on Friday in week 5 does not give me the comfort and confidence that it will continue its drop. If we look at the H1 chart, we can see a grouping of 5 small-bodied candles. If we go in deeper to M15, the 5 candles will show itself as a seemingly inverted U shape, which is considered a reversal pattern to me. If we look at the Day Chart of USDJPY, we can see that Friday ended strong with a bullish candle that undoes the week 5's effort of bearish move. It pointed slightly towards a strong bullish power, coupled with the long tail that occurs during the Flash Drop, it is hinting a strong market bull now. When we look at the Weekly Chart, we can notice that the opening price and closing price of week 5 are very near, which tells us that its consolidating and developing a possible range. So even though on H1, we see an H&S pattern, when combined with the D1 and W1 charts, it is not so rosy for bear after all. We can monitor what happens on the H1 chart for week 6, it can give an opportunity to enter long/short depending on the candlestick combination, however, it must be entered with a strong risk management plan. 2. How wide will the range be? My personal view on this would be between the high of the H&S pattern and low of the flash crash. The market has clearly moved into an upward sloping range bound, so depending on your method of analysis, you might say that a wedge or flag has been formed, but either way, with a strong risk management, no matter how wrong you are, it will not be detrimental to your trading account. Conclusion Even though my H1 analysis pointed me towards a bearish trend, I am cautious of it due to the rise on Friday and the overall view from D1 and W1 chart. I am going to watch what happens on week 6 to determine my next course of action. As I am a mid-term trader, trading against the D1 and W1's direction is ok for me, as I do not hold multi-week positions. If you have any thoughts on USDJPY's movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like this analysis, and follow me for my weekly updates!
Short
by xunnobi
EURUSD, Strong rise in week 5, strong drop in week 6?EURUSD made a strong rise in week 5, it raised from Monday to Wednesday, and only to die down on Thursday after seeing a reversal pattern on the M15 chart and follow by a second confirmation on Friday during the NFP which completes the reversal pattern on the H1 chart. EURUSD completed its three levels of rise and ended week 6 with a complete bullish level 3 zone with a reversal price pattern, it points us towards a drop for week 6. When I look at the Day Chart of EURUSD, I found that Friday did not move much but has given an indication of an impending bearish trend. From the Weekly Chart of EURUSD, it seems a big price movement might be coming, even though I am unsure if it will happen in week 6 or not, but I will be waiting to short EURUSD. Most likely, on Monday I will be entering the market with short positions since the H1 analysis points us towards completion of level 3 bullish zone coupled with a reversal price pattern, the D1 chart suggested a week bull and W1 chart suggested an impending big price movement. That being said, stay flexible and open-minded and I hope all traders continue to make a good profit from the market. If you have any thoughts on EURUSD's movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like this analysis, and follow me for my weekly updates!
Short
by xunnobi
2
Gold Weekly Forecast 28th Jan - 1st FebThe gold is set to climb further as it breached the key level 1300 in just one trading night last Friday. The dollar has also broken its bullish structure, fell from the bottom of a rising trendline within a weekly inside bar, signalling that the dollar will fall further and the gold will be in demand. A good re-entry for this bullish gold would be between 1299 and 1297. By the way, do also look very closely at the stocks market because technically speaking, the plunge is way overdue just like the dollar.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by AlgoVenture
Dollar Weekly Forecast 28th Jan - 1st FebA lovely plunged which is quite overdue, the dollar fell from 96.6 to 95.8 during the US session. The price actually came down from a weekly inside bar, signals that the price is most likely to fall further. On a second note, a monthly evening star was formed just before December, and this month monthly candlestick is also about to close. So if it closes with a red candle again, then one could say that the dollar has peaked. There's already widespread concern about whether the Fed is still capable of raising interest rate and US government has remained shutdown for more than a month. All of these are pointing to a very bearish dollar in the coming month of February. There's definitely a chance to short the dollar again, but it will be most clear once the monthly candlestick for January is completed.
