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Thursday BTC Analysis (07/20/2023) - Weekly BTC Analysis Welcome to the first episode of our weekly BTC analysis, where we carefully examine the market to identify the most likely setup that could unfold. Over the past few weeks, the market has been confined within a tight range, with prices fluctuating between 31,500 and 29,500. Despite several attempts to break out on both the upside and downside, none have been successful so far. Currently, the recent price action seems to be tilting towards a potential breakdown rather than a breakout to the upside. This observation raises caution as the lack of significant positive momentum, despite positive news and uptrending traditional markets, suggests that BTC might face downward pressure. Notably, even amidst positive developments in other markets, BTC has remained sideways throughout this period. If these events fail to push the price higher, there is an increasing likelihood of a downward move towards the 28,000 mark. Additionally, we need to consider the impact of options expiring on Friday, which has tended to be bearish three out of the last four weeks. As we are already at the bottom of the range and the increased volume from these expirations may contribute to a potential slide down towards 28,000. If the options give a lot of selling pressure. Thank you for taking the time to read our analysis, and we look forward to sharing more market updates and trade ideas in our upcoming episodes. Don't forget to follow us for regular insights and updates!
Short
by MoneyBagTrading
BluetonaFX - Forex Weekly RecapHi Traders! Forex Weekly Recap for 14–18 August, 2023: Fundamentals The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the minutes of the August 2023 policy meeting, where the central bank kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.1%. The key notes from the meeting were: The board considered raising rates by 25 basis points, although they saw a more credible path back to the inflation target with cash rates at the current 4.1%. The need for further hikes would depend on data and the assessment of risks. The board agreed it was possible some further tightening might be needed. Inflation is heading in the right direction, though service inflation is still too high. The Federal Reserve's Kashkari noted the steady progress on inflation in the US due to the positive inflation readings but stated that inflation is still too high and that he remains wary of the risks of letting go too early, as they do not want to make the same mistakes as they did in the 19070s when they stopped hiking interest rates too early. He did also note, however, that at some point next year, the Federal Reserve may need to lower rates and that the economy is currently exceeding expectations. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept the interest rate unchanged at 5.5%, as expected. Key notes from their policy statement were: New Zealand's economy is progressing as anticipated. Headline inflation and inflation expectations have declined, but measures of core inflation are still too high. The Committee is confident that with interest rates remaining at a restrictive level for some time, consumer price inflation will return to within its target range of 1 to 3% per year. In the following press conference, RBNZ Governor Orr noted that he is encouraged to see inflation fall, although it is still too high. He also noted that they are very comfortable with where the current interest rate is and that there was not much discussion of a rate cut; therefore, it was easy to reach consensus on the unchanged decision. The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the July FOMC meeting. The key notes were: Most participants said inflation risks could require further interest rate hikes. A number of participants warned of the risks of accidentally tightening policy too much. A couple of participants favoured holding interest rates steady at the July meeting. Most participants said inflation was still 'unacceptably high,' and more evidence is needed to be confident that price pressures are diminishing. They no longer see the economy entering a mild recession this year. A number of participants said the labour market is still 'very tight,' although signs are emerging that labour demand is in better balance. Key Data Australian wage data for Q2 came in worse across the board: The Wage Price Index Y/Y came in worse at 3.6% vs. 3.7% expected and 3.7% prior. The Wage Price Index Q/Q came in worse at 0.8% vs. 1.0% expected and 0.8% prior. The UK July Jobs Report showed another increase in wage growth, with the unemployment rate rising again. The unemployment rate came in worse at 4.2% vs. 4.0% expected and 