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Weeklyoutlook

10/06/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $71,199.84 Last weeks low: $67,611.61 Midpoint: $69,801.22 Chop, chop and some more chop for Bitcoin. A steady a climb for BTC last week from range lows made at the beginning of the week with a high just shy of $72K before freefalling to the 0.25 line which coincides with the '21 ATH level l, and a bounce back up to the midpoint which is currently LTF resistance. The altcoin market is looking in pretty rough shape in comparison to BTC, many have halved since their highs and are now retesting their 1D 200EMA's for support. In a Bullrun you'd expect these levels to hold and can offer great Long entries, I'd like to see BTC show strength above the '21 ATH because if we see another drop below alts will follow and once below the 1D 200EMA we could be in trouble for a while. For this week I am looking at potential alt longs at the 1D 200EMA levels but being very aware of Bitcoins price. No trade if BTC is below SWB:69K as that would be yet another failed ATH run, and would look to target lower down in the chop range.
by ProR35
03/06/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $70,741.40 Last weeks low: $68.714.79 Midpoint: $66,688.18 As we enter the Midway point in the calendar year BTC finds itself continuing to battle its '21 ATH. For many weeks now we've seen this key S/R level flipping from support to resistance and vice versa, will we finally see a breakout move above this week? Although for the last few weeks the general attention has been focused on the ETH ETF, now that that is over and had a bullish turnout the market is looking for BTC to lead the way. Price is now above the 4H 200EMA, Post-halving supply shock effecting tokenomics positively in terms of supply and demand and currently breaking down the previous cycles high. Given all that in mind I think the patient will be rewarded as I think when BTC does get a clear run, most likely when Greyscale stop selling at a rate that causes outflows to overcome inflows. Top buyers sell pressure is relieved as holders who were underwater all bear market sell their positions and give way to buyers with high conviction. Then we will see BTC target $80K, only a matter of time. This week I am focusing on BTC strength and signs of a breakout, I would say that once BTC breaks out, ETH will break above $4K and target ATH @ $4.8K. Things to look out for is any US news that could effect the markets; law making, Veto's etc. Hopefully you had a good first half of 2024 and good luck for the second half!!
by ProR35
27/05/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $71,999.47 Last weeks low: $69,028.57 Midpoint: $66,057.66 After a historical week for the crypto space with the ETH ETF approval has meant that BTC has taken somewhat of a backseat. Currently battling with the '21 ATH at SWB:69K while ETH is beginning to pic up strength in the ETH/BTC pair and take volume away from Bitcoin. Ethereum has been a relatively slow mover in comparison to some of the rest of the altcoin market. However, now that the ETFs are approved and it is to be expected that ETH will have huge Inflows just as BTC did with a >50% increase since approval. All this means that I could see BTC fighting the '21 ATH for sometime while the altcoin market and mostly ETH will take the spotlight for the next week at least. SWB:69K lines up well with the weekly range Midpoint and that's the key battle for BTC, so far this Bullrun we've seen BTC lead the way generally, could it be time for ETH to take over? This week I think ETH and ETH beta plays (OP, ARB, LDO, METIS etc) are the ones to watch, I would be cautious when it comes to Longing ETH blindly at this level, yes the massive demand increase will help price rise but as we saw with BTC after ETF approval, price did drop 18% over two weeks post approval. I'm not saying this will definitely happen with ETH, so far despite an initial 10% whipsaw price has stayed generally the same with a slight move up, however It is worth noting.
by ProR35
20/05/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $67701.33 Last weeks low: $64227.62 Midpoint: $60753.92 We have lift off... maybe? Bitcoin has spent the last 2 months chopping between the low $70K's and high $50K's after a strong rally. However, it looks like strength has returned at least for now in BTC after the CPI print of Wednesday last week. This volatility influx moved BTC back above the 4H 200EMA which has been the all important level in determining the Mid - Low time frame trend. Now that price is back above I think the general sentiment would be to be more risk on, especially in terms of leverage than we've seen in the last few weeks. Not necessarily saying this is an ideal entry, just I think more confidence is returning to Bitcoin. The altcoin market on the other hand with exception to a few top performers is lagging behind BTC, and that can be seen by the Bitcoin dominance at 56% currently and targeting local highs. For altcoins to begin reclaiming some of their loses we'd need BTC to get back above the '21 high of $69K. Also, we have the ETH ETF approval deadline for VanEck and ArkInvest/ 21Shares on the 23rd &24th May respectively. Coinbase believes the odds of approval are closer to 30-40% so it would be a shock if these ETF's were approved by the SEC, however, if they were to be approved this could help kickstart the altcoin market again. For this week it's about seeing if BTC can capitalise on last weeks progress and target the '21 ATH. The purple trendline needs to be respected on the way up otherwise I think we'll retest the MIDPOINT or even the 0.25 area.