TVC:DXYShort
by AlgoVenture
SEDG - Solaredge Technologies12/26 MACD cross-over with CCI entry crossing 0 on weekly candlestick chart. Solaredge Technologies is down from peak of $68 and showing entry point at $38.03 on chart. Market Cap value $1.65B Enterprise value $8.4B Total debt -0- Free cash flow $150M Sales growth rate: 22% Expected value: $3.3-3.5B About: SEDG Israeli Solar company SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. offers an inverter solution for a solar photovoltaic (PV) system. The Company's products include SolarEdge Power Optimizer, SolarEdge Inverter, StorEdge Solutions and SolarEdge Monitoring Software. Its product roadmap consists of categories, including power optimizers, inverters, monitoring services, energy storage and smart energy management. The Company's power optimizers provide module-level maximum power point (MPP) tracking and real-time adjustments of current and voltage to the optimal working point of each individual PV module. The Company's solution consists of a direct current (DC) power optimizer, an inverter and a cloud-based monitoring platform that operates as a single integrated system. Recently partnered with Google using Google assistant for EV charging and 6x faster charging. World's first EV Solar Inverter. Request needed for a 10-year back-up battery for 10-hr. house charge and ability to rapid charge EV, we're almost there.
NASDAQ:SEDG
by Pokethebear
Dollar - Weekly Forecast 21-25 JanThe dollar has proven itself to be strong as it ended the week with a 4 days consecutive gain, resurfacing above 96 again after it broke above a 1-month falling channel. Sometimes, as bearish as we may think of currency, one must always remember that the monetary policy of the central bank still plays the major role in the FX movement. Though expectation of the U.S. rate hike has been somewhat dampened, there's no doubt that the Fed is still going to raise rate and their interest rate is still among the highest as compared to all majors. The dollar also broke above an inside bar and thus it is expected to climb higher. If the dollar retraces at first, we can expect the dollar to rebound and climb again from the demand zone within the inside bar. The dollar will face with strong selling pressure once it reaches the supply zone at 96.5.
TVC:DXYLong
by AlgoVenture
US30/Dow - Weekly Market AnalysisThe Dow, as well as Nasdaq and S&P, are all about to reach their critical high for their current major retracement. The dow has broken below a 14-month supply zone, a level that has kept the trend bullish, has obviously turned the current trend bearish. However, the US stock market was resilient enough to perform a very deep retracement and the price has finally reached a critical level. Based on US30/Dow, the price is about to complete its 2nd wave of retracement as it enters into the key supply zone between 24000 and 24500. Nasdaq could reach 6800 and S&P could reach 2700.
OANDA:US30USDShort
by AlgoVenture
Gold - Weekly Market Analysis 14th - 18th JanIt was kind of a pity as I was anticipating the gold to break above 1300 amid a weakening dollar. But it was strongly held back by a resilient stock market, be it the Dow, Nas100 or S&P, or even the A50 and STOXX. Nevertheless, the gold remains bullish. It is at the most ranging just above the 1280 level. There's some signs that the gold will rebound and retest the top of the current range as it formed a Gartley pattern (which I will share in this week's daily post). The US stocks are very very much at the highest point of its major retracement and are very prone to a sudden plunge. The dollar will climb a little higher at first, but only as good as a retracement before it goes down and retests 94. Observe, observe and observe. The gold and the stock market are both facing an important turning point at a very critical level. Asides from just analysis, I want to remind all traders to keep your optimism and emotions in check and make sure that risk is always taken care of.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by AlgoVenture
Dollar - Weekly Market Analysis 14th - 18th JanThere was nothing positive about the dollar last week. Expectation of faster pace of rate hike has been further dampened by speeches of the Fed members. Some felt that the rate has reached its normalised level while many felt that they are very close to the end of the rate hike. Data has also shown that the U.S. economy has begun to slow down. Furthermore, the U.S. government remained shutdown as Trump persisted for the funding of the South border wall. It is all reflected clearly in the price action of the dollar as we seen it broke below 95. The tone of the Fed has changed drastically as compared to the time where Fed Powell first took over position as the chairman. The dollar may continue its retracement from the bottom between 94 and 95 towards the demand zone just above 96.