4.0% prior. Average weekly earnings came in better at 8.2% vs. 7.3% and 7.2% prior (revised from 6.9%). The US July retail sales came in better across the board: Retail sales M/M came in better at 0.7% vs. 0.4% expected and 0.3% prior (revised from 0.2%). Retail sales Y/Y came in better at 3.17% vs. 1.5% expected and 1.6% prior (revised from 1.49%). The UK July CPI figures were mixed across the board: CPI Y/Y came in expected at 6.8% and 7.9% prior. CPI M/M came in worse at -0.4% vs. -0.5% expected and 0.1% prior. Core CPI Y/Y came in better at 6.9% vs. 6.8% expected and 6.9% prior. Core CPI M/M came in better at 0.3% vs. 0.2% expected and 0.2% prior. The Australian Jobs Report figures came in worse across the board: Employment change came in worse at -14.6K vs. 15.0K expected and 32.6K prior. Full-time Employment came in worse at -24.2K vs. 39.3K prior. The unemployment rate came in worse at 3.7% vs. 3.5% expected and 3.5% prior. The US initial jobless claims came in better, while continuing claims came in worse. Initial jobless claims came in better at 239K vs. 240K expected and 250K prior (revised from 248K). Continuing jobless claims came in worse at 1716K vs. 1700K expected and 1684K prior. Japan's CPI Y/Y came in better at 3.3% vs. 2.5% expected and 3.3% prior. The UK retail sales came in worse across the board: Retail sales M/M came in worse at -1.2% vs. -0.5% expected and 0.6% prior (revised from 0.7%). Retail Sales Y/Y came in worse at -3.2% vs. -2.1% expected and -1.6% prior (revised from -1.0%). Technicals The US dollar had gained some ground against its major counterparts across the board this week. AUDUSD 1W Chart AUDUSD has broken its 2023 low at 0.64583 and is approaching its 2022 low at 0.61702. The symmetrical triangle on the 1W chart was broken to the downside, and if the 2022 low of 0.61702 is also broken, then the long-term target level will be the psychological level of 0.60000. USDJPY 1W Chart A strong start to the week for USDJPY as the pair broke the 145.073 resistance level and also broke 146 before finding resistance at 146.564. The market is now on a pullback and is trading back in the 145 area; 145.073 will most likely be support now. EURUSD 1W Chart EURUSD is approaching the bottom support line of the rising wedge. We are looking for swings with less momentum and for them to have lower highs and lower lows to show signs of possible reversal and break the wedge. GBPUSD 1W Chart GBPUSD's potential head and shoulders pattern is still forming on the 1W chart; the head and left shoulder have been formed, and the right shoulder is now forming very well. The market has now reached the 20 EMA support; therefore, the reversal of the bullish trend may come quicker than expected. The 1.26800 support has not had a close under it for 2 months, so for the potential reversal to occur, there must be a break and close under 1.26800. The key focus for the upcoming trading week will be: Wednesday: New Zealand Retail Sales, Global PMIs, Canada Retail Sales Thursday: US Jobless Claims We will be back with another Forex Weekly Recap report next week. Best of luck for the upcoming trading week ahead. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
6
Gujarat Fluorochemicals: Symmetrical Triangle breakout CMP: 2916 | Industry: Chemicals P/E: 26.3 | Industry P/E: 29.9|ROE: 13.7% | ROCE: 27.1% |BV: INR 503 | EPS: INR 111| MCAP: 32,033 Cr. Aggressive Entry: 2,916 | Resistance Levels: 3,152 | 3,552| 4,076 Stop Loss: 2,680 Confirmation entry levels > 3,049 | CCI: -82 | EMA (9d): 2,793 | S. RSI: 25 Analysis: GFCL has been in the formation of a symmetrical triangle pattern since June 2022. It has rejected to break out from a declining trendline twice previously in Oct’22 and May’23. This time stock seems to be in strong momentum with rising volumes for 2 weeks consecutively. Momentum indicators are recovering from Oversold regions and with an uptick in direction too. If the stock closes above 3,049 entries can be taken for the nearest breakout levels of 3,152, 3,559 and the long-term target of 4,076. In case of pattern failure stop stands at close below 2,680.
NSE:FLUOROCHEMLong
by chandakpulkit
Bullish on Nifty equal weight relative to Nifty 50?Nifty 50 Equal Weight index to Nifty 50 index relative strength (NIFTY50EQUALWEIGHT/NIFTY) chart seems to have broken out of an ascending triangle type consolidation on the weekly time scale. The price action on the relative strength chart has broken out of the consolidation and has completed the retracement on the support/resistance zone. Will we see a continuation of the bullish breakout? If the breakout is successful, we are likely to see bullish price action on PSEs, PSU Banks, Pharma, and Metal stocks while Banks and IT stocks are likely to face headwinds.