by ProR35
13/05/24 Weekly outlookAre you getting bored yet? Another week of chop has elapsed, and in short there is not much else to say on the surface. BTC took out it's previous weeks high and then retraced roughly half of the progress made, filling the FVG left behind by the local move up and creating our range low for this week. As it so often does, the range perfectly shows the levels of which price action moves throughout the week. We had $1.1B worth of options expire on May 10th last week which gave BTC it's volatility on Friday creating the weeks low and creating an FVG. I believe it makers sense for price to work towards filling that FVG and retesting the MIDPOINT resistance. If price rejects then next stop is range low, if price accepts higher then range high is the target, simple as that on LTF. In terms of the broader market, the ETF battle is still being won by the bearish GBTC Greyscale as their continued outflow of BTC with a outflow of $43M vs the net inflow of the 11 other US BTC spot ETFs totalling $32M . Resulting in a net outflow pf $11M The altcoin market continues to weaken as BTC continues to chop, risk off on leverage continues until BTC can confidently regain the 4H 200EMA , until then spot and hold .
by ProR35
06/04/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $64,741.58 Last weeks low: $56,573.01 Midpoint: $60,657.29 As April comes to a close, BTC post it's first red candle on the monthly for the first time since August of last year, that's exactly 7 months of green candles until now. From a TA standpoint it comes as no surprise, BTC hit and surpassed the previous ATH, it was clear we would meet resistance at this level as is often the case whenever a coin reaches it's previous ATH. Now that the monthly close back under the 69K level that confirms a Swing Fail Pattern (SFP) which is HTF bearish, the first bearish confirmation we've seen on the HTF for quite some time, the first signs of exhaustion in the rally. We are now in the "post halving" section of the Bullrun which we know has huge bullish potential, however in the short term Bitcoin is looking more bearish than it has done this year. Altcoins have already taken a huge hit, probably worse off than was expected if BTC pulled back and a lot of alts are in oversold territory . For any strength to return to the altcoin market BTC needs to return to strength and for that to happen all eyes are on the ETF inflows/outflows. For this week I would be surprised if we saw anything other than further chop. The 4H 200EMA is still resisitance for now, a reclaim and acceptance above that level would be a bullish signal for continuation higher, until then building long term SPOT positions/DCA'ing on alts may be a good idea as prices are down 15-25% from their local highs. Leverage trading would require being very nimble to dip in and out of trading both sides.
by ProR35
29/04/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $67244.99 Last weeks low: $62406.59 Midpoint: $64825.79 As Bitcoin continues it's multi-week sideways chop , there really isn't a great deal to talk about in terms of price action other than it's extremely boring and potentially dangerous. I say dangerous because it's this kind of chop that separates the impatient and the patient. Trading price action like this especially using leverage is bound to end poorly as both long and short sides get caught up in a serious of stop hunts. The only trades that could be made are the extremes of the range that are set. There is some hope however, the HONG KONG ETF's for BTC &ETH go live from tomorrow (30th April) . This could bring in-flows that have been missing in recent weeks as BlackRock and co. have dramatically lowered their in-flows and Greyscale continues to dump. Perhaps this new demand can absorb some of the Greyscale outflows? Or maybe it will be a non-event? We will keep a close eye on this throughout the week. There are also rumours that Australia will join the ETF movement too in the future. The general Altcoin market is currently in a very oversold condition , having said that the relief bounce does not look to be in sight anytime soon, no point trying to catch a falling knife, if anything focus on DCA'ing (Dollar cost averaging) into strong projects but with a long term outlook. Narratives such as RWA, AI, DePIN etc. In the short term all eyes are on last weeks low and if it can be reclaimed, if not 58K area is on the cards.
