ANOTHER BUYER FOR $WFM ???FOR THE LAST WEEK WFM HAS BEEN TRADING ABOVE THE $42 ALL CASH OFFER FOR WHOLE FOODS.
I AM TAKING THE VIEW THAT WHEN A STOCK IS CONSISTENTLY ABOVE THE OFFER PRICE (ESPECIALLY IN
AN ALL CASH BID) THAT THERE ARE OTHERS INTERESTED IN THE COMPANY. THE STORY HAS GOTTEN A LOT OF
ATTENTION AND THERE ARE SEVERAL OTHER COMPANIES WHO COULD USE THIS (NOW THAT IT HAS RECEIVED
ALL THIS ATTENTION) COMPANY AS A STEPPING STONE OR EVEN JUST TO GAIN A FOOTHOLD IN THE GROCERY
MARKET. THOSE RUN FROM WMT, TGT, OR ANY OF THE "REAL GROCERY CHAINS" LIKE KR.
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THIS IS A LOW RISK TRADE WITH THIS ONE SELLING FOR ONLY $ .50 OVER THE CASH BID.
LAST, BUT NOT LEAST, THIS IS A PRETTY LOW BID BASED ON WHERE THE STOCK HAS BEEN ($57 IN EARLY 2015)
AND IT MAKES THIS LOOK LIKE A VERY LOW-COST SPECULATION OF A HIGHER BID.
I'M BUYING BOTH THE STOCK AND THE WFM 8/43 CALLS ($ .41)...OZ
WFM
Long $COST on overreaction Long Costco on market overreaction to 170 and I'll leave some on and aim for 180.
WFM worthing watching for April2017 Whole Foods has multiple 10% swings and upcoming resistance lines may be a 10-20% short opportunity
Range trading with upside breakout potential.Technically Speaking
A clear range has formed since September of 2015, roughly 26-35. Price is near the bottom of the range as this goes to publish(28.93). A simple strategy would be to buy 26, sell 35.
I would however like to point out that above 35/36, supply is very thin until the 58 handle.
Fundamentals
The most important variable I handicap for when analyzing a stock is the likelihood I will LOSE all my money, not volatility. Even though I am a "technical" trader, I do like to try to estimate the probability of a position going to zero. This usually happens via bankruptcy or the companies products become obsolete, think Blackberry.
You can view the companies fundamentals here-https://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AWFM&fstype=ii&ei=Aq7-V4nBIdrmeqKBuIgO
Bottom Line
To me, buying at the bottom of the range, stopping out on a weekly close below 28. You could either take profits at the top of the range, if it gets there, or hold. The biggest gains, I have found, come from holding trades. I would hold for a break above 35 and see what happens. You could always move your stop to b/e or lock in profits.
THE COMING WEEK (10/31): VIX>15; GILD, WFM, BABA EARNINGSWith VIX popping to >15 on Friday, my usual pattern is to rotate out of individual underlyings and into broad market instruments like SPY/SPX, IWM/RUT, etc. VIX ended the day at 16.2, and it could naturally settle back below 15, so I need to be prepp'd for either selling premium in broad index instruments if VIX sticks in there above 15 or playing a few higher volatility individuals around earnings if VIX friskiness fades.
I did hastily slap on an IWM, 3-wide iron condor in a December expiry on Friday, but wouldn't mind slapping on some more if this isn't the end of it for pre-election jitter volatility since I have virtually nothing on in broad-index plays.
For earnings alternatives, I'm looking for volatility contraction plays where the implied volatility is high in the range and high "in the background". Unfortunately, >70% 52-week high implied volatility rank and >50% implied volatility plays have been few and far between, so I've tweaked my screener to look for rank >70% over the preceding 6 months, as opposed to 52-weeks. Even then, only GILD, WFM, and BABA pop up as having a rank >60 (I'm being a little picky here, confining myself to the most liquid option plays), and those don't have a background implied volatility of >50%, so I'm unlikely to play any of those in the absence of a last minute pop in volatility.
Nevertheless, I will keep an eye on them "just in case" ... .
WFM/WMT: Pair trade setupWe can take a pair trade here. Let's enter long WFM/WMT.
Basically, we'd consider risk per share, to determine the amount of shares to long and short on each leg of the pair, but not use any stop loss. Profit will result from WFM outperforming WMT in the coming months.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
$WFM falling wedge to box ready for breakout$WFM daily shows a falling wedge attempting to break out. However, a darvus box has developed to contain the breakout (for now). Looks ready to pop w/ several gaps still open above.
WFM. Correction finished. Longs favoredWe got a very nice 61.8% correction with the expanding ending diagonal in wave 5 of (C).
First move up and first retracement are already in place.
Good to long.
WFM: Interesting long setup viableWe can enter longs in WFM here, back at weekly mode support, as well as a Key Earnings Level.
Since Vix is high we can sell puts at the money for easy returns, for instance, December expiry puts or calls.
We can take a long stock/short calls position alternatively, but puts should be a good idea for sure.
Buy/write: 35 strike calls / Jan '17 20th expiry. Determine the amount of shares based on stop distance, risk 0.5-1%.
Write: at the money puts with same expiry.
Good luck!
Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance0.57% on such information.
SOLD WFM MAY 13TH 25.5/31 SHORT STRANGLESold this earlier today, but can't get onto Dough currently for the metrics ... .
In any event, filled for $85/contract. I'll look to take it off for 50% max profit in the volatility contraction post-earnings.
WFM: Potential double bottom ahead of earningsWe have an interesting setup here. We can try a pair trade where we'd short WMT and long the same amount of WFM, or we can simply go long WFM, either buying stock or trading bullish option strategies ahead of earnings.
If trading stock, you can use my suggested stop loss location.
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
WFM, divergence started playing nowif the price move to over 35 level or penetrates down to the short term red line then there is a selling opportunity.
The Fresh Market - TFM - Back to the Bargain Bin - BuyHere is my chart from 9 months ago when TFM was in the low $30's prior to the run up over $40. I only added that TFM is the cheapest it has been so far. It is consistently profitable and total revenues continue to grind ahead.
You want to buy these quality stocks when others are selling and when they represent great value.
It's time again to back up the truck and load up on some TFM shares and look for a 5%-10% gain over the next 3-6 months. If it gets cheaper still, I will keep adding to the position.
Stay tuned.
Tim 31.98 last TFM May 22, 2015 1:42PM EST
Long WFM on 50 SMA crossover close ?Good risk to reward opportunity in WFM. I would go Long with an end of day confirmation of a close above 38.70. Stop at previous Wednesday's close of 37.88. Target would be a challenge of mid June highs at around 43.
Reward : +4
Risk : -1.12
WFM, the market is big enough for everybody.I just don't buy the argument that the organic food industry is too saturated and competitive for Whole Foods to remain relevant. There's just so many people out there, the market is big enough for all the players to book profit and prosper.
