Light Crude Oil... BULLISHThis is a longer term view. It may take a couple of weeks to play out.
The Breaker Block + FVG pose a strong bullish indication that price
may head higher.
The BB represents the turning point in the trend, from a bearish to potentially
bullish market. Not to mention price is going from an ERL to an IRL, potentially.
Weeklymarketsanalysis
NQ (NASDAQ) Weekly Outlook... Near Term BULLISHBullish next week.... then turning BEARISH.
Price turned bullish after the bullish BOS. However, the bias turned bearish after the ERL, and the IRL is now sought.
There was also the formation of a -BB and a -FVG. Should price
return to it, the expectation is it will be respected, and price will head down from premium to
discount prices.
USD Index Weekly Outlook... BEARISHWith CPI Data coming Thursday, price may consolidated within the range of Friday's candle and the FVG, before coming down.
IRL > ERL
I am looking for price to go from an interior raid on LQ to an external raid on LQ.
I'm also looking for bearish PD Arrays to be respected... like the -FVG price is currently in.
But who knows what the news will bring.
EURUSD Jan 8th-12th 2024 Weekly Trade Setup-LONGJan 8th-12th 2024 Weekly Trade Setups
See blue long trade
1. Long Play: C- Probability due to being counter swing and counter Internal. The main reason to trade this would be the trade has momentum more bullish than bearish.
2. This would be an investor trade. Very Long Term
Entry Price: 1.08729
Stop Loss: 1.05789
Take Profit: 1.13105 or trail the trends and scale in when all risk is off the table
Please Follow me: I would love to scalp live on tradingview
Jan 8th-12th 2024 Weekly Chart Analysis
1. Price is in the weekly internal break of structure (See Green 1 for Reference) and ranging between the equilibrium of the weekly Ibos strong (See 2 for Reference) and the weekly Ibos low Weak (See 3 for reference)
2. Price is currently in the weekly A.1 Supply Zone with momentum to the upside. (See 1 for reference)
3. Price has had a change of character to the bullish upside in the weekly I-Bos swing range (Between 2 & 3)
4. As of Jan 06rd 2024 the weekly i-bos (Green 2 for reference) is protected and is the strong structure .
5. As for my risk management framework price is more likely to us this supply zone (W A.1) to generate a move to the downside using the buy-side liquidity to induce market participates.
6. The Framework is to trade from strong protected orderflow (square zone with W on right hand side See black* to the left hand side) for reference)
Weekly/Monthly Overview on Nasdaq DirectionAs price took higher liquidity, my focus would be to retrace lower before making a move higher, highlighted red as premium and green as discount, looking to see if nasdaq retrace back into the FVG highlighted in yellow, to officially see if it plays as an inversion FVG during the upcoming week.
The bears take a 'break' as the bulls take overHello traders,
We start the week with the price having filled and closed within the fair value gap on Friday.
Although the general trend for the past weeks has been bearish, I see this as a retracement for the price to go up to 'Take profit' and capture more sell orders.
I'll be glad to hear your sentiments. Leave a comment. Thank you.
XAUUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ON THE MONTHLY TIMEFRAME ❗❗Looking at the current structure it makes sense to look for sells in this market as it is at the peak of the mountain 🏆...this is my immediate response to the current market condition however I'm open to anything that could possibly happen..in the meantime I'm bearish unless my resistance can be violated then I'll consider looking for further buys to create a new high💯✈️✈️
XAUUSD POSSIBLE MOVE WEEKLY CHART The US Dollar maintained its positive tone throughout the first half of the day but changed course after the American opening. As a result, XAU/USD bounced from a fresh weekly low of $1,944.71 to trade above the $1,960 mark. Financial markets maintain cautious optimism amid hopes central banks are done with monetary tightening, despite policymakers insisting on keeping the door open for additional rate hikes.
Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin delivered some encouraging words on Thursday, as he said the economy is “remarkably” healthy, noting real progress on inflation. He also added that the job is not yet done, as inflation remains high. Finally, he said that any downturn might be less severe than in past recessions and that the labor market is now more balanced.
In a separate event, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic reiterated that the full effects of the recent policy are yet to be seen. Later in the day, US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will participate in a panel discussion titled “Monetary Challenges in a Global Economy” at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and could comment on monetary policy.
ULTRATECH CEMENT- PATHWAY TO 12K AS PER WEEKLY WAVE COUNTSThe largest and most prosperous cement company of India- Ultratech Cement is expected to have more upside of 30-40% from current levels as the weekly wave counts suggest.