by ProR35
22/04/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $66857.53 Last weeks low: $63230.46 Midpoint: $59603.38 The 4th Bitcoin Halving is now complete , the block reward has been cut from 6.25BTC to 3.125BTC . The reduction in reward creates a supply shock that changes the the tokenomics drastically. We now have a situation were miners revenue effectively halves overnight , despite this miners would have had ample time to plan for this as the halving is every 4 years consistently and would have been able to plan accordingly. Last week we saw Bitcoins price drop back to sub 60k after losing the 4H 200EMA support level . After a double bottom price rose back towards the underside of the 4H 200EMA and now retesting as resistance. This week will be key for the direction of BTC in the short term. We know post-halving we see new highs within a year, often very quickly after the event, but the short term price direction is very difficult to predict at this time. Institutional buyers are here, we have big players like BlackRock and MicroStrategy buying up large amounts of BTC to hold long term, the Hong Kong ETF begins on 30th April and could potentially bring Billions of dollars in additional in-flows. Grayscale has been the lead seller in the last few months as they sell large amounts of their GBTC, currently $16.4B in total . A large reason for the sell off is the high fees on Grayscales ETF compared to the newer low fee options presented by BlackRock, WisdomTree, Valkyrie etf all at 0.25%. Grayscale have now tackled this problem by creating a "Mini-GBTC" with 0.15% fees making it the lowest on the market . It will be interesting to see if this stops the consistent outflows. If it does and yet more demand enters the market in Asia coupled with a stunted supply of new Bitcoins we are looking at a good environment for price growth. This week I will be keeping a close eye on how BTC reacts around the 4H 200EMA, If we hover at this area with now real emphasis on direction then this is a traders environment where money can be made both ways before resuming the overall HTF uptrend. Alts took a huge hit last week and have given some good entry opportunities, naturally a strong BTC is needed to see progress in the alt market, with a strong reclaim of the 4H 200EMA alts can return to being risk on with a tight stop loss in my opinion.
by ProR35
15/04/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $72799.81 Last weeks low: $66731.50 Midpoint: $60663.19 BTC HALVING WEEK! A lot happened last week in the world of crypto, We saw our first prolonged sell off that led to BTC losing the 4H 200EMA support line, and reaching a weekly low of $60,600 . What caused this drop? In my opinion and it's easy to say in hindsight, it's been a long time coming with no clear pullback since the beginning of February. BTC's price has nearly doubled since then and with the rally exhausted a correction is healthy. It's important to back up how a trader feels anecdotally with TA and data: - In terms of TA and indicators, The 1D RSI has been on overbought for weeks and also provided a bearish divergence in mid march when we made a new ATH. - The fear and greed index is a great tool to use as confluence with other technical indicators, used in conjunction with RSI for example we can tell if BTC has anymore room to grow during this rally or we need a pullback to refuel. In this case, the fear and greed index has been above 70 since the beginning of February, peaking at 90 which historically shows a local top. FA and Geo-Political influences: - The Halving takes place this week, in the past we do usually get a sell off pre-halving, 20-30% drop's are also common during bullruns so this isn't too much of a surprise. - Geo-political escalations can cause uncertainty in the market, The COVID crash comes to mind where we have a capitulation event, I don't see this pullback as anything near the COVID crash severity, however, with conflict growing in the Middle-East it is possible risk-on assets such as BTC can suffer as investors become cautious and defensive. For this week I will be keeping a close eye on BTC reclaiming 4H 200EMA, if that is possible I believe the alt market can begin to recover, until then I do think the market will still be cautious. Flip the MIDPOINT and make it support then we're risk on, rejects and we're still playing it safe.
by ProR35
08/04/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $71365.43 Last weeks low: $67932.12 Midpoint: $64498.81 Trading can be a very complex and difficult profession to be profitable, however it can often be made more simple. The 4H 200EMA can be used to indicate the direction of the market, for 2 months now BTC has reliably been bouncing off the 4H 200EMA making it great support and an ideal position to enter a LONG position. Last week we saw BTC fall as the monthly candle closed which ended the first quarter of the year. Then after reacting positively off the key moving average priced rallied back towards the '21 ATH level of 69K which is HTF support and got back above it. In addition to reclaiming a key level, funding has cooled off and looks much healthier, the halving is less than two weeks away , Greyscale continue to sell but they are slowing down. All signs are bullish for this week and the first few hours of trading have shown it as we blast towards 73K. For this week I am going to continue to build on positions made last week during the dip while keeping and eye on BTC targeting ATH, I believe the conditions are now right to make a run for new highs. BRC20 tokens could be worth keeping an eye on as BTC looks strong as well as RWA's.