TVC:DXYShort
by AlgoVenture
EURUSD Trying to reach Crucial 1.1600 level and Weekly 50EMA !For a long while, EURUSD has been confined in descending wedge and currently hovering at the descending trendline of the wedge. By looking at the current weekly charts, the price shows thats its confined in a wedge. last year the price action formed head and shoulders pattern, adding to this the neckline was also broken to confirm the pattern completion. On A long term scale based on technical analysis the price is forecasted to continue its decline further below. However in this particular case, EURUSD seemed to be focused on targeting the ascending trendline of the wedge before making its next move!. So what are the confluence factors supporting this statement? we will be analyzing them below First of all, have a look at the current weekly charts. the price seemed to have bottomed for now and its slowly ascending higher. technically there is a channel present on the daily charts that needs to be broken in order to confirm this move. have a look at this image below of daily charts showing the price confined in the channel For the channel to break on the daily charts, the price needs to break the ascending trendline and retest slightly before we can go LONG on this trade. our target would be focused on the weekly 50 EMA where also the 1.16000 level resistance lies!. We can opt to take this pair further LONG in the near future if the weekly EMA 50 breaks and could target 1.1700 level Fundamentally this pair is under pressure as donald trump is pressuring the FED not to raise rates and 2019 seems is likely to be slow as FED might not raise the rates more than 2 times or it can be even less. the trade war seems also to be showing its effect in some major economic calendar events not in favor of the USD. To add to this, the EUR itself is not doing so great but on the balance of things taking this pair LONG seems to make sense for now. Once the criteria are met i will post the update to this trade in the comments below. For i am just waiting for the channel to break on the daily charts before i can think to take action. stay tuned for any updates
Long
by FX618Analysis
Canadian interest rate decision and CPI inflation data in focusBoc and inflation During the upcoming trading week traders and investors look to a key interest rate decision from the Bank of Canada and important CPI inflation data from the United States and Chinese economies. The Bank of Canada is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged after a series of disappointing data points from the Canadian economy and a sharp downturn in the value of Crude Oil. Aside from the BOC rate decision and CPI inflation data releases, we also have Canadian Ivey PMI manufacturing figures and the US ISM non-manufacturing report this week. The eurozone economy releases key retail sales and unemployment data and the ECB Monetary Policy Accounts. Monday 7th January, EUR EU Retail Sales EU retail sales represent the sum of goods and services sold monthly at all eurozone retail outlets. The report acts as a measurement of consumption and consumer confidence. Consumer confidence and economic growth signal an increasing number of sales which would fuel the eurozone economy. Higher consumption can lead to inflationary pressures which may result in the European Central Bank adjusting its monetary policy. • The EURUSD pair is bullish while trading above the 1.1430 level, key resistance is found at the 1.1490 and 1.1550 levels. • If the EURUSD pair moves below the 1.1430 level, sellers will likely test towards the 1.1360 and 1.1300 support levels. Tuesday 8th January, AUD Australian Trade Balance The Australian Trade Balance is released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and is the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over a reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported and is known as a trade surplus if the exports exceed imports. The Trade Balance is essential to forecast long-term trends in foreign exchange rates and has historically been one of the more important reports out of Australia. • The AUDUSD pair is bearish while trading below the 0.7080 level, key support is found at the 0.6960 and 0.6800 levels. • If the AUDUSD pair moves above the 0.7080 level, buyers may test towards the 0.7150 and 0.7240 levels. Wednesday 9th January, CAD BOC Rate Decision The Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision is a decision of the governing council members on where to set the nations interest rate. Market consensus has formed that the Bank of Canada will not hike rates this week due to uncertainty in the domestic and global economy. After the actual interest rate decision, the central bank releases a policy statement that contains the BOC’s collective perspective on the economy and also ideas about future monetary policy. • The USDCAD pair is bearish while trading above the 1.3450 level, key support is found at the 1.3280 and 1.3160 levels. • If the USDCAD pair moves above the 1.3450 level, buyers are likely to test towards the 1.3555 and 1.3680 resistance levels. Thursday 10th January, CNY Chinese Consumer Price Index The Chinese Consumer Price Index, released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, measures the change in the price level of a market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households. CPI is a key indicator that measures inflation and changes in purchasing trends and is closely watched by the PBOC. CPI is one of the most frequently used statistics for identifying periods of inflation or deflation. • The NZDUSD pair is bullish while trading above the 0.6650 level, further upside towards the 0.6730 and 0.6800 resistance levels seems possible. • If the NZDUSD pair moves below the 0.6650 level, sellers are likely test towards the 0.6580 and 0.6510 support levels. Friday 11th January, USD US Consumer Price Index US Consumer Price Index is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and evaluates the fluctuations in the cost of living by measuring the changes in prices consumers pay for a set of items. CPI is used as the headline figure for inflation, as inflation reflects a decline in the US dollars purchasing power, which means that the US dollar depreciates and is therefore capable of buying fewer goods and services. In terms of an inflation measurement, the Consumer Price Index is the most obvious way to quantify fluctuations in purchasing power. • The USDJPY pair is bearish while trading below the 109.30 level, further losses towards 107.50 and 106.20 levels still remains possible. • If the USDJPY pair trades above the 109.30 level, buyers are likely to test the 110.00 and 110.55 resistance levels.
by OctaFX_Official