NSE:NIFTY50EQUALWEIGHTLong
by vipulmehta817
BluetonaFX - Forex Weekly RecapHi Traders! Forex Weekly Recap for 07–11 August, 2023: Fundamentals The Bank of Japan (BoJ) released its latest Summary of Opinions from their last monetary policy meeting on July 27th and 28th. The key notes were: One member said there is still a significantly long way to go before revising the negative interest rate policy, and the framework of yield curve control needs to be maintained. One member said the BOJ needs to patiently continue with monetary easing towards achieving the price stability target. One member said determining whether wage hikes will continue next year will be a key issue. One member said the achievement of 2% inflation in a sustainable and stable manner seems to have clearly come into sight. The Bank of England's (BoE) Chief Economist, Huw Pill, warned that prices in UK supermarkets may never fall back from their high levels despite the plunge in international commodity markets. He also noted: Monetary policy is a 'powerful' but 'blunt' tool to fight inflation. There are also risks that the UK hasn't raised rates enough. There are risks on both sides of UK inflation. Food inflation is longer-lasting than past spikes. Food price inflation will fall to 10% this year. The Federal Reserve's Harker noted that barring any abrupt change in the direction of recent economic data, the Federal Reserve may be at the stage where it can leave interest rates where they are. He also noted: The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report showed continued disinflation. Sees core PCE falling just below 4% by year end, below 3% in 2024, and at target in 2025. Expects unemployment to "tick up slightly". They will probably start cutting rates sometime next year. They do not want to overdo it on rates. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Lowe noted that they had made progress in controlling inflation but may have to tighten monetary policy further. He also noted: They expect employment to continue to grow, but below the rate of growth in the labour force. The Australian economy is currently experiencing a period of below-trend growth, and this is expected to continue for a while yet. The Board is seeking to establish a credible path back to the inflation target over the next couple of years. The Board wants to have reasonable confidence that inflation will return to target over the current forecast period. Key Data The US CPI report showed further disinflation. CPI Y/Y came in worse at 3.2% vs. 3.3% expected and 3.0% prior. CPI M/M came in at 0.2% vs. 0.2% expected and 0.2% prior. Core CPI Y/Y came in worse at 4.7% vs. 4.8% expected and 4.8% prior. Core M/M came in at 0.2% (0.16% unrounded), vs. 0.2% expected and 0.2% prior. The US Initial Jobless Claims came in worse at 248K vs. 230K expected and 227K prior. UK Q2 Preliminary GDP came in strong across the board: GDP Q/Q came in better at 0.2% vs. 0.0% expected and 0.1% prior. GDP Y/Y came in better at 0.4% vs. 0.2% expected and 0.2% prior. The US PPI came in better across the board: PPI Y/Y came in better at 0.8% vs. 0.7% expected and 0.2% prior (revised from 0.1%). PPI M/M came in better at 0.3% vs. 0.2% expected and 0.0% prior (revised from 0.1%). Core PPI Y/Y came in better at 2.4% vs. 2.3% expected and 2.4% prior. Core PPI M/M came in better at 0.3% vs. 0.2% expected and -0.1% prior (revised from 0.1%). The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in better across the board: Consumer Sentiment came in better at 71.2 vs. 71.0 expected and 71.6 prior. Current conditions came in better at 77.4 vs. 76.9 expected and 76.6 prior. Expectations came in better at 67.3 vs. 68.1 expected and 68.3 prior. 1-year inflation came in better at 3.3% vs. 3.4% prior. 5–10-year inflation came in better at 2.9% vs. 3.0% prior. Technicals The US dollar had gained some ground against its major counterparts across the board this week. AUDUSD 1W Chart A bearish week for AUDUSD. The market is very close to its 2023 low of 0.64583. After a big price rejection at the 0.66170 level, the market looks to be bearish; however, if the support level of 0.64583 holds, there may be a possible reversal of the bearish trend. USDJPY 1W Chart After a very strong week for USDJPY, the market is trading with momentum and is still trying to break the 145.073 resistance level. If 145.073 is broken with momentum, then the psychological 150 level is the next expected target, and above 150 is our Apex level at 151.946. EURUSD 1W Chart EURUSD has developed a rising wedge pattern, which is a reversal pattern. We are currently on the 20 EMA support; if we get a break below the 20 EMA, then we will be looking for a break below the wedge support line. GBPUSD 1W Chart GBPUSD's potential head and shoulders pattern is still forming on the 1W chart; the head and left shoulder have been formed, waiting for a possible right shoulder to now form. Though the 20 EMA support has been strong, the market is strongly approaching it, which may suggest that the reversal of the bullish trend may come quicker than expected. 1.26800 support has not had a close under it for 2 months, so for the potential reversal to occur, there must be a break and close under 1.26800. The key focus for the upcoming trading week will be: Tuesday: Australia Wage Price Index, UK Jobs Report, German ZEW, US Retail Sales Wednesday: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Policy Decision, UK CPI, FOMC Meeting Minutes Thursday: Australia's Jobs Report, US Jobless Claims Friday: Japan CPI, UK Retail Sales We will be back with another Forex Weekly Recap report next week. Best of luck for the upcoming trading week ahead. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