by ProR35
01/04/24 Weekly outlook (Q2)Last weeks high: $71771.20 Last weeks low: $69088.87 Midpoint: $66406.55 Q2 BEGINS! BTC saw a 91.35% increase from yearly open and closed out Q1 at ~71K . A very strong first quarter on the lead up to The Halving now less than 20 days away we have only a few more weeks to get set for the event which historically brings new highs after. Now that we have ended the month of March and begun Q2 , we can see that the bulls really pushed for a strong monthly close above the '21 ATH level of 69K, a very important S/R level and now we have closed above on the monthly it's confirmed as new support. Almost instantly after the monthly close price did drop back down to the previous weeks Midpoint of the range and the important support level. I do think we range for a while and build a base in the lead up to the Halving, any dip is probably a good entry point for long a long term hold as historically new highs come soon after the halving. For now I think we'll see a continuation of select alts having double digit days with BTC & ETH staying relatively flat . In my opinion we're at the low cap/memecoin stage of the cycle and just waiting for the next big BTC rally to start the whole cycle again and have money flow back into BTC. Next rally should target 86K (1.272 FIB extension) and with supply halving and ETF backing I do believe it's achievable this year perhaps even this quarter.
by ProR35
2
25/03/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $68975.9 Last weeks low: $64863.9 Midpoint: $60752.0 Our first major pullback took place last week as BTC saw a weekly low of $60,752 , and notably the weekly high didn't manage to top the previous cycles ATH at 69K which does indicate a HTF Bearish Swing Fail Pattern. The 4H 200EMA providing support on multiple occasions and keeping the HTF trend bullish. Both of these price action movements creating a bit of a stalemate/ chop. Looking closely to see which pattern gets broken first. So far any pullback we have seen has been more of a leverage flush than a sustained pullback, V-shaped recoveries as entities such as BlackRock completely absorb any sell pressure. However, we did see a drop in IBIT inflows that were unable to absorb Greyscales GBTC outflows , leading to negative volume and a drop in price. I think if we could see an S/R flip of the previous ATH it would give the greenlight to the rest of the market to continue moving up. Historically a pre-halving dump is normal, a ~20% correction is normal. If we don't flip that S/R level a sweep of the $58K area is not off the table but the closer we get to the halving the less likely that is to happen in my opinion. The altcoin market pulled back with BTC with a few exceptions as usual. Narrative plays like RWA enjoying gains as BlackRock prepare for their $10TRILLION Tokenisation vision starting by depositing $100m USDC on the ETHEREUM blockchain. . This week focusing on ETH based RWA projects for longer term holds could be a good plan to try and front run BlackRock buying. BITCOIN is obviously the main focus as it needs to continue its bullish trend so that the rest of the market can continue to rally. 25 Days to The Halving This weeks focus: - BTC S/R Flip - ETH RWA's
by ProR35
2
18/03/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $73775.8 Last weeks low: $69170.3 Midpoint: $64564.9 After making consecutive new ATH's Bitcoin has now experienced it's first prolonged pullback. Before these last few days we saw each dip as more of a leverage flush with a near instant V-shaped recovery. This however is more of a traditional pullback, the main level of note is the previous cycles ATH of SWB:69K . The MIDPOINT now signifies that level and for me and on the HTF a potential Swing Fail Pattern (SFP) . If we do see a clear rejection off SWB:69K This could be the start of one of Bitcoins signature 30% Bullrun pullbacks to punish late longers and any unexperienced retail holders. This would see price drop to FWB:52K area. Personally I think leverage flushes are going to be common place as they always are and we are due a routine pullback, A pre-halving pullback occurred in the previous halving, -20% before rallying post halving. If we assume history will repeat itself then that would see price fill the large wick at GETTEX:59K from the previous flush, entirely possible in my opinion. As for the bulls, the ETF'S have been buying up any sellside pressure since the beginning of the calendar year and with the halving only ~30 days away it's hard to see Bitcoins price being allowed to fall as what is essentially a land grab is going on, there are simply too many buyers. The Nvidia AI conference begins today! Monday until Thursday and the crypto space is anticipating volatility to come from this event. Projects such as RNDR, FET, NEAR and other AI & DePIN tokens are expected to be impacted the most. The question is always going to be is this a sell the news event? The AI space has rallied significantly in the previous months however I would say that company with a valuation of $2.2T, (roughly 50% more than the entire market cap of Bitcoin) , bringing attention to these crypto projects and at least making the link between the two is a positive for the industry and can only bring more attention and money to the space.