To put it in very simple words without using too much of Elliot wave jargon, the next leg up is unfolding now which can be projected going somewhere closer to 9200.(the current wave structure technically should be labeled as 1-2-I-II-i-ii-iii-iv-v, which is simply read as Wave v of Wave III of Wave 3).
The inner rising channel boundaries can be used as a pathway until the bigger wave 3 does not complete.
I hope the chart is self explanatory and would not require too much of decoding as to what i am trying to convey.
Note*- this is not a buy/sell recommendation. this post is for educational purpose only.
$ES Weekly BIAS, Week of Oct 22nd, 2023This is the Weekly BIAS for this week on CME_MINI:ESZ2023
Price closed below the previous week’s low (PWL).
**→ Price is likely going to close below last week’s low.**
Where is price headed? We know that price is drawn to 1 of 2 things:
-Buy/Sell Stops (old highs or lows)
-Imbalances (FVGs)
**There are some old Weekly lows below, so we know that price is likely headed towards those old lows.**
Nifty 50: October week 1 Weekly Market SetupWeekly Review
Nifty 50 declined by 0.18% last week to close at 19,638. The major meltdown was seen on last Thursday (weekly expiry) where the index lost close to 200 points where it touched its key support around 19,495 as per our expectations too. While broadly market is now showing mixed sentiments and is largely looking to be a stock specific trading only.
Week Ahead:,
On Daily charts, technical indicators shows bulls giving a good fght to pick up pace for what all the gains were lost in previous few weeks. Momentum is starting to build u but higher levels at 19,740-795 remains key hurdle to continue the larger rally. On the lower side 19495, 19438 and 19376 are important support to hold on.
From levels perspective, I believe it has been quite a downfall and we should see some uptick or a sideway markets now but to say further the outlook would completely depend on how Q2 numbers starts rolling out and what holds post RBI’s MPC meeting results.
*Disclaimer*: I am not SEBI registered analyst and hence the above market outlook is for only educational study and research purposes only. In no way do I endorse this opinion to take a trade or for any investments in markets in any form by any Participant. Be a responsible investor with proper risk management and keep learning as a true focus.
Nifty 50: Meltdown @19,600Week Ahead:
On Daily charts, the index has lost all its momentum even though the fall has slown down but it has left huge runaway gaps between daily candles. Ideally such situation woul need to trade within crucial candles range and be mindfull of taking trades when Index trades near the gaps, as the saying goes, most of the time index always closes on gaps.
From levels perspective, Nifty is still vulnerable to fall around 19,600. Key levels aroun here are 19,502-19,595 and much on lower side are 19,386 , 19,326-19,230. If the markt settles around 19,600 then a move beyond 19,795 will make the fog clear around the botton of this last week’s meltdown.
BluetonaFX - Forex Weekly RecapHi Traders!
Forex Weekly Recap for 18–22 September, 2023:
Fundamentals
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the Meeting Minutes of its September meeting. Key notes were:
They considered raising rates by 25 basis points or holding rates at the September meeting.
The economy still appears to be on a narrow path by which inflation returns to target and employment grows.
They are concerned about productivity growth not picking up as anticipated and service inflation remaining an issue.
The European Central Bank’s (ECB) Villeroy hinted that the ECB has currently finished hiking; other key mentions from him were:
The ECB will maintain interest rates at 4% for a sufficiently long time.
The current ECB rates are at a good level; it is better to be patient now.
Once inflation is back to around 2%, rates can start to fall again.
The Bank of Canada released the minutes of its September meeting. Key notes were:
The lack of improvement in underlying inflation is a major worry.
They anticipate that rising oil and gasoline prices will push inflation up in the coming months.
The balance between economic supply and demand will play a pivotal role in determining future core and total inflation.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25% to 5.50%, as expected. At the following press conference, Fed Chair Powell spoke, and key notes from him were:
Growth in real GDP has come in above expectations.
Labour demand still exceeds supply.
Expects labour market rebalancing to continue, easing upward pressure on inflation.
Inflation remains well above their long-term goal of 2%.
Getting inflation down to the 2% target still has a long way to go.
The Fed is prepared to raise rates further if appropriate.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) left interest rates unchanged at 1.75%, which came as a surprise as the market expected a 25 basis point hike to 2%.