4
BluetonaFX - Forex Weekly RecapHi Traders! Forex Weekly Recap for 31 July–04 August, 2023: Fundamentals Federal Reserve's Kashkari noted that the door remains open for a rate hike in September as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) remains data-dependent. He also noted that, as it currently stands, it appears that the US will avoid a recession, and he hopes that remains true. The European Central Bank’s (ECB) President Lagarde noted that the door remains open for a September hike and mentioned that they are closely monitoring the risks of a wage-to-price spiral. She also noted that inflation is undoubtedly falling and that the second-quarter GDP figures for France, Germany, and Spain are encouraging. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its interest rate unchanged at 4.10%. The key notes in their policy statement were: The decision to leave rates unchanged gives them more time to assess the impact of the increase in interest rates to date and the outlook for Australia's economy. Inflation in Australia is declining but is still too high. Returning inflation to the 2% target within a reasonable timeframe is still the main priority. Bank of Japan's (BoJ) Deputy Governor Uchida noted that he is cautious about the inflation outlook in Japan. He also noted that Japan is now at a phase where it's important to patiently maintain easy policy and that there is still quite a long way to go before conditions fall in place to raise the short-term rate target. The Bank of England raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.25%. The key notes in their policy statement were: Bank rate vote: 8-1 vs. 7-2 expected (Dhingra dissented; Haskel and Mann voted for a 50 basis point increase). CPI inflation remains well above the 2% target. The labour market remains tight, but there are some indications that it is loosening. Fitch downgraded the US long-term credit rating to AA+ from AAA. According to Fitch, there has been a steady deterioration in standards of governance over the last 20 years in the US, and they forecast a general government deficit of 6.6% of GDP in 2024 and a further deficit of 6.9% of GDP in 2025. Key Data The Eurozone July Preliminary CPI Y/Y came in at 5.3% vs. 5.3% expected and 5.5% prior, while the M/M number came in at -0.1% vs. 0.3% expected and 0.3% prior. The Eurozone Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q came in better at 0.3% vs. 0.2% expected and -0.1% prior. GDP Y/Y also came in better at 0.6% vs. 0.5% expected and 1.0% prior. The Eurozone June Unemployment Rate came in better at 6.4% vs. 6.5% expected and 6.4% prior (revised from 6.5%). The US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 46.4 vs. 46.8 expected and 46.0 prior. The US Job Openings for June came in worse at 9.528 million vs. 9.610 million expected and 9.616 million prior (revised from 9.824 million). New Zealand's Employment Change (Q2) came in at 1.0% vs. 0.5% expected and 0.8% prior. The Unemployment Rate came in worse at 3.6% vs. 3.5% expected and 3.4% prior. The US ADP July Employment came in better at 324K vs. 189K expected and 455K prior (revised from 497K). US Jobless Claims came in expected at 227K and 221K prior. The US ISM Services PMI came in at 52.7 vs. 53.0 expected and 53.9 prior. The US NFP came in worse at 187K jobs added vs. 200K expected and 185K prior (revised from 209K, and prior months were also revised lower). The Unemployment Rate came in better at 3.5% vs. 3.6% expected and 3.6% prior. Canada's July Employment Change came in worse at -6.4K vs. 21.1K expected and 59.9K prior. The Unemployment Rate came in expected at 5.5%, and 5.4% prior. Technicals  The US dollar had a strong start to the week but had a weak finish against its major counterparts. AUDUSD 1W Chart An indecisive week for AUDUSD. Long wicks on either side of the candle show the indecision. The market has broken under the 20 EMA and bounced off the lower Bollinger band. USDJPY 1W Chart USDJPY was heading towards the 145.073 resistance level until a price rejection spike just under the 144 level at 143.891. Long-term, the market still looks bullish due to the higher highs and higher lows and is also still above the 20 EMA. EURUSD 1W Chart EURUSD had a pullback to the 20 EMA support, bounced off it, and has now established an ascending price channel. There is potential for another re-test of 1.11000. GBPUSD 1W Chart GBPUSD's potential head and shoulders pattern is forming on the 1W chart; the head and left shoulder have been formed, waiting for a possible right shoulder to now form. The 20 EMA support is very strong at the moment; the market has not been below it for almost six months. The key focus for the upcoming trading week will be: Thursday: US CPI, US Jobless Claims Friday: US PPI, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment We will be back with another Forex Weekly Recap report next week. Best of luck for the trading week ahead. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