by ProR35
2
11/03/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $69934.6 Last weeks low: $64483.4 Midpoint: $59032.3 Bitcoin experiences its highest ever weekly close in history falling just shy of $70K . The previous ATH tested and bested multiple times during the previous week and broken yet again already this week hitting $72K ! The Market Cap has overtaken Silver to become the 8th largest asset by MCap . We are now in price discovery territory and ~38 days away from The Halving . Blackrock continues to buy and now closes in on MicroStrategy who has been accumulating since August 2020. MicroStrategy recently bought another 12,000BTC to stay in the lead but it looks like BlackRock will inevitably overtake them in holdings. BlackRock: 2 Months - 195,985 MicroStrategy: 42 Months - 205,000 Bitcoin has maintained its march onwards and Ethereum still lags behind. A close eye on ETH/BTC pair shows that on the 1W 200EMA is now flipped to support after breaking out of a multi-year channel since May '21 . ETH after broking $4K ~20% away from ATH. Altcoins along with Ethereum are still lagging as BTC dominance continues to rise, however it doesn't necessary mean BTC is a better investment, once BTC dominance looks to have topped, the Altseason will allow Altcoins to catch up. This week we continue to monitor the progress of the crypto market on the leadup to The Halving .
by ProR35
2
03/03/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $64271.5 Last weeks low: $57579.4 Midpoint: $50887.4 BITCOIN ATH IS IN SIGHT! A crazy final week of February closing the monthly candle with a record single candle gain in the history of Bitcoin! A +52.8% gain in a single month ($22,134.20) . This price action has lead us to a situation that has never been seen before in this markets relatively short history... Never has BTC broken its previous ATH before The Halving , yet the we are currently -5% away from ATH with approximately 49 days to The Halving . With new institutional buyers involved in this cycle it is clear the schedule for what we have become used to has been sped up significantly and we can now expect for the ATH to be broken even before the mining reward gets cut in half! Another metric that can be used to gauge our progress in the cycle is general sentiment and retail interest . So far the news cycle is quiet about crypto and the standard retail investors that general give a top signal are nowhere to be seen currently. This is all very bullish for the space and indicated room to grow. For this week I will be planning how to preserve my capital and manage my greed accordingly. As it stands the FEAR AND GREED INDEX is 86 which should be taken into account. I do think once BTC breaks past its previous ATH the news will start to cover more stories about BITCOIN which could also bring retail investors to the table, maybe they forgot about their spot positions they bought at the peak of the last cycle and would look to cash out at break even and therefor increase selling pressure? That may not happen but planning for it helps in case it is a sell the news event. My general thoughts for this Bullrun remain the same a buy and hold strategy will outperform the day trader but -30% flushes are perfectly normal in these conditions so it's always important have some cash in reserve to add to narrative plays.
by ProR35
26/02/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $52994.8 Last weeks low: $51757.7 Midpoint: $50520.6 Another big week in the world of crypto! As predicted BTC has been ranging consistently between the local high of 53k and the support of 50k . Since Bitcoin has been moving sideways we have seen profits rotating into ETH sending it above 3K and the broader altcoin market. We see this regularly in market cycles as capital trickles down the market cap leader board. Now it seems the ETH/BTC pair is looking more bullish we could potentially see further chop for BTC as it builds a base for the next leg and allow alts to play catch up for a short time. This week I believe there may be some buying opportunities as some of the indicators reset and the key moving averages help to support price, the 4H 200EMA being the key one for altcoins. Bitcoin remains bullish over the 48K level, under that and I think we see a flush/ deleveraging event going into the halving which is less than 2 months away now. We have seen a few times recently just how quickly the market panics when BTC moves even a few % in the negative direction. Exercising caution and protecting funds are so important as the Bullrun is just beginning.
by ProR35