The Bank of England (BoE) left interest rates unchanged at 5.25%, which also came as a surprise as the market expected a 25 basis point hike to 5.50%. The bank vote also came as a surprise, as the bank vote was 4-5 vs. 8-1 expected (Bailey, Broadbent, Dhingra, Pill, and Ramsden voted to hold).
Key Data
New Zealand Services PMI came in worse at 47.1 vs. 48.0 prior.
The US Housing Starts data came in worse, while Building Permits came in better.
Housing Starts came in worse at 1.238M vs. 1.440M expected and 1.447M prior (revised from 1.452M).
Building permits came in better at 1.543M vs 1.443M expected and 1.442M prior.
The UK CPI came in worse across the board:
CPI Y/Y came in worse at 6.7% vs. 7.0% expected and 6.8% prior.
CPI M/M came in worse at 0.3% vs. 0.7% expected and -0.4% prior.
Core CPI Y/Y came in worse at 6.2% vs. 6.8% expected and 6.9% prior.
Core CPI M/M came in worse at 0.1% vs. 0.6% expected and 0.3% prior.
The New Zealand Q2 GDP came in better across the board:
GDP Q2 Y/Y came in better at 1.8% vs. 1.2% expected and 2.2% prior.
GDP Q2 Q/Q came in better at 0.9% vs. 0.5% expected and 0% prior (revised from 0.1%).
The US jobless claims came in better across the board:
Initial claims came in better at 201K vs. 225K expected and 221K prior (revised from 220K).
Continuing claims came in better at 1662K vs. 1695K expected and 1683K prior (revised from 1688K).
The Australian Manufacturing PMI came in worse; however, the Services PMI came in better.
Manufacturing PMI came in worse at 48.2 vs. 49.6 prior.
Services PMI came in better at 50.5 vs. 47.8 prior.
The Japanese CPI came in mixed across the board:
Japan CPI Y/Y came in worse at 3.2% vs. 3.3% prior.
Japan Core CPI Y/Y came in better at 3.1% vs. 3.0% expected and 3.1% prior.
The UK August retail sales came in worse across the board:
Retail sales Y/Y came in worse at -1.4% vs. -1.2% expected and -3.1% prior (revised from -3.2%).
Retail Sales M/M came in worse at 0.4% vs. 0.5% and -1.1% prior (revised from -1.2%).
German PMIs came in better across the board:
Manufacturing PMI came in better at 39.8 vs. 39.5 expected and 39.1 prior.
Services PMI came in better at 49.8 vs. 47.2 expected and 47.3 prior.
The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI came in mixed across the board:
Manufacturing PMI came in worse at 43.4 vs. 44.0 expected and 43.5 prior.
Services PMI came in better at 48.4 vs. 47.7 expected and 47.9 prior.
The UK Services PMI came in mixed across the board:
Manufacturing PMI came in better at 44.2 vs. 43.0 expected and 43.0 prior.
Services PMI came in worse at 47.2 vs. 49.2 expected and 49.5 prior.
Technicals
A mixed week for the forex majors, a bad week for GBP, especially with another week of worse-than-expected data leading to more weakening for the currency.
AUDUSD 1W Chart
AUDUSD held strong above the support level at the yearlow low and is trading comfortably above the 0.64000 area. The market briefly went above the 0.65000 area, which has not been seen since the end of August.
USDJPY 1W Chart
USDJPY is quickly approaching 150. The market is now trading just above the 148 level. The 150-level line lines up perfectly with the top of the ascending channel.
EURUSD 1W Chart
EURUSD is still continuing to head downwards after the support break of the rising wedge. A doji candle has formed on the 1W, which signals indecision, so we must be wary of this.
GBPUSD 1W Chart
GBPUSD is continuing its bearish momentum after the wedge support break. The next support area is around the 1.22000 level.
The key focus for the upcoming trading week will be:
Monday: German IFO.
Tuesday: US Consumer Confidence
Wednesday: Bank of Japan Meeting Minutes, Australia Monthly CPI, US Durable Goods Orders
Thursday: Australia Retail Sales, US Q2 Final GDP, US Jobless Claims
Friday: Japan Tokyo CPI, Japan Unemployment Rate, Japan Retail Sales, UK Q2 Final GDP, Eurozone CPI, Canada GDP, US Core PCE
We will be back with another Forex Weekly Recap report next week.
Best of luck for the upcoming trading week. Trade safely and responsibly.
BluetonaFX