2
BluetonaFX - Forex Weekly RecapHi Traders! Forex Weekly Recap for 17–21 July, 2023: Fundamentals The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its meeting minutes, and the key notes were: Considered holding rates steady or hiking by 25 basis points. Noted the squeeze on household finances and the risk that unemployment could rise more than needed. Inverted yield curve pointed to tighter conditions, slowing growth. The labour market is very tight, with weak productivity adding to labour costs. Annual wage growth is seen rising to 4% in Q3. Consumer spending is currently weak in Q2. A rebound in the housing market will support consumption. European Central Bank member Knot noted that rate hikes past July are possible; however, it is not certain as it looks like core inflation has steadied. Knot noted that he is optimistic to see inflation reaching their 2% target in 2024 but added that there is still a lot of key economic data due to be released between now and September. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Ueda noted that there is still some way to go for the economy to sustainably achieve the 2% inflation target and that unless their assumption on the need to sustainably achieve the target changes, their narrative on monetary policy will not change. Bank of England (BoE) member Ramsden noted that the CPI at 7.9% is still too high despite falling significantly. He also confirmed that he "cannot rule out that the next interest rate cycle will get back to the lower bound and need to have room for new quantitative easing." Rumours coming out of Japan noted that the BoJ is leaning towards keeping yield curve control (YCC) steady next week, citing five sources familiar with the central bank’s thinking as policymakers prefer to scrutinise more data to ensure wages and inflation keep rising. This resulted in Yen weakness, and the currency sold off against its counterparts following the news. Key Data US Retail Sales came in worse at 0.2% vs. 0.5% expected and 0.5% prior (revised from 0.3%). Canadian CPI Y/Y came in at 2.8% vs. 3.0% expected and 3.4% prior, while the M/M number also came in at 0.1% vs. 0.3% expected and 0.4% prior. New Zealand's Q2 CPI Q/Q came in at 1.1% vs. 1.0% expected and 1.2% prior. The Y/Y number came in at 6.0%, vs. 5.9% expected and 6.7% prior. The UK June CPI Y/Y came in at 7.9% vs. 8.2% expected and 8.7% prior, while the M/M number came in at 0.1% vs. 0.4% expected and 0.7% prior. US Housing Starts came in worse at 1434 million vs. 1480 million expected and 1559 million prior (revised from 1631 million). Building Permits also came in worse at 1440 million vs. 1490 million expected and 1491 million prior. The Australian Jobs Report came in better at 32.6K jobs added vs. 15K expected and 75.9K prior. The unemployment rate also came in better at 3.5% vs. 3.6% expected and 3.6% prior. Japan’s Government increased their inflation forecasts for the Fiscal year 2023–2024 to 2.6% vs. 1.7% prior. The US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index came in at -13.5 vs. -10.0 expected and -13.7 prior. US Initial Jobless Claims came in better at 228K vs. 242K expected and 237K prior. Japan's CPI Y/Y came in at 3.3% vs. 3.5% expected and 3.2% prior. Core inflation in Japan is at a 40-year high. UK June Retail Sales M/M came in better at 0.7% vs. 0.2% expected and 0.1% prior (revised from 0.3%). Canada's May Retail Sales came in worse at 0.2% vs. 0.5% expected and 1.0% prior (revised from 1.1%). Technicals  The US dollar rebounded strongly this week against its major counterparts. AUDUSD 1W Chart AUDUSD is now ranging and looking for a direction to continue in. We are still in the symmetrical triangle and have now formed a range zone within the triangle, looking for a breakout to either side. USDJPY 1W Chart USDJPY is on a retracement wave from the recent bearish momentum; the market is back above the 140 level. The market bounced off our support at 137.915, which is the area we had the previous bullish breakout from. Next week is very important; if the Yen's weakness continues, the 145.073 resistance level will be the next target. EURUSD 1W Chart EURUSD is now retracing the impulsive wave we have had over the past month and a half. There was price rejection at 1.12757, and it is looking to retest the 1.10956 level as support. GBPUSD 1W Chart GBPUSD is back under the 1.30000 level and is currently trading around 1.28500. The market is still in an ascending price channel, with the price action showing consistent higher highs and higher lows. If we get a break and close below the price channel, there is support at 1.24486. The key focus for the upcoming trading week will be: Monday: US Services PMI and Global PMIs Tuesday: US CB Consumer Confidence Wednesday: Federal Reserve Rate Decision Thursday: ECB Rate Decision, US Jobless Claims, US GDP Friday: BoJ Press Conference We will be back with another Forex Weekly Recap report next week. Best of luck for the trading week ahead. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX