WTI - How will oil react to the elections?!Oil is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. If the descending channel is preserved and its ceiling is not broken, we can witness the continuation of the oil decline up to the midline of the descending channel. Breaking the ceiling of the channel and the resistance range will provide the way for oil to rise to $75.
A member of Trump’s campaign stated that victory in Michigan and Pennsylvania is nearly certain. Meanwhile, Fox News has predicted that Trump will win the U.S. presidential election.
According to information from three informed sources, the United States and Saudi Arabia are in talks for a security agreement that would be independent of any broader agreement with Israel. This agreement is not aimed at achieving a comprehensive defense pact; however, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the White House wish to reach a security deal before President Biden’s term ends in January.
Prior to Hamas’s attacks on Israel on October 7, the Biden administration was in discussions with Saudi Arabia and Israel for a broader agreement that included normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel. This agreement would have involved a U.S.-Saudi defense pact and civilian nuclear cooperation, which the White House believed had a higher chance of Senate approval.
However, the outbreak of conflict in Gaza and Lebanon and Saudi Arabia’s demand for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state delayed these negotiations. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s national security advisor, Musaad bin Mohammed Al Aiban, traveled to Washington last week and met with U.S.
national security advisor Jake Sullivan and other officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Their discussions focused on U.S.-Saudi bilateral relations and a series of security, technological, and economic agreements they aim to sign before Biden’s term ends.
This security agreement was separate from efforts for a broader deal that included normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The initial plan is to draft an agreement similar to what the Biden administration has signed with other Gulf countries in recent years. For instance, in March 2022, Qatar was recognized as a major non-NATO ally, and in September 2023, the U.S. and Bahrain signed a comprehensive security agreement.
Over the past four years, the Biden administration has sought to curb the growing influence of China and Russia in the Gulf region. U.S. officials have indicated that several countries previously leaning towards China and interested in purchasing strategic systems from Russia have now moved closer to the U.S.
The OPEC Secretary-General has stated that the global economy is in good condition and estimates global economic growth at 2.9%. OPEC holds an optimistic view of oil demand in both the short and long term. Although there are challenges, the overall picture is not as negative as some suggest. The OPEC Secretary-General believes that peak oil demand will not occur and that the global economy continues to grow.
